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Consumer Confidence Is Now Lower Than During All Recent Financial Crises And Tragedies

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One chart stands out in today's Breakfast with Rosie: the comparison of yesterday's surprisingly weak Consumer Confidence number with comparable prints taken at financial crises and tragedies of the past such as the October 1987 markets crash, Desert Storm, LTCM, the dot com collapse, September 11, Katrina, and Lehman. No surprise: yesterday's was the lowest. And as a reminder, the president's reelection campaign kicks into higher gear in a few months...against the backdrop of the most unhappy popular sentiment in recent years. Just how do QE 3 skeptics believe he will succeed, when still faced with consumer confidence that two years into the "recovery" is lower than during any other previous economic "expansion", even as congress is about to unleash the most brutal wave of fiscal consolidation (aka austerity) in recent American history.

 

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Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:26 | 1331088 Everyman
Everyman's picture

That graph should be good for about 245 points to the upside for the DOW tomorrow.

These "financial guys" make me wanna puke.  How asinine can they actually be?  This is a recovery?  Kudlow calls this shit "green Shoots"???

I call it BULLSHIT!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:29 | 1331096 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

And as bizarre as it sounds, Kudlow and Obama are on the same team.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:41 | 1331127 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

Along with Ron "John Birch Society" Paul.

Go team.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:52 | 1331144 jaffi
jaffi's picture

Last I checked, Ron Paul is not a John Bircher.  Ron Paul is an individualist libertarian who subscribes to the Austrian School of economics.  Far from a John Bircher, indeed.  If anything, I would call Ron Paul a Misesian with some Rothbardian tendencies.  

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 08:00 | 1331766 Thomas
Thomas's picture

At least the EU guys act apologetic before a Death by Bongo ceremony. BTW-Anybody know that song from the twenties about "strange fruit" in reference to lynchings? I think I am going to need it for a blog.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 08:04 | 1331770 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Took me all of 30 seconds to find it...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4ZyuULy9zs

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:42 | 1331302 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

You might want to check again. Of course, you'll most likely hold tight to whatever cherished delusions it is that you currently hold.

Disclaimer: I voted for Ron Paul in 2008

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 08:05 | 1331771 Medea
Medea's picture

Silly rabbit, voting is for kids.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:52 | 1331153 razorthin
razorthin's picture

you're kidding, right?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:05 | 1331202 downwiththebanks
downwiththebanks's picture

To what political party does he affiliate himself?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:49 | 1331319 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

You're battling cognitive dissonance.

So I wouldn't plan on making too much progress here.

 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:51 | 1331329 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

One of the two allowed by TPTB..................

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 23:24 | 1331409 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

considering how different from bush obama claimed and seemed to be, one might well entertain the possibility that ron paul would prove to be a fraud as well.  only the event will tell, but he has spent a very long time in the wilderness being ignored and mocked.  seems less likely that he is lying about his intentions. 

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 07:43 | 1331738 Bob
Bob's picture

True enough.  The problem I see is that he would have virtually no ability whatsoever to make good on his campaign promises.  One guy, even the POTUS, is gonna end the Fed?  Remove the US military from the rest of the world?  Let the TBTF's BK? 

Sorry, that takes a like-minded, willing and committed congress.  Ain't gonna happen. Face it: It's a wet dream.

Hell, if he could do it, I'd be willing to risk it and sort out the social welfare issues later. 

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 08:51 | 1331882 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

I've never heard Ron Paul make "promises" other than to try. He openly states that there is "only so much he can do."

 

But then again with congress willing to give the executive branch pretty much complete and total control who knows... Although thats only to progress the statist cause.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 09:00 | 1331915 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Yeap. I think Ron is just telling it like it is. He probably doesn't expect things to be fixed before everything falls apart. Maybe he is laying the ground work for after everything falls apart. Or maybe he is just another politician who has found his niche.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:39 | 1331130 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Obama likes guys?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:47 | 1331316 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

they are on the same team but armstrongs 72 year bottom is june this year so gold revaluation must be soon

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 08:02 | 1331764 MolotovCockhead
MolotovCockhead's picture

And as much as you want to laugh at their foolishness, we probably end up crying.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:32 | 1331095 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

so rosie is free again?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:43 | 1331305 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Serf's up.

You still frequenting RJ?

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 00:13 | 1331488 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

na, haven;t checked it in months.  anything of value there?  lots of clowns on this site these days..

