This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Consumer Confidence At 54.1 On Expectations Of 53.0, Prior Revised Lower To 49.9
The propaganda crew is out in full force today, as virtually the entire growth in the confidence number was in expectations. We expect a presidential address on how Americans are delighted that Europe is disintegrating, that Ireland is on the verge of civil disobedience, that jobless benefits are expiring and that one can barter a roll of toiler paper for a house.
Some more irrelevant numbers:
- Jobs Plentiful: 4 vs. Prev. 3.5
- Jobs Hard to Get: 46.5 vs. Prev. 46.1
- Inflation: 5.1% vs. (Prev. 5.0%)
Elsewhere, the ABC Consumer Comfort index will come out today after the close, and will post another near all time low reading.
Goldman's take on the number:
The Conference Board reported a 4.2-point improvement in its index of consumer confidence, to 54.1. While obviously better than in October, this is still in the low range (bounded by 46 on the low side and 63 on the high side) that has prevailed since the recovery began in mid-2009. Almost all of the increase was in expectations; the present situation index rose only 0.5 point, to 24.0. That said, it is the expectations component of the Michigan index that is part of the index of leading economic indicators. Consumers' assessments of job availability-the percentage of respondents saying jobs are plentiful less the percentage saying they are hard to get-registered a back-door improvement by edging up to -42.5 from a downward-revised -42.8 in October; the October figure had previously been reported at -42.1.
»
- 4772 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Correlated disintergration in 3...2...1...
Hey, don't knock that house price; some of us have been saving up those toilet paper rolls, you know.
A total farce. Whats occuring in the markets today is a kin to stand up comedy. Like the U.S is oblivious to whats going on.....
Unreal.
Watch what happens if unemployment extensions aren't enacted.
Of course I really hope they don't but I have a heavy feeling in my gut that after a couple weeks of "haha we didn't extend" they're going to get extended. I don't think the people in power really want civil unrest, they need to keep the people on their leash.
Practically speaking, I wouldn't give a shit what the plebs firebombed while I was drinking top shelf liquor/fruity drinks on a beach in an island country owned by me and the rest of the principal actors in the fraud. I'll wait until enough of them off each other and then send in the mercenaries to police my farm land... given they'll have no money to pay a standing army of their own (and won't be able to borrow any either).
I'm really not sure what an enraged populus could materially change at this juncture. They go from walmart to walmart eating all the spam and spaghettios? That's a recipe for success...
Monster, I feel the same. No one will want to look like a Scrooge for the holidays. But, it seems they are playing chicken here. Question is -will they "back pay" the bennies from the time they expired, or leave that 2 or 3 week gap unfunded. I know they don't want civil unrest, but people are easier to control when it is cold outside. With everything else going on, seems this discussion has been on the backburner this week, so far. The suspense is killing me. I wonder if the Fed hiring freeze will play into this too. I can hear it now, "We had to freeze worker pay, we can't afford more UE". Life is getting very cold-hearted, by choice or not.
Yet somehow, we can find the FRNs to fund close to 1000 overseas military bases, corporate welfare payments to Archer-Daniels-Midland et. al., and throwing around $10Billion/day into the bond market(s)! The lunatics are running the asylum.
TPTB deny your reality and substitute their own!
BLS the new POMO substitute...
Only if they take the two ply "Greenback" brand. It's degrading to the environment and intentionally clogs septic tanks.
Why not just wipe your ass on the vinyl siding of your neighbors house and cut out the middle man??
Thanks for the morning laugh.
ROFLMFAO...I got cedar shakes on this place for a reason
and now they are revising the previous CONfidence numbers too
50.2 to 49.9
haha... "Wait a second. I don't think I'm as confident as I thought I was."
Hate to shatter your doom bubble but with the exception of housing, we've had some strong numbers this morning. And, I know it's hard to believe when viewing the world from a bunker, that they're not all "frauds" or "lies" or "manipulated".
