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Consumer Confidence "Expectations" Lower Than During "Recession"; Fifth Largest Drop Ever
While today's consumer confidence index missing expectations (at 67.5 or the lowest since April 2009) was not a big surprise following our prediction of just that happening when we reported that the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index hit a 7 month low, what was very disappointing was that the Expectations component had its fifth largest drop in history, plunging from 72 to 58. This is a lower reading than that recorded when the "recession", according to the NBER at least, was still raging. As a reminder the recession ended with "expectations" at 70.
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I have to go to the toilet and take a Ben Bernanke
...BRB
Irrelevant. You cant eat expectations
that's so bullish it's unbelievable...
+1
I shall replace my phrase "take a Shattner" with "drop off the Ben Bernanke at the pool"
Meanwhile, the Algo/Igor/Robos are panicking and now going long, after last week's decline has been erased.
And all the CANSLIM mo-mo junkies, after downing a 40 oz. can of Red Bull, can't believe their eyes as PCLN and other "market leaders" are powering up towards $500/share.
Glad Im not holding any of that garbage for the coming no-warning complete wipe out of it all.
Yup: Paper economy up, real economy down.
That's biflation, baby. Look for more of the same.
Lotsa Luck!
well, today is day 5 and where is that court ordered federal reserve list? oh wait, the market is still open. but then again, any surprises may be bullish.
Where's Wikileaks' files on Bank of America? Julian said they would be released Q1 2011... so where are they?
maybe an overpaid, global corporate book deal changed his mind.
Wikileak files washed away in Tsunami that market suggests never happened.
There was no disaster in Japan and no disruptive skirmishes in MENA according to equity indices. Only in energy and food do you see glimmers of reality.
What is up with all the tittie avatars?
Dude, this is ZH.
Shush, tits are bullish
I like that term - biflation. What's going to happen is the conflagration of all that paper when reality hits the fan. Biflation Conflagration or BC - we're heading to conditions that existed 2000 BC. Slave labor on the way.
This is staggering. The few humans left on the trading floors must be sitting back in amazement, envy, or disgust at the paper gains the machines make for themselves on a daily basis.
Stupid humans would have clogged the gears with their thinking and 'concerns'. But not a robot! Those mofo's just chug along driving everything up no matter what the news.
Bullish!
Everything is bullish!
Middle East in non-stop wars?
Japan on fire?
Real UE of 20% in U.S. and higher in many parts of Europe?
Record deficit spending and debts?
37% of Retirees with $0 in the bank and 64% with less than 100k?
03-25 10:39: Tepco says water at Fukushima No.1 reactor highly radioactiveNew Home Sales
LMAO!
I love the smell of denial and absurdity in the air, but even more so than in 2007!
Dow what up 80? Everything is bullish...
END DA' FED, With all that good news, no wonder the markets are up! Crazy times.
I conclude theyre picking a fight, trying to get people to riot.
37% with $0
64% with <$100k
101% total
and you are missing the very small but still a % that is retiring with some chedda
not sure of your sources but you might check again
Consumer confidence is in the tank while trader confidence continues to soar. Nothing says delusion like the stock market. Bad news obviously means QE3 or bust!
By 'traders' I guess youre refering to some robots and Bernanke's cntrl/print fat finger?
BTW I dont see what all the hoopla is about myself, DOW is around 12,200, inflation and purchasing power adjusted its a huge snoozer and stuck at 1999 levels. Really whats the big deal?
By "traders" I am referring to the carbon based life forms who make decisions based on the "don't fight the Fed" paradigm. This only means that the "traders" know what the robots (algos) are going to do and make their trading decisions accordingly.
I confess that I just can't stand hearing the pundits continue to talk about this "bull market." We have a bullshit smoke and mirrors market (QE, FASB rule changes, TARP, FNM/FRE, etc.) concealing a depression-style bear market...this is a house of cards market and it pisses me off that it can't be shorted!
