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Consumer Confidence Plunges to 66 From 70.6, Huge Miss To Consensus Expectation Of 71

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Market volatile (on low volume of course, the norm) after consumers no longer confident that stock market bubble will be sufficient to offset the lack of jobs. U Michgian reported consumer confidence dropped to 66 from 70.6 prior and 5 points lower than expectations of 71. 

 

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Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:09 | 129657 Oso
Oso's picture

and yet we are phenomenally and stupidly UP!!  must mean QE 2.0 and Stimulus 7.8 coming right down the barrel.

 

or - the gunners at GSquid and JPMorons want you to believe this is a GOOD thing.  After all, equity markets always know best.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:10 | 129660 Ragnar Danneskjöld
Ragnar Danneskjöld's picture

of course: the market dips but then proceeds to spring right back

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:10 | 129661 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Will this chart lead in the backwards N shaped non-recovery?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:11 | 129662 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

F shaped recovery

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:54 | 129724 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Using Mandarin I can create a recovery that looks like Chinese tanks enforcing real estate liens on US soil.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:23 | 129782 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

How about this "upside down W shape" on the Russell 2000 small:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p45871284916

That, plus failure at the 50DMA on the last rally...couldn't be any more perfect.  But, does anyone care about small anymore?

TBTF or bust.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:13 | 129664 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Wow.......guess the recoverymeisters forgot all about what the consumer thinks. This is what happens when CNBS ratings cave.

We should break the low of a year ago when the CRE mess meets the real world by Q2 '10.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:14 | 129665 rigger mortice
rigger mortice's picture

turd shaped,shurely?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:16 | 129667 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

If it wasnt for the ramp up in the markets. Consumer Confidence would be below 60 right now, maybe in the mid 50s. I guess we need to ramp up the 'DOW' to 12000 to get it above 70 again

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:17 | 129671 perpetual-runner-up
perpetual-runner-up's picture

I know there are pros here....in light of info like this, and its implications on holiday spending, what in the world is holding amazon up at 130???

can anyone do an analysis of the allegations related to pushing vedor payments to fluff cash flow numbers?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:41 | 129704 Miyagi_san
Miyagi_san's picture

Invest in a pair of glasses and read the fine print it says, not responsible for omissions and flagrant lies. Future earnings are priced in, with all those bankster bonuses and a unwillingness to show their face in public... amazon is a gem.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 14:10 | 129918 Coming Down in ...
Coming Down in Powdery Sparks's picture

AMZN is proving invincible because I refuse to cover my shorts.  I'll let you know when I'm about to finally cave in so you can get short the inevitable plunge 3 days later.  It's almost comical on the days spooz are down 13 bucks and there is a sea of red on my screen...and a lone green number up 2%.  I think it's written into the Constitution somewhere what AMZN goes up every day.

I have still yet to see a Kindle in the wild.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:19 | 129672 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

gentlemen, to the fire hoses!  SQUIRT DAMN YOU!  SQUIRT HARDER!

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:28 | 129682 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

The expanding trade deficit should mean the Q3 GDP numbers will have to be revised downwards.

Sales tax figures are flat so this isn't the indicator of a consumer spending revival as these confidence numbers confirm, but a consequence of the weakened dollar and America's dependence on foreign oil and foreign products in general since the manufacturing base was hollowed out to allow CEO to claim rising profits and bigger bonuses.

This is what happens to an economy that outsources everything it needs.  Like the Spanish Empire who laughed that "the whole world toils for Spain" and then fell into centuries of backwardness when they could no longer print money, oops, I meant steal gold from South America.

 

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:29 | 129684 Paul S.
Paul S.'s picture

Fuck you.  Anything greater than zero is a green shoot.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:38 | 129700 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Yeah, they're pretty much going to need to come up with a whole new ad campaign for the fake recovery since the growing season has come and gone.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:36 | 129697 SpartanTnT
SpartanTnT's picture

toilet bowl shaped recovery

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:37 | 129699 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

I'm thinking the coming black Friday shopping day Ben will drive down Wall St. in Gotham city in a clown face throwing money out of the back of a limo to the sound of Prince tunes playing.