I for one am happy to see all the good data today as I head off to get this retail show set up. Tells me we should do quite well.
Harry, if the consumers at your retail show don't want to pay for whatever you are supposedly selling, then you can always hit them in the face and steal their wallet.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gm-drops-day-low-3311-threatens-break-below-ipo-price#comment-741319
Change your avatar, please.
Yeah Harry, keep sticking your head in the sand, everything is more colorful there.
Yeah change the effin avatar please, I dont want to get junked because your avatar is similar to mine.
The dollar is strong and so is gold
I am guessing Adult Entertainment Industry?
Financial Porn is a growth (pun intended) industry.
Once again Harry, NO DATA, it's a fucking SURVEY! Of 5,000 people no less.
Yeah, get off to set up your retail show, the bags of shit you are selling should be in high demand.
ZH is justifiably pessamistic but it does become tiersome.
Being realistically jaded is mentally difficult, long-term.
ZH exists to provide balance.
There can be no balance in these corrupt times with manipulation at all time highs in our markets.
i have been asked that question repeatedly....why am i not optimistic?
Well, I am, i am optimistic that people will wake up and realise, that one day we will all be free from this rigid structures that surround us.
I do not want to accept the definition of optimism and pessimism as defined by CNBC, where buy is optimism and sell is pessimism.
As J Krishnamurty said ' It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.'
Good luck! BTW, will you post a follow up to let us know how it went? I mean you would not lie to us about the sales figures if they were bad right? Sales men are notorious liars especially to themselves.
Cognitive psychologists have discovered that a positive perceptual bias is the core feature of optimism:
http://www.amazon.com/Learned-Optimism-Change-Your-Mind/product-reviews/...
This is in contrast to depressive realism:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depressive_realism
Honestly Bob, psychologists are a bunch of narcissistic idiots, and that is from experience not from a mildly depressed state. A psychologist can't do anything more then what a 12 pack of beer, a fishing hole, and a few good friends can do for you! Plus the useless bastards charge 100 times more an hour, then my $10 dollar case of beer.
I agree. It seems every time economic numbers come out better than anticipated they are dismissed as "fudged", but when they come out worse than expected they are legit.
Retail sales over the weekend and yesterday were way up. If the economy is going off a cliff we wouldn't see these numbers. SPX to 1250
How do you know sales were up? Did you see actual receipts? Or are you going to regurgitate NFR or Coremetric "data."
As I commented to Harry, these are SURVEYS, no real data.
Which is to say they are not legitimate "economic" numbers, but psychological/social ones.
"SPX to 1250---" If you wish to play again, insert another quarter.
Given the health ( or lack of ) of the housing market I'd say that the Shiller data is of more importance . Consumer confidence reports don't , in my view , warrant all the attention attached to them . Solid reading though so we're probably heading higher today .
Wanger problem with your thesis:
80% of Americans biggest investment is their HOME. The wealth effect of a rising stock market really only affects about 20% of the population (and really probably closer to 12%). So when housing really goes into a double dip, what SHOULD that do to consumer confidence..........exactly.
Enjoy these numbers. They top ticked the Febuary-April 2010 rally. One has a feeling they are doing the same now.
Ps......don't forget banks completely unprepared for housing double dip (see how they made their q3 numbers.....hint:declining loan loss reserves).
The unfudgeable Baltic Dry Index is screaming down towards 2000. Come the new year there will be thousands, if not millions, of SMBs going under as undercapitalized banks finally pull the plug on unprofitable businesses.
I love the Menudo hair on Obama! harharhar
oh my that tall guy looks like the dude on the moped that tried to snatch my chain off my neck while my unit took liberty in Malasia.
Featuring the President's Huge Stimulus Package.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0142074920090205
Codpiece, bitchez!!!!!!!!!!
Another Obama basher. Why not give peace a chance?
