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Consequences of the Mass. Election
I was watching the election results from Mass. with some people who
know history better than I. None of us could come up with a historical
parallel to the development that took place this evening. This one is
going to go down as one of those ‘water shed’ events that you hear about.
The TV guys are all talking about what this could mean to the health
care legislation. At this point, I could care less. I thought it was
dead before and I think it is deader now. What I care about is what
this means for some of the other significant issues that we face.
In my opinion the vote in Mass was a vote against the status quo. It
was a loud enough vote for everyone in D.C. to hear. If there was any
doubt that Americans are sick of the "same old, same old", this was it.
The message was clear to me, “If you want to keep your job as an
elected official you have to do things differently.” This will force
changes across the board. Some things outside of health care that I
think may be impacted:
-The days where the Fed and Mr. Bernanke get to establish broad
economic policy without taking into consideration the mood of the
public is over. This is not to suggest that the Fed is going to jack up
rates anytime soon. But to me it means that the possibility of QE2 is
done. There was a time when you might have said, “The American people
don’t understand their monetary policy and have know idea how much debt
has been created in their name”. Well that was then and this is now.
Americans do understand how much debt there is. They are shocked,
dismayed and angered. They’re a lot of everyday citizens who are well
aware that the Fed printed 2 trillion in the last year or so. The vote
in Natick Mass showed their dislike and distrust of Fed policy. While I
don’t think this will result in Bernanke failing to get a second term
in the upcoming vote, it just got a bit more uncertain. In many ways
this election will tie Ben’s hands.
-There is has been some discussion on a second stimulus bill. Those
like me who see weakness before this year is over were pushing for
that. Some big voices in the public and private sector are going to be
disappointed. There will be no second stimulus bill. Not in 2010 at
least. There is no stomach for that any longer. There are many
Congressmen and Senators who are up for reelection in ten months. They
are not going to stick there neck out for something the White House
wants and they know the people don’t. I doubt the administration will
even ask for a stimulus bill after this shellacking.
-I read the election result as being dollar positive. Somewhere inside
this vote tonight is a call for fiscal conservatism. We are going to
hear rhetoric to that effect in the coming months and we will see
legislative steps that at least give lip service to the idea that we
aught to tighten our belt a few notches. To the extent that I am right
by calling this dollar positive, you have to also think that it is a
gold negative development. For those that love the yellow metal and
hate the dollar take heart. Any positive impact to dollar will be short
lived. The inability to put a second stimulus together will show up in
all of our numbers by midyear. At that point it will be more clearly
understood that the US is broke and there really aren’t any viable
options that don’t entail a lot time and pain.
-Tim Geithner’s ship went down in Massachusetts. I am convinced that he
now must go. The Administration will have to make changes after this
vote. They have to show that they are being responsive. The beating the
WH took tonight was biblical. So will their response be. It will take a
month, but changes and heads will roll.
-I am sure that all the stock pundits are going to read this evening’s
results good for the broad market averages. I have been skeptical of
this for a while. But not any longer. The stock market looks six months
ahead. It will soon be sensing the next economic slowdown soon. I would
not say the market is a screaming short. It is not, yet. It just got
closer however.
-I can see how some health care companies might see a pop in their
stocks for a few days. This group I would short. The absence of a
health care deal is actually bad for them in my opinion. Give that a
week at best.
-There will be no fix on Social Security this year. Mr. Goss who runs
that shop has said that the issues facing SS have to take a back burner
to finding a fix to health care. Well, we have not found that elusive
solution. And now it is farther away then ever. Mr. Goss will have to
wait at least another year. That will prove to be a devastating delay.
-There will be no significant steps to address the problems at the
mortgage Agencies; Fannie, Freddie and FHA. The reason is simple. If
you wanted to address the problems with these dogs you have to owe up
to the fact that it is a $500 billion dollar sinkhole. Who would want
to put that bad news on the table after getting your ass kicked in a
crucial election? The answer to that is that no one in Washington
would. And no one will. Having said that, I would not be at all
surprised to see an effort to cut the outrageously rich compensation
packages for the big shots at Fannie and Freddie. There may have been
some belief that these two companies were in the private sector where
salaries have no caps. But now there will be those in Congress that
want/need an election edge. What could be a better edge than to beat up
on a bunch of fat cat D.C. bankers?
-We have several states that are on the edge of a fiscal crisis. I
thought that there would be some form of Federal assistance for them
this year. That may still come, but it is now much less likely. You
can’t just help NY and Cali. Those States will simply have to cut their
deficits the old fashioned way, by cutting expenses. There is no way
the folks in Texas are going to let Federal dollars be used to bail out
TBTF States. And no one in Congress is going to stand up to that.
