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Consumer Confidence Misses Big, Prints 52.5, Below Consensus Of 56.3 And November's 54.3

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The December Consumer Confidence (Conference Board, not UMich) number misses expectations of 56.3 by a mile printing at 52.5. This is also a material drop from the November 54.3 print. On the very important topic of jobs, "Those saying jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 3.9 percent from 4.3
percent, while those stating jobs are "hard to get" edged up to 46.8
percent from 46.3 percent.
" And while this completely irrelevant data point (and how it could be down when the market is up is beyond is) is pushing stocks lower, elsewhere we see the Richmond Fed come way ahead of expectations, coming at 25 on expectations of 11. Nonetheless, since the recent weakness in other regional diffusion indices has been completely ignored in recent weeks, we see no reason why the market should suddenly pay attention to this traditionally secondary Fed indicator.

From the Conference Board press release:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in November, decreased slightly in December. The Index now stands at 52.5 (1985=100), down from 54.3 in November. The Present Situation Index declined to 23.5 from 25.4. The Expectations Index decreased to 71.9 from 73.6 last month.

The Consumer Confidence Survey® is based on a representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world’s largest custom research company. The cutoff date for December’s preliminary results was December 20th.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of the Consumer Research Center at The Conference Board: "Despite this month's modest decline, consumer confidence is no worse off today than it was a year ago. Consumers' assessment of the current state of the economy and labor market remains tepid, and their outlook remains cautious. Thus, all signs continue to suggest that the economic expansion will continue well into 2011, but that the pace of growth will remain moderate."

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions was slightly more pessimistic than in November. The percentage of consumers claiming business conditions are "bad" decreased to 41.2 percent from 42.9 percent, however, those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 7.5 percent from 8.5 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was less favorable than last month. Those saying jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 3.9 percent from 4.3 percent, while those stating jobs are "hard to get" edged up to 46.8 percent from 46.3 percent.

Consumers’ expectations were slightly less optimistic than in November. Those expecting an improvement in business conditions over the next six months edged up to 16.6 percent from 16.4 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen edged down to 12.1 percent from 12.4 percent. Consumers remained mixed about future job prospects. Those anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 19.5 percent from 19.1 percent, while those expecting more jobs declined to 14.3 percent from 15.1 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes decreased to 9.9 percent from 11.1 percent.

With that today's economic data is over, and the machines can take over now, slowly grinding stocks to a green close.

 


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Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Because he had high hopes, he had high hopes.

He had high apple pie in the sky hopes.

Whoops there goes another rubber tree plant. Ker-plunk.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcNyxxZvf8I

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Apologies for O/T

Paging Turd Ferguson.  What's up with metals today?  Who isn't manning their post for the EE, thus allowing silver to fly?

Or do you think there will be the huge smackdown at the close of London to get back well below the $30/oz on silver?

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:48 | Link to Comment B9K9
B9K9's picture

This makes no sense. The consensus at CalcRisk is that we should expect slow, steady growth in the 2-3% range as we slowly build out of the recession that ended a few quarters ago.

Who are you going to trust, respected economic observers backed by government statistics, or a bunch of sad sacks moping around all day?

/hairywanker

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:10 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Seeing as how all these 'Officials' have never gotten a damn thing right ever, I'll be happy to do the exact opposite of what these assmonkeys project.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:07 | Link to Comment I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture
Cafferty Faucher LLP Files Class Action Lawsuit against JPMorgan and HSBC Alleging Manipulation of Silver Bar Financial Products

CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Cafferty Faucher LLP (www.caffertyfaucher.com) filed a lawsuit on behalf of a class that includes purchasers and sellers of the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE-Arca “SLV”) and the ETF Securities Ltd. Silver Trust (NYSE-Arca “SIVR”) during the period March 1, 2008 through the present.

The lawsuit alleges that JPMorgan, the custodian of silver backing SLV securities and the sub-custodian of silver backing SIVR securities, and HSBC, the custodian of silver backing the SIVR securities, manipulated and suppressed the price of silver bar financial products, including SLV and SIVR, in violation of Section 9 of the Securities Exchange Act.

