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Consumer Confidence Plunges From 56.5 To 46.0, Consensus At 55.0, Present Situation Index Lowest Since February 1983
US CONF BD: PRESENT SITUATION INDEX LOWEST SINCE FEB'83US
US CONF BD: JOBS, EARNINGS CONCERNS LIKELY TO CURB SPENDING
CONF BRD:PLENTIFUL LESS HARD-TO-GET -44.1% FEB V JAN -42.1%
US CONF BOARD: JOBS HARD-TO-GET 47.7% IN FEB VS JAN 46.5%
US CONF BOARD: JOBS PLENTIFUL 3.6% IN FEB VS JAN 4.4%
US CONF BOARD: CONS EXPECTATIONS INDX 63.8 IN FEB V JAN 77.3
US CONF BOARD: PRESENT SITUATION INDX 19.4 IN FEB V JAN 25.2
US CONF BOARD: JAN INDEX REVISED UP 0.6 (ORIGINALLY 55.9)
Looks like the ABC Consumer Comfort Index was right all long
From Stone & McCarthy:
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell drastically to 46.0 in February from a revised figure of 56.5 (previously 55.9).
The reported consumer confidence index for February was much lower than our forecast for a reading of 54.0.
The Bloomberg market consensus estimate was 55.0 with individual estimates in a range from 50.9 to 59.0.
In February, the two main components of the consumer confidence index were as follows:
February Present Situation: 19.4 versus 25.2 in January (prev. 25.0)
February Expectations: 63.8 versus 77.39 in January (prev. 76.5)
From Conference Board:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased
in January, declined sharply in February. The Index now stands at 46.0
(1985=100), down from 56.5 in January. The Present Situation Index
decreased to 19.4 from 25.2. The Expectations Index declined to 63.8
from 77.3 last month.
The Consumer Confidence Survey® is based on a representative sample
of 5,000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The
Conference Board by TNS. TNS is the world's largest custom research
company. The cutoff date for February’s preliminary results was
February 17th.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research
Center: "Consumer Confidence, which had been improving over the past
few months, declined sharply in February. Concerns about current
business conditions and the job market pushed the Present Situation
Index down to its lowest level in 27 years (Feb. 1983, 17.5).
Consumers' short-term outlook also took a turn for the worse, with
fewer consumers anticipating an improvement in business conditions and
the job market over the next six months. Consumers also remain
extremely pessimistic about their income prospects. This combination of
earnings and job anxieties is likely to continue to curb spending."
Consumers' assessment of current-day conditions soured in February.
Those claiming conditions are "good" decreased to 6.2 percent from 8.5
percent, while those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased
to 46.3 percent from 44.7 percent. Consumers' assessment of the labor
market was also more pessimistic. Those saying jobs are "hard to get"
rose to 47.7 percent from 46.5 percent, while those saying jobs are
"plentiful" decreased to 3.6 percent from 4.4 percent.
Consumers' short-term outlook, which had been improving, lost
considerable ground in February. The percentage of consumers
anticipating an improvement in business conditions over the next six
months decreased to 16.7 percent from 20.7 percent, while those
anticipating conditions will worsen increased to 15.3 percent from 12.7
percent. Regarding the outlook for the labor market, the percentage of
consumers expecting fewer jobs increased to 24.6 percent from 18.9
percent. Those anticipating more jobs will become available in the
months ahead declined to 13.4 percent from 15.8 percent. The proportion
of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes declined to 9.5
percent from 11.0 percent.
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but just watch the Visible Hand of Uncle Sam come bid everything back up!
The market is limited to 9% maximum corrections. We already had our 9% pullback from the highs for 2010. You will possibly be allocated one more 9% pullback this calendar year, but only if we can ramp it 30+% off the lows first. Otherwise, wait until calendar year 2011 for your next 9% pullback. Thank You very much. Love, Ben.
feb 1983 was about 6 months past the dead lows of the bear market, that kicked off the 18 year bull market to 2000.
sorry bears bashers and doomsayers, had to point that out.
As GS flies up 2% before the numbers come out.
Is that the revised number? Oh thats next week.
Short on the S&P emini, and its been a while since I hit my target that fast 9:00 a.m. CT
That's gonna help today's auction...watch for a big jump in indirect bids.
Gestalt says that shorting US FINS 3 days before big treasury auctions, then cover on the auction date is a golden goose that keeps on laying. Anyone want to post a correlation chart going back 12 months?
P.S., please,make sure to include today!
When will the market figure out that inventories are going up not because of demand?
It's amazing in this day and age what $23,000,000,000,000 in bailouts, backstops and stumulus won't buy.
Anyone with a pulse over 20, can realize that consumer confidence is down. But if you look at the other numbers productivity is up.... Hahhaha you got to be kidding me. I know when I see all the mess I get motivated alot.
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
up as a function of reduced labor
Listening to CNN International right now in Tokyo - and all that I would know from their super informative broadcast is that
1) Home prices increased for a 7th month in a row (with a very quick and glancing reference to seasonal adjustment) and
2) Headline: "Consumers send mixed signals". Mixed??? WTF?
Just thought I'd contribute something merry for a change.
Wait, I thought it was CNBC's job to spread the cheer...
Let's see if I remember this correctly. When flushed, the toilet bowl swirls counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere.
Either way, it's all going to hell.
