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Congressional Budget Office Projects $9.5 Trillion In Deficits By 2021, $2.3 Trillion More Than Obama's Estimate

Tyler Durden's picture


Today the Congressional Budget Office slammed the president's unrealistic budget presented recently, concluding that the cumulative deficit over the decade between 2011-2021 would be $9.5 trillion, or $2.3 trillion higher than that estimated by the White House. The reason for the differences according to the CBO is  "differences in the underlying projections of what would happen under
current law ($1.3 trillion) as well as from differing assessments of the
effects of the President’s proposals ($1.0 trillion)." Then again, as we fail to recall when was the last time even the slightly more realistic CBO predicted a correct cumulative deficit ten years forward, we are fairly certain both will vastly underestimate the actual deficit by 2021. And as gross debt issuance tends to run about 50% over cumulative deficits, Zero Hedge expects that the best case scenario is for $15 trillion in debt issuance over the next 10 years as a baseline, and likely far more (bringing total marketable debt to around $25 trillion by 2021). This is problematic to say the least, because as the AP notes, the White House's goal is to reach a point where the budget is balanced
except for interest payments on the $14 trillion national debt. Such
"primary balance" occurs when the deficit is about 3 percent of the size
of the economy, and economists say deficits of that magnitude are
generally sustainable. Instead, just the interest expense per the CBO will be greater than this threshold: "Outlays would be greater under the President’s budget than in CBO’s baseline in each of the next 10 years, largely because the proposed reduction in revenues would boost deficits and thus the costs of paying interest on the additional debt that would accumulate. In particular, net interest payments would nearly quadruple in nominal dollars (without an adjustment for inflation) over the 2012–2021 period and would increase from 1.7 percent of GDP to 3.9 percent." And once again, this is based on numbers which will likely way undershoot the final outcome.

The key summary points of the CBO's revised budget :

  • Under the President’s proposals, the federal budget deficit would
    total $1.2 trillion in 2012 and smaller amounts in later years,
    averaging 4.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the 2012–2021
  • Deficits would total $9.5 trillion between 2012 and 2021 under the
    President’s budget, $2.7 trillion more than the amounts projected in
    CBO’s March baseline. Debt held by the public would rise from 69 percent
    of GDP in 2011 to 87 percent of GDP in 2021.
  • The President’s policy proposals, on net, mostly affect the revenue
    side of the budget: Relative to CBO’s baseline, revenues would be lower
    in every year of the coming decade—for a total reduction of about 6
    percent over the 2012–2021 period. Most of the revenue changes would
    result from extending tax policies that are currently in effect or were
    in effect in the recent past.
  • Outlays (other than net spending for interest costs) would be
    slightly lower under the President’s budget than in CBO’s baseline over
    the next 10 years.

The details provided by the CBO (which are highly irrelevant: nobody in their right mind can predict what will happen next week let alone in 10 years, but that's what taxpayer money is spent on these days):

CBO’s Updated Baseline Projections. As a basis for
analyzing the President’s budget, CBO updated its baseline budget projections, which were last issued in January 2011. Unlike its
estimates of the President’s budget, CBO’s baseline projections largely
reflect the assumption that current tax and spending laws will remain
unchanged. Under that assumption, CBO estimates that the deficit will
total $1.40 trillion in 2011—$81 billion less than the agency estimated
in January. For the 2012–2021 period, CBO now projects a cumulative
deficit of $6.7 trillion—$234 billion less than the amount in the
previous baseline. CBO has not modified its economic forecast since
January, so the updated baseline projections largely reflect new
information that the agency has obtained about various aspects of the
federal budget.

CBO’s Analysis of the President’s Proposals. CBO
analyzes the President’s budget using its own economic assumptions and
estimating techniques (rather than the Administration’s) and
incorporates estimates prepared by the staff of the Joint Committee on
Taxation (JCT) for tax provisions. According to CBO’s projections, if
all of the President’s budgetary proposals were enacted, they would add
$26 billion to the baseline deficit for 2011. The 2011 deficit would
total $1.43 trillion, or 9.5 percent of gross domestic product.

In 2012, the deficit under the President’s budget would decline to
$1.2 trillion, or 7.4 percent of GDP, CBO estimates. That shortfall is
$83 billion greater than the deficit that CBO projects for 2012 in its
current baseline. Deficits in succeeding years under the President’s
proposals would be smaller than the deficit in 2012, although they would
still add significantly to federal debt. The deficit would shrink to
4.1 percent of GDP by 2015 but then widen in later years, reaching 4.9
percent of GDP in 2021. Federal debt held by the public would double
under the President’s budget, growing from $10.4 trillion at the end of
2011 to $20.8 trillion at the end of 2021.

The President’s policy proposals, on net, would have the largest
effect on the revenue side of the budget. Those proposals would reduce
revenues, relative to CBO’s baseline projections, in every year of the
coming decade. Nevertheless, revenues would rise relative to GDP: from
16.2 percent in 2012 to 19.3 percent in 2021. That figure is below CBO’s
baseline projection for 2021 (20.8 percent) but higher than the average
ratio of revenues to GDP seen over the past 40 years (18.0 percent).

