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Consequences of the Mass. Election
I was watching the election results from Mass. with some people who
know history better than I. None of us could come up with a historical
parallel to the development that took place this evening. This one is
going to go down as one of those ‘water shed’ events that you hear about.
The TV guys are all talking about what this could mean to the health
care legislation. At this point, I could care less. I thought it was
dead before and I think it is deader now. What I care about is what
this means for some of the other significant issues that we face.
In my opinion the vote in Mass was a vote against the status quo. It
was a loud enough vote for everyone in D.C. to hear. If there was any
doubt that Americans are sick of the "same old, same old", this was it.
The message was clear to me, “If you want to keep your job as an
elected official you have to do things differently.” This will force
changes across the board. Some things outside of health care that I
think may be impacted:
-The days where the Fed and Mr. Bernanke get to establish broad
economic policy without taking into consideration the mood of the
public is over. This is not to suggest that the Fed is going to jack up
rates anytime soon. But to me it means that the possibility of QE2 is
done. There was a time when you might have said, “The American people
don’t understand their monetary policy and have know idea how much debt
has been created in their name”. Well that was then and this is now.
Americans do understand how much debt there is. They are shocked,
dismayed and angered. They’re a lot of everyday citizens who are well
aware that the Fed printed 2 trillion in the last year or so. The vote
in Natick Mass showed their dislike and distrust of Fed policy. While I
don’t think this will result in Bernanke failing to get a second term
in the upcoming vote, it just got a bit more uncertain. In many ways
this election will tie Ben’s hands.
-There is has been some discussion on a second stimulus bill. Those
like me who see weakness before this year is over were pushing for
that. Some big voices in the public and private sector are going to be
disappointed. There will be no second stimulus bill. Not in 2010 at
least. There is no stomach for that any longer. There are many
Congressmen and Senators who are up for reelection in ten months. They
are not going to stick there neck out for something the White House
wants and they know the people don’t. I doubt the administration will
even ask for a stimulus bill after this shellacking.
-I read the election result as being dollar positive. Somewhere inside
this vote tonight is a call for fiscal conservatism. We are going to
hear rhetoric to that effect in the coming months and we will see
legislative steps that at least give lip service to the idea that we
aught to tighten our belt a few notches. To the extent that I am right
by calling this dollar positive, you have to also think that it is a
gold negative development. For those that love the yellow metal and
hate the dollar take heart. Any positive impact to dollar will be short
lived. The inability to put a second stimulus together will show up in
all of our numbers by midyear. At that point it will be more clearly
understood that the US is broke and there really aren’t any viable
options that don’t entail a lot time and pain.
-Tim Geithner’s ship went down in Massachusetts. I am convinced that he
now must go. The Administration will have to make changes after this
vote. They have to show that they are being responsive. The beating the
WH took tonight was biblical. So will their response be. It will take a
month, but changes and heads will roll.
-I am sure that all the stock pundits are going to read this evening’s
results good for the broad market averages. I have been skeptical of
this for a while. But not any longer. The stock market looks six months
ahead. It will soon be sensing the next economic slowdown soon. I would
not say the market is a screaming short. It is not, yet. It just got
closer however.
-I can see how some health care companies might see a pop in their
stocks for a few days. This group I would short. The absence of a
health care deal is actually bad for them in my opinion. Give that a
week at best.
-There will be no fix on Social Security this year. Mr. Goss who runs
that shop has said that the issues facing SS have to take a back burner
to finding a fix to health care. Well, we have not found that elusive
solution. And now it is farther away then ever. Mr. Goss will have to
wait at least another year. That will prove to be a devastating delay.
-There will be no significant steps to address the problems at the
mortgage Agencies; Fannie, Freddie and FHA. The reason is simple. If
you wanted to address the problems with these dogs you have to owe up
to the fact that it is a $500 billion dollar sinkhole. Who would want
to put that bad news on the table after getting your ass kicked in a
crucial election? The answer to that is that no one in Washington
would. And no one will. Having said that, I would not be at all
surprised to see an effort to cut the outrageously rich compensation
packages for the big shots at Fannie and Freddie. There may have been
some belief that these two companies were in the private sector where
salaries have no caps. But now there will be those in Congress that
want/need an election edge. What could be a better edge than to beat up
on a bunch of fat cat D.C. bankers?
-We have several states that are on the edge of a fiscal crisis. I
thought that there would be some form of Federal assistance for them
this year. That may still come, but it is now much less likely. You
can’t just help NY and Cali. Those States will simply have to cut their
deficits the old fashioned way, by cutting expenses. There is no way
the folks in Texas are going to let Federal dollars be used to bail out
TBTF States. And no one in Congress is going to stand up to that.
