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Consequences of the Mass. Election
I was watching the election results from Mass. with some people who
know history better than I. None of us could come up with a historical
parallel to the development that took place this evening. This one is
going to go down as one of those ‘water shed’ events that you hear about.
The TV guys are all talking about what this could mean to the health
care legislation. At this point, I could care less. I thought it was
dead before and I think it is deader now. What I care about is what
this means for some of the other significant issues that we face.
In my opinion the vote in Mass was a vote against the status quo. It
was a loud enough vote for everyone in D.C. to hear. If there was any
doubt that Americans are sick of the "same old, same old", this was it.
The message was clear to me, “If you want to keep your job as an
elected official you have to do things differently.” This will force
changes across the board. Some things outside of health care that I
think may be impacted:
-The days where the Fed and Mr. Bernanke get to establish broad
economic policy without taking into consideration the mood of the
public is over. This is not to suggest that the Fed is going to jack up
rates anytime soon. But to me it means that the possibility of QE2 is
done. There was a time when you might have said, “The American people
don’t understand their monetary policy and have know idea how much debt
has been created in their name”. Well that was then and this is now.
Americans do understand how much debt there is. They are shocked,
dismayed and angered. They’re a lot of everyday citizens who are well
aware that the Fed printed 2 trillion in the last year or so. The vote
in Natick Mass showed their dislike and distrust of Fed policy. While I
don’t think this will result in Bernanke failing to get a second term
in the upcoming vote, it just got a bit more uncertain. In many ways
this election will tie Ben’s hands.
-There is has been some discussion on a second stimulus bill. Those
like me who see weakness before this year is over were pushing for
that. Some big voices in the public and private sector are going to be
disappointed. There will be no second stimulus bill. Not in 2010 at
least. There is no stomach for that any longer. There are many
Congressmen and Senators who are up for reelection in ten months. They
are not going to stick there neck out for something the White House
wants and they know the people don’t. I doubt the administration will
even ask for a stimulus bill after this shellacking.
-I read the election result as being dollar positive. Somewhere inside
this vote tonight is a call for fiscal conservatism. We are going to
hear rhetoric to that effect in the coming months and we will see
legislative steps that at least give lip service to the idea that we
aught to tighten our belt a few notches. To the extent that I am right
by calling this dollar positive, you have to also think that it is a
gold negative development. For those that love the yellow metal and
hate the dollar take heart. Any positive impact to dollar will be short
lived. The inability to put a second stimulus together will show up in
all of our numbers by midyear. At that point it will be more clearly
understood that the US is broke and there really aren’t any viable
options that don’t entail a lot time and pain.
-Tim Geithner’s ship went down in Massachusetts. I am convinced that he
now must go. The Administration will have to make changes after this
vote. They have to show that they are being responsive. The beating the
WH took tonight was biblical. So will their response be. It will take a
month, but changes and heads will roll.
-I am sure that all the stock pundits are going to read this evening’s
results good for the broad market averages. I have been skeptical of
this for a while. But not any longer. The stock market looks six months
ahead. It will soon be sensing the next economic slowdown soon. I would
not say the market is a screaming short. It is not, yet. It just got
closer however.
-I can see how some health care companies might see a pop in their
stocks for a few days. This group I would short. The absence of a
health care deal is actually bad for them in my opinion. Give that a
week at best.
-There will be no fix on Social Security this year. Mr. Goss who runs
that shop has said that the issues facing SS have to take a back burner
to finding a fix to health care. Well, we have not found that elusive
solution. And now it is farther away then ever. Mr. Goss will have to
wait at least another year. That will prove to be a devastating delay.
-There will be no significant steps to address the problems at the
mortgage Agencies; Fannie, Freddie and FHA. The reason is simple. If
you wanted to address the problems with these dogs you have to owe up
to the fact that it is a $500 billion dollar sinkhole. Who would want
to put that bad news on the table after getting your ass kicked in a
crucial election? The answer to that is that no one in Washington
would. And no one will. Having said that, I would not be at all
surprised to see an effort to cut the outrageously rich compensation
packages for the big shots at Fannie and Freddie. There may have been
some belief that these two companies were in the private sector where
salaries have no caps. But now there will be those in Congress that
want/need an election edge. What could be a better edge than to beat up
on a bunch of fat cat D.C. bankers?