Most of the revenue changes would result from extending tax policies
that are currently in effect or were in effect in the recent past. The
tax package enacted late last year extended through December 2012 many
of the tax reductions originally enacted in 2001 and 2003. The President
proposes to extend those reductions permanently, with some
modifications, and to permanently index for inflation the amounts of
income exempt from the alternative minimum tax, starting at their 2011
levels. In addition, the President proposes that, beginning in January
2013, estate and gift taxes return permanently to the rates and
exemption levels that were in effect in calendar year 2009. Those
policies would reduce tax revenues and boost outlays for refundable tax
credits by a total of more than $3.0 trillion over the next 10 years
relative to the amounts projected in CBO’s baseline.
Outlays would be greater under the President’s budget than in CBO’s
baseline in each of the next 10 years, largely because the proposed
reduction in revenues would boost deficits and thus the costs of paying
interest on the additional debt that would accumulate. In particular,
net interest payments would nearly quadruple in nominal dollars (without
an adjustment for inflation) over the 2012–2021 period and would
increase from 1.7 percent of GDP to 3.9 percent. Total outlays under the
President’s budget would equal 23.6 percent of GDP in 2012, decline
slightly as a share of GDP over the following two years, and then rise
for the rest of the 10-year projection period. They would equal 24.2
percent of GDP in 2021—about 0.3 percentage points above CBO’s baseline
projection for that year and well above the 40-year average for total
outlays, 20.8 percent.

Spending proposals with the largest budgetary impact over 10 years include the following: 

  • Medicare: The President proposes to freeze Medicare’s
    payment rates for physicians at the current level throughout the
    2012–2021 period. That policy would boost outlays by $0.3 trillion
    relative to the amount under current law (which calls for sharp
    reductions in payments to physicians). 
  • Transportation: Higher spending on surface transportation programs would add another $0.2 trillion to the total deficit between 2012 and 2021. 
  • Defense: The President’s budget includes a total of $0.9
    trillion less in spending for defense over the 2012–2021 period than the
    amount projected in CBO’s baseline. The main reason for the difference
    is that the baseline incorporates the assumption that funding for
    war-related activities will continue at $159 billion a year (the amount
    provided so far for 2011, annualized) with adjustments for inflation,
    whereas the President’s budget includes a request for appropriations of
    $127 billion for such activities for 2012 and a placeholder of $50
    billion a year thereafter.

The complete CBO analysis of the President's Budget can be found here.


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Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:40 | 1073901 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

My projection is the dollar does not exist in 2021.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:59 | 1073949 Shameful
Shameful's picture

You never know.  Look at other corrupt oligarchy governments.  They are able to rotate out fiat names pretty quick.  Didn't take long for Argentina to go from Peso to Austral to Peso again.  So this current Dollar maybe not, but still good chance the paper money will still be named the Dollar.

Dollar -> Dollar 2: Dollar of the Dead -> Dollar 3: Bernanke's Revenge

Make it like horror movies.  Can have a new Saw movie every year, why not a new currency?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:20 | 1074049 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I agree but I don't blame the oligarchy anymore, I blame the people.

If people are so stupid, that they can watch what the Fed does every day and not buy an oz of gold, then they are the ones to blame.

If there was some meaningful gold purchases going on, this game would stop dead in its tracks.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:36 | 1074063 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Blame whoever you want.  The mass man has always been oblivious to the world around him, why should the present or the future be any different?

And why would gold purchases stop anything?  Why would it matter if gold was $20 an oz or $20 million.  Makes no difference to the overall structure of the ponzi does it?  Gold is no panacea, it's just a way for some of the people who see what is happening to carry a few chips into the next ponzi game.  This wasn't the first go around and will not be the last.

Gold changes nothing in the structure, sound money would make the game harder but still playable.  After all can always have gov pick up bad banker debt under a gold standard just as well as a fiat.  Only people waking up and refusing to be scammed by slick con-men will change it.  However that is largely against the nature of man, which hasn't changed in a long time, and I don't expect it to change.  A sucker is born every minute.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:53 | 1074100 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Well stated P.T. Shameful ;-)

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:11 | 1074126 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Shameful    "..sucker is born every minute.."

Check your history books. Suckers are prevelent (only) when things are going well. When specifically the economy is going bad these 'suckers' turn on authority (Govt, Royalty etc). I suggest you check elections. When the economy is fine and dandy the Party stays in power. When the economy is tanking the incumbent party gets booted out.

When the economy is dire (ie. depresion) the authority in power gets linched by those 'suckers' history teaches us the economy is the lead indicator to anger/tolerance levels and how much these suckers will take... not much more i reckon

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:53 | 1074213 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I have been thinking about the issues around this string for a little bit. Not that I have, or will ever, come up with any real conclusions, but here is my theory loosely referenced:

1. The PTB do an excellent job co-opting as many people as possible to the Ponzi. In reality, without the Ponzi, the overall standard of living would be much lower. Life would be more sustainable, but a bit harder, with less excess. Think of all of the people who nominally benefit from the Ponzi - 45 million SNAP recipients, all MIC contractors/workers, .gov workers, all bankers and financial services employees, etc., etc.

2. While the nominal standard of living would be lower without the Ponzi, it would probably be more 'real' - with more free time, etc. I'm not from that time, but only 15-20 years ago one breadwinner could feed a family, but there was only one car, one TV, etc. Things were 'simpler' then. Far less skimming by the Ponzi of fees, premiums, etc. 

3. It's hard for people to see the creeping theft of their lifestyle and wealth - it is the boiling of a frog in a pot. 

4. The "American Dream" and the canard of class mobility also keeps the poor/middle class hoping they too someday can be rich. Therefore, these classes sometimes don't want to upset the current system, with the long-shot odds in mind that they might actually get to the top someday. 