All that matters is corporate profits. It's perfectly sensible that PRECISELY those things killing consumer confidence - the utter failure of the private sector to produce jobs, the stripping away of benefits by scabbing politicians, foreclosures - boost profits and thus the market.
What a world that will produce. CEOs and banksters and politicians will all line their pockets as 50% of the world starves to death.
Markets surge on the news. Jim Cramer to report "Expectations must be close to a bottom"
We're spending $1.5 trillion more that we take in! We have not even begun to fell the pain that is to come.
How much of that is debt service to the TBTF banker-gangsters?
The whole 'debt' issue is a gigantic bluff. Time to call the banker-gangsters on it and leave them pissing in the wind.
I remember when George Carlin likened "servicing your account" as stealth anal rape.
Sort of like those who "manage risk," actually.
Congress doesn't have the guts to make deep and significant cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. The Fed will keep subsidizing their reckless spending with a near-ZIRP policy. The debt will continue to explode until someone hits the reset button.
These cuts are unnecessary, not to mention genocidal. They simply need the guts to tax corporate profits and derivatives instead of telling working people to eat cat food and tree bark.
<<< These cuts are unnecessary >>>
You might want to do some more research. The unfunded future liabilities in SS, Medicare and Medicaid far exceed the total national debt right now.
How about a progressive income tax? How about a progressive inheritance tax? How about a system that is for the majority instead of the few?
Social Security is paid for by each worker.
Why not tax all income for Social Security rates without limit?
Stop the lying, stealing, cheating, and killing machines.
The big dogs must be missing something .....
The first quarter is set to be one of the busiest ever for investment-grade corporate bond issuance, with $126.6 billion in deals sold so far in 2011, according to data provider Dealogic. Meanwhile, the amount of high-yield corporate debt sold so far this year is on track to be the second-busiest quarter since Dealogic began tracking the information in 1995. Investors' thirst for higher-yielding assets than Treasurys, as well as companies' generally stronger performance, are factors behind the deluge of debt.
The U.S. commercial paper market grew again on both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis in the week ended March 23, according to Federal Reserve data released Thursday. Growth in this market indicates strength in the economy as companies use it to fund daily needs such as paying employees and landlords and stocking up on goods for sale.
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110324-713243.html
They're missing nothing. This is the best to be issuing bonds! Float them to da suckers while rates are low and pump up your liquidity for tough times ahead. I have a few friends that are CFOs - they are so relieved to have liquidity locked-up. They're NOT using it for upgrades/capital expansion. These are rainy day funds
they're also using the funds for bonuses...and jets...and hookers...and cocaine...and booze...and corporate junkets for self-congratulatory circle jerks with the occasional break for the appointment with the 18 year old Asian masseuse.
it's good to be king...until that whole "guillotine" thing goes mainstream...but that's down the road. live for today.
take a dump
take a bonus
wipe
bonus
flush
bonus
Problem is the "guillotine thing" really doesn't happen very often. French revolution was 1789. With the possible exception of the Russian revolution in 1917, the rich and powerful don't get guillotined by the masses but instead continue with their pampered and privileged lives until they die comfortably in their beds.
This is what life is about under your system? What productive person would even want that?
Parisian--so you support the tape worm gestalt.
a parasite sees the world so very differently than the host.
TBTF has made corporate bonds every bit as safe as treasurys.
The "Second Dip" has started and everyone knows it.
So if we have a level 7 nuclear meltdown over the weekend, we should be +1000 on the futures (S&P that is) my 7 am monday...
yes
naturally. nuclear meltdown is uber-bullish. topped only by an asteroid strike which is bullish to the 10th power x infinity squared.
LMAO !!
You could ratchet up the "broken window" theory to the "broken Earth" theory. Mint Juleps for everyone!
Finally it comes to light that the lyrics to Tool's "Aenima" is not really about Los Angeles being sucked into the ocean, but rather is hope and praise for Keynesian economic theory.