-We have several states that are on the edge of a fiscal crisis. I
thought that there would be some form of Federal assistance for them
this year. That may still come, but it is now much less likely. You
can’t just help NY and Cali. Those States will simply have to cut their
deficits the old fashioned way, by cutting expenses. There is no way
the folks in Texas are going to let Federal dollars be used to bail out
TBTF States. And no one in Congress is going to stand up to that.
-If you were a TBTF institution you just hated this vote. This is bad
for the Citi’s and BoA’s, but it just downright terrible for the likes
of GS. The more successful you are, the more crap that you will have to
take. Washington knows that Americans hate their banks. Now Washington
is going to take sides with the people and lean on the TBTFs even
harder.
-The bailout mentality is over. If GM needed a handout today, they
would not get it. If a company runs into difficulty in the future they
will just go down. There is no will left for the bailout thinking. If
you are a legislator and you support a bailout, you will lose you right
to vote in Washington. The voters will take you out back and shoot you
on Election Day.
»
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From Kansas (Topeka) I think Wilderman (above) has it right.
Unfortunately, I don't think that this administration will accept the results for what they are or what they mean.
Instead of accepting responsibility for what has (or has not) happened, it is blaming Cokely--who was just a symbol for the failure of what is hapening.
Obama scammed us all big time. We need to learn from this.
If the economy does not improve, there could be a serious political crisis in the U.S....and it's hard to see how the economy will improve.
If the system is irrevocably broken, is this election really significant on any major level? It seems to me that as much as it is an indicator, the political economy of the US is so f*&^%ed up that no amount of 'signalling' from the electorate is going to stop what was set in motion in late '08.
It is broken beyond repair. The continuing "elections" covered and analyzed in depth by "the media" is just everyone sticking to their assignments until they receive new orders.
I wholeheartedly agree. The bailout culture that took over late 2008 will continue unabated. Invariably Dems will see their big problem as one of communication and message. We saw some of that with Obama's hopeless "fat cats" comment.
One of the failings at Rome's collapse was the focus on rhetoric in academia and public discourse. We now suffer from the same narrow mindedness and our leaders have collectively forgotten how to DO and ACT. Even the Fed now puts public perception as a key monetary tool. More time and attention is put into the statements and public posture of the Fed than any of the spaghetti-on-wall strategies they've come up with.
Expect Dems all up and down the leadership to bemoan certain misconceptions and highlight the need to focus on certain messages. Do not expect any Dem from the President on down to actually DO anything different, as that would communicate weakness (according to any political communications strategist).
IMHO the Dems should just get rid of the filibuster and ram through their agenda...cause I can guarantee thats what will happen in 2012 but under a different party.
While I firmly believe that the Mass vote was about the bankers,the MSM is already coming up with the "health care" execuse. Well I don't believe that,for a simple reason,because Mass itself has a state mandated health care initiative. So for them to be discontent over that issue will be very hypocratical. I think all the previous lost elections for dems were about one and only one issue:The anger over the full control of Wall St. of DC.
I agree that the administration has taken notice, but their response will be different. Remember how little kids act when they have gotten in trouble? They deny anything happened and act as if nothing happened. That is the way of politicians, liars and thieves.
What is going to be more influential in the Fed's decision to forgo QE2, the lack of political will, or an improved economic outlook given that ambitious bills on healthcare, cap-and-trade, and higher tax rates are going to be scaled back?
Even with healthcare and cap-and-trade dead the headwinds facing our economy are monsterous. We are talking about a difference in the size of iceburgs and our economy is the Titanic. A great and mighty ship that even God couldn't sink until well he did!
We will still be running 17+ U6 does anyone think that congress will suddenly cut unemplyment benifits.
Taxes will still be going up as the Bush cuts expire. We might not get massive increase's but a fairer implementation of them where those under 250k revert also but regardless taxes are going up.
The other problems such as Fannie, Freddie, SS, The states looming defaults, Medicare, Pension and Medicade will still kill us its just a matter of how slow we will bleed out.
It is a real bad time to be an incumbent.
Guys in power bad; outsiders good.
