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Confusion As to New Oil Cap ... Relief Wells Halted
Don Van Nieuwenhuise - director of geosciences programs at the
University of Houston - gives the best summary of what is happening with
BP's new effort to stop the oil gusher.
Van Nieuwenhuise points
out:
- There is probably damage to the well bore under the sea
floor
- BP is performing acoustic tests (bouncing
sound waves down beneath the seafloor) to try to detect any leaks in the
subsurface
- BP will gradually close more and more
vents to gradually increase the pressure within the well bore (like
gradually covering more and more of your garden hose, so that more
pressure builds up in the hose)
BP
will perform a "well integrity test", shutting off the oil flow out of
the cap, and then seeing how much pressure builds up below.
The
more pressure the better ... because that would mean that there are no
major leaks beneath the seafloor. By way of analogy, a good way to see
if you have any leaks in your garden hose is to cover up the nozzle and
see if water goes shooting out someplace else.
The government
official in charge of the response to the oil spill - Coast Guard
admiral Thad Allen - confirmed today that:
- A 1.5 mile
“seismic run” was conducted to detect “anything that might happen with
the sea floor” from the well integrity test
- You
“could make the case that there’s some structural integrity issues with
the casing of the wellbore”
Oil
industry expert Rob Cavner - who previously explained
that there is damage in the oil well beneath the seafloor, and that BP
has to let the oil spill keep on gushing to avoid further damage to the
well bore until the well can be killed with relief wells (subsequently confirmed
by BP) - says that he is worried that the well integrity test could
further damage the well bore and could blow out the entire well:
So
how are things going so far?
how are things going so far?
BP has delayed the well
integrity test.
As the Wall Street Journal notes:
The
start of BP PLC’s (BP) crucial integrity test of the leaking Gulf of
Mexico oil well has been delayed until at least Wednesday, the U.S.
official leading the disaster response said.
Adm. Thad
Allen, the
former U.S. Coast Guard chief, said he had taken the decision to delay
the test after meetings with Energy Secretary Steven Chu, a Nobel
Prize-winning physicist, and other top experts.
“As a
result of
these discussions, we decided that the process may benefit from
additional analysis that will be performed tonight and tomorrow,” Allen
said in as statement.
AP also
notes that engineers are mapping subsurface dangers like gas pockets.
Rather
than a one-day delay, as was being reported yesterday, AP notes that
this
is an "if-when" situation:
"Our basic
position was, if you can give us the answers we need ... then go
ahead," the [anonymous government] official said. Until then, "they
can't go forward."
The official
stressed that the
government was acting out of "an abundance of caution" and still hopes
the temporary cap can be placed on the well.
Hopefully,
today's delay does not mean that
substantial leaks have been found below the level of the seafloor, and
hopefully Cavner's fears that the tests will blow out the well bore are
unfounded.
But because BP has consistently suppressed
information as long as possible, we won't know for some time. Remember,
BP suspended the "top kill" operation for 16 hours - because,
according to numerous experts, it
was creating more damage to the
well bore - without
even telling the media, local officials or the public that it had
even delayed the effort until long afterwards.
Indeed, even BP
hasn't been sounding all that confident about a well
integrity test. From another AP story:
"Everybody
hope and pray that we are seeing high pressures here," said senior BP
vice president Kent Wells.
***
The
integrity test,
however, was not without danger and Wells admitted that pressure caused
by closing the valves too quickly on the cap could send oil shooting
up from a new leak on the sea floor.
"The
worst-case scenario is that it could actually broach back to the sea
floor," Wells said.
But perhaps most importantly,
work on the relief wells has been halted during the pending completion
of the
well integrity test. As CNN notes
:
Work on two relief wells — seen as the ultimate
solution to the oil disaster — was suspended.
Wells said work on the first relief well, expected to be
completed
in August, was delayed while officials prepare for the integrity test
out of an abundance of caution. It is possible, though unlikely, that shutting in the
well
as part of the integrity test could cause the back side of the relief
well to be blown out, Wells said.
“It’s a good
precaution to take at this time,” he said. However, the delay will set
the relief well progress back by one to two days.