+1000, CD.
What happens when she clogs?
i gotta admit that I was a bit surprised by the 46 print....
I wasn't DH. I've been in the Northwest and Midwest for the last several weeks and it is dire out there. People are absolutely befuddled at how bad business is--across the board--and they are depressed.
bout time you showed up! truthfully I was a little worried....very glad to see you back Howard!!!
thanks for the update on n'west, midwest.
Upstate NY sucks but you already know that!!
Howard,
Based upon some of your prior posts, it seems you're struggling with medical issues. I hope all is well. Your absence is always noted and sorely missed
Many people from my perspective on the West Coast, in Silicon Valley, to compensate for wage stagnation and/or lower salaries and/or inflation are visibly cutting back on going out especially to movies, eating out, vacations, and charity giving.
It also appears to be getting harder for many unemployed acquaintances-- ranging from teachers to engineers to management--to find work. I’ve given some part-time work to a mechanical engineer whose hours have been cut to the point he can no longer provide for his family of four; I gave another unemployed engineer two months’ rent-free living in my house--he's now elsewhere still looking for a job. And the consultant work for an engineer I sometimes partner with is down to zero.
By the way, Lawrence Summers, Obama’s economic advisor, acknowledged in January that, in the United States, one in five men aged 25 to 54 is jobless
I will add to this conversation the fact that thousands of small businesses are barely hanging on, ready to close at a moments notice.
But hey, the Governments want us all to keep thinking happy thoughts while digging our heads deeper into the sand, right?
It's interesting how many people have taken up smoking again...
It's like a stealth depression in Silicon Valley.
The Present Situation Index?
How do you measure a clear and present danger?
"Consumers' assessment of current-day conditions soured in February." And when people across the country realize that they've been had, what then?
Lowest point since 1983?!? And 1983 was the bottom of the recession?
Obviously Bullish!
Buy Buy BUY!
Sarcasm off/
This time is different, taxes cut then, taxes going up now, and yada yada yada about the overhang of debt.
3.6% think "jobs are plentiful". Really, who are those 3.6% and why are they allowed to walk around the streets being so delusional?
Just a smart-ass guess, but I suppose they're the GS people who don't have to walk.
Do you actually think that a sample of 5000 Americans would actually yield 5000 informed, intelligent, IQ over 100 Americans? Seriously.
3.6% think "jobs are plentiful". Really, who are those 3.6%...
Bagholders from spx 1500+
Washington D.C. area residents.
Okay I know a guy like this. He is constantly getting job offers, but he is a hotshot in his field. I know way more people who are unemployed. Of my good friends I would say about 50% are unemployed, so we know it's brutal out there. Just this guy would answer like that because he is completely unconcerned.
Actually most of them work for Google...
plus a few farmers in Mendocino County...
It's about damn time that the truth comes forth in torrents.
The consumer confidence number is meaningless arbitrary bullshit.
I can't believe I'm reading that, I'm in SHOCK. hahahaha
Not to the knuckleheads on television. It's the greatest, most reliable indicator there is in their minds, when it's up of course. When it's down, it's "meaningless arbitrary bullshit."
And exactly the opposite here on zerohedge. A couple of weeks ago there was a post here pointing out the "record divergence" between ABC consumer confort index and this measure here, which was therefore dismissed as not worth looking at.
The divergence may still hold up. Just imagine how bad the next ABC consumer comfort numbers are going to be. Eeeek!
No doubt the reason why the Conference Board had to fess up.
+1
So yet again consumer confidence trails the short term performance of the stock market (big fall in January translates into falling confidence). Seems like sheeple still look at the stock market guage in deciding where the economy is going ?
I stand firmly in the camp that postulates that QE was in reality only a short-term effort aimed at manipulating public perception.
If one reviews basic Keynesian doctrine, it is important for the purveyors of aggregate demand to simulate the effects of individual behavior (ie greed) in order to spike money velocity. Absent the collective mania surrounding mass leveraging, people tend to stand around and wait for the other shoe to drop, which is exactly what is happening.
Hence the need for green shoots, a massive coordinated state run propaganda campaign, engineered stock market manipulations, and forced interest rate ceilings (QE) in both government & agency debt.
But, unlike what many seem to believe, QE could never really achieve true debt monetization, simply because the $USD is subject to a hard oil peg. Since QE has failed in its designed task of manipulating consumer confidence, it will eventually be discarded.
At some point in time, we are going to have to face the music ie the deflationary tsunami. I think the Dems understand this and are bailing from Nov so that the Reps get to deal with the fall-out.
Just think in 45 min it will not matter. There will be a guy on tv screaming BUY BUY BUY!
Another "dip" its not so bad,
just a "blip" you'll hardly feel,
a soft "bump" the emperors clad,
a slight "pop" replace the wheel.
Yes, it's not a Panic, just a mild Depression...
Looking at the bright side, wasn't 1983 the moment when things started picking up?
This proves that there will be no "inventory restock" lead recovery time soon. Folks are not consuming.
I wonder what an overlay of ABC comfort and Conf board looks like. As said before, I think the ABC consumer comfort index was right all along.
And
Underwater Mortgages Hit 11.3 Million
http://247wallst.com/2010/02/23/underwater-mortgages-hit-11-3-million/
We're definitely on the upswing...... gurgle gurgle gurgle
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