Worked against Bush and the Republicans, worked for Obama and the Democrats in 2008.
Worked for Obama and against Hillary in the 08 primaries.
Worked for Brown in Mass., will probably work for Palin, Huckabee, etc. in 2012. I have a hard time seeing Obama engineer a repeat of the Reagan comeback/turn-around from '82 to '84. Obama's only chance is if the Republicans regain control of Senate or House later this year.
Expect lots of churn all over the country at all levels of government. It doubt it will correlate with party; instead it will correlate with states in fiscal trouble and/or high unemployment.
The electorate's "pissed off" rating has been on a slow but steady increasing trend. Will only accelerate this decade. I can't imagine why anyone would want to win an election any time in the next decade. We are still a long way from organizing the political will/consensus to affect a real change.
"will probably work for Palin, Huckabee, etc. in 2012" Probably a good estimate. Those two would be perfect during the martial law event that will occur when people finally take to the streets. Citizens of a third world country dressed in designer clothing driving late model cars (until the gas stations shut down) with a "what the fuck happened look" on their faces. The videos will be shown abroad and the laughter will be deafening.
This time period can not be compared to '82 to '84 by any stretch of the imagination. The game was far from complete then but the masters made great strides during the Reagan period. Almost perfecting the scenario but not quite there yet.
By '97 - '98 the mastery had evolved to its highest form. All that was left was to set the events in motion that would obliterate the system. We see it now today. We are now witnessing the time that has been planned for by the money elite for close to a century.
Anyone who thinks the Bilderbergers and Trilateralists give a rats ass about our sorry existence is completely delusional.
They will try to exterminate us.
Didnt Huckabee as Governor pardon that psychotic who gunned down four law enforcement officers near Seattle recently?
Palin?
The videos will be shown abroad and the laughter will be deafening.
True that. The terrorists must be quite pleased watching all this. And Satan.
Btw, if it werent for Haiti's misfortune, we might not have ever seen Bush's face again. Why do you imagine that is?
A better question is why do you think I even care why that is?
The system is finished.
jim sinclair on the mass election
Final Thought For Today:
there are two things you can be absolutely sure of.
1. A total panic over unemployment with untold amounts of dollars being thrown at the economy.
2. If "BB" Ben Bernanke moves one inch off the "QE to Infinity" track, the Fed will be closed down two days later.
If you think any of that is dollar positive or gold bearish, you are bonkers.
Doesn't mean we won't see another round of deflation before inflation.
+1 (or NOT-Junk, !Junk, whatever)
+1
Deflation first and inflation later is my bet.
Stocks deflating today...
This analysis makes less sense to me than the one presented in the article above. I do worry that this is only the case because I want Bruce's analysis to be the correct one, however.
the smell lol is the same old same old .
can any one 15 years old or older not see through these political statements..
the powers are now in secret meetings.. gaming the emotional appeal.. the usa is on to a third world wet rag.. the tilt is to the east.
best hold on to your ankles if you think this mASS VOTE MEANS SQUAT
Fleshlight now bouncing off the Caps Lock key.
This is an embarrassment. It won't amount to anything more than that. The administration is already weak and apparently incompetent; this won't make it any weaker or any more effective. Carry on.
The Dems are going to get killed in the mid terms. The market will sniff this out very early. When that happens (and who knows, it may start tomorrow) this market will get crushed.
Why is it that the economists/stratagists who saw the debt implosion are now backing away from the market dropping below 666? Rosenberg, Faber, etc saw this whole thing coming. I see the market topping due to the fact these experts are capitulating on their forecasts. This market will go below 666. It is inevitable. This is not a doom and gloom call, it is a reality driven call.
Once we wipe out and restructure a huge chunk of the debt at the household and biz levels, and reduce dramatically the private sector debt, we can begin to have real growth. I bet we could be on the path to real growth in 2-3 years. That's what I'm hoping for.
I thought the call was for below 666 in 2010.
