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Confusion As to New Oil Cap ... Relief Wells Halted
Don Van Nieuwenhuise - director of geosciences programs at the
University of Houston - gives the best summary of what is happening with
BP's new effort to stop the oil gusher.
Van Nieuwenhuise points
out:
- There is probably damage to the well bore under the sea
floor
- BP is performing acoustic tests (bouncing
sound waves down beneath the seafloor) to try to detect any leaks in the
subsurface
- BP will gradually close more and more
vents to gradually increase the pressure within the well bore (like
gradually covering more and more of your garden hose, so that more
pressure builds up in the hose)
BP
will perform a "well integrity test", shutting off the oil flow out of
the cap, and then seeing how much pressure builds up below.
The
more pressure the better ... because that would mean that there are no
major leaks beneath the seafloor. By way of analogy, a good way to see
if you have any leaks in your garden hose is to cover up the nozzle and
see if water goes shooting out someplace else.
The government
official in charge of the response to the oil spill - Coast Guard
admiral Thad Allen - confirmed today that:
- A 1.5 mile
“seismic run” was conducted to detect “anything that might happen with
the sea floor” from the well integrity test
- You
“could make the case that there’s some structural integrity issues with
the casing of the wellbore”
Oil
industry expert Rob Cavner - who previously explained
that there is damage in the oil well beneath the seafloor, and that BP
has to let the oil spill keep on gushing to avoid further damage to the
well bore until the well can be killed with relief wells (subsequently confirmed
by BP) - says that he is worried that the well integrity test could
further damage the well bore and could blow out the entire well:
So
how are things going so far?
how are things going so far?
BP has delayed the well
integrity test.
As the Wall Street Journal notes:
The
start of BP PLC’s (BP) crucial integrity test of the leaking Gulf of
Mexico oil well has been delayed until at least Wednesday, the U.S.
official leading the disaster response said.
Adm. Thad
Allen, the
former U.S. Coast Guard chief, said he had taken the decision to delay
the test after meetings with Energy Secretary Steven Chu, a Nobel
Prize-winning physicist, and other top experts.
“As a
result of
these discussions, we decided that the process may benefit from
additional analysis that will be performed tonight and tomorrow,” Allen
said in as statement.
AP also
notes that engineers are mapping subsurface dangers like gas pockets.
Rather
than a one-day delay, as was being reported yesterday, AP notes that
this
is an "if-when" situation:
"Our basic
position was, if you can give us the answers we need ... then go
ahead," the [anonymous government] official said. Until then, "they
can't go forward."
The official
stressed that the
government was acting out of "an abundance of caution" and still hopes
the temporary cap can be placed on the well.
Hopefully,
today's delay does not mean that
substantial leaks have been found below the level of the seafloor, and
hopefully Cavner's fears that the tests will blow out the well bore are
unfounded.
But because BP has consistently suppressed
information as long as possible, we won't know for some time. Remember,
BP suspended the "top kill" operation for 16 hours - because,
according to numerous experts, it
was creating more damage to the
well bore - without
even telling the media, local officials or the public that it had
even delayed the effort until long afterwards.
Indeed, even BP
hasn't been sounding all that confident about a well
integrity test. From another AP story:
"Everybody
hope and pray that we are seeing high pressures here," said senior BP
vice president Kent Wells.
***
The
integrity test,
however, was not without danger and Wells admitted that pressure caused
by closing the valves too quickly on the cap could send oil shooting
up from a new leak on the sea floor.
"The
worst-case scenario is that it could actually broach back to the sea
floor," Wells said.
But perhaps most importantly,
work on the relief wells has been halted during the pending completion
of the
well integrity test. As CNN notes
:
Work on two relief wells — seen as the ultimate
solution to the oil disaster — was suspended.
Wells said work on the first relief well, expected to be
completed
in August, was delayed while officials prepare for the integrity test
out of an abundance of caution. It is possible, though unlikely, that shutting in the
well
as part of the integrity test could cause the back side of the relief
well to be blown out, Wells said.
“It’s a good
precaution to take at this time,” he said. However, the delay will set
the relief well progress back by one to two days.