-If you were a TBTF institution you just hated this vote. This is bad
for the Citi’s and BoA’s, but it just downright terrible for the likes
of GS. The more successful you are, the more crap that you will have to
take. Washington knows that Americans hate their banks. Now Washington
is going to take sides with the people and lean on the TBTFs even
harder.
-The bailout mentality is over. If GM needed a handout today, they
would not get it. If a company runs into difficulty in the future they
will just go down. There is no will left for the bailout thinking. If
you are a legislator and you support a bailout, you will lose you right
to vote in Washington. The voters will take you out back and shoot you
on Election Day.
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I have familiarity with the Lew Rockwell site and a number of the contributors there.
I'm going to boil it down to something simple.
"Mainstreet" becomes more aware, every day. And they know that all the bullshit strategies/tactics/ropeadope recently shoveled by TPTB would NEVER work in their own homes. So, if it won't work on a small scale, why would it ever work on a large scale.
Down here in Tennessee we say, "that dog don't hunt".
...strategies/tactics/ropeadope recently shoveled by TPTB...
delete "recently". This crap has been going on for years.
+hunting dogs
Banks also hate the result because it likely kills Cap "n" Trade, which is their next big scam to tie in with the global warming hysteria.
Also, re: state crisis, look out for Illinois as they are going bankrupt shortly.
+1
I wish I had read this before I posted on the same issue under "Front Running." My take is similar but also different. There is racism in the Democratic party and in the Democratic leadership that is blockading Obama's agenda - the one he was elected on.
We need healthcare reform, but the form it took was a abomination. Reid and Pelosi have to quit trying to be President and Vice President. That is not the job to which they were elected.
Washington's "Plantation Mentality" needs to be exposed to the light of day. We need a national discourse if we are to slip the bonds of racism.
Arrogance - don't worry about any change in DC.
It would also produce a polite way to remove old warhorses and scoundrels.
How about for Senate elections the major two parties have to offer 2 candidates each, and they have to promote & lobby for both candidates on an equal financial basis. By splitting the vote, that would level the playing field a little for the independent candidates who are the only hope there is for busting the system.
Any shenannigans by central party to bias in favour of one of the pair will result in striking out of both.
Find a way to make that work.
Republicans....Democrats.....
Who cares!
You folks are missing the important prurient details.
Scott Browns wife, Gail Huff was SMOKIN hot in her day.
To appreciate you must watch:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3JNyIPJEuM&feature=PlayList&p=C34FF5E550...
Granted, Digney Fungus is (justifiably) only remembered on the South Shore and this was recorded before most of you were born.
but you have to see the money shot at 2:02.
She's bringing it!
LOL!
I thought, na, I've got better things to do. Then, after a second or two, ships going down anyway, might as well check it out.
JEEZ! With an expression like that I wonder when she first started! And then I noticed what the guy was singing about - and it's still family friendly.
The expression is matchless. I haven't seen a better 'look' in any topical NSFW locations anywhere on the web. She could have been a pro. She was\is a really stunning woman. He daughters are testament to the genes.
In days gone by you used to see her in the old Elliot lounge (of Boston Marathon fame) and at Doyles in the days when the Orange line ran OVER the place. She also frequented the Beachcomber in Wellfleet. Man, the place used to go silent when she walked in!
Will Brown have the humility to see he is the lessor evil? I doubt it. The two party system can function just fine with ALL one term politicians so we are screwed. The people are angry. Beware they don't start removing politicians before the end of their one term.
Wait until the idiot starts with the 911 terror bag of shit; the scanners in airports, the "we have to fight them there to so we don't have to fight them here" nonsense, the support of terrorizing Muslim patsies, let's bomb Iran, etc.
Dude's uplift is toast within 6 months.
Oh yeah, let's get Rudy to weigh in. That'll sell.
"In my opinion the vote in Mass was a vote against the status quo......The message was clear to me, “If you want to keep your job as an elected official you have to do things differently.”
Wrong. Unless by "status quo" you mean how 12 months of Democratic control has played out. Partisanship is worse now. Legislative transparency is worst now. Cash / goodies / tax breaks for votes is worse now. Government expansion is worse now. Deficit spending is worse now. So elected officials are doing things "differently" then before 2009. It's just the majority of voters don't like it (although 47% in Mass seem to love it).
Obama jerked the reins to the left upon election (while inconsistent with his campaign, it is consistent with his character). This is a reaction against that.
This was NOT about bank angst. Brown clearly stated he is against the Obama tax on banks. You think anyone in Mass who is livid at banks can live with Brown's clear position on that tax?? No way.
