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A Confused Summer Market With Bounty On It
Submitted by Nic Lenoir
A relatively uninspiring trading session as the market opened down and traded in a narrow range all day. Volume was a bit better than observed recently for equities and given the fact the move had no legs to the downside it would make me think we had bulls buying today's pull back and we could well see the market trade up tomorrow. This is in line with our observations for the Bund where the market has just retested the breakout level to the downside at 133.25 today and failed to bypass. Short term more pressure on Bunds can be expected as long as the level is not violated (risk reward is good to enter positions here).
That also would be in line with our thoughts on Friday as the market does not look toppish just yet. HOWEVER, Vix posted a very key bullish reversal ouside the lower bollinger band. Over the last two years, this has been a bearish signal for equities 100% of the time. In January the top in price lagged the low in Volatility by 7 business days, and the lag was 10 business days in April. Buyers beware, you have one or two weeks of fun, and after that comes a strong bearish move which will take the market lower than 1,000 in S&P futures. We will be very carefully following bearish divergence for equity indices to confirm this major signal.
A break of support for AUDJPY, AUDUSD, or Bovespa would all be indications that the top in price is behind us so we will also keep a close eye on those as we try to pin the top. Finger is on the trigger and the gun is loaded, this time it will be for real. Be sure that the next two weeks will be as confusing as can be in terms of price as a top is formed and hobby bears are taken out before the actual flush while the market sucks in a fresh batch of bulls.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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Staircase to sudden unexpected out of the blue inflation Tyler?
i may have to eat my words later but i dont see the stocks going down while gold goes up longer term. we could use a deflation so all the pompous assholes are forced to get a real job and stop stealing from everyone to make themselves feel special but that aint gonna happen. the free money they keep printing will inflate everything and gold the most. we are in the second dip already, the first one happened in 2001/02.
TZA all the way down!
DOW/S&P500/FTSE/EURO short signal continues :
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
A lower SPX high works just as well as all that rambling about nonexistent retail kooks and currencies.
Poor Nic, stuck in the 20th Century when they had markets that one could hope to analyze with price charts to determine entry and exits for a market.
Want to drive him crazy? Give him a gasoline chart for the last 24 months and ask him to interpret it using Edwards and McGee.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_chart.gif
I see political risk going to infinity and price volatility going to zero. Too late to get a job with the government, Nic?
Disclosure Statement: Short CFAs and technical analysts. Long jack-boot and arm-band leaps.
I'm from Missouri. Show me. I ain't buying it in this computer driven manipulated market. It will do what the big money players want, not what a chart tells you. Those days are a memory for the time being.
I hear a banjo playing.... Hey, this markets got a pretty mouth... Take off them panties boy...
Yeee-haw!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tqxzWdKKu8
Hey Rocky.
S&P 500 just hit a down trendline from the peaks in April and August as well as the 100 day sma after going parabolic. I like to keep my analysis simple like that.......I don't see what breaks it higher before going lower like you say but I'm just one of those "hobbist" bears in my crop duster minus the sofisticated 747 control panel but she keeps me fed.
Thank you Mr. Lenoir, I learn something from you every day. Still waiting to see if the rejection of 1,100 on the S&P will stick.
Nic your analysis is second to none. Thanks
Nic, how do I contact you. I am interested in doing some investment business with you (via icap I assume?).
I am heavily short right now, and if markets go down, I'll be retiring, and will need some of my money managed for me. Your calls and insight on here have been very impressive, so please get in touch.
Thanks.
If markets go up, then you'll probably want to keep that job. You are a fool to have bet your retirement on margin.
TD........thx for sharing the talent.
I'll be sending my donation V Soon........and passing the hat like a good Catholic......well, you know.
not true. the fuckers at the top (illuminati) may be eugenicists, but they absolutely adore fractals... a fractal fetish..
skynet also adores fractals, but from a completely different aesthetic..
Nice article thanks.
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