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The Confounding Markets.....
Yet another week where stocks defy fundamentals, Wells Fargo running wild, furniture stocks like ETH hitting new 52-week highs. Looks like another resumption of "Dash for Trash" in the making. Perhaps the "Affliction" flatbillers will re-emerge at Starbucks to daytrade single digit midgets.
Markets are now reaching the "Do or Die" point.
Pass or fail??
And the top performing sector is retail? Less than 10% off all-time, world record highs??
Unfortunately I'm still in lockdown mode in a conference room for the next couple of weeks, so today I'll let my buddy Rasputin do the talking...
Rasputin - Tue, Mar 2, 2010 - 08:25 AM
"It was one year ago that Citi and BofA were collapsing and stock markets were careening off of a cliff.
It was a scant year and one-half ago, in September, 2008, that
Fannie, Freddie, FHLBs, Lehman, AIG, and virtually every single Wall
Street gambler imploded.
It was two years ago that Bear Stearns went down in flames.
And ten years ago that the Internet/telecom/Enron immolation took place.
Twelve years ago when Russia defaulted, setting off the LTCM neutron bomb.
Thirteen years ago when the "Asian Crisis" was gonna scroom us all.
It was twenty years ago that almost every S&L went belly-up.
Twenty-three years ago that the Dow collapsed TWENTY-SOMETHING PERCENT IN ONE DAY!
Thirty years ago when Chrysler went bankrupt and required a then-unprecedented one billion fiatsco bailout.
It was also thirty years ago when Uncle Gorilla first hit the trillion-fiatsco debt mark.
Finally, it was nearly forty years ago that Nixon took the world off of the last vestiges of a gold standard.
(Ras Conclusion): Despite these myriad, horrid, 'convulsions", the
world has skipped along on its merry way, the sheeple continue to
borrow and spend, the U.S. hasn't collapsed, stock markets arw being
re-skied, Uncle is running up tens of trillions of debt, interest rates
are at near-historical lows and bears/GHSers/SHSers (gold and silver bugs) have once again
been left behind as the "Infinite Fiatsco Parade" marches inexorably
forward.
Roach, Fekete, Gross, the Comstock boys...this massive missive quotes every perma-gloomer this side of Mogambo Guru and goes into deep detail regarding:
"This can't go on!"
...yet go on it does, day-after-week-after-month-after-year-after-decade, no matter how large or frequent the "convulsions".
Believe me, I know. Having embarassed myself in front of my Boomer peers with numerous screechings of:
"This it!"
"This can't go on even one more minute"
"Stocks are gonna continue to crash"
"The U.S. fiatsco is finished!"
"Interest rates to da moon!"
...and other, incorrect, dire warnings, I have finally learned to
stop worrying and love Infinite Fiat/Wash, Rinse, Repeat cycles.
In any event, the U.S. is having a heck of a time killing the U.S.
nightcrawler because the euro is beating it in "the race to the bottom"
and China has pegged their yuan to ours.
Nothing changes. Same criminals in charge. Same corrupt system.
LOL.
(Update): Just to show you how bogus and corrupt this so-called
"recovery" really is, have a gander at these Federal Reserve charts
provided by Mish:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/im-sure-glad-recession-ended.html
(Ras): Do any one of those categories even remotely resemble an economic recovery?
Heh, I rest my case."
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The Bulls love people like us, it seems. Teaser event after teaser event,,, Iceland, Latvia Dubai, Greece, UK and US debt etc...appear to be thrown under the bus/carpet like those charts. It's tiring to withstand the foray of talking heads, pundits, bankers and politicians unless you stnd behind your fundamental view and position yourself accordingly. Once you do that, you gain peace and a round of golf. That's what I'm doin'!
There is nothing confounding about end of month window dressing. This is the end of a confounding bear market rally... Its a double top, when it falls apart "they" will put it all on Barack.
And the manipulation continues.... Will this ever end.... Crude oil 4.5mm build and up 2%. Copper trading 3.45. The longer this goes on the more I want it to crash and burn.
But will they have CNBC streaming at the homeless shelter of my choice??? This is can-do America, right??? I can't do without being brainwashed everyday if I am going to continue to be out of work and thrown out of my tiny condo. It takes the pain and sickness away.....