Even bonds won't sell off. Insane.
I'd go as far to say, a little creepy actually. makes you wonder what the hell is going to happen next.
Exactly.
Equity markets purchasing power adjusted are the worst thing to be in today. Why is everyone so impressed with them? Pavlovian free-range sheeple.
I am not sure anyone is "impressed" per se...baffled for sure.
Well, some are impressed anyway. Seems the discussion always centers around some BS equity ramp up. To me it just shows how desperate they are to keep the impression of 'all is well' up no matter what and at any cost. What theyre hiding, and what event is next is what really worries me. Screw all this equity investing I'll never do it again, never play in a fully exposed rigged casino.
Its like throwing stones and rocks at the ALGO TANKS.....IT is useless!!!!!!!! OPEN-CMG_PCLN...the pigs eat again at the table of mark it UP for Quarter END...One more mercedes for the garage......
REITs violently shoved by up again today along with the last 3.
Give me a fucking break.
Russell 2000 and bank stocks are leading the charge today.
Not the time to be short.
Yesterdays reversal in silver and gold is a sell signal to me, plus some dollar buyers..short term reversal coming SLW short, GLD short
bank stocks are leading the charge today
yes they are, sans GS. but they're not really a bank, so you are correct. GS is rather weak today. maybe some finacial exposure in japan? or a new subpoena floating around? who knows.
Sure Robo,
The criminal syndicate known as Wall Street has kicked up the unicorns, and the herd is moving so fast, the pixiedust is so thick in the air that a fellow cannot even see ten feet. The vapor volume parabolic 6 of 7 straight days of forced market march...straight up ...again takes market credibility to zero by the end of the morning session. The street previously having released closing bell rumors about $60 billion in levered ES bets put on a craps table somewhere...establishing the high water mark of THIS session, mind you...and said bankers buy....the Russell?
If this post does not summarize PERFECTLY just what the time to sell looks like, well then what America is currently charging towards is actual Marxism. I would be more surprised by continued market strength then I would be to wake and discover that "elections are undergoing Federal review to try better to understand why there are necessary anymore"...now that central planning is making all of us rich with money printing....QE3 promised on the wind somewhere by someone...
I wonder...how long will the most sophisticated [supposedly] market in the world be able to continue to reward the worst trader in the world, the one rushing in last, on margin, buying shares of IWM?
We are freakin' doomed...a criminal syndicate of Wall Street bankers has guaranteed our fate this way.
but of course you said you were "itching" to get short.
but that was before, or maybe simultaneously, when you said fight the fed - no wait - don't fight the fed - wait - fight the fed - here comes the "war games" whopper computer 0101010101010101010 ........
system crash ........
Anyone go to Calculated Risk? Seems like the admin has become a cheerleader lately.
Yeah, I stopped following that site about four months ago. The guy has great charts but lately it is the everything is "slowly improving" Kool-aid that I see in the MSM.
I can't read CR anymore. I don't read his posts or his comments for that very reason. I just scan the comments of the readers.
Yeah, I don't get it. It used to be a daily visit for me. It was a great way to keep up with all the latest econ reports. But, he's definitely been adding spin to it lately. I wonder what the motivation is. Maybe he's a hardcore Keynesian or something.
It used to be he didn't want to go overboard on the hyperbole about how bad things were going. Fine with me, he doesn't want to appear "fringe". But now he's just a cheerleader. On this board people are looking for an immenent, as in tomorrow, big meltdown. My opinion is it's coming, but people are going to be amazed at how long the day it arrives can be avoided.
It's difficult going against conventional thinking for a long period of time, and when everyone has been saying "you're crazy, we're in the middle of a recovery" for two years you begin to wonder if you're wrong, so you get on board with mainstream thought, accept the solutions, bogus statistics and explanations why things are how they are. That's where CR is now.