Put this all together, and I believe most people actually support - and would support - the current system. They want theirs, and what's been 'promised' to them. Social Security is such a great example of how to create millions of 'defenders' of the system. They all now have a vested interest in the Ponzi - hoping that they someday will get paid (back). Even demanding they get paid. 

This, to me, is why when you explain the Ponzi, and its implications, to many people they simply roll their eyes and call you a 'doomer'. Now one wants to actually debate you on the facts, or can suggest the current course is sustainable. They know, deep down on some level, that you make great points. But, they know that they are living the 'good life' at the moment - with too many TV's, cheap gas, etc., etc. Yes, it's NOT the forest for the trees, but it's far too easy to participate and hope - then to change. 

Real work, for real money would take effort. We have been desensitized to that. Numbed. 

Anyway, that's why I don't think people are 'stupid' for not wanting changes. They are short-sighted though. They know that change (the Fourth Turning, if you will) will come eventually no matter what, but simply hope for a little bit more time before it happens. As long as they get their's, it's ok... 

Anyway, that's my yet-to-gel theory...

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:16 | 1074245 centerline
centerline's picture

All valid points.  And some of the primary reasons that I believe there is no real way this can end well.  CHS pointed out something simlar a few months ago... that technically there are more people beholden to the current system than not.  Once you factor in some of your points, it is clear that a large majority of the population, if truly knowledgable about what it going on, would likely seek to "kick the can" as long as possible anyhow.  Seems to me it is more like "kick the grenade."


Sat, 03/19/2011 - 17:47 | 1076634 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

it's a myth this system called Govt was ever endorsed by the citizens it robs in the first place. Let's not forget America and Europe were ruled by a bunch of property-banking-industrial vested interests that literally created, out of thin air, the notion of Govt. It was fabricated by parasites, a fantasy construct.

America was built largely without Govt by un-ruled immigrants escaping the parasitical elite in Europe. 

We don't need Govt, never did, never will. All it takes to remove this fantasy land of delusional self-important 'leaders' is civil disobedience. As simple as saying I won't pay taxes (be robbed).

Once a relatively small percentage of the people (say 10% ,maybe as low as 5%) say "Fuk the State" the game is over. The State is fuked, the parasites ponzi has no public mandate because they can't fine, pinalise, police and jail 5-10% of the populace. Very, very simple simple most people can't get their heads round it!

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:45 | 1074293 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

America, and Canada are about to graduate the Boomers into their respective pension plans. This is a big cohort, and the slack will be taken up the generations coming after, which are smaller and don't have the benefit of having lived through a sustained economic boom time.

There is going to be a big battle, divided along generational lines, coming up. The people coming after the boomers might not think twice about kicking grandma to the curb if the alternative is paying more and more into a system that will probably never benefit them.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:38 | 1074369 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

It would actually have to come to the physical kicking!   Old people vote.  Young do not.  Politicians listen to those who vote.   A real revolt of the physical type will have to occur to change any of that.  Keep an eye on Wisconsin, etc., to see the political scenario play out in a microcosm.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 10:28 | 1074983 ibjamming
ibjamming's picture

Elections are rigged now...din't you get the memo?


SS and Medicare are NOT fucking ENTITLEMENTS!!!  Get that LIE through your fucking heads!  These programs CAN support themselves...they've been ROBBED that's why there's no fucking money to pay out.  There better be NO fucking welfare at all before one dime get's cut to people who actually WORKED for their money!  It's the leeches collecting "disability" that's ruining SS.  It's the thieves who stole the SS money and replaced it with debt who fucked over SS.  Yes...we CAN'T pay back that which was robbed from SS.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 18:00 | 1076717 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

what will happen in Wisconsin is 'Pretend & Extend'... it won't change anything because people are still expecting 'The System' to change itself in some miracle outbreak of integrity

the one and only thing that will change the system is civil disobedience and refusing to pay your taxes. You have to starve The Parasite Club of its lifeblood (a slice of your income) and remove the system altogether. Govt (the system) is the problem, not the solution.

Once you remove Govt (monopoly power, judiciary, Law, police, military etc etc) you remove all the major issues in society regards the economy too. Namely the mega-monopolies the State and its vested interests run (education, healthcare, energy, banking, transport etc) falls apart under the miracle power of the free market which kills with competition all the non-performing monopolies that use the State as its protection racket

Just say "No" to State taxation (the parasites robbing you)... very simple, very effective

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:56 | 1074218 Michael
Michael's picture

I want to thank you all at Zero Hedge, even the contrarians (from our perspective) for everything. I need to make preparations on  the home front in earnest that will consume much of my time. There's really not much more of a difference I can make at this point, as the die is cast. I will try to check in every day and post pertinent information when I can.

I received a strange sign I'm still trying to analyze. I'm not superstitious but I do believe there is an esoteric power in play. A nickel coin flew out of my pocket while pulling out a piece of paper and landed in a very special empty cup on my coffee table. The image on the back of the coin was the Lewis and Clark Expedition. Please don't think too much of it, but ponder the amazing achievement we have accomplished together in our history.

Thanks Again,


(Simple AVG Virus protection gave no virus problem with this link)

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:24 | 1074261 centerline
centerline's picture

Hope to see you around sometime.   Good luck with your preparations.  Maybe share a bit of your preparations and rationale out here from time to time.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:37 | 1074283 Michael
Michael's picture

I'm planting fruit trees in my back yard in SW Florida.