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:32 | 1331103 Milestones
Milestones's picture

There is never a right time to die--- or bite the bullet;- but sometime in our lives you gotta do what ya gotta do. We keep putting it off because tomorrow will be a better day to do it --right?    right!           Milestones

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:32 | 1331107 ParaZite
ParaZite's picture

Green shoots always spring up from horse shit, or something dead for a long time. 

Our economy is a perfect combination of horse shit and death for a few green shoots to pop up... when the light of day actually hits them though, they quickly wither and die. 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:46 | 1331147 CH1
CH1's picture

Yeah, but everything sufficiently new or different is punished.

Regulations smother actual green shoots.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:50 | 1331150 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"Green shoots always spring up from horse shit..."

And in the right conditions, brown mushrooms spring from cow shit.  Maybe we're high on the wrong metaphor?  Anyone ever consider that?  My new thesis: It's a shrooming economy!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:59 | 1331173 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

Shroomshoots make for some really fun visions of recovery!

+ice-cream bars..

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:11 | 1331217 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

V.I.

 

Good Sir, for thou unknown to thee for more now than a fortnight for reason of Love or Vanity.. let it be known thou’s presence bring such color to gloomy times, the light that does break the darkness.. please do allow a spare moment, lest forgotten we shall float.. victim to our own sense of lacking.

 

Or…

 

Get your ass back here once in a while Fucker! We miss ya!

 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:28 | 1331271 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Well that could explain a lot. Most everybody out there has to be tripped out big time to buy the wagon load being dished out by TPTB.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:55 | 1331158 razorthin
razorthin's picture

flush the toilet and clean water can refill it.  but we just keep pissing in it.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:42 | 1331128 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

nikkei is gettin hammered.  -1.72% so far.  tomorrow is gonna be fun.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:44 | 1331142 sasebo
sasebo's picture

I'll say it again -

I've got news for the stupid asshole bankers, delusional asshole two bit politicians & dumber than dumb Fed trying to run this country - IT AIN"T WORKING.

It's all about results & there AIN"T NONE.

 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 23:10 | 1331372 Glitch
Glitch's picture

Depends on what results you want.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:47 | 1331148 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I slammed my wallet shut when the criminals started operating in broad daylight. Screw obama, bernanke, jpm, gs, buffett, munger, and every other a-hole running this country into the ground. A pox on all their globalist houses. I'm glad the consumer eCONoME is in the toilet.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:04 | 1331201 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Ditto! Couldn't have said it better.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:13 | 1331218 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I wish I could say this and mean it..

 

"and so it began"

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:50 | 1331149 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

The surprise is that consumer confidence has held in so well. Hope is a strange beast.

80% of Americans largest investment is their house (we can argue later about whether a home should be viewed as an investment). Since peak housing prices (2006) total home equity lost amounts to an average of $105k per home owner. There was a $9k drop in the first quarter alone.

Bernanke has done SFA for these people. And some might suggest that the "animal spirits" reinforced through access to cheap money has actually hurt these 80% as their cost of food and fuel has risen on average 30%-40% in a year.

I don't know where this ends, i just know how.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:14 | 1331224 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@lizzy36

Who knew the BS artists could have gotten us this far since March 2009? But the beginning of the end does fell very very close. The cliff we are approaching looks really steep. Good luck to us all, especially the ZH oldtimers.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 00:07 | 1331486 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Steepness is not the problem. It's the depth.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 00:11 | 1331491 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

how about calling a primary residence an asset.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 08:29 | 1331812 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Residences are not assets, but "bunkers" might be...

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:50 | 1331157 Diablo
Diablo's picture

FYI; consumer confidence was in the 30's in the beginning of 2009

 

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 02:25 | 1331595 Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

Ah yes. But, Diabo, don't forget to factor in inflation. Thirty points was the nominal Consumer Confidence number.

True Consumer Confidence numbers---accounting for inflation---in the beginning of 2009 was somewhere between "Is this my '08 year-end statement?" and "Where can I sign up for this $10k gov't cash rebate if I buy a house?"

;)

 

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:54 | 1331165 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Can one man put his own selfish re election needs over the better good of 350 Americans and initiate more rounds of stimulus to buy a few extra votes?...why you better fucking believe Obama is selfish enough!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 21:54 | 1331167 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

350 million Americans....