If you purchased or sold the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE-Arca “SLV”) or the ETF Securities Silver Trust (NYSE-Arca “SIVR”) securities during the period March 1, 2008 through the present, you may move the Court to serve as lead plaintiff within 60 days. The lawsuit, Case No. 1:10-cv-07768, was filed in the Northern District of Illinois on December 7, 2010 and is currently assigned to the Honorable Charles R. Norgle, Sr.

The case is also brought on behalf of investors who purchased or sold CME Group Inc’s “COMEX” silver futures or options contracts which are traded electronically through the Chicago-based “GLOBEX” platform and through COMEX. On behalf of these investors, the lawsuit alleges violations of the anti-manipulation provisions of the Commodity Exchange Act.

In addition to the claims under the anti-manipulation provisions of the Securities Exchange Act and the Commodity Exchange Act, the lawsuit also alleges that defendants violated federal antitrust law.

Cafferty Faucher LLP (www.caffertyfaucher.com), with offices in Chicago, Philadelphia and Ann Arbor, Michigan, is a national litigation firm that represents investors, businesses and consumers who have been injured by illegal marketplace practices. Firm contact information is available at the above website. The firm has recovered tens of billions of dollars for its clients in cases targeting illegal acts and practices in a variety of industries including securities, commodities, insurance, pharmaceuticals, banking services, medical, high-tech, food and beverage, construction materials, and many others. Combined, the firm’s attorneys have hundreds of years of experience working to recover losses on behalf of clients.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:35 | Link to Comment dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Looks like consumer confidence in the metals is pretty darn healthy.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:16 | Link to Comment LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Consumer confidence used to track the stock market.

Retail is now out of the stock market, so I expect CC will now follow the job market.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:09 | Link to Comment 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

but....but....i thought the herd flocked to the stores this holiday season because they were gaining confidence....no?

 

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They flocked confidently, but went home sheepishly after lightening their wallets. Nobody's charging up a storm at 22% interest

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:15 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Fox Business this morning was reporting that the east coast blizzard "put a damper" on an otherwise great shopping season...

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:51 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Lol. 

I live not far from the big stores in Manhattan. The famous ones. It took a long time for crowds to even form, and when they finally did it was 90% window shopping. Guess online shopping was the quiet success story, but here's a dirty lil secret: it actually hurts retail margins because it's cut throat on price and there's no possibility of sales pressure or on the spot deals. There's much less impulse buying. And there's less crossover since online shoppers don't have to travel through other departments to get what they're looking for. There's less browsing. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:05 | Link to Comment Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Nothing quite compares to a quiet morning, on-line shopping at Apmex.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wait, I thought the best consumer credit fleecing was already in the bag? Now its all being ruined by the storm again, just like last year? My goodness...it makes me blush to see how these liars lie!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:17 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Don't worry. The good little zombies were out spending like busy little beavers. At least that's what MasterCard says.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/12/28/132398467/best-news-so-far-consumers-holiday-spending-tops-pre-recession-level

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:35 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Exactly.  The present situation of the american consumer purchasing items on credit simply means that demand is being pulled forward...  Curious to see the glut that follows...

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And I cant wait to see all those credit shoppers cut up their cards and leave the bill with the credit card banksters!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 19:10 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Or get literally whipped to dig ditches...  people think that defaulting is a good idea, but records of their default will persist far after the dollar is dead.  Whoever rises from the ashes is going to have a nice list of who's been naughty or nice.  And, likewise, the donkeys that paid for the bailouts might want to know who fucked them when the hiring starts again too... 

Both the credit shoppers and banksters are on the same team...  ass raping responsible consumers and savers...  generally through entitlement legislation, whether it be for the poor huddled masses or their overlords.

No, the day that you should enjoy is when the middle class comes over and cuts up the credit cards and makes the bankers watch and then turns the bankers upside down shakes out their money and cuts up their credit cards too.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:48 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

I heard someone on CNBS yesterday talking about retail, and he said that places like Ann Taylor were up on top line, but were breaking even at best due to discounting.  Now there's a long-term business model.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

...but were breaking even at best due to discounting.  Now there's a long-term business model.