Despite whether Mass voters think national healthcare affects them directly, a) they were not supportive of the content of Obamacare and b) more importantly hated the process (no transparency, goodies / breaks for friends of Democrats, etc).
i agree. the homosexual drug addict, rush limbaugh, was on the radio today proclaiming that is not the case. the vote was a vote against the democrats. he doesn't get it. people are mad and fed up, even in the people's republic of taxachusetts. what they got when they voted for this man, is another disappointment. what they are not seeing is that these people who run for office these days are controlled. but they are learning....... and fast i hope.
Agreed with most. Unfortunately, the only real alternative to the Democrat stooge was a Republican meathead.
Romney on the podium and filial approval of John McCain shows how short-lived Scott Brown's stock rise will be.
Romney on the podium and filial approval of John McCain shows how short-lived Scott Brown's stock rise will be.
Yup. Same old shit.
Let's hear it for CNBS's Jim Cramer who said that a Brown win would result in a massive stock market rally!
LOL!
Just another puppet in marianet land. Sooner than later he will get the hand out of his butt so he can grab a few strings to keep in the show.
One comment - TERM LIMITS!
In a nation of 300M+ why do we have a senate of 100 people enjoying 20 years in office? Are these the only 100 people in the country who can do the job? Let's get real.
Gimp - You normally put up excellent commentary, but this time ya missed it. The only thing term limits do is detract from the particular politician from getting their crumbs. Term limits won't change who writes legislation, how it gets enacted or how the rule of law will be adhered to.
Miles- you are the man, but I've gotta call ya to task here...
IMO, the longer politicians stay in office, the more tricks they learn, and the more shenanigans they're capable of pulling off. Given enough time, grandiose schemes (like 5000 earmarks on one bill) become the norm.
To give you an analogy, one of my best friends is an instructor at Fort Lewis (two Iraq tours). He told me, once after basic and a second time after his first Iraqi tour, that if he knew now what he knew then, he would have done things totally differently- all of which to his advantage.
I think that the same is true with politicians. The more familiar they become with the process, the more apt they are to abuse and exploit the process. And I could be totally wrong, but that's what I've come to see in how most things in life turn out.
I do agree that, fundamentally, the legislative process will not change. But, I feel that the amount of abuse would decrease.
+1, to Miles, too.
I think the solution is a completely unfettered Press. One that investigates even itself in order to stamp abuses and influences out of existence. If the people have access to the "boots on the ground" information we will have a more free society.
If the People believe a certain outlet is abusive their revenue will drop. There should be a very clear line between entertainment and information.
The politicians only deploy the tricks they learn from those that also happen to write their legislation for them. I happen to believe that the newer politicians get abused far more easily and as a result try even harder to make their K Street masters happy and accepting of them. Ultimately, the system is so corrupt it really doesn't matter much. After all, earmarks total around what, 10 billion a year. Hell, that's is less than SocGen got from the previous administration on the AIG back door reach around. So, there it is.... I hear ya saying that 10 billion is a lot of money and I agree with you. I am just saying it matters not an old dog or a new one, the end result is the same +/- various crumbs. After all:
Innocence creates my hell....
Can't argue with ya, brother. We're really just splicing hairs at this point.
Have you ever gone back and read The Federalist Papers where our Founding Fathers warned against all of this shit? Amazing to think of what they fought so hard to gain independence from, only to become something even more convoluted and corrupt.
they were amazing gifted men, that lived in a certain time and in a certain place and they helped us get something no one in the world had up until that point, ever seen. did this happen by accident? i say no. so then, what shall we do now? let it die? let it go away. God forbid it. the 3 percent out here in the void are waiting for a sign. they are waiting until the time is right. We see them as they are. We see what is happening. We know their corruption and their lies. We know their treason. We know that they will never go away unless they are made to go away permanently. These are times that try men's souls. How much longer shall we sit and watch the destruction of this land, that was secured for us so long ago by men who knew the forces that were the real powers in this world but nevertheless, did the right thing for posterity. Shall we sit and let all their effort and hard work go to naught. God forbit it. Please God, let the people see and let them hear and help them to understand the gravity of the situation. The time is now and now is the time.
Just don't overlook the fact it was the Anti-Feds and Jefferson that stood so adamantly opposed to potential centralization of power away from the states and individual. Their gift to all of humanity was The Bill of Rights.
Absolutely. A little bit more for ya:
http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/910687.html
Great link. It's tricky, because in some ways I actually start to like Hamilton, but even Greenspan was Great in '66. Here are some excerpts, which in my opinion are some of the most ominous in view of our modern predicament:
When asked of his greatest achievement Andrew Jackson, a follower of Jefferson, replied:
Oh the irony! Hamilton opened Pandora's Box:
More irony yet: Hamilton was an agent of the banks:
Hey, they didn't specifically tell us we couldn't! That's like your wife telling you it was never made specific she couldn't sleep with your brother! Okay, maybe a stretch. Never trust the Treasury Secretary to go unsupervised.