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:01 | 1331175 web bot
web bot's picture

Glad you're quoting Rosie again. His expertise is not picking stocks... its on the BIG picture.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:02 | 1331194 web bot
web bot's picture

If we see QE3... then KNOW THIS FOR CERTAIN, we're totally and completely #ucked. It would have to be that bad. My guess is that we'd see Bernake leave before the implementation of QE3. We say a lot of things on here about him, but he is not Paul Krugman, er... I mean stupid.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:28 | 1331274 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

The QE3 denial is part of the con game. They want us to believe that the recovery is real. Shit, THEY want to believe its real because the powers that be have the most to gain from keeping the ponzi going. In the end, the numbers dont lie as the federal government cannot finance its operations with the fed lending the fiat digits. Throw in some GDP misses and the deficit just got a whole lot bigger. Shit, another technical recession and the deficit will jump close to 2 trillion per year. Imagine that!

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 23:29 | 1331414 web bot
web bot's picture

If Obama was a man of foresight and wanted to secure his place in history and not in some sort of I Spy picture book, he would hold an emergency conference tomorrow morning, announce that due to unprecedented times, he is scrapping health care reform, cutting the US military by $300B, implementing Glass-Steagall and raise taxes. He would message that he is tackling the problems head on, regardless if he gets re-elected or not. He would say that he intends to balance the budget by 2015. He would say that there is still time, so the markets don't need to over-react, but that time is running out unless something is done. The markets would have a line in the sand which would restore normalcy, albeit a deep recession.

People would respect the man for his forsight in seeing that the US is on the precipice.

I follow web bot predictions and I am sickened by what is coming... and we're talking months, not years until the collapse. 

<not associated with web bot project>

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 00:05 | 1331478 honestann
honestann's picture

And that chance he will do that is...

... one chance in a quadrillion.

Plus or minus 1%.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:14 | 1331226 gwar5
gwar5's picture

No surprise.

People fully realize that after trillions of their money being flushed down the banker's golden toilet things are worse, not better. There's still a sociopath in the White House and he's turned the entire economy over to other, unelected, sociopaths running the Fed. 

There's nothing left to do but hit the ditch and hope it's not an F5.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:32 | 1331276 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Confidence is soaring on Wall Street where Bonuses are expected to hit new highs this year. This "drop in confidence" you mention here must involve asking some people outside Manhattan...on Main Street for a change.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:46 | 1331322 camoes
camoes's picture

So does this mean we should BTFD?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 22:49 | 1331323 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 23:06 | 1331356 gall batter
gall batter's picture

the system or planet is paper mache. that's it.   

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 23:05 | 1331363 anti Oligarchy
anti Oligarchy's picture

Ok - so what will QE3 be then. Obviously the free money to the market didn't work to start the economy so more won't do anything

Structured in any other way the money won't help the market

As for Obama - he doesn't care - republicans will make sure he is re-elected. A shoe in for him is the surest way to gain more seats (more power) in congress

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 23:28 | 1331422 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

they probably did this survey outside on an especially hot day, people were grumpy

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 23:48 | 1331451 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

QE3 is another fantasy dreamed up by delusional longs. Benny has no room for a QE3 after a failed 1 and 2 fiascos. Plus, Timmy can't sell any more treasury notes since he is over the debt limit, so there is nothing for Benny to buy with the fake dollars.

Anyone holding stocks long planning on QE3 is about to get a rude awakening.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 00:46 | 1331527 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Quantitative easing has been a godsend for wall street and pension funds. The losers are the general public, especially the middle class that doesnt own financial assets but is too "wealthy" to qualify for food stamps, section 8 or welfare. It was primarily QE and the suspension of mark to market accounting that pumped the SPX from 652 to 1370. Take away the punch bowl and 1000 SPX will be here by the fall. I expect the additional version of QE to come no later than Jan 2012.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 00:55 | 1331541 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

The big bears come in the fall.  They'll need something in place by September.  Otherwise they'll risk undoing the 'progress' of QE 1 & 2.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 00:08 | 1331483 UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

But can the Republicans come up with an alternative candidate who isn't a religious nutter?

 

Unlikely.

 

4 more years of hope and change coming up!

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 07:26 | 1331722 Agent 440
Agent 440's picture

No. Which means it's time to consider being a religious nutter. : )

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 00:34 | 1331513 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 03:33 | 1331630 dcb
dcb's picture

you make certain assumptions that I don't think are valid.