Nah, they'll just make it up on volume. Oh.....wait a minute, that was on volume. :>)

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:28 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Lot of pretend shoppers, looked busy but no one is maxing out their credit cards on cheap plastic Chinese crap. Sure some sales were made, as long as its 75% off, big deal its a wash.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 15:11 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Or, when gasoline and heating oil is 35% higher than last year, and groceries and medical bills and prescription meds are 25% higher, along with select other 'things needed to live,' Americans can buy less for a lot more.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:02 | Link to Comment francismarion
francismarion's picture

You are correct. But you miss the point. ZH has posed itself as 'anti-establishment'. This causes the incompletely formed mind, the odd-ball, the faux-chic, the nihilist, the anti-semite and a host of assorted other gibberers, myself among them, to gravitate here and form a peanut-gallery for the economically informed but woefully jaundiced views of its purveyors.

And when I say economically informed, I smile. I have yet to see an economist that, once he gets his face from in front of a mirror, can give you a coherent, unbiased view of the economy. And I laugh when I hear them predict what will happen. In a decade, in a year, in a day, in an hour, in a minute. Economics is not a science. It is shackled to the inscrutability of human behavior and the imponderables of a, by turns, benign and perverse physical universe. The keepers of this site are its priests. Their execrations are its rosary. We are its devotees.

But I weep when I read the arch comments that appear here, trailing after each rancid posting like a pack of dogs hungry for their master's affection. They howl, they scream, they curse, they emit every imprecation that one hears walking among the bolgias of the damned. Some are not lacking knowledge, even a form of wisdom. But, like me, they have submerged themselves in the mindless chatter, malice and stupidity this form of communication evokes.

Oh, we can leave. But we return. The guilty dog, gratefully accepting the curse and the boot of the master, and the snarls and bites of the pack. What adulation. What meaninglessness.

Yes, 101 years and counting, the economy is improving, albeit with QE money. Things will continue to rock along like this for quite some time. But this is ZH, things are going to get worse. Much worse. Ahooooooooooo! Wha-Wha-Wha-AhOOooooooooooo! 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

You clearly do not understand that Babylon is falling......

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

I couldn't junk you Francis, because frankly the writing style was beautiful. However, I do not see too many howls for the master's affection. Empires over expand and then tax the heck out of the middle class. The poor have nothing and the rich exempt themselves. Further, the form of market manipulation of NYC and DC is Mussolini corporatism. The odds of clearing the crisis without conflict are slim so I hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Is this somehow foolish?  

The howling has just begun from the investment community about low growth, this so happens to be same group that tends to fund reform when enough angst has been endured but it never seems in time this last century to avoid major military misadventure. Just another chapter of repetitive cyclical behavior. Yes, it IS predictable. Why? Because human nature doesn't change.  

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:16 | Link to Comment francismarion
francismarion's picture

Thank you for your kind words. Your reasoning is sound and I don't dispute most of your conclusions.

No, human nature doesn't change. But human behavior, in the aggregate, is prone to sudden unpredictable swings, that can bring the most discerning stategist's designs to nothing. And when someone does ring the bell and make a bundle, be he sage or simp, he is hailed as a genuis.

And overhanging all this is the tyranny of the natural world, waiting to remind us all that we are dried grass in a furnace. The only law of economics that you can depend on is that anything is possible. 

And as for any grand laws of history, being a fan, I can see what people are talking about. But in the here and now, patterns are nothing but ripples in a pond. They will not feed the bull-dog. The world is to complex, too rapidly evolving, too admit of shortcuts in deducing what comes next.

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 16:37 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

You just made more sense in the past few minutes with your posts than all the jabbering that has taken place in the comments section all year.

Wed, 12/29/2010 - 15:14 | Link to Comment flattrader
flattrader's picture

You just made more sense in the past few minutes with your posts than all the jabbering that has taken place in the comments section all year.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Are you done bleeding all over the blog now?

Get a grip, man. This is fight club.

Punch someone in the face or go the hell home.

And I didn't junk you because I'm hoping you are just drunk.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:13 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

geez, Swamp Fox...I'm impressed. You are a man of letters, clearly. I mean: "their execrations are..." and "every imprecation....among the bolgias (?) of the damned", let alone the artistic sentence structures. Brilliant. Must have avery nice thesaurus. I think you're full of shit, but no matter. I did NOT junk the post, strictly out of literary respect. Ciao. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:20 | Link to Comment francismarion
francismarion's picture

Just a baboon that swallowed a dictionary. Glad you are amused. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:55 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Marry-on, that is some serious word-smithing. I think I lost your thought stream because I was drowning in the word-flow. Very nice.