2011 should see new lows.
radical political change is now essential to deal with the radical economic restructuring going on at the global level. Do I smell a real opening for the "third way"?
the political class are identical .. the hope of salvation is not in the bounds of a vote.
these bleating sounds are found every election.. nothing changes ,, the power resides in the money folks.. republican ... democrat.. two sides of a square coin.
will this stop random searches of the body parts at airports.. the insane wars .. the lies and distortains that got as thier . people wake up ..
these feely touchy political expressions are lost in the haze of reality.
the fed is easing, the debt is going up. 22% unemployment ... the politicains best get out of the way.
enough of this messiah complex of the system being the answer. the mass of politicans are bought and paid for, do you think the powers that decide the vote results will stand by and let a honest vote decide matters..
then heres a bridge ..
these limited vision editorials on political change are a pizz in the ocean ,, a spit in the creek . an expression of a mad hatter ,,
The foundation is rotten to the core , the industrial military complex is out of sight out of hand. the rumblings of freedoms losts. obama still has the supreme court vote next.
what will change but a handfull of sobbing hearts yearning for a political answer .
Can a lump of wood provide light for 60 years of political deceit. The Harvard marxist economic model . in retreat .. sure..
monetary infusion the name of the game . here we go round the mulberry bush ..
the republicans if they take over will be the same .
or where have you all been the last twenty years ,,
blind dumb and happy
How in the world could anyone junk the must truthful comment in the thread??
Because rather than refute, provide an alternative view, or even just type: "i disagree with what u sez", they junk.
I always gotta read the junked posts - it's pretty obvious which mentality is junking under different circumstances. Junking is a neon sign, "must read!", for the crowd that has plenty of time on their hands.
Junking should be reserved for the crap posts, but, alas, we have children running around in here. Not that I don't sometimes act like a child myself. Your post is a must read, so I junked you.
It's not like they have a choice between "junk", "like" and "dislike".
We only get "junk". What a shocker that it gets clicked on frequently. You also can't UN-click it.
I've proposed they replace "junk" with "like", "dislike" and "spam" to ZH at least twice. This way users could set their threshold to only allow posts that had less than (e.g.) 10 dislikes, etc.
Funny that we seem to be having the same problem getting heard on ZH that we do in Warshingtun.
I'm pretty sure you can UN-junk someone. I've junked a couple of comments by accident (fat fingers, and such) - just clicked on the junk link again and viola! No more junk.
From ground zero - this was independents tossing the Democrats under the bus in droves. The same people Bush 43 drove away from the GOP in '04 flocked to Scott Brown yesterday. I talked to many people at the polls after they voted (it's never cool to talk with them just before they vote), and it pretty much came down to 1) kill "healthcare reform" deader than dead, bury it, and then salt the earth so it can never come bacl, 2) end multi-trillion dollar deficits, and 3) get unemployment down or we're going to dice you all up 5-ways from Sunday.
A couple of things that literally never came up:
1) The wars
2) Abortion, or any other social issues
3) George Bush
docj - you've got your "boots on the ground" there right now, yes? Was it you that mentioned it was going to be interesting to see what happens in Fwanks domain? I think you're right: the Republicans are coopting this but it's really a victory for the independents, whatever their intensity. I don't really care about what happens on Capitol Hill anymore anyway - I'm just glad to see further entrenchment of dissent. It's the willingness to dissent, even if Olbermann says "tea-bagger" 50 times an hour.
Indeed, I live just south of Boston. I was at the polls most of the day yesterday.
I was not the one who mentioned what would happen in Barney Mumbles' district, but I don't think that was much of a surprise.
We were handing out tea (as in, brewed, hot) at a rally in the center of town on Saturday. Almost everyone "got it", didn't care if that labeled them a "tea-bagger" or whatever. And yeah, I'm a Republican - I think they suck a little less than the Democrats - and really, we're pretty much a 3rd-party in MA already, so it still feels like an insurgent movement.
I do know and like Scott Brown quite a bit, though. We're not bowling buddies or anything like that, but it doesn't take long speaking with the man to figure out what you see is what you get. I really hope this Mr. Smith isn't changed by going to Washington, it will be very disappointing (not my first ride on that merry-go-round, either, unfortunately).
ROFLCOPTER
One can't really argue with free...but at the same time I feel ya, some sort of thumbs up/down system would be a solid improvement.
thuggin'
Sid the Communist
+1000
e. e. cummings explains the Fabian Society.
