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Confusion On Tap For Stock Markets
From Nic Lanoir at ICAP
Markets seem to start the week fairly confused. Stocks in Europe and in the US are looking to open lower, supposedly on concerns about trade protectionism between the US and China. However stocks in China were up, which is somewhat counterintuitive given that trade protectionism usually hurts the exporters more! Also sovereign bonds in the US and Europe and lower this morning, defying any risk aversion theory, and
EURJPY is flat after making new lows overnight and a sharp move lower on Friday which was in full contradiction with how equities behaved to end the week. After more than 50% upside in equities, it makes sense that markets are a bit confused and correlations are breaking down a bit as we consolidate. Let's
wait for confirmation before getting excited here!
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When in doubt U.S. markets pick the upside - gap is already in the process of getting filled. Going long on an overnight drop has become a high probability trade these days.
Confused? Come on, just look at that ramp from 6:30-6:45AM. It's like a football team that keeps running the same play. Every down.
It worked against the computer on techmo bowl... walter payton ftw.
The gubbermint will be defending the markets heavily (already we can see a 'bounce' off the morning low). The US can't afford to project a weak market - which means they will be holding it up. Expect a 'square root' looking graph by the end of the day.. as per the norm.
Your comment indicates a complete and total lack of comprehension. The bond market drives this, Cochise. The equities market matters only to suckers, uh, investors like you.
Anyone else's broker showing ARCA down?
china has a strong assembly and distribution process, we are protectionist because we do not, so USA gets hurt more, it only costs more for the exporter which China may have enough profit margin to easily absorb while USA may not, especially if domestic deflation increases, it will hammer domestic operations' top line and global inflation will wreck the costs and compress margins. domestic corps get hit from both sides. carpe diem
CHina stocks are up on a trade war because they know China will win the war! They have us over a barrel and I'm surprised Obama didn't know that.
For every tariff we impose they will impose 2 and if we fight it they will threaten to decimate the dollar. We will relent and they will win.
Shank the dollar, build the upward channel, pump Nasdaq futures, repeat.
Nobody is buying anything, especially anything with tires on it, so I don't see what is all the fuss.
It isn't like our union based domestic tire companies were serving the lower end market anyway. Thanks for helping me save a few bucks, BO. I'll do you a solid in 2012 you union whore....
Last year LEH, AIG and all the other collapses happened in Sept. The market ran up into option expiration with a 5-7% move on Thursday (9-18-08,TARP announcement) and a gap up OP-EX max pain on Friday (9-19-08) of 3-5%. It may of been higher ( I was short and got smoked). They can keep the mark up till your insolvent if your short. We didn't start cratering till Oct yet they always say it was Lehman that brought us down. They gunned it up till exhaustion last year. Are they doing the same now?
feels like a POMO day.
Tomorrow is a POMO day. Just check this link out whenever you are curious:
http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/operation_schedule.html
bye bye US dollar
Dash for Trash in full effect with AIG up $2
SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
Temporarily hijacking this thread from a conversation of investment markets to one of a more political bent, consider these points and I would encourge all to do more research:
- rigged investment markets (to include ALL of them)
- HFT to shaft the retail investor under the guise of added liquidity
- TARP and all of the other alphabet soup programs aimed at redistributing wealth to the inner circle of insolvent, government-owned entities at the expense of the US taxpayer
- Reappointment of Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, an entity that is NOT a government agency, merely a banking cartel authorized to "print" worthless FRNs in support of the Ponzi scheme known as post-gold standard fractional reserve bank lending - do your research as to how the Fed was created in 1913 and how Congress was hoodwinked at that time
- Look at the rate of inflation (thus the incremental devaluation of the dollar - dollar has lost nearly ALL of its value in relative terms) since the time of the Fed's inception - then look at the rate of inflation from the birth of the US until the creation of the Federal Reserve - yep, you got it - hovering right around 0%
- Fed's decision several years ago to not disclose a very integral component of the nation's money supply
- Bernanke's/Geitner's current refusal to comply with, and thus appeal, resolution 1207 to audit the Fed's books
- Though I'm not an economist, do you think that Bernanke (a supposed learned scholar of the Great Depression) and Greenspan can/could not see/measure the current and future economic impacts on the US economy? Could it be a planned destruction according to the script?
- Massive propaganda campaign on all MSM to distort the truth about what is really going on in this country - yeah, green shoots, right......see the Art Cashen (sp?) interview from last week that mysteriously disappeared from the Bloomberg ticker and website.....
- Historical and current widespread government manipulation of major economic data to include unemployment, housing, GDP and CPI among others to allow the American Idol crowd to errantly believe in this "recovery"
- Don't have the data at hand, yet many would be surprised at the majority ownership %'s of all of the major newspapers and 24-hour news stations - note: it won't read US Government, but you can bet there is control
- While you're at it, would be interested to understand the tie-in between the telecommunications industry (internet service providers and telephone) and the US Government....maybe we'll be rethinking our definition of progressive technology
- Swine flu (H1N1) - 1976: one person died from it, 25 died form the vaccine - hmmm?
- Google current Massachusetts state legislature bill concerning mandatory H1N1 vaccinations, imprisonment, $1000/day fines, etc. - could this make its way to the federal level?
- Ask yourself about how the writ of habeus corpus actually applies today as opposed to pre-9/11/2001; given that, I wonder how long the 2nd amendment will hold up - after all, we could have an "emergency"
- What did FDR do in 1933 that had an impact on the economic system? What were the tax rates at that time?
- Google stories as long ago as two years that reflect the buildup and deployment of regular military and national guard troops to contain civil unrest during a period of martial law
- See recent stories about giving the President control of the internet during periods of "emergency"
- See most recent NY Times article proclaiming the need for an "Internet 2" - wonder who would be controlling that? The internet now = Wild West (not good if one was looking to control flow of information into the private sector) - Bob Dylan and Barrack Obama said "change is a comin'" and they'd be right
- Health care - pa lease! The public option will be the only option after a certain period of time has elapsed - do the math on what happens when the private insurers rates are so exorbitant (yeah, triggers) that the employers (if you even have a job) make you pay so much for insurance that, out of fear and necessity, you gladly take whatever the US government is offering - don't worry about the insurers though, I'm certain there will be a "back door" that few will know about that will include subsidizations and "retrocessions" (aka kickbacks) - after this, it will make the Sarah Palin "death panel" discussions a bit more relevant now won't it - don't believe me? google Rham Immanuel's brother, Ezekiel Manuel, along with several other of the Obama "Czars" and find out what their long-term solutions might be
- See recent meaningless trade tariffs imposed by the US on China for tires that the US consumer can't afford anyway - this country needs a fall guy/fall country to blame while the masses capitulate to what was "not the government's fault" - gotta' blame someone - my bet is on China
Remember: every great lie contains some semblance of the truth; the best lie is the biggest, one that is so far-fetched that the masses will go quietly until the final acts have been perpetrated -expect the unexpected and the unbelievable
Not stating any opinions, just providing some food for thought. Everyone on this blog is capable of drawing their own conclusions....
Still looking out for you after all these years,
George O.
My take on the Chinese market bing up would make sense in that if the Cinese stop buying bonds that money will flow back to their country.
DOW 10000 HERE WE COME. YA-HOOOOO!