When my fellow citizens elected him, the world lost a perfectly good golf caddy.
or a darn good high school principal. inner city of course.
attention webmaster: message and image disconnect, repeat message and image. Terminate all internet connections.
forget that jewllywood nonsense, here's every santo film known to man, all 52 of em!
http://cinemageddon.net/doku/doku.php/wiki:projects:santo_project
see that last supper on the horizon yet?
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2161/2038473316_d4929ec8d6.jpg
Harry, if you're such a patriot, why don't you put your life savings in CMG and STFU (that one's not a ticker symbol)
Cmg is better than gold! Up up up!
Safe haven like Netflix.
Once again Harry we promise to be bullish!
With the exception of:
1) Housing
2) A solvent banking system
3) Real Employment growth
4) $14 Trillion in debt
5) Required POMO
6) Spiking food and gas prices
7) Real "topline" sales growth
8) Real earnings
9) Peak Oil
And
10) Paid shills like yourself
Yes...we do have a recovery...well played my man...well played...
Other than those little problems, there is no problem.
Sadly I've come to the conclusion that Harry is either a psyops agent or a sociopath. The last vestiges of my humanity hope he's the sociopath rather than someone who's paid to help destroy America.
Sociopath turned paid shill is my guess...
Or just someone who enjoys trolling... an e-sadist if you will.
That's just another name for a sociopath. Many sociopaths are still practicing at the lower levels and haven't graduated to the big leagues. There's only so much room at the top from day to day.
By their very nature they do not voluntarily retire. By their nature as well, they will actively discourage competition from other sociopaths.
In that case CD I guess (according to the BLS) we WOULD count as some of Harry's customers?
Ya forgot record number of bankruptcies.
11) Gold and Silver prices climbing ladders.
12) HFT robots running the stock market(s).
13) Burials in Fiat Currencies.
14) Fraudclosure.
15) Gridlock, coming to a US Govt near you...
Tell us how it goes and how many people use credit or credit cards or other debt to buy.
'Strong numbers, good data' Harry? Its a fuking phone survey you dope!
Strong, Strong Numbers ! Sissy, gay pessimmes; we will own your toilet papers.
Let us in on the revelations provided by the conference you are at. I know its going to be super bullish.
He is probably a vendor at a Motivational Conference : )
My biz is stabilizing (engineering services, mostly) but way below "normal" and under great pressure. We have tightened our budget, but I am still giving my employees a bonus. The only thing that has saved us is that I do not practice debt financing for anything. So, we may be cash poor, but we have no debt. My worry is for what is going to happen after the new year.
You are too kind Kali.
Harry is a vendor all right. The provider of services behind the glory hole wall to whatever shills pay his way. But this being the Internet and all, he can post whatever he wants. Some will even believe him.
You now we are in an end game when you see such breathtaking lies. They literally have no choice now to keep the game going, but to lie and manipulate openly. They don't even care about consequences, because they know this is the end game.
As a survey, it makes perfect sense. Since the MSM that most people depend on cheerleads, folks should be expected to hold a rosier picture than actual circumstances might support.
It's not economic data, it's a perceptions popularity vote.
Kind of like Cam Newton. Auburn is all in.
LOL chinese like numbers - everything beats by a point or two.
How do you revise a survey? Real high-quality data there...
The same way you do an election, duh...
Just checking in to see how Ben's wealth effect is going...what a loser. Fire Ben, Fire Ben
YEA next they need to put in a 'wealth effect' phone survey! Excuse me sir, you feeling wealthy today? Well da ya, PUNK?'
All I keep hearing is that luxury retail is at all time highs.
Which goes along with the theory of a diminishing American pie. That is exactly the expected pattern: as economies crumble wealth gets more concentrated (Roman aristocrats had their orgies, 18th century French nobility partied day and night, previous US peak concentration was in 1929). Notice another tell tale sign: with all their wealth, very little is being invested in the domestic US economy. Rich aren't even buying much US real estate (they prefer the Mediterranean climate)
All I keep hearing is that luxury retail is at all time highs.