I think I agree with some of what you've written too. 

You must be a lawyer.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:33 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Actually, look at retail sales - Redbook and GS for the week and YOY. They were great.

Also not mentioned was the Richmond Fed which rose dramatically this week.

Also not mentioned was the State Street Investor Confidence number which also rose substantially.

Let's look at the good numbers as well as the bad.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Crispy
Crispy's picture

2011 is the year strip malls, malls and retail space gets completely smoked. Nobody will spend next year.

My office is in Southampton, NY. Highly affluent for those not familiar.   Saks fifth ave, which has had a shop here for 40 years closed its doors. Retail space cant get filled. Shops are struggling big time. I know a few of them personally.

If retail times are tough in one of the wealthiest areas in the entire world than its only going to get worse elsewhere.

Tighten yer belts folks...

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment B9K9
B9K9's picture

I've posted this before, but Newport Beach has some of the highest retail vacancies in SoCal.

I don't think it's an indicator of the lack of purchasing ability, but rather evidence that the smarter sheep are sniffing the air. This would correlate with continuing mutual fund outflows; the so-called 'smart money' might actually be living up to its name.

As for the areas still experiencing stronger retail sales, my guess is that it's taking place where the last cc purchases are being charged as consumers continue to live in free housing. When the ship is going down, the liquor cabinet is broken open with spirits dispensed for all.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:13 | Link to Comment francismarion
francismarion's picture

Anecdotes are always interesting. Here's mine. The parking lots of the malls are full. A new German restaurant just opened near me. Vacancies seem to have stabilized. Unemployment is still high, but not rising. QE money seems to have finally begun to work near me. The highway crossing the eastern perimeter of my principality is getting four-laned, completing the last section of a 150 mile stretch. People are on short budgets, but managing. My manufacturing business is about on track, seasonally adjusted. Happy New Year!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:26 | Link to Comment WineSorbet
WineSorbet's picture

Merry Xmas Francis, I mean Harry Wanger.  New handle for the new year?

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:38 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Exactly. I'm seeing the same thing in my business as well. I've posted here for months and this Fall indicated that we had seen a big pick up in demand. That trickled all the way through the chain: manufacturing and distribution.

If it's not a post about the end of the world, they don't want to read it here.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You dont have a business Harry, thats been proven here.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:57 | Link to Comment geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Francismarion:

 

What.happens.when.the.government.stimulus.runs.out.....?

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 17:21 | Link to Comment francismarion
francismarion's picture

The QE incarnations will run until they don't. Things will continue until they stop. Be ready for anything. Expect nothing. Be a source of strength. America has tremendous inherent resources. If half of the people here are as smart as they think they are, and don't sell themselves short, we will do fine, COME WHAT MAY.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:10 | Link to Comment More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

Its funny...Im sort everything and I lose money every day ...every day the machines kick in and I watch money drift out of my account.  Yet for some reason I sleep well at night...If I was long, I'd shit my pants all night watching the futures...maybe I am just plain stupid!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:14 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

As I've learned, being stupid and being wrong are mutually exclusive in this 'market'.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

This really doesn't matter. My son and I are still getting food stamps and we will keep this economy going.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

I'm laughing. :)

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:51 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

H I, mrs RoBo. you have such a nice son. i hope he doesn't look like you. he sounds kinda dashing and built, flexible too†

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

He is a spitting image of me. He looks like Chunk from the Goonies mainly because he doesn't work and trolls around the internet all day.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:49 | Link to Comment Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

"Chunk from the Goonies"

( laughing )

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:08 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

holy shit, man....I thought you waz dead. Whahappend? Come back to life for the grand finale?

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

How does this sound:

Consumer Confidence: Down

Gold consumer confidence: Up! Those holding gold feel mighty pumped. 

 

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:15 | Link to Comment Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

My son and I can't afford gold. We choose to buy cubic zirconia instead.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:53 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

but he buys the good stuff for him and his yoga bitch.

LuLlemmon and V Secrets.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:33 | Link to Comment Dexter Morgan
Dexter Morgan's picture

My gold and silver is not for sale.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:12 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Commercial Real Estate / REITS are down almost 0.3 percent!  Even after a monumental run up over the last 5 days!

IYR is a monster!

It's a Festivus MIRACLE!