Agreed, he is nothing more than a Fed cheerleader.
www.themodernsurvivalist.com/?p=1146
flag as tripe (1)
Market is very much inversing DXY today on minute by minute basis.
Today's numbers are only further confirmation of rampant biflation:
As the paper economy rises, the real economy is tanking.
One way to understand it is the Wall Street/Main Street paradox. Guess who;s favored by Fed and global central banker policies?
So we have the paradoxical situation of stocks up big with consumer expectations down big (supposedly 70% of the economy).
Valuation models mean nothing in this environment. The only thing that matters for stocks is liquidity from QE ($ 7 billion daily) and the perception of the lack of any risk (Bernanke put, BOJ put, ECB put). The only "Global Growth" story here is the guarantee that central bankers will get intoxicated and print even more the worse things get as part of their plan to save the world from itself.
Only gold and PMs can protect earnings, savings and wealth in this environment. Paper will imploded inevitably, including the dollar (and Euro) and many more. Money printing policies will inevitably lead to global political instability from imbalances (why can't we print as much as you do and buy oil with it?). Global "Growth" story could easily morph in to a global supernova. But the alternative, a global depression with a soaring Wall Street, is even worse.
They can do whatever they want, rip off and steal however much they feel like because americans are a fallen people and will never do anything. They dont care theyre being robbed blind and slow-killed, Dancing with the Stars is on later tonite, and theres a coupon for half off Pizza Hut delivery.
They raised the margin requirements on Silver because they want people to pay up when it crashes.
CE the real story is the global bankers probably have kickoff of WW3 planned within a couple weeks, only way any of it makes any sense at all.
Well closed all my RIMM 60 puts when it showed down 6.66%, not bad. RIMM my favorite trade ever, about time the turd took a drubbing.
They have realised that the Hopium was just that.. smoke to dumb them down into thinking it would get better, but the Hopium has run out and they are now seeing reality for what it is... a Depression that never ended
I'll believe the Hopium has lost all effect when I see Wash DC and Manhattan under siege by protestors.
Hey Tyler,
I see you took that guys advice from yesterday and started linking to your "As we predicted" articles. Too funny!
this is exactlyu the number that you'd expect for stagflation, which everyone knows is there except bernanke, dudley, and Krugman.
does anyone know a good recipe for I-pads?
meanwhile my commodities are doing great!!!, watch the numbeers get worse and worse. oBAMA STILL DOESN'T GET HOW THE FED IS RUINING HIS CAHNCE OF WINNING ANOTHER ELECTION, BUT HE DOESN'T CARE, AFTER ALL HE WILL MAKE MILLIONS FROM FAVORS GIVEN
Obama is in charge of nothing, the biggest puppet ever.
not often you see a block of almost 10m XIU (CDN S&P 60 etf) cross
http://www.google.com/finance?q=xiu
Lot of activity at the top? Who is bailing and who is buying? FED probably ramping and buying the top, what do they care? Got to keep the minions playing and happy and theyll never have to pay a dime no matter what anyway. Just a bunch of Monopoly play money to them.
McTeer of Dallas Fed says "no more ocean liners" -- no QE3.
Interesting. Personally I dont believe there will be a QE3 either. And nice rack.
SSSSSSSShhhhhhhhhhhhh ...
Many, many have stated on ZH that QE must happen, will happen no matter what.
Put that vat of " crow soup " on simmer.
Cant happen, not without a matching fiat implosion.
Bet your life on that one, dead man.
I think that's just talk by the Fed, even the Hawkish ones, who merely want to go on the record.
The Fed doesn't even need a QE 3 now. They have a enough cash flow on the balance sheet to do the same thing @$750 billion per year without calling it QE 3 (Jim Rickards).
Hence no official "QE 3" required, but stealth monetization of the debt can continue without the spotlight and criticism (much).
+1
Very inflationary!
SPX
New channel.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
Same direction.