I'd like to hear more of that reality here, rather than the insufferably ignorant claims that underwater homeowners and the unemployed are out buying iJunk. Those people, of course, have no active credit cards to purchase any shit with . . . and they wouldn't know where to find a Macy's if they did. But it doesn't keep the bullshit from spewing, even around here.
@Caviar
"with all their wealth, very little is being invested in the domestic US economy"
Au contraire, monsieur! I read today that the UAW is investing over $3B of funds from the sale of their GM shares to try and unionize "holdout" auto plants. To people like our President, these are the kind of investments that really matter -- they pay dividends in perpetuity.
Oh, gag me, I am so sorry to hear that.
True, mon cher!
There are many sources of reinvested wealth if you look for them. John Gotti always had a party for the neighborhood on his birthday. Illegal fireworks too! What a guy!
I hear the economy is recovering and consumer spending is up too.
As I watch my neighbors that are in retail businesses moved out of their homes.
Are American consumers ever less confident that they will be spending more retail dollars going into the end-of-year holiday season?
Actually these "good" data prints will start to hurt. Euro dumping for dollars because of our "strength"
The money will go to dollars not stocks.
High dollar is bad for the market.
Then they'll just print more. It's a great system, print dollars, rest of world crumbles and people dump money back into the dollar thereby reinforcing it against more printing.
I think I just heard Bernanke say:
Moo-ha-ha-ha...
Mooooo-heh-hah-hah!
Maaa-ha-hhooooooooo-heh-heh-haaaaah -aahhhh -ahhhh -aahhh -ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!..
I think many of you underestimate the stupidity of the US consumer. This is one thing that need not be manipulated.
Harry Wanger = Steve Liesman
Baghdad Bob for the administration.
The Nazi's would be envious of our propaganda machine
Any dictator would admire the uniformity and obedience of the U.S. media.
Noam Chomsky
Who was interviewed by your avatar, oddly enough.
Its all about keeping the avg american sheeple placated for as long as possible. It wont last much longer at all, the endgame is here.
While I tend to agree, I have no idea how the endgame is going to play out. I can see each new "event" 10 different ways, but primarily divided into two categories... outright unraveling vs. planned destruction. I suppose for simple fools such as myself, it doesn't make much of a difference.
Wikileaks as an example... if you and I agree that the endgame is here, what better way to divide the playing field than by airing the dirty laundry. Choose sides and let it rip. Doesn't much matter if it starts in Iran or Korea. But maybe sh-t is just falling apart... at the end of the day, we'll still be choosing sides and letting it rip.
Revised phone survey? How in the hell do you revise a damn survey?
they polled the survey again after the first time, and later find that a few people happened to change their minds, thus the revision...
C'mon now, Harry is entitled to his opinions and for the past quarter he's been spot on wrt the economic outlook. I'm not a trader, so this daily/weekly news is just noise. The giant Ponzi gets bigger, and like all Ponzis it will eventually unravel. Place your bets accordingly.
Can someone explain to me when this became such a market moving number? No one used to care about this POS as it was known to not be a representative survey.
Harry, while you are looking at your business and saying that things are positive have you stopped to ask yourself, why QE2 was needed? Remember where the market was pre-QE2 speculation? If things were sustainable and good, then POMO would be history. We allow the banks to still ignore FASA and perform Repo105 so that their numbers come in stellar. This past quarters numbers were actually pretty crappy for banks after all the ways they were able to cover up losses. So to sum it up, this is a faux recovery, as a recovery insinuates sustainability, and I would love you to show me how this economy has sustainability.
Funny, with all this good "data" the only way to make the market go up is to hit the dollar. And that's kind of funny too because one would think that with a volatile global situation and a "recovery" here in the US (as indicated by today's "data") we'd see confidence in the dollar as the currency of a strong economy and a safer bet, relative to the rest of the world.
France seizes €36 billion of pension assets
Wow more great news...and Im sure the French pensioner is probably more confident as well.