Bloomberg
quotes the frustration of an oil industry expert:
“There
are too many cooks in the kitchen,” said David Pursell, an analyst at
Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. in Houston and a former petroleum
engineer who conducted pressure tests. “Everybody in this process has
said the single and best chance of stopping this flow is the relief
well, and
now they’ve held up the
relief well while they’re figuring out protocol.”
MSNBC
correctly notes that this raises a lot of questions:
If BP
and the government had been forthcoming about the oil spill, we
wouldn't have to guess about what's going on, and we wouldn't worry that
something bad is happening behind the scenes.
But BP and the
government have done everything in their power to cover up the facts. BP has tried to cover up its
blunders by lowballing spill estimates, keeping reporters out of areas hardest hit by the oil
(and see this, this, this
and this) and threatening
to arrest them if they try to take pictures (and see this), hiding
dead birds and other sealife, and using dispersants to hide the
amount of spilled oil (the dispersants are only worsening the damage caused by the spill).
The government is aiding and
abetting the cover-up. See this
and this.
So
we may only know what is going on right now long after the fact, when a
whistleblower spills the beans.
- advertisements -
the medium is the message. bp controls the view, the
view cuts in and out, leading one to see such and such.
and not see whatever is unseen? the narrative is supported
by what is seen. the law suits will reference the video
evidence.
.
please. "have mercy children". "bacon fat". a.w.
.
the android meme must live on. damn the toxicity, full
speed ahead!
Yeah let's talk about censorship and information control people. George Washington posts some absolutely irresponsible drivel absent ANY research, and then when it is obvious that he didn't know what he was talking about ~POOF~ ... like it was never there.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/well-integrity-test-failing
I believe that hemorrhoid medicine was applied.
They might be thinking of using a nuke on this, if you believe the reports that they are testing an EPFCG up in Canada.
Siigh............
I give up........
It is been proved impossible to eliminate the last roach once there is a infestation. they just keep showing up.
BP live-Tweeting the CG briefing:
http://twitter.com/BP_America
Interesting Oil Drum pondering on how all capping attempts to date have been about avoiding nailing down a flow-volume number (and theatrics/optics, of course).
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6726#comment-676576
Really detailed, technical summary post on the known effects of dispersants:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6724
On the upside for BP, if (heaven forbid) the close-in process should (further) rupture the wellbore/casing, they can claim that it was a result of the gov't decision, and can also claim that there is no way to calculate the flow prior to said catastrophe.
Live feeds from Skandi ROV1 & 2 suggest they have begun the well testing procedure. Well is flowing from side valves. Difficult to tell but it appears not to be flowing from top at this time. Is this why thye postponed the BP briefing - so they could announce it????
What site do you watch it on, I've been using this one, which is pretty good as they have it in Flash, Windows and even that self refreshing image thing.
http://www.bp.com/sectionbodycopy.do?categoryId=9034366&contentId=7063636
is the site I'm watching. Only a couple are up at the moment.
they changed that BP site so all of the feeds are autostart, draws huge bandwidth and/or blows up my computer i.e. they could let the viewer choose which feeds to activate. I think they did that on purpose.
I guess that explains the crappy network performance I get when I have it up.......
Low-impact summary page with static thumbnails auto-refreshing every 60 seconds (clicking opens live stream):
http://data.plan9.de/akamai-bp-streams.html
I think the streams themselves must be under a lot of traffic stress as well.
I just watch it on the BP video feed site sub/ BP.com
I think the reason they postponed the briefing was because they were waiting on a decision from the govt. brain trust and probably had nothing to brief absent that decision. As it turns out, they apparently got a decision at about 16:30 CDT and went right at it. Haven't checked but I'm assuming there is a 17:00 briefing taking place now.
OBammie announced weeks ago that the Govt. was in charge. BP cannot do anything without Govt. approval. The current delay in drilling is a result of the Chu team of academics asking for experiments. they had to shut down the drilling for the accoustics on the experiments. Then had to get the other ships out of the area. These folks are really going to create a bigger problem if they don't get the relief well to the next casing point before they start palying around with delays and an open bore hole.