I'm counting on planting hemp in the empty lots and marijuana in my secret garden soon.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:21 | 1074341 sgorem
sgorem's picture

Try grafting a little of that herb onto one of your fruit trees for some awfully sweet "herbalicious":) Yee Hiii. Good luck Michael.........

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:26 | 1074264 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture


You want to try that again? You aren't superstitious yet you divine meaning from a coin's fall.

Fruit anyone?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:38 | 1074282 tmosley
tmosley's picture

William the Bastard.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:33 | 1074276 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Yes, good luck with your preparations. Thanks for the comments and the links...

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 11:04 | 1075008 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Shameful, gold is the only meaningful asset on all Central Banks balalce sheets.  It is their only means of collateral.  Gold prices make all the difference to the ponzi.  If Bernanke is having trouble flooding the world with dollars, he leases gold and uses the proceeds to loan dollars to JPM, GS, BOJ, etc.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:38 | 1074284 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

"Dollar -> Dollar 2: Dollar of the Dead -> Dollar 3: Bernanke's Revenge"

Cult of the Dead Dollar

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:09 | 1074010 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


i yam barely able to do this math, msC, but it sure lQQked like a ten-year can-kick down the road to slewie, tooie. 

plus, we have a zeroHedge est. of $15 tril, right here, above, for a 58% ridicule of the "Congolese Budgetary Orfice" crap of $9.5 tril. 

and, we know that zeroHedge is conservative, radically so, even, in its "editorializing" about the fuking unicorns and the rainbows we're getting "shot up with", as in steady diet.

ergo, get out, now, and avoid the rush!

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:23 | 1074163 Twindrives
Twindrives's picture

Obama wouldn't lie to us, would he?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:23 | 1074257 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture



 No!.... Why do you ask?



Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:08 | 1074233 undereducated
undereducated's picture

$100,000 in FRN or $100,000 in silver in a box to be opened in 10 years...your choice.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:38 | 1074281 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture


Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:29 | 1074356 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Ha!  Missy, I won't even be here in 2021.  Forge ahead.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:42 | 1073906 quantum dines
quantum dines's picture

banana republic, bitchezz

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:42 | 1073907 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

my projection is the dollar does not exist in 2012.  You may have had the last 2 digits backwards.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:45 | 1073932 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Oh, it'll exist.  It's just the biggest bills will have a few extra zeros after.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:43 | 1073912 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

When you're talking imaginary money, why quibble over a few trillion? Why not move into the next monetary unit? What comes after trillion? Gazillion?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:45 | 1073930 andybev01
andybev01's picture

I don't have that many toes...

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:03 | 1073981 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

And I can't count to 21 without pulling down my pants. How shall I be expected to comprehend this $2.3 tril difference?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:30 | 1074067 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Here's a handy reference guide to the demise of the US economy:



Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:22 | 1074256 James
James's picture

In the future we will have Googleaires.A Google is any number with 100 zeros after it!

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 09:31 | 1074927 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

That's Googol!!!

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:43 | 1073916 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Obama had an estimate?  I thought he was playing golf.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:12 | 1074015 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

I saw his to do list when he was taking a cigarette break at the fairway on the 2nd hole - several estimates of note: green breaks slight left, 233 MegaSieverts, the 'milligram of silver' stops here, and uconn 3-peats as womens ncaa basketball champs.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:23 | 1074050 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Isn't congressional budgeting just like lying on your golf card? Ooohhh 9 mulligan!

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:45 | 1073918 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Anyone else think we'll look back on reports like this as being a sign of just how detached from reality our government was?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:22 | 1074051 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

I really don't know..

What if you seen the current joke show 10 years ago ? You would say, no way.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:44 | 1073919 dbTX
dbTX's picture

what's the point of even having a budget, it means nothing, damn the deficit, full spending ahead

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:25 | 1074057 maximin thrax
maximin thrax's picture

Government spends as the borrower of last resort in order to sop up all that money the Fed prints to keep interest rates low enough that the national debt can be serviced. As long as GDP is enumerated in dollars, rather than gold or oil for example, ever-weaker dollars can raise annual GDP to whatever level is required to be an acceptable proportion to the accumulated debt. So the question is, can the future real value of the dollar be divined by knowing what the future debt service will be, assuming that as many dollars as required are planned to be emmitted to maintain debt serviceability (low interest and a proportionate GDP)?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:43 | 1074206 Backspin
Backspin's picture

You're making sense to me, thrax.  What you are describing seems to be the way they are doing it, and I expect that it will continue to work... until it doesn't.  These things grow exponentially, and exponential growth gets out of control at some point.

So, when does it really get out of control?  I'm guessing in a few years.  We shall see.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:45 | 1073920 Rainman
Rainman's picture

No wonder Timmay followed the leader to Rio. Good time to release this noxious budget gas. Here I thought they were running from the radiation.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:46 | 1073935 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Yeah right.  By 2021 the yearly deficits will be at least 9.5 Trillion.  Forget debt to GDP of 100%, I'm looking for deficits to GDP of 100%!

Since debt growth will now rapidly expand past GDP growth, it's just circling the drain.  Don't know how long it will last, but I daresay this stage of the game will explode in a fiat fireball well before 2021.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:28 | 1074066 maximin thrax
maximin thrax's picture

Nah. GDP, priced in ever-weaker US dollars, will be three times what it is today by 2021. However, priced in oil it will be two-thirds today's GDP. Priced in gold it may be one-third today's GDP.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:48 | 1073940 rich_wicks
rich_wicks's picture

This is not rocket science.  You see this:

The red line is what our national debt would be if it grew at a steady 9.4% a year, since 1971.  The blue line is actual debt.