-If you were a TBTF institution you just hated this vote. This is bad
for the Citi’s and BoA’s, but it just downright terrible for the likes
of GS. The more successful you are, the more crap that you will have to
take. Washington knows that Americans hate their banks. Now Washington
is going to take sides with the people and lean on the TBTFs even
harder.
-The bailout mentality is over. If GM needed a handout today, they
would not get it. If a company runs into difficulty in the future they
will just go down. There is no will left for the bailout thinking. If
you are a legislator and you support a bailout, you will lose you right
to vote in Washington. The voters will take you out back and shoot you
on Election Day.
»
- advertisements -
It only takes about seven peasants to take out a knight (if they take out the horse first). If you train 'em, it only takes three.
This is a historical non-sequiter, but in the battle of Agincourt welsh bowman armed with nothing but knives killed thousand of French knights in full armor. Once the knights were off their horses, they flailed around in the mud like upside-down turtles. The welsh soldiers simply walked up to a knight, lifted his visor, and stuck a knife in his eye.
If one of the trained peasants has an M1A it's ~20 knights per magazine, @ 400 yards.
+~1
+1
A funny thing happens after you bloody the bully's nose, though.
Anon...199230:
Yep, the bully becomes your friend.
I think that's a decent set of predictions. Bottom line, the GOP gains everything by saying "no" across the board. Best scenario for them from an electoral standpoint is a second meltdown before November.
I think a scorched-earth campaign against wall street may be in the cards. Obvious target of misdirection for the Dems.
"I think a scorched-earth campaign against wall street may be in the cards"
It would be interesting to see how they play "scorched-earth campaign" in a Kabuki theater. That would be a first I believe.
If you are a legislator and you support a bailout, you will lose you right to vote in Washington. The voters will take you out back and shoot you on Election Day.
If not before once they figure out the extent and the ramifications of what has already been done. War is a real possibility now. People who view violence as a legitimate means of control have been in broad control of the economy for a number of years. At least 29. 113 years if you agree with Chomsky. They know know THEY have a problem. Very dangerous waters we are sailing / drifting into.
The point here is that nobody is safe in their cushy DC jobs. If Massachusetts, the only state to vote for McGovern and Dukakis, can vote in a Repub senator, then the whole country is up for grabs. Now they cannot say that the two new Repub governors were a fluke. This is for real. Obama is basically a lame duck after tonight. Without the Senate steamroller supermajority, everyone has to be extra careful and tread lightly from now to November, including Barney and Nancy. This may seem insignificant now, but just wait to see if the Dems try to ram through healthcare, after Brown ran almost exclusively against it.
I can't wait to see how Nancy takes to being a back-bencher.
Great read Bruce. I do not (yet!) know where I come down re your various conclusions, but I do think that this was a real political earthquake.
Adios to health care "reform", RIP. Adios Cap 'n' Trade.
I do not yet sense how TPTB will react re financial policies. It does look like Americans are pissed (at both parties) regarding spending, as well they should be.
YES, it looks like Dems looking to spend and grab power are in peril. What happens next re health care? Jobs? Spending & taxes? I don't know, but the new Senator Brown from Mass. has shaken everything up. And probably for the better for our country, though I see MANY BIG problems ahead.
I will still hold & buy precious metals, keep some cash and hope for the best.
imo it isn't spending per se, the need for fiscal rectitude is seen still by only a minority of voters. it is what the money is being spent on: wars and crony capitalism. obama has burned through his left wing support, done little to gain moderates (who largely want jobs, it seems) and was never going to take a republican vote from republicans once bush was gone.
Much appreciate your comments, Bruce, I always enjoy reading them.
I also see some political techtonics, perhaps not an earthquake but hopefully some shift towards realism.
I heard on NPR before the close of the polls several strategies yet remaining to the Dems that may weasel the healthcare bill through, including disguising it as a budget amendment. Please, all concerned (and that should mean everyone), remain vigilant against backdoor efforts to continue this flawed legislation.
I am a full-blown conservative liberaterian, but would support true reform of our healthcare system. However, I will not support further encouragement of the existing system; it serves only those who profit from the industry, not those who seek its services.
Wilderman
As a full blown moderately centrist Libertarian http://www.politicalcompass.org/printablegraph?ec=-0.25&soc=-5.49 I can say that if they try and backdoor it through, it will only be worse for them.
Most people realize that more bureaucracy isn't reform, and will only serve to make health care more expensive.
They also realize that the bailout was simply a huge giveaway to the banks with no strings attached.