Do you really want to give carte blanche power to somebody like this:
I'll stop. I love it when people tell me to read more history. "Yeah. I'm tryin'!"
For all you tin-foil hatters out there note that it's the U of Chicago.
Dupe.
Better to reign in campaign finance, which ensures massive media spin and exposure domination, to allow the People to truly elect who they feel will best fight for their interests.
But, alas, I cannot disagree with Unscarred because allowing our legislators to handle it now is a conflict of interest. The Press isn't the Press anymore, it's the Media, so our countrymen will have no idea what is going on no matter what happens, as usual.
Repeal the 17th, re-assert States' right of sovereignty from the centralized gov't the Founding Fathers tried to protect us from under the 10th, and let's roll up our sleeves and sharpen our pencils. They probably have not taught the importance of State sovereignty for decades. I mean, that's what I would suggest, but my view of any future progress is quite cynical.
I wholehearted agree with you. But don't hold your breath waiting for it- Congress would need to legislate that for/on/against themselves. The longer they stick around, the lesser the odds of them being productive and beneficial to society, and the greater the odds of them becoming severely corrupt.
+1000
I have said the same thing for 20 years! There is something profoundly wrong with a system given the fact that there are millions of qualified people capable of real leadership, and all we end with are these stupid "dynasties" like the Kennedy family and the Bush family. Puke.
bruce,
dig this.
he will vote for health care even though he campaigned against it. so make sure you know this. trust me. he will. he is nothing but a shabbat goy. remember. the people who voted for him wanted change. and like obama, they will get change, whatever the present definition of that term is now.....
"we aught to tighten our belt a few notches."
Aught...really? You ought to learn to spell because it looks like you know aught.
My copy editor is responsible for this mistake. After the election results came in she started drinking hard. It's possible that illegal substances were involved as well. Anyway she was down for the count before I finished. Sorry for the error. Be sure that the appropriate punishment will be meted out.......
Bruce, you place entirely too much faith in the Republican Party.
I'm all for "sending a message to D.C." but we're out of choices. We had two "tsunami" elections in 2006 and 2008. Now in 2010. Are we going to whipsaw between the two failed parties every two years?
Despite the waste and corruption, there is some actual business that needs to get done in D.C. sometimes. There isn't a leader in sight.
At this point, I don't see how replacing one party with the other gains us anything. Do we really believe that suddenly Republicans are "fiscally conservative"? I don't.
+1000
I so completely agree with that sentiment -- the two party system is failing us. This is the UNITED states, yet the two parties are locked in an intractible game of trying to divide the map into plots of red and blue.
I want honesty. I want less government. I want accountability. I get neither from either party.
+1
Disagree with several of the conclusions.
- Regarding Fed policy, I don't think the typical voter here in Mass understands any better the role of the Fed. Thus I dont see the impact on Ben that you do.
- While I agree that we will hear rhetoric about fiscal conservatism, that will merely translate into tax cuts without substantive spending cuts. Health care costs will not be reined in and nor will defense spending.
- I dont think that TBTF banks are as harmed by this. My informal assessment of voters I know here in Mass shows that they blame congress and "regulators" more than GS or Citi and Scott Brown will be a 'good' Republican and oppose any Obama financial reform plans.
Agree that:
- No more stimulus; no more bailouts; no SS fix; no healthcare fix; no significant mortgage agency reform.
That win was for you Valerie Jarrett, and for you Van Jones.
That win was a response to the attempt to radicalize a country.
That win was for trying to turn a 234 year old country into something it is not.
That win was a warning shot to a stunningly tone deaf administration.
Obama: Turn yourself into something that you are not; We won't do that. Otherwise just quit.
One more positive result from this election - it removes Lieberman from being #60, and all the ass kissing that went with that distinction.
Lieberman! Now there is one of Nature's Natural Noblemen!
He needs to be out of government today. He is completely qualified to be the assistant to the personnel manager of a wastewater plant.
Fuck Lieberman.
True that.
That turd is qualified to be processed inside of a wastewater plant.
Barney Fwank applauded the drop from 67 to 60, and then said it's anti-Democratic and, "God didn't create the filibuster."
I think he is using the ambiguity of whether or not he meant anti-democracy, which in this case is fine because the Founding Fathers created a Constitutional Republic, not mob rule, or anti-Democrat, to his advantage.
Oh! the befuddled minds of our peers. Have we forgotten the intent of a bicameral legislative process?
The fact remains that there will be a whole lot more of that going on.. I am just so overwhelmingly happy that Arlen Specter gets to enjoy his decision as well.