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:13 | Link to Comment MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

You want consumer confidence? Coming soon to a Exxon pump near you; $5.06 a US Gal.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

It moved from 3.05 yesterday afternoon to 3.15 this morning where I live.  And I don't know if the guy will be fired today, but one of the reporters on the local radio station let out some truth when he said it could be around 3.74 by April.  This on the heels of many letters to the editor the last few days in the local rag screaming about investigating the wild price swings we experience here.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:56 | Link to Comment SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Unfortunately their investigation will not include access to the Mariner Eccles building, therefore any investigation conducted will bear nothing except a scapegoat.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Who needs consumers....or confidence?  Really, the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street moved on from such trite things months ago when it decided to invest in The Bernank.  Once you can get your mind around Bernanke Bananas and the whole idea that America is now a Banana Republic Tree, all things are possible, and no longer need we bother with things like consumer and confidence.  LOL!

Tell you what, I'll sign the check over at the Roach Motel [SPY] today 'cause it doesn't matter a wit.  Let's get blotto on free drinks and surf the net for the new little Miss Euro mpeg floating around out there, the one in which she went down on EVERYONE [just released today, in fact].  So much for that currency manipulation on Friday when we all climbed into the Banana Republic tree.  I'm sure The Bernank has already erased its loss on that one...but who needs accounting anyway...

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:56 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

Once you can get your mind around Bernanke Bananas

i think his banana, is singular and yellow. not pink†

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:57 | Link to Comment SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

"Bernank the Great", his thesis being that an all-out, no holds barred, any and ALL cost rescue of BANKS and FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS (criminal or not) will rescue "us" from a depression.

By the time the unintended consequences of The Bernank's actions start to take effect (we see trickles now, but alas the Ponzi is still sticky-taped together for a while) we will need to create a new word for what The Bernank will have created. "Depression" will be far too mild, I fear.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 16:18 | Link to Comment Mr. Anonymous
Mr. Anonymous's picture

I think the word 'Revolution' will suffice.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:19 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

These back to back data points (CS and Consumer COnfidence) have just bumped the QE3 long play up by 5 points. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:20 | Link to Comment wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Won't matter, the trend is up, everyone with cash to put to work is buying into stocks commodities.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:26 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wow those people will be totaly crushed, cant wait for that day.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:54 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Love the Pavlovian conditioning: a bell rings, and people plunk their money down in exchange for pieces of paper like zombies. That's gonna end well :-)

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:19 | Link to Comment squexx
squexx's picture

Yet stocks keep going up! I'd love to personally pump a few slugs into the Bernank and the rest of his Satanic Tribe cronies!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I'll hold them down for you.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:37 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

Stocks are going up because the bernank
repos them from the PDs just like
treasuries. We need a real audit but
we'll never get one. It wouldn't be a
confidence booster.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:20 | Link to Comment threefingerscam
threefingerscam's picture

Says Lynn Franco, Director of the Consumer Research Center at The Conference Board: "Despite this month's modest decline, consumer confidence is no worse off today than it was a year ago..."

Oh brother, a year's worth of Fed largesse and cons-conf is only able to manage a year ago level. Gotta love that spin. A three legged dog named Lucky.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:21 | Link to Comment oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

Well, if the number is bad, people need to buy the fucking dip in expectation of more QEs. Hehe.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:22 | Link to Comment trillion_dollar...
trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

Got 5 new credit card offers in the mail last week. My confidence is sky high.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You should take them and max them out buying silver, then cut them up.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

I enjoy some of your commentary SheepDog but really. So I follow your plan. The tab gets thrust onto the taxpayer which gets hit with a fast ramp from POMO to awful stagflation or hyperinflation.

Show the difference between yourself and TBTF's that justify doing the same kind of crooked crap albeit slightly different forms. Buy silver with the money you EARNED, otherwise piss off. Ready for that Fight Club thing now.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:19 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its going to TBTF stagflation anyway, may as well let Wall St buy your gold and silver! Dont worry, the avg 'middle class' family has 0 to $2,000 in their account, theyll never 'pay' anything back anyway so may as well let the TBTF buy your PM stash!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's interesting that you say that. At the family Christmas table last Saturday my normally intelligent attorney sister turned to me and proclaimed that the economic problems must be over since she's beginning to get CC offers in the mail again.