Same junk charts i'm afraid. Your charts change daily based on the market action, they have too, because your charts are constantly wrong on a daily basis.
Stop wasting your time friend.
"Fed's Evans says US economy is improving with each month, declines in unemployment rate "genuine" "
Now THAT is what you call a blatant in your face liar, like the Chair Satan
"Fed's Evans says when time comes to raise rates, it will be "easy,happy" because economy will be growing"
Ooops that was a BIG slip... "will be" growing? Hmmmmm
This just goes to tell us that stock are rising for the same reason gold and silver is rising, inflation. If the average bloke is not feeling upbeat, they are not buying stocks enthusiastically. They are buying stocks in an attempt to keep up with inflation and because short-term interest rates are effectively zero. So they are buying stocks reluctantly, because they have no where to go. Seems to me that if one were worried about inflation, gold and silver would be a better home for your bucks than equities.
www.TheAngryGrapes.com
Avis is at all time highs. It cant be that bad. Renting a car is pretty expensive
Consumer Confidence will continue to decline as the Corporate Elites and the Cronies continue to rape America. People are starting to realize that the transformation into American Fascism is taking away their ability to compete and thrive in a place they no longer recognize.
The Rise of Fascism in America
"Fascism in America won't come with jackboots, book burnings, mass rallies, and fevered harangues, nor will it come with black helicopters or tanks on the street. It won't come like a storm but as a break in the weather, that sudden change of season you might feel when the wind shifts on an October evening: Everything is the same, but everything has changed. Something has gone, departed from the world, and a new reality will have taken its place. All the old forms will still be there: legislatures, elections, campaigns,plenty of bread and circuses. But consent of the governed will no longer apply; actual control of the state will have passed to a small and privileged group who rule for the benefit of their wealthy peers and corporate patrons".
"To be sure, there will be factional conflicts among the elite, and a degree of debate will be permitted; but no one outside the privileged circle will be allowed to influence state policy. Dissidents will be marginalized, usually by the people themselves. Deprived of historical knowledge by a thoroughly impoverished educational system designed to produce complacent consumers, left ignorant of current events by a corporate media devoted solely to profit, many will internalize the force-fed values of the ruling elite, and act accordingly. There will be little need for overt methods of control".
"The rulers will act in secret, for reasons of national security, and the people will not be permitted to know what goes on in their name. Actions once unthinkable will be accepted as routine: government by executive fiat, state murder of enemies selected by the leader, undeclared wars, torture, mass detentions without charge, the looting of the national treasury, the creation of huge new security structures targeted at the populace. In time, this will be seen as normal, as the chill of autumn feels normal when summer is gone. It will all seem normal".
by Gary Alan Scott
For those who care to dig a little deeper into their planned demise...
http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0412-32.htm
Rally baby!!!
NOBODY I know feels better about the ecocomy, jobs, their investments, etc. Where is there any yield that is safe.
NOBODY I know would start a business in the US now because of the lousy economy and REGULATORY UNCERTAINTY.
NONE of our financial problems have been solved.
NO ONE (of any significance) is in jail for causing our financial crisis.
I will keep my 10% of my net assets in gold, or buy more. I probably will buy more as money (computerized FRNs) comes in.
hmmmm.....aren't all these "indexes" rigged anyway? They need QEIII so isn't this the way you sell it?
Not surprising. Outside of the markets, things look grim. I saw work fall to zero this week (am in service industry). I have immediate family in low or no employment situations...(for reference, they have advanced degrees in very practical, applied fields.) This can not bode well for the future of our country.
Public employees are threatened with job loss in volume for the first time of this recession. From 2008-10, the downturn cranked the torque bar almost exclusively against the private sector
Immunity wore off recently. Because public employees spend most of their days with other public employees, many did not recognize the downturn as anything out of the ordinary. Confidence polls may erode further as many teachers finish out the next few months with no indication they will have a job in September.