Bloomberg
quotes the frustration of an oil industry expert:
“There
are too many cooks in the kitchen,” said David Pursell, an analyst at
Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. in Houston and a former petroleum
engineer who conducted pressure tests. “Everybody in this process has
said the single and best chance of stopping this flow is the relief
well, and
now they’ve held up the
relief well while they’re figuring out protocol.”
MSNBC
correctly notes that this raises a lot of questions:
If BP
and the government had been forthcoming about the oil spill, we
wouldn't have to guess about what's going on, and we wouldn't worry that
something bad is happening behind the scenes.
But BP and the
government have done everything in their power to cover up the facts. BP has tried to cover up its
blunders by lowballing spill estimates, keeping reporters out of areas hardest hit by the oil
(and see this, this, this
and this) and threatening
to arrest them if they try to take pictures (and see this), hiding
dead birds and other sealife, and using dispersants to hide the
amount of spilled oil (the dispersants are only worsening the damage caused by the spill).
The government is aiding and
abetting the cover-up. See this
and this.
So
we may only know what is going on right now long after the fact, when a
whistleblower spills the beans.
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never said i was a christian sister. you're assuming just like him. never said what i was. just cited an old biblical text.
Let me elaborate on the incident with the "Christians" at my door you miserable little piece of excrement. I'm sitting in an apartment I had rented after our house was destroyed with my 2 kids who lost their house, their school, every possession they had, and had every friend move away from New Orleans never to return. The doorbell rings and I answer it and these 2 women hand me a pamphlet, look into through the door at my kids sitting there, and ask me "Do you believe that God sent Katrina to punish you for your sins?" I said "No I don't", closed the door on them, and spent an hour or so trying to explain this event to my kids.
You're a total asshole. Don't ever address me on this blog again.
now i have to. don't you see how you view every christian thru one lens?
Richard,
I am sorry for your bad experience. Christians are a lot like piano players. There are those who play it well, and those who play it poorly. Sounds like you ran into a really terrible player. I know lots of churches that sent groups to New Orleans to try and help feed, clean, and rebuild. It is too bad you were not reached by those truly trying to help. Again, sorry for your difficulties, and bad experience.
Richard,
I did not mean to imply that you speak of killing bankers and jews, just that there is lots of that type of talk bantered about here, without objection, but if a person of faith speaks of an item of interest to them, they are treated harshly, usually.
I actually enjoy reading your posts, and purpose of my comment was just to suggest this is one of the last bastions of free speech, and if we can let people carry on with some extreme conspiracy talk, we should be able to tolerate a little talk contemplating whether events in the news could potentially be related to biblical prophecy.
if you are going to stick up self expression, don't turn back around and lick this idiot's balls just to get along.
Did not look like "ball licking" to me. Looked like they worked it out like adults and got a good result. Working it out is another form of self expression and freedom of speech.
Understood. I think we're on the same page regarding freedom of speech here, although I'll probably never give any credence to Biblical prophecy.
Well actually we are here mostly for prophesy and rantings about genocide.
But only for the comedic relief these afford.
It's the end of the world. It's funny.
The answer really is 42. Took the oil spill to make that clear. Be a good kitty and meow "So long and thanks for all the fish."
If Doug were alive, maybe he would write us a volume entitled The Oil Spill Koans.
http://notmytribe.com/2010/us-to-send-46-navy-ships-to-costa-rica-818467...
OBammie's man, the Nobel Prize winner Chu. brought the confusion from Washington. Shut down everything while they figure out a fourth grade science experiment to run. The probably had to shut down the drilling while they ran the sies as it is pretty fine tuned acoustics. The cannot just shut the stuff down at any place in the drilling. They really, really should get this section of the well drilled and some pipe in the hole with cement. Then they can let these pecker necks fool around with lazers and light swords as long as Obammie wants to.
@GW
Your posts on the subject are much appreciated. This pressure test looks like another BP FAIL in the making. Some people, citing the law of averages and such, like to keep betting on the Oakland Raiders to win the next game. Not me.
From BP/Gov
"As a result of those discussions we decided the process may benfit from additional analysis"
At the same time, they not only put the test of the cap on hold, they suspended drilling of the relief well. Why not release the results of the seismic survey they just did? What did they see that made them suspend the relief wells?