I think that it's possible that many of them are starting to realize that the Federal government has become steadily more intrusive over the decades and needs to be reined in. Massachusetts had the health care they wanted, AND THEY DID IT ALL BY THEMSELVES. What a concept!
I think it's possible that they also realize that starting a war without a plan to decisively win it, and with NO CONSEQUENCES IF YOU DO NOT, is just a big givaway to the defense industry. Just like the health care industry has a vested interest in continued ilness (no money in an actual cure) rest, so the defense industry has a vested interest in continued conflict (no money in peace).
Perhaps people are actually starting to want results from government... Or their money back! Wouldn't that be something!
And most importantly, 17.2% of them also have a lot more time on their hands to think about these and other things. Without that, none of this would be an issue.
"It's the economy, stupids!"
Cool test. Here's me:
http://www.politicalcompass.org/facebook/pcgraphpng.php?ec=3.25&soc=-5.13
This should almost be a requirement to have available for view under your account here at ZH. But that would go against some of my principles anyway.
If anyone else wants to try:
http://www.politicalcompass.org/
----------
+1 on your post. When Insurance equities look to be a good buy because of the 2,000 page behemoth, that criminally negligent representatives don't even read, we know we need to cut out the HMO middlemen.
Dr. Ron Paul's proposal is to make routine visits a cash payment. Let the doctor and patient work more closely together. Insurance should be for the unpredictable!
http://www.ronpaul.com/2009-09-24/ron-paul-we-need-true-competition-in-m...
Thanks for the link. Here's where I landed on my only crack at it:
Interesting set of questions, and I found myself thinking "fundamentally, the question/phrase is worded such that I find it to be correct, but not just."
Not sure if I should be proud or ashamed of where I lay...
It would be fun to see where Marla and Tyler would be and yes I know that there are many of each.
Hmm. You're slightly more a dictator than I. Hmm.
The noise in every spectrum imaginable keeps us from finding what we have in common - politics tends to be "thinking in slogans and speaking in bullets".
Where do you register on the "political compass" if your core belief is that all the Bilderbergers, Trilateralists and all of their cock sucking, cunt lapping slaves should be tried Nuremberg style, convicted, executed and bulldozed into a mass grave?
Reset, start the fuck over.
Is that right or left?
It's right in the center of mass. The bullseye on the chart. With FMJ after a jury of 12 peers.
Anytime you break above that Authotarian line you risk shooting for the moon as there is little resistance. Every single day that passes the gov't moves up on that chart. The higher you go, the less left and right mean anything.
I wonder what answering every single question in the opposite of my views would look like. I wish some of the questions were more specific; I found myself thinking, "It depends."
"Every single day that passes the gov't moves up on that chart. The higher you go, the less left and right mean anything."
Exactly, because the whole left - right, dem - repub, liberal vs. conservative front is a manufactured - for - television product designed to make the electorate feel that they have had an opinion and a choice for the past 40 years. Nothing could be further from reality.
Divide and control. The oldest crowd control technique known to civilization.
I wonder what would happen to this "political scale" distribution of outcomes if some revolutionary thinker with means was able to take out the broadcasting and distribution capabilities of CBS, NBC, ABC, FOX, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC etc. etc. et, for an extended period of time?????
Anyway, it would make a good screenplay for all of us to watch while we sit in the internment camps on Saturday nights waiting for our orderly exterminations.
I've taken this test multiple times, and I always end up a little bit left of you. Probably just as far south, but I'm slightly east of the border between left and right. You're a little more right than me, but I'm just as far south on the libertarian side.
Cool. When it comes to discussing solutions I hate being surrounded by people that think exactly like me. That's why oligarchies eventually fail - and why Orwell knew that a collective oligarchy on a massive scale was the greatest threat to humanity.
for a day.. the lunk heads will thing this changes things ,
nothing can be further from the truth , the bucko is dead.. frozen in space like some road runner imitation,
this brown guy likes the wars , likes the long string of lies about the 9-11 stuff. The nations of the earth could care less about this one vote.
as a nation we walk blinded on both sides . the freddie fanny housing deal will suck up the housing fall, the commercials will wither .. joblessness will hover at 22%. Social security smells , pension upside down.
California 12 percent of the gross national product .. is down for the count. 30 states to follow,
the nickle flippers in all their glory will game the system . and at the end of the day nothing changes , nothing is changed.