News out 30 minutes ago that BP got the go-ahead to pressure test the well. Will be interesting to see what happens.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2010/07/bp-get-ok-to-pressure-test-new-cap-to-stop-gulf-oil-spill/1
Flow in the main bore shut off and oil venting out choke and kill. Can be verified via liave ROV video.
Thad says the max pressure from top kill was 6000 psi - why could we not get more pressure?
We didn't understand what it meant. Was there a breach?
LA Times asks
Thad are you concerned about the potential for cratering if /when you close of the well during this test, even if it's just for a very brief period of time?
Thad says we spent a great deal of time talking about that but the geology of the area is such that we don't see it as a risk.
(I expect the transcript of the briefing should be available shortly)
The well was leaking from the cracked BOP and out of the riser. I believe they stopped because it was eroding the BOP leak and it was obvious from the gauges that they were not gong to get the job done that way.
Reuters to Thad
Do you feel really confident because cause yesterday you were gungho and then put the brakes on.
Thad: Committee decided to take 24 hours to make sure
Committee: Do we have a solution that will work?
Techie: Nothing is for certain. We're willing to try some tests.
Committee: And you want us to give you the go ahead to try something iffy that might not work?
Techie: Um ... yes.
Committee: But if it fails, we'll look like we didn't study it enough.
Techie: Study wouldn't help anyway since we're off the map here. And the tests will add important data.
Committee: This has nothing to do with maps or data. Delay the testing so it looks like we gave it additional thought.
Techie: Nobody is going to spend 2 seconds giving this any more thoughtt.
Committee: That's fine, you don't have to. Take a breather, tomorrow we'll issue a statement saying that we really gave it some thought.
Techie: 60,000 additional barrels of crude will end up in the GoM.
Committee: We're fine with that. None of us live anywhere near there. We checked in on the map.
OH MY GAWD - it IS a committee. 24 hours more filth in the Gulf because the bureaucrats wanted to "make sure".
NOW I may have to jump on the "it's the end of the world" bandwagon..............
You knew it was going to kill progress when you read that the Chu committee was going to be visiting the site. If you wanted to get a project moving along, would you send a 10 man committee of academics from Washington to study the situation?
Thad says results from Seismic test normal and increased confidence to proceed with the test
since when could a baseline of anything be characterized
as anything other than normal? answer, never. something
is wrong with the words being used here, no? the new seismic
run was not a "baseline" of anything. it was a check from
an existing baseline. but the most curious thing is what information is available in the mud logs of the relief wells.?
no information available from this data? not for the public?
was "product" found? where and how much? concentrations?
correlated to the seismic and a picture, or pictures, in time
emerge. not for the public, proprietary.
an we all saw what normal got Dr.Frederick
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ_pKqiB5Rg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86kjTG3tSwg
. "have mercy children". a.w.
Translation: "Now that we've done some confusing technical stuff to make it appear that we know WTF we're doing, we can proceed to screw things up worse than they are with the ready excuse that it was an act of God. It's all God's fault. What was He thinking anyway, putting oil so deep under water? What a screwball."
That statement just confuses me more. What the hell were they doing? Was it just to prove to "the committee" that there hadn't been massive leakage already?
They were listening for underground leaks from the well. Saying that the seismic tests were normal is the formal way of saying they heard what they expected to hear. They didn't hear things that would signal oil was leaking from the well underground. This increased their confidence level that they could turn off the flow of oil completely without damaging things underground. They have blocked the flow of oil out of the well completely now. But they will continue checking pressures at 6-hour intervals, just to be sure.
RichardP - if they were listening for leaks I would have thought they would have run a borehole tool in the relief wells. I'm not aware of any reason you'd bring in a boat of the type they used for that. That boat acquires seismic profiles. I won't swear I couldn't be missing something but I suspect they were looking for gas that had leaked into uphole sands.
It is Chu baby on a mission from Obammie that has caused a full day setback.
just now
they will go ahead with the pressure test but have concerns so will be cautious
Thad blames Chu for the delay...Gesundheit!
Two wolves and a lamb arguing over what is for dinner.