I don't think you can assume he wants to win again. endorsing bernenke and the Qe kind of shows that to me. Qe is a disaster for everyone not wealthy. the get worse and worse off and get no interest on their savings. you don't win reelection by making 95% poorer and the top one percent much better off. Hence one must assume that is his real adgenda. He will get paid handsomely for doing so when he leaves office.

I will add that his presidency will make it twice as hard for an african american ever to be elected to the presidency again. the racists will never vote for him anyway, and now way am I ever going to get fooled by someone like him again. he will be remembered as a carter at best. threw his lot in with the bankers, and I my opinion the bankers and all their backers are traitors to america. I don't think my views are outside of the norm anymore.

he decided he was a one term president when he threw his lot in with the bankers.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 03:36 | 1331631 dcb
dcb's picture

you make certain assumptions that I don't think are valid.

I don't think you can assume he wants to win again. endorsing bernenke and the Qe kind of shows that to me. Qe is a disaster for everyone not wealthy. the get worse and worse off and get no interest on their savings. you don't win reelection by making 95% poorer and the top one percent much better off. Hence one must assume that is his real adgenda. He will get paid handsomely for doing so when he leaves office.

I will add that his presidency will make it twice as hard for an african american ever to be elected to the presidency again. the racists will never vote for him anyway, and now way am I ever going to get fooled by someone like him again. he will be remembered as a carter at best. threw his lot in with the bankers, and I my opinion the bankers and all their backers are traitors to america. I don't think my views are outside of the norm anymore.

he decided he was a one term president when he threw his lot in with the bankers.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 08:31 | 1331820 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

No one ever voluntarily gives up the Presidency. If he wasn't hooked on power and prestige he wouldn't be there in the first place.

To win, he doesn't have to fix the problems. He doesn't even have to promise to fix the problems. He only has to get his supporters high on Hopium again and the fixed voting machines will do the rest.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 03:47 | 1331637 suckerfishzilla
suckerfishzilla's picture

One of the things I have confidence in is that there is an international banking cartel that is bent on usurping the Bill of Rights and US national sovereignty.  I am confident that everything will continue to suck.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 06:28 | 1331695 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

Long on Prozac. 

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 06:54 | 1331709 TopOnePercent
TopOnePercent's picture

Us financial policy is flawed in the sense that the current policies kill the small fish, the very food for the large fish.

In order to replace the estuary to be filled with a continuous supply of small fish, there have to be several structural changes.

 

Tax structure change 

 

The complete removal of both individual and corporate income taxes, to be replaced by a consumption tax not to exceed 15%.

Education

Free internet based education for all.

 

Medicine

Visible market prices

No limits to the numbers of doctors allowed to medical schools.

Eliminate legal largesse.

 

Banks

Cannot be allowed to speculate in the commodities markets or the securities markets .

Banks should create debt and manage the debt on a local basis.

Securitization restrictions

 

Securities markets

Defragment the exchanges

IBs cannot speculate in securities, can only create securities.

All information is wiki based made available to all.

 

This is a simplistic list, but would go a long way towards making the US a stellar economy.

 

Do note that none of them are being addressed politically.

 

But you can write this down as a guarantee, failure to implement the likes of these suggestions will guarantee economic failure.

 

Big fish have to have little fish to stay alive.

 

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 06:57 | 1331710 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

It's all noise in the Long Emergency

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 10:46 | 1332245 Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

In other news, you read a book that has all the answers.  Good for you.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 07:47 | 1331747 JohnsonSmith
JohnsonSmith's picture

People completely realize that after trillions of their money is being glowing down the banker's golden toilet things are not better. There's still a sociopath in the White House and he's curved the entire economy over to other, unelected, sociopaths running the Fed.   Paydays loans

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 08:57 | 1331902 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

LOL you used Congress and austerity in the same sentence - funny guy you.

Thu, 06/02/2011 - 14:08 | 1333198 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

from the header story..

Just how do QE 3 skeptics believe he will succeed, when still faced with consumer confidence that two years into the "recovery" is lower than during any other previous economic "expansion", even as congress is about to unleash the most brutal wave of fiscal consolidation (aka austerity) in recent American history

answer: because consumer condifence is higher than when was elected, and much higher than the lowest it got to, in 2009.

duh.

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