And the game of MOPE carries on. a senator with no power, on the bottom of the pole..
much ado about nothing ..
flag as junk lol
the touchy feely political banter about change , about a shot against the bow of the status quo. Is pure balderdash.
the crying weeping eyes of the obomites lasted a week,,, as the drones slaughtered the civilians . voted by both sides, the TARP infusion pushed through with the population against it 100 to !. both sides .
this vote in mass.. while giving a few moments to drivel over change.. will not see change . the health care issue is already being played out with regulation.. slowly the creep comes.
the real issue is the freedoms lost... the strip searches , the protecting the HOMELAND ,, big brother .
wars of empire.. wars of deceit, to save us from a our own mandicity, our own distorted pavlovian dog brain cramp. at the bowl of gruel for a big lie. three bldgs for the price of two.. republicians on the cover up.. voting fraud florida supreme court decision.. how fast we forget,
pump the fist of glory . pump the fist of shame. wake up/ as the rope gets tighter around the necks of the many that refuse to see.
yes a vote in mass.. that changes perception but changes nothing
wait when they grab your 401k's .. or 201k's lol
lemmimgs thinking they be crossing the river on a log to wake up ts see a python
flag as junk lol
the touchy feely political banter about change , about a shot against the bow of the status quo. Is pure balderdash.
the crying weeping eyes of the obomites lasted a week,,, as the drones slaughtered the civilians . voted by both sides, the TARP infusion pushed through with the population against it 100 to !. both sides .
this vote in mass.. while giving a few moments to drivel over change.. will not see change . the health care issue is already being played out with regulation.. slowly the creep comes.
the real issue is the freedoms lost... the strip searches , the protecting the HOMELAND ,, big brother .
wars of empire.. wars of deceit, to save us from a our own mandicity, our own distorted pavlovian dog brain cramp. at the bowl of gruel for a big lie. three bldgs for the price of two.. republicians on the cover up.. voting fraud florida supreme court decision.. how fast we forget,
pump the fist of glory . pump the fist of shame. wake up/ as the rope gets tighter around the necks of the many that refuse to see.
yes a vote in mass.. that changes perception but changes nothing
wait when they grab your 401k's .. or 201k's lol
lemmimgs thinking they be crossing the river on a log to wake up ts see a python
flag as junk lol
the touchy feely political banter about change , about a shot against the bow of the status quo. Is pure balderdash.
the crying weeping eyes of the obomites lasted a week,,, as the drones slaughtered the civilians . voted by both sides, the TARP infusion pushed through with the population against it 100 to !. both sides .
this vote in mass.. while giving a few moments to drivel over change.. will not see change . the health care issue is already being played out with regulation.. slowly the creep comes.
the real issue is the freedoms lost... the strip searches , the protecting the HOMELAND ,, big brother .
wars of empire.. wars of deceit, to save us from a our own mandicity, our own distorted pavlovian dog brain cramp. at the bowl of gruel for a big lie. three bldgs for the price of two.. republicians on the cover up.. voting fraud florida supreme court decision.. how fast we forget,
pump the fist of glory . pump the fist of shame. wake up/ as the rope gets tighter around the necks of the many that refuse to see.
yes a vote in mass.. that changes perception but changes nothing
wait when they grab your 401k's .. or 201k's lol
lemmimgs thinking they be crossing the river on a log to wake up ts see a python
flag as junk lol
the touchy feely political banter about change , about a shot against the bow of the status quo. Is pure balderdash.
the crying weeping eyes of the obomites lasted a week,,, as the drones slaughtered the civilians . voted by both sides, the TARP infusion pushed through with the population against it 100 to !. both sides .
this vote in mass.. while giving a few moments to drivel over change.. will not see change . the health care issue is already being played out with regulation.. slowly the creep comes.
the real issue is the freedoms lost... the strip searches , the protecting the HOMELAND ,, big brother .
wars of empire.. wars of deceit, to save us from a our own mandicity, our own distorted pavlovian dog brain cramp. at the bowl of gruel for a big lie. three bldgs for the price of two.. republicians on the cover up.. voting fraud florida supreme court decision.. how fast we forget,
pump the fist of glory . pump the fist of shame. wake up/ as the rope gets tighter around the necks of the many that refuse to see.
yes a vote in mass.. that changes perception but changes nothing
wait when they grab your 401k's .. or 201k's lol
lemmimgs thinking they be crossing the river on a log to wake up ts see a python
+1
(would you edit your other duplicate posts to save scrolling time please - gracias)
Wah! Dumpster, you got flagged as junk!
Don't go into show business if you are not ready for the critics.
Dumpster has it right.
The result was largely driven by:
(1) a population already forced to buy their own health care so why subsidized other states?????
(2) a politician who has no idea why anyone cares about the RED SOX or why she should bother to campaign with a bunch of voters she doesn't know. DUHH!
Maybe national healthcare is dead (good!) but if Republicans think this election was about them then they have as much chance as the Democrats this November.