+1
Is there something wrong with your keyboard?
Thorazine! Now its for breakfast, lunch and dinner! Yum!
Ok, my bad. Clearly his fleshlight is resting on the space bar.
I appreciate the thoughts, but I don't believe that the incumbents on either side are going to take this to heart yet. Not enough to matter, anyway.
The US is still very much a welfare state and that's not gonna change because one bad candidate screwed up a highly winnable election. Sure, some of the weaker ones or the few with real survival instincts are going to correctly gauge how the wind is blowing, but they also know that like real wind it changes direction, goes away, blows harder sometimes, etc.
I wouldn't bet too hard on the TBTF's being allowed to fail -- there are still plenty of union goons putting too much money in these thieves' pockets. The ones who know they're toast have nothing to lose, so you can bet they'll go along with the Community Organizer's 5-year plan, and they'll line their pockets as much as they can in the coming year.
Also not sure how much this is going to translate to other states. If Mass didn't already have a crushing healthcare program of its own Coakley would have still cakewalked to the seat. Other states won't have that be a nonissue, and I don't have faith that there are enough small-gov't voters to stem the tide.
The iceberg has hit, we're sinking, but the voters won't head for the lifeboats until they feel the cold water.
This is probably the best comment on the entire thread. Very well thought out, impeccably written, with just the right balance of insight and wit. A real pleasure to read.
"The iceberg has hit, we're sinking, but the voters won't head for the lifeboats until they feel the cold water."
Where I live (NW US), we felt the meltwater around our gonads two years ago. The water's getting deep enough now to affect those on higher ground ,formerly the status quo and/or upper middle class. My father, a successful TX doctor, has recently converted to what were previously "hard right" principles, such as gun ownership and practice, concern over what implements to purchase prior to the advent of anarchy, and other highly anti-typical (of generally well-to-do retirees) behaviors.
Most of America is scared, and will continue to vote for those who proclaim to be most against the staus quo, or who profer some prospect of 'return to the good 'ol days', when our economy ran on production of goods.
Those days are gone. Period. In order to move to the next best thing, we need to elect leaders beyond the party paradigm. I know nothing of Brown, other than that he means to kill the current healthcare bill, and for that, god bless his soul. I hope the angst expressed today in Mass. lasts for at least another year, and that, for once, we might elect a sufficient quantity of independants to re-mold the legislative process.
Barring a populist movement (as Bruce suggests), we are doomed to more of the same. It is all or none in November; this most recent election is but a hopeful sign that reason still exists.
What you should know about Scott Brown.
"Israel
Israel has made enormous sacrifices in an attempt to secure peace – including unilateral withdrawal from Gaza. I support a two-state solution that reaffirms Israel’s right to exist and provides the Palestinians with a place of their own where both sides can live in peace and security. As our closest ally in the Middle East, Israel lives every day under the threat of terror yet shares with America a dedication to democratic ideals, a respect for faith, and a commitment to peace in the region. Until a lasting peace is achieved, I support the security barrier erected by Israel which has proven successful in protecting Israeli civilians from terrorist attacks."
http://www.brownforussenate.com/issues
Another sell-out, war-mongering tool.
Fucking pile of putrid shit.
Isreal wrote the blueprints and the guidebooks for terrorism. Isreal should not even be a political issue in this country. They should be categorized as a terrorist nation period the end.
You were expecting something else from a Republican?
Which is actually a bit ironic...
Sad-NoObama is a oneterm President. And then the US takes the power from the corrupt and hands it back to the corrupt. Obama is showing no signs of political aptitude
In his search for bi-partisan "change we can all believe in" he has left way too much in the hands of Congress. They then proceed to prove once again that they can fuck up a two car funeral in a magnitude not even dreamed of by the most insanly inept.
"And then the US takes the power from the corrupt and hands it back to the corrupt."
Pretty much my thoughts, but I admit I'm about 5% happier today than I was yesterday.
Tonight reminded me of the WWE, where the guy in the Red mask won over the gal in the Blue mask.
Yeah, or that moment in an uprising when, after the deaths of 700 peasants armed with farm tools, the rabble finally pulls down one knight. And everyone cheers and acts like the peasants suddenly have a chance of victory.