I feel your pain guys. Everyday I ask myself, "will I go back in and short this crazy over-valued market?" But I have been burned too many times of late. I have pretty much decided to stay cash, let it crash, then cruize back in the aftermath. She is gonna blow, I just am not going to let these f*%ckers steal anymore of my money. A flakey friend of mine who is really into astrology, says that there is supposed to be some type of alignment in the sky this summer called the cardinal climax that is exactly the same formation as the last big stock market crash in the 30's. She said July 27-30th. Maybe if the market doesn't correct before then, I will lay down some money on a wild ass bet.
Maybe another "get out in May and stay away" omen? SDS is close to its all-time low, so why not get a small position, be patient, and see what happens?
I kept hearing get out in December, then Get out in March...now its get out in May?
Thats why my name is what it is ... A Broken bear :(
You may want to keep an eye on the weekend updates by MMACYCLES.COM. I'd say Ray Merriman is probably among the better financial astrologers. If that's your cup of tea.
And the trillions pile up to quadrillions and the whole fiat scheme keeps working, until it doesn't. Then we wake up and find ourselves with a brand new one world currency, along with "one world governance", which is then summarily co-opted by a strongman dictator into a one world government. But, no worries, you can trade in your shiny gold and silver coins for a few credits and a place to live and maybe even a job, as long as they put that UPC code inside your body somewhere! As the Church Lady would say, "How Special!"
Can I suggest a movie? I found it told me what I needed to know.
"How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Listen to Martin Armstrong"
When I was a kid I was playing aroung with some firecrackers and bundled a bunch of them together in hopes of a glorious display of my pyrotechnic skills. I eagerly lit the fuse to this mini A-bomb and ran as fast as I could to a safe location - behind my dad's new buick, and waited. And waited and waited for what seemed like a sure thing - the fuse burnt down all the way and yet - nothing. I was confident in my finely honed fireworks skills and assured myself that at any second this massive eruption of sound and fury would be known to the entire neighborhood. Seconds became minutes, and I grew more and more frustrated, and eventually succombed to the idea that something was wrong in boomtown. I approached the intimidating bundle of paper and powder and gingerly held my dad's Zippo to the stump of a fuse, but before I even flicked the lighter - Brrrraaaaappp! I still have a ringing in my left ear to remind me - the fuse is lit, be patient and don't get burned again!
You should try a bonfire and can of spray paint next time. A loud bang and a large fireball turning into a black smoke mushroom will make you a hero to the neighborhood kids.
I expect the same from this market, to keep it on topic...
Shoot a tracer into a line of ether starting fluid cans.
Feel your pain Ras
I stepped back in October '09 ...
http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2009/10/long-finger-of-instability-from-hand-or.html
The retail sector says it all. The dice are loaded, and the market will rise on weakening currencies. Gold and silver snitches.
Extend and pretend can last a long time.
But "crude build" is the wrong statistic. Global oil production is the correct statistic.
You can't print oil.
HEAT had a nice move this morning. Other than that, I'm gonna take up yoga until this market changes.
http://www.holytaco.com/25-hot-yoga-babes
Um.....er...OM
Have faith Rasputin, the end is nigh.
This is the first credit recession since the Great Depression, and it WILL NOT be solved by cons, papering over, fraud, and lies.
As much information that is flung about the most important is captured in this chart:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/uploads/debt-trend-breakdown_2.jpg
Just look at the above graphic every week or so, and know that the worst is before us.
It is finally O V ER...
If Greed is good, get greedy on the inverse ETFs
Trust me I am no bull and I expect a crash so I am inline with the 0Hers
Regarding the 2007 highs and today the market may go much higher, Interest rates are at much lower rates than 2007 and many companies much more leaner and money printing all over the shop, I expect a fall big time but this bull market may last a while yet for me. Shorting will pay off but let the trend reverse its still up so dont fight the trend just yet ride it with stops or cash.
The only confounding thing is that failed contrarian 'robot trader' still gets a daily bitch on the forums about stocks going up. Find a new purpose in life.
If his bitching bothers you so much, why are you here reading them???
I love this line:
Nothing changes. Same criminals in charge. Same corrupt system.
So true, so true.
market is 40% overvalued - but that adjustment will come through QE
do not expect carnage on a nominal basis
I don't think the 1 Trillion in Bank deposits at the FRB in exchange for MBS is quantitative easing. Money has not been created, ( yet), just the banks and others have been bailed out of trash MBS. Still a lot of debt out there to default. Someone might count that 1 Trillion in bank deposits at the FRB as money, but unless it is actually in the hands of someone who spends it...