Over the years, I have had the opportunity to be part of a number of utterly doomed and disastrous projects. Enough to be able to recognize one when I see one, and recognize the desperate doublespeak reflected in the quote above.
Crazy people rumors for months were that the seabed was cracked, now they stop to check the sea bed. The relief well is a waste of time if the seabed is cracked for miles.
Yes, but if I understand the time line right, they suspended the testing of the cap AFTER they did the seismic test. If it showed a clear indication of integrity of sea floor, why would they suspend testing of the cap? If they saw potential problems, why don't they let us know, instead of being coy?
They don't have a track record for being honest. You would think seismic test would be done before any work on cap/containing it would start.
wasn't there a large section at the bottom of the whole that did not have casing? If that is the case then it may even be more difficult to cement in .
I said 2 weeks ago we may be facing a 100,000 Barrel per hour Volcano of oil if we used a nec-ular bomb down there. Hell the oil dome pressure IS the bomb!! We are looking at a major league friggin nightmare--mostly brought on by lying. You can lie by not telling the whole truth.
The nincoompoops of our times are those who have no talent but to push pencils. Obama has to be removed from office ASAP.
He is a clear and present danger to our society and to everyone else. Ya, I know he is nothing more than a step an fetchit for the banks and other $$ people but his misleading this nation cannot be tolerated any longer!! Impeach. Milestones
He definitely caused the entire world economic meltdown, of course. And since he caused the oil spew, he should be hung up by the tender parts in the town square. We must have vengeance.
RR, how many times have I told you to stop playing with your food?
Wash it once, and only once, and then eat it. Vigorous water boarding of your live prey isn't polite and it scares the hell out of the children.
Strange fruit hanging from the poplar trees...
extreme and tasteless sarcasm i pray.
Yes. Thank you for recognizing that. Sometimes the haters get the best of me.
Somebody paid to much for their college degrees. Directed at staffing at BP and Goverment agencys.
Who is this "much" that they paid?
LOL Richard! (oh, I did)
Richard made a funny! Too Much, Ph.D.
they are allready housecleaning or covering up
http://www.mms.gov/
degrees from these guys maybe?
http://www.online-masters-degrees-programs.org/masters-in-government.htm
Never mind.
This is journalism, not reporting.
Their fear is palpable. They are being xtra-xtra careful becuase this well is not playing by the rules. Not out of the woods yet, by any measure.
The relief well and bottom kill is the only solution, but it takes a while (maybe too long), and there is a chance that the ambient pressure in the well bore might yet overcome the kill mud head pressure, even with a deep bottom kill, or that the well bore is so badly eroded that the kill mud disappears into the surrounding strata and never builds enough head up the bore.
If the pressure tests hold then they have a good casing and a chance at a bottom kill up the casing. If the tests fail slightly then they might have a real fight on their hands even with the bottom kill, and they'll double their inventory of mud and vessels, and hope the weather holds. If the tests fail and there is no real preassure built then I imagine the kill effort is likely toast even before it starts.
They are taking the latter scenario seriously, hence the siesmic survey to make sure the surrounding strata will hold and hasn't already been invaded by natgas. Groping in the dark, you move slowly and keep a toe out in front probing for cliffs in the dark.
If the tests fail and there is no real pressure built then I imagine the kill effort is likely toast even before it starts.
Agree, this is what the entire incident has been pointing to from day 1, the well has serious structural issues and cannot be capped. Since "killing" the well is therefore unlikely, that implies that the only solution is to collect/harvest as much oil as we can to keep it off the beaches. Hence the massive investment in the new cap/BOP and the delay on the RW.
IMHO, it is possible the PTB know the only answer is to mine this thing for years as the cap off processes are unlikely to be unsuccessful. Not sure who will be charged with letting everyone know this fact.
Not sure how BP "profiting" from collecting the oil will play out politically. :-(
sschu
You are probably onto something. They might be slowly preparing us for the situation that a permanent oil slick in the GoM is the new normal. The day they suggest that, BP will pull up and go home.
They might be slowly preparing us for the situation that a permanent oil slick in the GoM is the new normal.