We'll be at over 30 trillion dollars by 2020 - provided the nation doesn't collapse first.  Any estimates from any government sources is pure BS. 

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:51 | 1073947 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Spending cuts will not do.

You need a tilt and a radical game restart.

Show me a man with brass cojones, or a woman with steel breasts resembling the front bumper of a 1956 Buick please!

Show me a leader who utters "don't get stuck on stupid reporter" and then we can talk. 

If not, QE ad infinitum.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:51 | 1073950 chubbar
chubbar's picture

YAWN! I mean really, fucking yawn. Do any of the assholes that make up our collective government have any fucking clue about budgeting or the concept of balancing income with expenditures? Have they shown any indication of giving a shit in the past, say, thirty years? I don't think so. This whole idea of a budget is a joke. The idiots running this show are stalling for time, that's it, period. They collectively hope it doesn't happen on their watch and in the meanwhile collect payola on their votes.

The show is going to collapse and they certainly know it! Bunch of absolute assholes for not tipping us off on the program. Make it a personal point to hunt one of these fuckers down after the shit hits the fan.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:47 | 1074209 Backspin
Backspin's picture

Amen, bro.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 10:19 | 1074975 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Replace 'thirty' with 'fifty' and you've nailed it.


Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:50 | 1073952 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

OT: It's beginning to look like Iran is in financial difficulty...

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:14 | 1074141 JohnG
JohnG's picture

I read that, mafia economy, lulz.

Good: Sanctions are working.

Bad: The saber rattling will soon begin, yet again.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:25 | 1074260 victor82
victor82's picture

It's heading towards the late spring in Lebanon and Iran is in trouble.

You know what that means, don't you?

Go long on Hezbollah. Time for the fabled "Second Round".

They've completely restocked on missiles, too. When the Iranian Regime is in a tight corner, they look to Nasrallah to bail them out.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:53 | 1073955 Oligarchs Gone Wild
Oligarchs Gone Wild's picture

Fox News host just referred to the banks as the "Banksters" when referring to the news on dividend approval.   Shep Smith seemed genuinely surprised and repeated "Banksters?".

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:19 | 1074044 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

this is "fox speak".  rupert "mr. burns" murdoch is signalling the FED as well the Justice Dept and the SEC  that he has safely liquidated all bank holdings.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:22 | 1074053 AhhhItBurns
AhhhItBurns's picture

I guess this will not be well recieved by the sycophant Fox News viewing demographic. I'd place a bet that there will be swift removal of that term from the anchor's vocabulary list.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:55 | 1073960 11b40
11b40's picture

A trillion here & a trillion there, and before long we'll be talking about some serious money.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 19:55 | 1073964 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

affirmative action math

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:03 | 1073985 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

I met a fairy today who said she would grant me one wish. 

"I want to live forever," I said.

"Sorry," said the fairy, "I'm not allowed to grant wishes like that!"

"Fine," I said, "then I want to die after Congress get's their heads out of
their asses!"

"You crafty bastard," said the fairy.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:04 | 1073991 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Tyler or anyone else, can you tell me what (Net Change in Operating Cash Balance) is on the 

DAILY TREASURY STATEMENT is. I noticed today they were all minus.


Net Change in Operating Cash Balance   $  -23,223 $  -60,404 $  -179,626


Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:23 | 1074056 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

you call is important to us;  please continue to hold for the first available operator...


...who will have no fuking idea what you are talking about!

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:57 | 1074107 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Withdrawals are more than deposits.

Spending more than you make.

It's like a credit card that you don't pay in full.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:03 | 1073992 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

just heard the biggest lie yet from NASA.

They have just put their first satellite around the planet Murcury. They claim they are looking for water...? Now in the early afternoon the temperature reaches a high of 800 °F (427 °C), hot enough to melt zinc and tin. How in the 'hell' are they expecting to find water?? I'm all for space exploration but don't give me a load of crap to justify it.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:05 | 1073996 Misean
Misean's picture

Damn! The money the government will earn on the interest it pays to the Feral Reserve ought to pull us out of deficit by 2025.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:12 | 1074014 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Over budget, giant deficits, over-population, unsustainable use of resources, no problem.  Mother Nature will always take care of these minor issues. 

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:12 | 1074021 Charlie Brown
Charlie Brown's picture

There is simply NO WAY that an additional $9.5 Trillion in Treasuries can be sold.

Consider that we're $14 Trillion debt right now -- they're talking about total debt loads of $23-25 Trillion within 8 years.

There are no buyers of that kind of size -- even in aggregate -- on the planet.

The ONLY way they'll be able to pimp that much debt is:

1. Have the US Fed buy Trillions of it.

2. Take the $10 Trillion in 401K's, IRA's, and similar plans and FORCE everybody with money in those plans to buy Treasuries.

That's it.

That's all the choice there is.

Anybody who disagrees is hereby invited to STATE CLEARLY where the hell else there is that kind of money sitting around, that the US Gov't can get their hands on.

Go ahead and junk me -- but you KNOW I'm right.

Pools of money OF THAT KIND OF SIZE ain't around, other than 401K and IRA plan aggregates.

Reality is that the bond market pukes FIRST.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:50 | 1074211 Backspin
Backspin's picture

Right on, Chuck.  That's it.  Right on both points.  They will go after the IRA's, and the Fed will basically be the T-bond market.  It's in the act of becoming that as we speak.


Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:36 | 1074357 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Of course they are going to go after the private retirement funds that comes with the inverted age pyramid-just wait till China's one child policy hits that paradox, it will make the similar problems in the western world extremely minor in comparison.


When everything else collapses with the end of QE, the money will goto the US bond market, is that clear enough?



They are already $14trillion in the hole and last I looked bond yields are lower with the nuclear meltdown not higher. Need any more perspective? In DEC 2008, pre POMO, they traded at under transaction costs. I don't think either of those two things are possible unless there is no reasonable alternative. But I know buy AU, buy AG and actually needing a medium of exchange is a myth, my grocer will really take it for payment at some point and not call the cops on me for trying.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 08:08 | 1074855 Charlie Brown
Charlie Brown's picture

Apologies to Tyler for replying here to my prior post, but this is worth your attention:

Contemplate, if you will, a $25 Trillion pile of debt -- which is where we're going to be in 8 years.

Now, contemplate a fairly low interest rate -- let's say 4% -- against that debt-load.

TOTAL INTEREST COST: $1 Trillion per year.

Let me mention again that this is what we're looking at within about 8 years. A Trillion Dollars a year in fucking interest costs alone.

(I personally think interest rates will be MUCH higher than 4%, but you can compute your own horror show from here.)

You ever have times where you weep within for your country...?


I feel such a sense of sadness at what this dumb fucking President has done to us economically that it fills my entire soul with misery.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 10:31 | 1074984 snowball777
snowball777's picture

There are no buyers of that kind of size -- even in aggregate -- on the planet.

Trichet, Shirakawa, and the PBOC? You think Ben is the only one with a printer?

I feel such a sense of sadness...

How'd you feel about Reagan and all three Bush terms? Always amusing that the debt is only problematic when "the opposition" is in power.

Enjoy your Medicare-sponsored drugs, tax breaks, foreign invasions, and (Bush-signed) bailouts. Your tax dollars "at work".

Wanna balance the budget? Pay higher taxes or shoot a senior in the head...your choice.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 11:42 | 1075150 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Every last bit of land has been used as collateral for the borrowing of money by the American Government that's why you pay property taxes , but the constitution says that the American people as a nation own that land so the banksters cannot take the land until America as the republic ceases to exist . Once America falls you loses all rights to stay on your property . The only way you can stop this is by becoming a sovereign citizen and not a federal citizen . Download "the errant sovereign's handbook " by Augustus Blackstone , and fight back without a shot fired and in doing so become an American again not a serf. 

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:14 | 1074028 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Deficits don't matter... Dick Chency Cir. 2000

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:42 | 1074203 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

"Reagan proved that deficits don't matter" -Dick Cheney March 2000

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:14 | 1074029 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Isn't that what the FED wants.  Is to make sure they print so much money that the United States owes more than it is worth.

In essence they own the United States and all of the earnings of the Us Workers FOREVER.


Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:17 | 1074036 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Don't worry, don't worry.  There's a debt ceiling.  Everything'll be fine.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:36 | 1074083 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Nuclear reactors have ceilings too, right up until they blow off in an unforseen explosion.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:48 | 1074094 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Debt = a promise to pay

Dollar = a promise to pay

Nuclear material = a health threat

Let's not let the rhetoric get out of control.  There's some stuff is actually really real. 

Debt and dollars?  Nah.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:24 | 1074167 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

That gives me an idea. I'd like to see someone challenge their debts in court on the grounds that they can't prove the money is real.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:29 | 1074182 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I've been telling my creditors they're wasting their time for years.  Most of them seem to have accepted this and left me alone--they don't want to spend the bucks on a lawyer. 

But on the off-chance I ever find myself in front of a judge again, I'll give it a shot and report back.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:59 | 1074111 Shameful
Shameful's picture

The only real debt ceiling is as high as they can store numbers on a computer.  So I figure the ceiling is probably around 1.187 * 10^4932.  I can only assume the dollar will be a smoking husk well before that point.  So got to look on the bright side, they will probably never hit the mathematical debt limit.  Hey we might even get lucky and they might be using only double precision in which case we slide in at 1.979 * 10^308.  For referance the current debt is roughly 1.4 * 10^13 so we still have a long way to go.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:29 | 1074178 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Well...ahem, the computer scientist in me say,

In LISP, numbers of arbitrary size can be expressed.

It's a long list of zeroes.


Sat, 03/19/2011 - 11:05 | 1074986 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Not specific to LISP (which is also bound by memory, disk, etc).

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:54 | 1074215 Backspin
Backspin's picture

For comparison, the total number of subatomic particles in the universe is about 10^80.  You're talking about some huge numbers.

Of course, no one in congress can comprehend these things.  10^80?  Hey, 80's not that much.  Let's put it in the budget.


Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:19 | 1074043 Yes We Can. But...
Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:57 | 1074112 nmewn
Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:25 | 1074060 JohnG
JohnG's picture

But then there's this:

And thus all this analysis is irrelevant.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:42 | 1074090 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

As if we will make it past 2012. What a joke.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:53 | 1074102 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

There just "zero's"....right...???

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 20:57 | 1074110 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Spitzer's 20:20 comment nails it dead on...!!! Buy some fucking gold and silver.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 11:08 | 1075011 snowball777
snowball777's picture

This will provide mild protection from inflation, prepare you for a world without fiat (yeah, right), but will not solve the core problem at all.


Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:00 | 1074115 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Well at least Obama smokes.

Hopefully he will be dead soon.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:01 | 1074226 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

To be replaced with Bush III?

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 00:29 | 1074442 rich_wicks
rich_wicks's picture

He is Bush III.

  • Patriot Act is still law
  • Both wars are still going on
  • Bailouts continuing
  • Warrantless wiretapping still going on
  • Guantanamo still open

He just tells different lies, and does the same thing as Bush did.  If the Republicans passed the same exact health care under a president McCain, Democrats would be saying it was a bill designed to advantage insurance companies, and nothing else.  Because that's what it is.

Obama is a neocon - how can anybody not recognize it?  Do you really think the Neocons give a crap about gays in the military?  Did this country really vote in democrats so we would be legally required to purchase health care, and so that people could be slightly more public about being homsexual in the military?

These are not really issues when the country is going bankrupt - they aren't even really issues people care about.  Well, smart people care about..

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 11:09 | 1075013 snowball777
snowball777's picture

So then Jeb is Bush IV.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:00 | 1074116 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Like it matters. The sooner joobux are laughed out of town the better.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:01 | 1074120 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

wow... I thought these comments where listed in order of time stamp......Nada......

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:06 | 1074125 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Fucking Joobux.


Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:29 | 1074177 baconator3000
baconator3000's picture

the jew reserve must fall. bernanke, greenspan, vocler, kohn, dudley. THEY ARE JEW DEBT PIGS. ITS PUBLIC KNOWLDGE

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:37 | 1074195 baconator3000
baconator3000's picture

go ahead and junk or whatever. but do your own research. Every federal reserve chairman except one has been jewish. all boards of governer are jewish. just like The wiemar people. this is an orchestrates destruction.face ot america. you are a puppet of zionism

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:04 | 1074229 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

you're not wrong. the joo gangsters have paid junkers on every sizable blog.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 12:11 | 1075299 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Why does every comment about Jews get junked , and why does ZH need a junk button . Watch this ,and have you noticed that these live broadcast from congress when they are on break it shows the American eagle but now it has the Jew star above it.Junk me junk me

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:30 | 1074181 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Obammy, hope and dope, making Jimmy Carter look like a good president.

Where is he during the Arab Rebellion and Japan Quake?  In Brazil doing the Samba.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:37 | 1074197 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

You all know that right wing nuts like myself are just trying to help you see thru the forest. Obugahole is just a banker figurehead.

All Talk, No Action.

Back in the day when the libs created this video, they didn't realise they were half right. " Who is next, it doesn't really matter"

Project of New American Century


We are all on the bankers payroll.




Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:38 | 1074199 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

you gotta ask why they even bother taxing people.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:45 | 1074207 honestann
honestann's picture

I know.  What's the point?

Especially if you want to boost economic activity... why bother?

The next step after eliminating personal income tax would be to stop borrowing from the Federal Reserve.  What's that about, anyway?  Paying a bunch of thieves interest for money you print yourself?  What the hell?

If the fiat insanity must continue, at least "cut the crap".

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:29 | 1074270 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

+1 - why does a sovereign country borrow it's own currency?

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:57 | 1074221 Backspin
Backspin's picture

To keep the people in line.  They have to know their place.  They have to be kept there.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:42 | 1074204 honestann
honestann's picture

You guys totally forgot about Bernanke and the government!

$    10T deficit per decade is a best case scenario.

$    20T deficit per decade is optimistic.

$    50T deficit per decade is wishful.

$  100T deficit per decade is possible.

$1000T deficit per decade is getting warmer.

The vanishment of the $ in the next decade is most probable.

And good riddens.

In gold we trust.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 21:46 | 1074208 Weimar Ben Bernanke
Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

By the end of this decade into the next we will be in horrible shape.  By that time we will spend more on interest then on defense and entitlement will be the same amount as the DoD budget. I guess having a warfare and welfare will lead towards bankruptcy.  The post-2020 fiscal outlook is downright apocalyptic, for two reasons. First, the aging of the U.S. population will drive sharp increases in health care costs (and at the same time, more Americans will be retired). Second, federal interest expense will rise exponentially, as the Treasury's borrowing costs grow with the debt. When this shit comes down it will be very ugly.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:01 | 1074224 Misean
Misean's picture

This is nothing a few extra heavy duty printers can't solve.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:34 | 1074275 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Well there are two options.

1. If a debt load is too high, default

2. If said debt, that comprise the load, is fraudulent, and it IS.  Glass-Steagall

1933 standard, not 1980 or pre 1999.

#2 is obviously the choice

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:44 | 1074290 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

No, 1913 is the starting point. Why does a sovereign country need to borrow its currency at all? 

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:32 | 1074360 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

It doesn't.

Gov't can utter credit.  Outside of the realm of any bank or bankster.

American Credit System (Hamiltonian)

Just saying, Glass-Steagall will rid it legally, then with it gone, legally, less of an opposition for switching over. Something like that.


Sat, 03/19/2011 - 11:43 | 1075152 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Please better inform yourself about the nature of Glass-Steagall. All it did was force banks to keep depositor money separate from investment and insurance activities (a good thing, but nothing at all to do with their ability to issue credit).

It's a good thing, but not the panacea you seem intent on making it out to be.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 22:57 | 1074305 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Went to the bank today and got one box o quarters - 500 bucks worth. Also got one box o dimes - 250 bucks.  Went through the quarters and found one standing liberty silver coin; very worn, worth only melt value, which is $6.38.