From Wikipedia.
The term quantitative easing describes an extreme form of monetary policy used to stimulate an economy when the interbank rate, which in the US is called the federal funds rate is either at, or close to, zero. In practical terms, the central bank purchases financial assets (mostly short-term), including government paper and corporate bonds, from financial institutions (such as banks) using money it has created ex nihilo (out of nothing
Thanks for my new favorite term: ex nihilo
A little background: I was a broker at PW in the late 70's and early 80's. Been through a number of market ups and downs in the last 30 years. Here's what I have been doing in this weird market. I manage several accounts, the biggest is 240k. I basically buy blocks of stocks in lots of 1000, and then sell calls against the position. Up through last November it was nearly all in gold mining stocks ABX,NEM,and FCX. In November, ABX and NEM were called away, representing more than 1/2 the account. I picked up a position in EAT, and wrote calls against that position, and still holding it. The rest, thinking the market was way over-blown, put in a position on SDS, of 2900 shares. Probably a little early. Thinking I'd hedge the position, sold the DEC 40 calls at a nice premium, and they expired. A little downdraft, wrote the Jan 40's, which expired. Then wrote the FEB 40's after a little downdraft, and those expired. So far, up 8k on the expires, and down 17k on the SDS. Being patient, and knowing this sucker market looks ugly, I wrote the JAN 2011 130's. My other 1/2 has risen in value, and probably will called away, or collapse in value. Only time will tell. Most of these bastards doing this to our country need to be drawn and quartered. I will always stay in the market, cuz it's the only game in town.
errrrr.... The sheeple have stopped borrowing, and they spend the increased transfer payments, which means the only thing holding the economy up is the 1.4 Trillion dollar a year deficit.
Meanwhile, month after month the Non seasonally adjusted full time jobs go down.
Welcome to the new world of an economy needing fewer and fewer workers.
If a picture says a thousand words, these charts are worth a library:
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/economic-reality-check.html
If they continue providing unlimited funds to bankers that we will pay interest for through taxes, yet they do not loan out to businesses and also pay nothing back to depositors in the form of interest despite their true financial state (FDIC and banks have poor balance sheets so this is a poor risk/return scenario) we will collapse as good money flees the system overseas and goes into physical gold and silver. That's why body scanners are wanted at airports, there is a concern with capital flight.
It really is common sense, an economist should write a paper on it and collect a nobel prize. You pay taxes and interest to the same groups although there are multiple agency and corporate fronts. If you intend to pick the pockets of everyone, you need a police state to protect the looters. The sole purpose of the law should exist to protect private property and prevent plunder NOT preventing private property and protecting plunder. If everyone defaults on their mortgages and banks are backstopped by the government, the banks will eventually own everything by turning intangible loans into physical land and home ownership and increase rents. Think control rather than financials.
For the last 10 years FIRE profits have grown dramatically at the expense of other industries with the exception of health care and both require reform (health care needs to focus on prevention instead of treating symptoms with pharmaceuticals and Obamacare looks like a back room lobbyist prize giveaway masquerading as reform).
Finance is unfortunately starting to look like an organized, coordinated gypsy pick pocketing ring operating internationally. We need to protect the finance industry from themselves, they are killing the host while lining their pockets and will end up just as destitute if we don't have balance across our sectors and industries. Madoff said Mary Shapiro was a dear friend, while Harry Markopolos said "Don't Trust Your Government" because he tried to expose Madoff with four separate complaints with no action and feared for his life.
Capital flight? ... where in the hell would you go? ... the USA will be the last man standing ... take your gold to Denver
The Fed bankers print money and loan it to the USA government. The USA government pays the Fed bankers interest on that money. The USA government taxes American workers to get money to pay the interest.
At the same time, the USA government loans money to the Fed bankers to "bail them out" after they lost big, gambling on mortgage-backed securities. The USA government DOES NOT charge the Fed bankers interest on that money.
So what we have is American workers paying taxes to GIVE the Fed bankers money, in return for nothing. Also, at the same time, the Fed bankers are awarding themselves million-dollar bonuses. Also, the MSM, the Senators and Congressmen (especially "conservative" ones), and the Chambers of Commerce are calling this "freedom" and "capitalism".
Did great until the Conservative crack.
dailyjobcuts.com keeps my perspective straight !!