When I explained to her that the credit junkie banks are desperate for that last credit fix to juice their profit numbers and that what she's seeing is exactly what happened just before the last "crash" she looked crest fallen. She knew deep down that I was correct. But she was hoping, praying even, that both she and I were wrong. What she was really unhappy about was my informing her of reality. She even blamed me for raining on her parade, convinently ignoring the fact that it was already raining outside.

People will believe what they wish to believe regardless of reality. When the ugly truth becomes unavoidable, they then cast about for scapegoats rather than accept that they deluded themselves. There's always some politician more than happy to provide that scapegoat.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:40 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

If you keep telling your friends and

family about reality, they will not buy

the fucking dip and then you will have

no one to sell to.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:42 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Don't get me started on trying to convince attorneys of the present state of the economy...  Not only do you have to argue, but you have to argue with people who argue for a living and like what they do...  fucking asinine.  There will be a day when they come crawling asking for your advice (rather than thinking, like MDs, that a JD is a license bestowing the knowledge of all things human and celestial).

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

In December of 2008 when Silver was temporarily cratering, I was advising my sisters and brothers to purchase Silver (and Gold for that matter). All of them told me it was too expensive to purchase at $9 to $10 per ounce. This year I advised them to purchase Silver. All of them told me it was too expensive to buy at $30 per ounce.

Some things never change.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:48 | Link to Comment Lets Hang Parliament
Lets Hang Parliament's picture

CD - all the sheeple are asleep - but they think they are awake........

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:00 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The disconnect, CD daahhling, is that 2-3 generations of Americans have been raised in Polyanna bliss. Things will just keep getting better without any need to sacrifice. Sacrifice? That word has been banished from the lingo. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DAMN what suddenly happened to the Great Confidence Festival 2010??

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:28 | Link to Comment oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

No people here talks about the Richmond Fed index is 25 where expectation is 11. Beats a lot.

 

Here on this forum people are biased.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:00 | Link to Comment Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

When a shill like Marketwatch says investors pay no attention to the Richmond Index because it is unimportant and a lousy barometer, that is because it is a worthless measure. Like your Texas Manufacturer's index. In fact, all those idiot surveys that are nothing but publicity pranks.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:30 | Link to Comment kornholio
kornholio's picture

just buy the fucking dip

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment system failure
system failure's picture

I believe the dip buying will now be the FEDERAL RESERVE as they start trying to catch the falling knife. Once they realize they are the ones being offloaded upon, they will stop QE2 early and let the chips fall. A couple of key bankruptcies, a few misteps on weekly economic calendar, and more euro news spun into good news will be all it takes. The FED will become the BTFD player by themselves as everyone unloads. Let the unwind begin.... 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

This is what they're already doing...  you're just forgetting step 2 where they unload on GSEs, etc...  who in turn, during step 3, unload on the principal actors of the fraud against humanity for a pittance.

A bit of this entire scenario has already taken place...  and phase 2 is well into effect.  Just depends on what asset class you're talking about...

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:46 | Link to Comment oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

You under-estimated Fed's commitment in "buying the fucking dip" and soon enough the mom and pop's will start doing the same. hehe

Really. What is Fed's incentive to stop buying the fucking dip?

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:51 | Link to Comment system failure
system failure's picture

Think about contrarian investing and apply that to BTFD.....

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:27 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Ssssshhh....we've got them accepting hand-feeding now...don't startle them.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Don't think you get it that that's what's reinforcing the pain in the economy in the first place. The longer that goes on, the lower we sink. And in their wisdom they'll take that as the cue to it even more, even bigger. If you have a doubt just look at markets this morning: housing prices in double dip, consumer confidence cooling in a 'recovery', but prices skying. That will hurt the bottom lines of the entire S&P. And the US economy continues to get sold off to the highest bidder.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:47 | Link to Comment system failure
system failure's picture

Thanks for your input, I wish you the best with that mantra.....

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:12 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

The fed's overpaid the PDs by about

50% for equities since they're a bunch

of stupid academics rather than traders.

So if mom and pop never come in, the

fed's the bagholder. Course, without

an audit, we'll never know. You just

know the bernank did it though....saving

the world and everything.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:25 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Depends how well SackBoy is hedged for the (inevitable?!) fall.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:15 | Link to Comment unununium
unununium's picture

Fed stops printing on one condition only: when wages start rising.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:33 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Previous 9 Forecast 10.67 Actual 25

DavidC

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:06 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Thank you for posting that since all good news is pretty much always ignored here. Also, Investor Confidence was very high as well. 