I am no expert but spent a LOT of time early on trying to understand this thing. From this study it seems like the pressures from the well were greater than the technology could/can accommodate. Hence when some other “errors” occurred (bad cement jobs, sea water in the well, not monitoring return mud flows), they lost control of the well, killed 11 guys, sunk a rig worth $100M+ and trashed the GOM for years.
Like most disasters it is not just one thing that is the cause, it is the combo of bad luck, timing, poor judgment and equipment failure. BP screwed up, but I bet what they did was just SOP for them.
What has been surprising to me is the lack of old gray-hairs that have made statements about the well, maybe I just missed it. Perhaps the old sages who have been doing this for 40 years can see what has occurred and they are telling BP to get ready for the worst. Not a message most would want to deliver … or hear.
sschu
"Not sure how BP "profiting" from collecting the oil will play out politically."
Not to worry. BP would "donate" all profits to various local Boy Scout troops (who will volunteer to clean beaches, their expected health problem decades away) and Meals-On-Wheels programs for those shut-in grannies who can't leave their BP oiled homes near the beach.
Plus BP would get a tax deduction for the "donation". In fact, there was an article today discussing the Billions in taxes BP won't be paying to the UK and the USA over the next few years.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-13/bp-spill-costs-to-trigger-tax-deductions-possible-u-s-refunds.html
http://drippingoil.blogspot.com/2010/07/bp-nysebp-helped-by-lower-taxes-from.html
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=508978&in_page_id=2
Combine your good summary with the fact that BP doesn't wish to admit any degree of responsibility but rather their lawyers want it to be decided in the courts and you have a recipe for cover up. Add in a healthy dose of in-the-same-bed government, shake vigorously and we have a classic cluster fuck on our hands.
Which means the correct thing(s) to do is nearly always down at the bottom of the list. Business, legal and electoral politics is at the very top of the list and occupies the top 20 slots. I simply don't trust what I'm being told nor do I trust who is telling me. And I have good reason not to trust them.
Combine your good summary with the fact that BP doesn't wish to admit any degree of responsibility but rather their lawyers want it to be decided in the courts and you have a recipe for cover up. Add in a healthy dose of in-the-same-bed government, shake vigorously and we have a classic cluster fuck on our hands.
Where have you been bucky? Huckleberry patch?
BP has already agreed to pay $20,000,000 and has been paying damage claims for a couple of months. Who do you believe is paying for the fleet sitting out there over the well? The nonsense that gets posted on bloggs and message boards is amazing. You must be one of the Matt Simmons team.
Your buddy Obammie sent his top man Chu to stop the operations for drilling the relief wells. He wants some experiments run by the fourth grade science class.
HEy, CD. For accuracies sake, you may wish to change clusterfuck to FUBAR.
FUBAR is perhaps more technically accurate, and probably descriptive of the situation on the ground (er water) in the GoM.
However clusterfuck comes closer to encompassing the crass disregard for truth, continuous hand-waving, and blatant ass-covery on display for the last 60 days with no end in sight.
Notice that in either usage, we remain fucked.
well.. they play it just like the banks. Take excessive risks and hope that their fiscal and political hedges bail them out.
Agree absolutely.
Will only add that one does not lawyer Nature. Fancy foot work is not going to materially slow 60K barrels/day of crude. They will be able to weasel out of everything except the biggest oil slick and associated property and environmental damage ever seen on this planet.
We have met the limits of our cleverness. Beyond here, there lurk monsters.
Good article GW. It's obviously a clusterfuck in the gulf right now. The lies coming from dot gov and BP don't help.
The Fed's polling on this issue must show that this oil well leak is helping Obama and the Democrat's numbers. If they fixed the problem, the left wing would likely desert Obama and go sit on a fence for the upcoming mid-term elections. I expect Obama to delay the fix of this well and extract maximum left wing benefit from this capitalist disaster. This issue must be helping the political campaigns of the Democrats in the Northern & Coastal States who are not directly impacted by the GOM Oil Leak.
If Obama allows the fix of the oil well to be completed, the media will move onto new topics that include the aftermath (who, what, where, when, why); Arizona immigration will increase in stature, etc. Obama needs the Gulf leak in order to "manage" the news.
He likely will lose a trump card with Great Britain if the well leak is stopped.
Get somebody that knows what the fuck they are doing. This goes for the GOM oil leak as well. :)