My money is on the oven, unless raw lamb chops are in vogue with the wolves. The oven always wins no matter what.
stupid question - I'm sure there is a very good reason, but why can't they just install equipment and pump the oil? I mean right now their installing manifolds and caps and such...why not blow out preventers and whatever else they need to pump it...?
Applying that equipment requires that the oil pressure and flow be controlled. Currently it is not controlled at all. Once they lost control most of their tools fell out of the box.
They are trying to regain control. If they do, they will seal this well up forever, cement it to the bottom, maybe someday when nobody is watching try again from scratch.
But if not ... well then we're off the edge of the map. Nobody knows what happens then because they've never lost control in a way they could not eventually regain it. End of the GoM as a commercial resource, at the least.
They are trying to regain control. If they do, they will seal this well up forever, cement it to the bottom, maybe someday when nobody is watching try again from scratch.
I hope the kill well 1 is able to get the job done. then I hope that they are able to use kill well 2 to produce the reservoir. I like oil. They found it and I want it. Producing it wll offset some of the blowout costs and we will get 1/3 of the profits as taxes. I really don't want to watch it being produced anyway. Does watching a pump jack nodding up and down give you a calm feeling?
Drill, Baby, Drill.
Say CW, just out of curiosity, do you KNOW where the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is located? The nightmare only gets worse.
I'll assume I don't, and it's a fabrication anyway and that the stated location is a cover-up.
So now ... how does the nightmare get worse? As it happens I'm in a good mood, give me your best shot.
When this thing really ruptures, it will rip the earth all the way to the gasoline storage tanks at you Pump N Shop. Check on the next fill up if the tanks will withstand 100,000 psi communication from this GoM monster.
From as many sources as I could gather it appears the majority of the SPRs are located in salt caverns in the GoM off the LA coast. I would think it possible that any breach of integrity of the sea floor may have a negative impact on the (supposed) estimated 600 million gallon contained in the various sites. Ta-Dah. Your thoughts.
Controlling this well is BP's wet dream. Oil is money, whereas, a cemented hole is a bust.
They'd confiscate and wring out every absorptive material ever used in the GoM if they could, and that would include squeezing every blade of marsh grass, bathing suits, and pelicans.
I suspect that, if you can profit from the nonsense that you propose, BP will give you full title to any recovered absorptive material and allow you to keep the profits. Get rich while you can.
While tragic, your assessment made me smile.
And I'm sure you are right. Every blade of grass.
Whatever happened to these items:
http://www.antemedius.com/content/oil-leaks-gulf-seabed-cracks-around-bp...
Oil Leaks From Gulf Seabed Cracks Around BP's Well Site?http://blog.al.com/live/2010/06/another_gulf_oil_spill_well_ne.html
Another Gulf oil spill: Well near Deepwater Horizon has leaked since at least April 30http://valdostadailytimes.com/national-international/x383296206/Gulf-awa...
Gulf awash in 27,000 abandoned wellsThose were determined to be non applicable nonsense.
Latest word, is the NEW CAP has a structural crack,seeping,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,'
So, in order to be safe, they will not affix it, fearing another blowout,
sounds good , certainly explains why they sent that ship out to map the geology.(watch what they do not what they say)
Also they have postponed this afternoon's briefing twice and it is now scheduled for 5pm.
It is pretty hard to figure out what the risk level exactly is - it's clear from the 7:30 am briefing that there is more concern about an underground blowout than has been admitted too previously. Is this due to evidence or are the bureaucrats showing their heavy hand? The seismic was described as a "baseline" suggesting someone wants to have a "pre-shut-in" record to compare to "post-shut-in" so that if a leak exists it can be pinpointed (this should be straightforward if significant gas escapes). Shutting down the deeper relief well for the test makes sense because it is only 4' away from the wellbore. I'm speculating - but in that discussion Wells mentioned "backside" flow in relation to a well that's still above the lower shoe. That would suggest someone is worried that the lower shoe has failed (seems unlikely to me) but if so then you are exposed to significant problems with the frac gradient vs pressure needed to kill with the relief well.
I have this frightening vision of the process being taken over by 'committee' where a room full of bureaucrats sits around questioning everything and running multiple what if's while the well continues to spew..........
That is the money quote.....