Strong retail sales, malls packed and people buying hand over fist. Doesn't sound like the world's ending to me.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:33 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

geez, Wanker... you are, like, totally incorrigible. What are we gonna do with you? A little help here....? 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 15:03 | Link to Comment andybev01
andybev01's picture

When in Rome, Harry.

 

If you want exuberent optimism you may want to start your own blog, or fix the economy, end the FED and put the Bernank away for a long, long time.

The only reason I can think of as to why you persist is that you enjoy a bit of mental S&M?

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 22:40 | Link to Comment Zeddicus
Zeddicus's picture

Question for you, Harry: if I accept your hyperbole about people "buying hand over fist" for the sake of argument, please tell us WHAT people are buying all this stuff WITH, since employment is still way down, real estate values are down more, and personal income has not improved. 

Now, once you have stated the obvious answer, explain how you can laud this as any kind of long-term good news.

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Meanwhile, stocks continue to defy gravity, and our politicians and the Fed continue to try to defy the laws of sound economics!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:34 | Link to Comment TexDenim
TexDenim's picture

Thank Goodness! A little bad news to boost ES. I was getting worried. Need to make that hurdle by year-end!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:35 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

REITS and IYR now positive.

I would say it's unfuckingbelievable but...you know.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:39 | Link to Comment Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

Are you saying that CNBC lied about the consumers DELVERAGING, SAVING and SPENDING? How could such a trusted news source be so misleading?

 

This "biggest holiday sales ever" push by the media is a bit comedic. Has anyone seen the baltic dry index lately? I suppose everything that was bought was already shipped in the months prior.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:38 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

......" Early numbers show U.S. consumers on track to spend over $450 billion by January 1.

That's three percent more than last year - the best increase since 2007.

Economist Kit Yarrow believes those estimates are on the low side.

"What they are doing is spending more like five percent more and that's in stores," Yarrow said.  "Online, its more like 17 or 18 percent, so it's been a stronger holiday season than really anybody predicted.".....

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:42 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumers spent 5.5% more in the 2010 holiday season than they did a year earlier, buying lots of clothes to counter cold December weather and even big-ticket items like jewelry and luxury goods, according to the SpendingPulse division of MasterCard Advisors. The report measures sales excluding cars for the 50 days from Nov. 5 through Dec. 24. "If last year's holiday story was about gaining some stability, this year's is about getting back to growth," said Michael McNamara, vice president of research and analysis for SpendingPulse, in a Monday statement. Online sales were strong, up more than 15% for the period, SpendingPulse reported.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Did you ever think people might be buying less stuff but paying more for it? Kind of blows your recovery meme out of the water doesn't it?

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Why the uptick in shipping all year rail/truck/fedex/ups/ and online sales ?

 

..... AAR weekly report: Intermodal loads bear brunt of latest gains


Heading into the year’s final stretch, U.S. railroads continued to post traffic gains. During the week ending Dec. 18, they originated a relatively flat 271,709 carloads, but boosted intermodal volume 5 percent to 220,187 units compared with traffic from the same week last year, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR).

Container volume increased 4.9 percent and trailer volume rose 5.2 percent, while 12 of 19 carload commodity groups registered gains. 

Canadian railroads reported weekly volume of 71,009 carloads, up 8.5 percent, and 43,782 containers and trailers, up 4.5 percent year over year. Mexican railroads’ weekly carloads dipped 0.3 percent to 13,951 units, but intermodal volume increased 7 percent to 6,738 units.

Through 2010’s first 50 weeks, 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads originated 18.7 million carloads, up 9.2 percent, and 13.7 million containers and trailers, up 14.6 percent vs. year-ago levels.......

