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Consumer Confidence Improves As 1 Year Inflation Expectation Remains At 2 Year High

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Once again confirming that sentiment indicators are completely irrelevant and thoroughly misleading at best, we have the UMichigan consumer sentiment coming out at 69.6 compared to expectations of 68.8 and up from the March 67.5 print. This number is a rather stark contrast to the recently highlighted Gallup consumer confidence which plunged to August 2010 levels. And looking at current economic conditions index confirms that since 2010 the economy has gone precisely nowhere. But most notably, 1 year inflation expectations are still at the highest since 2008 at 4.6 unchanged M/M. All that of course is irrelevant as the algos just scanned the headline and go batshit, lifting every offer with gusto.

 

 

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Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:07 | 1172201 depression
depression's picture

I know everytime Silver makes a new high I feel better and better !

Silver Bitchezz !!!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:09 | 1172202 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Where the fuck do they find these "consumers"? At Porsche dealerships? The Bar at the Plaza? Or do they only survey those who own private islands in tax havens? What the fuck.....

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:16 | 1172232 gall batter
gall batter's picture

exiting Barney's, Bergdorf's, Cartier, and Tiffany's, but only those with proofs of purchase.  

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:21 | 1172250 Misean
Misean's picture

Well, nowhere in most of Michiagan, certainly.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 11:42 | 1172629 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Shopping malls provide a target rich enviroment.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:10 | 1173006 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

maybe it's based on american express gold card users.....

i know for a fact they never asked me!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:08 | 1172209 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

This one never fails. With all the hand picked 300 CONsumers surveyed, this irrelevant indicator is perfectly designed to get all the algos churn and levitate equities towards the chair creature's targets.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:09 | 1172214 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

guess the obama libyan rebels were not included in the poll

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-14/qaddafi-taunts-as-nato-seeks-mo...

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:09 | 1172216 pendragon
pendragon's picture

well it is still at historically very low lvls. nice to see equities rallying on the miniscule beat though!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:15 | 1172240 Ray1968
Ray1968's picture

Just enough rally to screw (people like me) that were holding SPX and/or SPY puts on expiration Friday.

Yeahhhhhhhhhhh Hurray rallyyyyyyyyyyy

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:12 | 1172217 r101958
r101958's picture

Hey, they have to earn their gov't money somehow......

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:11 | 1172218 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

The U.S. administration are on par with the Nazis, of that i have no doubt after seeing the past few years day in day out.

In fact, i think if the Nazi party could see how the U.S. is ran today they would have nothing but complete and utter admiration.

The only difference between the U.S today and Nazi Germany, is that Nazi Germany had an industrious hard working populous, where as the U.S. is slobville central.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:12 | 1172219 Racer
Racer's picture

Those without phones are not contacted..... ever...

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:13 | 1172222 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Asset bubbles do that to sentiment, especially when it's the Dow.  Akin to morphine for the terminally ill.  Also, the numbers get biased by those sheeple that take visible inflation as an indicator of recovery occurring.

God help us if this round of elixir gets people borrowing off of that sentiment...

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:29 | 1172289 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

"Asset bubbles do that to sentiment, especially when it's the Dow.  Akin to morphine for the terminally ill.  Also, the numbers get biased by those sheeple that take visible inflation as an indicator of recovery occurring."

The patient is not terminally ill, the Doctor who is prescribing the infinite morphine is.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:14 | 1172225 Racer
Racer's picture

Fed's Evans says doesn't see evidence of bubbles in equities, junk bonds and loans

 

The fed didn't see subprime either... 

they can't see a crocodile even it is eating them alive!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:20 | 1172246 Misean
Misean's picture

It's odd that the UofM has such surveys. Obviously Detroit is a mythical place to these folks.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:23 | 1172275 Tell me lies
Tell me lies's picture

My thought also, maybe they gave more Welfare to the population that gets counted as CC.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:20 | 1172258 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Headline scanning algos......