LOL. oh yes, ever so much more confident.
I detect massive amounts of doomer butt-hurt this morning.
Today is a beautiful autumn morning, right at the start of the holiday season. They're going to light the Christmas Tree at Rockerfeller Center this evening. I can't wait. NYC is magical during this time of year. I recommend you all take a trip and go shopping on Fifth Avenue.
Autumn in November ? who knew ? now that's serious optimism.
Wear your bomb squad gear...the Muslims are lookin to blow up Christmas trees now!
Facilitated by the FBI. If you look into the facts, the FBI cherry picked this gullible teenager off the internet, gave him the ideas, gave him the money, gave him the bomb, the van and the detonation device, DROVE him to the site. He is 19yrs old. Talk about a psy ops operation. Think they needed to put fear into Portlanders, who being so liberal, never dreamed of being a target. Had to get them in line and set up for the REAL purpose-they will now be surveilling "portland's living room" much more intensely. Just the fascists tightening down their screws. Also, was a ploy to get Portland to sign back on with the "terrorism task force", former mayor Tom Potter refused to participate. Now they are back on board and want to join in with the jack boots.
Gubbermint will be coming for your 401K soon!
Giddity, Giddity, I agree NYC is a magical place. Enjoy the tree, put your ice-skates on.
NYC a magical place as long as you dont mind the bedbugs and getting stabbed in the liver by a crackhead.
Well they tried to massage the phone survey numbers, didnt have hardly any effect at all as markets are still pomegranate red. Dang whats it take to get a stock market pump around here these days? $9 billion injection and phonied up confidence numbers now mean nothing?
Harry, I hope your retail show goes well. You have a strong product line.
http://www.schemamag.ca/archive2/2010/11/barack_obama_sex_doll.php
How cum only one doll looked surprised?! :>D
No ma'am that seems about right,
Consumer Confidence is at least 54.2% but probably more like 98.1371%
This Numbers came out much better than previous Confidence Jobs,
even though we never expected to get such a blast from distilled Potatoes.
If the ocean was Moonshine and I was a Duck in Recovery,
I would get a real blast going Duck hunting with Dick.
Its up, revised downward, its up bigger, revised downward more, its up really huge, revised downward..................
It would be interesting to see consumer confidence retrospectively correlated with actual economic performance and psychotropic medication use (perhaps we should also add state of residence to account for "medical" marijuana use as well.)
It ain't so easy to be pessimistic when you're on good drugs.
Remember too that whatever consumer confidence is around is due in no small part to people using money to buy things that was supposed to pay the mortgage. I mean, if I had a spare $2k-$3k per month banked for the past 14 months and no sign of being kicked out I'd feel pretty confident spending some money too.
Consumer confidence should take into account large macro trends, like the end of shopping as it is currently done. Greater market efficiency tends to make all products into commodities, and (one) definition of a commodity is something which is uniformly made and distributed and sold in a common market. Cars, televisions, iphones, the age of branding is finished, as the makers of these things have done their job well.
Then the second great technology revolution is at hand, that in which food shelter and transportation are nearly ubiquitous. Without the struggle for these things all political, social and religious differences evaporate. Seeds which grow under nearly any conditions, clothing which never wears out, housing which is cheap, movable, and sufficient to our needs. Like the first hippie revolution, (anti-materialist) the second phase is technology driven. We are almost there.
The human effect of this is greater personal autonmy. Do you need to keep up with the Jones? Everything you have says something about your self sufficiency, not your need to belong to a larger society, or participate in a culture that needs to homogenize the participants through fashion, food, and image.
All these changes are subtly taking over. Consumer Confidence, have confidence that you won't need it.
At what point do expectations rise because people have to believe it will get better because they can't handle thinking it will get any worse?
Wow take a look at this. Confidence in what? we are all making less and no one can get ahead.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/RetirementandWills/CreateaPlan/getting-ahead-you-only-think-so.aspx