Through about 1/3 of the box o dimes and have found one great condition 1964 dime, worth about $2.55. (

Also got 3 boxes of nickels, soon to be discontinued by .gov for $300 dollars. Melt value of these comes to $414.00. These I salted away to keep; will someday maybe look through them for silver nickels (1942-1945).

So, at the cost of looking like a lunatic, I picked up some free silver and stocked some nickels that can only increase in value.

The 3 $25 dollar boxes of pennies I got are going to take much longer to go through, but hey, every copper one found is worth 0.028 cents or 284% of face value.

Also bought 2 more Silver Eagles ($40.30 per) at the coin shop on a whim - had some FRNs in the wallet and thought I could actually feel them evaporating.

Who would've thought I have a silver mine, right down the street in my local bank? Next up is to special order boxes of half dollars.

Also, there is a free app called magnifying light - that turns your iphone into a magnifying glass...with a light. Perfect for closely scrutinizing those coins that appear to be silver, or zeroing in on the year.

Can't wait to get back out on Monday!

Edit: One more thing, find and join a credit union that has a free coin counter.  I take a .50 cal ammo can full of change in once per week, get a credit printout that I deposit in my credit union account, and no hassles rolling coins.  Don't recommend trying to get rolls of coins where you cash them in, and besides credit unions rarely have much in the way of coin stock.



Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:00 | 1074311 Michael
Michael's picture

21st century miner. Lulz!

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 12:05 | 1075264 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Uh, you're barely covering the cost of the gas to get to the bank and the time spent rolling/inspecting coins at minimum wage, but if it keeps you off the streets and on drugs, have a good time.

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:06 | 1074323 sgorem
sgorem's picture

What the fuck! What's a couple trillion here or there, AND, who's the dunbass that thinks the good ole USA will even be here in 2021? The games

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:13 | 1074327 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Slowing the rate of decline will be seen as the only major achievement of the Fed when looking back. But choosing decline instead of reform will be seen as an error

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 23:30 | 1074353 sgorem
sgorem's picture

Two Mercury dimes bought a gallon of gas in 1950. Two Mercury dimes STILL BUY a gallon of gas today, with change back. Hello PM bashers..............................

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 00:14 | 1074426 rich_wicks
rich_wicks's picture

A dollar bill is 156 mm long.

We have a 14 trillion dollar debt.

14 trillion * 156 mm = 2,184,000,000,000 meters

121.417331 light minutes.

In comparison, the sun is about 8 light minutes away.

What's the point of even talking about the debt anymore.  We're obviously not going to pay it back.


Sat, 03/19/2011 - 00:14 | 1074431 Xkwisetly Paneful
Xkwisetly Paneful's picture

Urban America has been living under extreme oppression for 40yrs + now with no revolution, it is just spreading everywhere else now.


all that revolution talk is all hat no cattle.


as if the idea that any currency is more likely to make it to 2200 than the US dollar.

The predictions are hilarious but of course they don't come with any stake so may as well shoot for the sky, can't lose.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 00:53 | 1074479 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Its all an illusion. One piece of advice...Boys.. Stay off the Moors, Stick to the roads . The best of luck to ya.


Sat, 03/19/2011 - 07:00 | 1074810 Drag Racer
Sat, 03/19/2011 - 08:17 | 1074860 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

I have good news for anyone who sincerely believes

that there is going to be any budget for the US Government in 2021:


to wit,

Timothy Leary wants whatever you have been taking ....

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 10:46 | 1074997 XenOrbitalEnginE
XenOrbitalEnginE's picture


Could be used? Seem to remember that the U.S divided teams tried (so far) Bonds Across America, or "BAA", but because of politics, one side quit even though comments here suggest it's the only thing they can try? 

"You go first"! can halt the US system like a wall of bricks.

Anysameways, a perpetual at 2 1/3rd percent? Ought to compound! Any takers?

XOE.  (But I'm a genius in France!)

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 14:11 | 1075796 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

The US will issue AT LEAST $50 Trillion in new debt by 2021.

Simple math:

Average deficits of $950B per year (which is extrememly hopetimistic).

14 Trillion now.  Now assume 12% of the oustanding debt will have to be rolled every year....

2011 - 14*1.12+.950 = 16.63 (and so on) 

2011  - 16.63
2012  - 19.58
2013  - 22.87
2014  - 26.57
2015  - 30.71
2016  - 35.34
2017  - 40.53
2018  - 46.35
2019  - 52.86
2020  - 60.15
2021  - 68.32

That would be 54 Trillion in New debt, But the IMF predicted back in November (before they saw Congress's retarded proposed budget) that the US government's 2011 borrowing need would be 4.2 Trillion, so we should blow that 54 Trillion estimate completely out of the water.....


Sat, 03/19/2011 - 14:13 | 1075823 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Even DC knows this shit will never be repaid.

Sat, 03/19/2011 - 17:29 | 1076612 trendybull459
trendybull459's picture

There is one problem in the World,people became disconnected each with other and International govrnment and FED fighting us country buy country(it would be impossible without FED printed funds to do any military operation untill making order in own country instead making Chaos world wide continuely bumping commodities prices into our bills) making us slaves of their wishfull thinking mashines,people,unite on our blog and vote for FED existence,tell it yur friend or co-worker,it looks like every one hate FED,but in practice makes nothing to stop it from doing chaos in the world,take 5seconds and tell to the friend:

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!