Think about that for a minute. The media now have the power to move markets on the published word. Explains a lot of the bettet than expected or silver lining headlines. Not a new tought, as TD has been all over it for over a year, but profoundly troubling given a moment's reflection.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:21 | 1172264 GIANTKILR
GIANTKILR's picture

In my little window to the world, I see several houses being built in my neighborhood. Existing homes are starting to sell. The restaurants are packed every night. Traffic is horrible so gas prices are not effecting them negatively. I am left wondering if these consumers are living in the same world. Are these "consumers" living in blissful ignorance? Sometimes I think being ignorant is probably more fun!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:26 | 1172279 Seymour Butt
Seymour Butt's picture

It's always calm before the storm. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:32 | 1172299 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Unlike the majority, you are differentiating between consumption enabled by wealth versus spending fueled by debt. While you consider the difference and the consequences between wealth and debt as important, most do not care. They spend money because it's available, and they couldn't care less about next month or next year.

It's that simple.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:19 | 1173063 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

in my medium sized window to the world, i notice less people and product in non-food stores, less traffic on the road, an ever-increasing tent city size, elected officials with blinders on, an increase of 30 to 50 % on certain "food" items, an increase in whining and complaining, corrupt courts and judges, mass vacancies in strip malls, mass empty residential properties, more traffic cameras, more senior citizens struggling and more people asking questions as to why.

the complaints need to be directed at the right people.  i'm on it and i strongly suggest others get on their complaint letters and send them out to state AG's pronto!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:30 | 1172293 aerial view
aerial view's picture

Of course "consumer confidence improves"- the ipad 2 was released in March and at the same price as the original. Buy sheeple, buy!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:30 | 1172300 falak pema
falak pema's picture

We are at a moment where caring for fundamentals is like star gazing...we are on a moving raft...in a sea of unknowns...Those who believe MSM and the networks...believe the light is shining up ahead...end of tunnel! Those who are into it deeper are contrarians, as fundamentals do count, but to a tiny, tiny minority...even when they are covered with make-up like a TV program invitee on talk-show; looking his puffed and combed best.

"Le radeau de la Méduse"... (the raft of the Medusa)...is an image that should only be contemplated in a museum...

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:52 | 1172405 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

I remember the mass hysteria of January 2000. Fundamentals didn't matter anymore, jobs were obsolete, and a new age of infinite commerce was here. Home Depot was open 24/7. NASDAQ 5000. If I wanted, I could tippity-tap on a keyboard and have a Snickers candy bar delivered right to my door at 3 AM.

We snapped out of it about four months later.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 10:47 | 1172383 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

TD, last week you reported that the stock market rallied on bad news because it meant that QE3 was a slamdunk. 

Now you are reporting that scanning algos searching for good news are moving the markets higher.

Which is it?  Are you just pulling excrement out of your anal cavity?  Are these competing forces real?  Are algos searching for good news more powerful than traders searching for bad? 

 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 11:36 | 1172593 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Gee asshole, why don't you give us your "expert" analysis on the topic?

Since TD is full of shit, I want to hear what YOU think, you fucking genius you.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:22 | 1172826 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

Can anyone of substance please help enlighten me?  I genuinely would like to know if there is any truth to TD's assertions that traders are buying on bad info, and algos are buying on good info.   

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:24 | 1173079 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

the "free market" changes daily, just look at silver!  anything on paper as an asset is bad imho.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 11:39 | 1172619 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

It's good to see that the salaried workers are confident about their jobs...

It's too bad they couldn't sample a broader demographic..

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 11:49 | 1172650 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

This is just Obamanomics where they scramble the decimals around to see fit, it is really 57.6! 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 11:53 | 1172676 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

If you have a combined median family income above $120,000 the social security tax reduction of 2% is putting $200 a month of discretionary spending in your pocket (the contribution income cap is $106,800 or $213,600 per couple. Thus couples making that and above are pocketing $356 more a month) and makes it almost impossible to think that Obama could not only remove this but then allow the Bush tax cuts to expire. Why not be optimistic!?!?! Is it any wonder that luxury good sales are exploding?!?!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:21 | 1173935 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

I'm sure the questions they asked were VERY objective, and not leading in ANY way...

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 06:32 | 1177515 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

All questions are leading. Or else conversation would go nowhere.

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