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Strip out canada and carloads were flat. And fedex missed earnings.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:09 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Thanks for the info Spalding. This should be no surprise with an incredibly strong Richmond Fed number to go along with the Philly strength. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:41 | Link to Comment sbenard
sbenard's picture

Now that election euphoria is in the rear-view mirror and on the horizon, reality sets in!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:40 | Link to Comment D-Falt
D-Falt's picture

This is good for America!  I love it when logical people are able to mass their voice and correct the FEBA attitude of all those who cheerlead for the lemmings to jump off of cliffs.  Stay skeptical, stay negative.  The pessimist never suffers disappointment. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:44 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

I'm an optimist. I think we're only fucked

for the next 10 years or so.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:47 | Link to Comment thepigman
thepigman's picture

So there will be far, far better buying

opportunities ahead. Say 4000 on the

Dow or so, which is what a 2% GDP

going out to infinity is actually worth.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:50 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

So this explains why silver is now skirting with $30 and gold has blown past $1400. Also hot it EURUSD which has just begun a 180 on it's earlier declines.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:53 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

No sooner did I say that and EURUSD, gold, and silver all reverse again.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

I'm thinking of changing my name to Misses Big in 2011.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 11:59 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

vegetable canning, bitch!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:02 | Link to Comment gkm
gkm's picture

More 2007 deja vu all over again.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Kitco has silver up .75 to $30.03. Happy daze are here again!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:21 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

evidently the Shopaganda was wrong. My local news had a feature on this man buying his wife a present on Christmas eve. What was obvious to anyone watching the piece was that there was no one else in the mall. People aren't buying presents, if they're spending more its at the gas pump, or the grocery store. Retailers were giving huge discounts, and still no one was buying, but if inflation is too much money chasing too few goods, then what is deflation?. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:54 | Link to Comment Azwethinkweiz
Azwethinkweiz's picture

deflation is the house you paid $1.2 million for now being worth only $600,000 and falling...

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:22 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

QE2 "Wealth Effect": FAIL

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:32 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

You mean none of you got a Lexus or Mercedes with a ginormous red bow on top for Christmas?

What!!!???

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:58 | Link to Comment -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Ha.  I told my husband that if I ever walk outside on Christmas morning and see that in our driveway, I'd file for divorce.  That's got to be the most ridiculous marketing campaign of all time.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

What percentage of the population do you think are maxing their cards with full intention of defaulting?

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:01 | Link to Comment element115
element115's picture

We blew some coin this Christmas. I bought an Oakley Minute Machine and got the Misses a 32gb iPad 3G + some diamond earrings. Now looking at a new (used) Range Rover. All done with cash - business was good this year and we got a very generous bonus (I am a software dev). Stores here were busy.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:09 | Link to Comment HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

As a retailer, it was our best holiday season in our company's 9-year existence. Also was the best Q3 & Q4 in our history. 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Youre not a retailer Harry, you have no business, already proven here. And selling black light velvet paintings of Elvis and bullfighters and dogs playing poker out of your van doesnt really count.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:37 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

LOL.... when I'm bored, I troll the threads for SheepDog on Harry. HA!

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 15:15 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Harry Wanger sells his body, and no bid is too low.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 15:21 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

you're givin' Sheep a run for his money

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 23:50 | Link to Comment the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

where do you live, nearest cross street is good enough, I'll google earth it. Expect the whole neighborhood is about the same. That should make my yearly bonus anyway.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 13:56 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

After Case Shiller no's, I'm fairly Confident Housing is in a 2nd leg down.  Millions in unsold inventory plus the banks Shadow foreclosed inventory along with Higher Mtg rates , all point to Lower prices for 2011.

Rates are going up across the Globe..US should see 5% next Yr. 

QE, Deficits and Tax cuts are all bearish for bonds. There's a price to be paid for all that and 3% isn't it.

The Mkts let Robo have fun in the QQQQ sandbox but it's time to come in, put your toys, away, the Vigilantes are back.

TLT has a rather Large head and shoulder pattern, Monthly and Weekly Stochastic. on Sell.  I just use Stochastic on Multiple time frame. It's saying something.  Greenspan himself said Mkts wouldn't let the Bernank off easy.

Contrary to ZH opinion theBernank doesn't own the entire Bond Mkt.

 

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 14:13 | Link to Comment virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Avoid the Muni's ! (MUB.. 'Mugger Bonds') going to see see many Muni Defaults. Not good for Consumer Confidence. lol

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 16:35 | Link to Comment Herman the German
Herman the German's picture

Dollar = fucked

Euro= fucked

Sterling = fucked

All hail doomsday? I think so.

Roll on the gold bitchez

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