If that doesn't boost the confidence (game) index then they'll just make a law outlawing positive balances in bank accounts every year end.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:40 | 129703 Gilgamesh
Gilgamesh's picture

Market is actually outright rooting for bad news to extend ZIRP and dollar debasement into perpetuity.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:47 | 129713 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Yeap bad news is good news and good news is good news. The new normal! Actually good news may be seen as bad news if it means stimulus and easy money will be withdrawn.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:42 | 129707 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Just to add some warning signs perhaps. Crude below 76.50. Gold key reversal yesterday from 1122 high is Asia yesterday.
Copper looking like a false breakout above 300.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 14:57 | 129974 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Excuse me but what does "Gold key reversal yesterday from 1122 high is Asia yesterday." mean? The reason I ask is because gold is at $1116.60 at this moment so I can't get my head around your comment. TIA.

Sat, 11/14/2009 - 11:01 | 130603 greased up deaf guy
greased up deaf guy's picture

it should read: "Gold key reversal yesterday from 1122 high in Asia yesterday."  he's basically suggesting gold, oil, et al, may have hit a near-term high, reversed course and could head lower from here.  hope this helps.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 11:45 | 129710 Bearish Spirits
Bearish Spirits's picture

Well, don't we understand that consumer confidence was only down because the market "dumped" into the end of October?  We're seeing the blowback from that in the UMich survey.  This just proves the market needs to ramp higher to drive up confidence, right?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:02 | 129740 Racer
Racer's picture

and of course, to be expected the market soars on unexpected drop in consumer confidence

 

I give up being a bear... they are going to spike this up on a Santa rally rubbish

A few years ago this would have tanked the dow at least 200

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:06 | 129752 Handle with care
Handle with care's picture

And REITS are up strongly again.

 

Because of course plunging consumer confidence is good for retail space rentals.  And an increasing trade deficit is proof that domestic industry is firing on all cylinders taking advantage of the lowered currency to produce an export boom, and office space is going to be in short supply as all this business is about to stop firing and begin rehiring any moment now.

 

At least in bizzaro world anyway

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:02 | 129743 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Looks like an upgrade in JC Penney's sales outlook has caused the USD to drop 0.15.

What a weird wild and wacky market this truly is.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:04 | 129747 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

The manipulation is now getting so bare faced it defies belief.

The Dow came off nearly 50 points SIX MINUTES before the consumer confidence figures were released. As soon as they were released (worse than expected) the market went up like a rocket, following through on the EIA Natural Gas Inventories 90 points.

DavidC

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:07 | 129755 anynonmous
anynonmous's picture

Just now on Bloomberg TV

 

Rick Dreiling of Dollar General on his IPO

Bloomberg: do you have concerns with the consumer confidence number coming in below expectations

Dreiling: "ya we're really excited about that"

 

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:17 | 129768 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

The really amazing thing is that DG can come to market with such a high rating in this economic environment.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:39 | 129802 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

I got the impression that the deficit and consumer confidence numbers don't matter much, but that their effect on the dollar does it all. The dollar weakened, and this allows stocks to move higher. I'm wondering if it is really this simple?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:42 | 129806 dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

I got the impression that the deficit and consumer confidence numbers don't matter much, but that their effect on the dollar does it all. The dollar weakened, and this allows stocks to move higher. I'm wondering if it is really this simple? I see no other explanations for the market corrections being erased by these irrational upsurges in stocks. Besides optimism?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:56 | 129813 Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

Coal futures rallied on the news.  Speculators want to get in front of what will be arguably the biggest Christmas gift fad of the past 70 years.

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 12:58 | 129817 Oso
Oso's picture

Fed's Evans says difficult for central banks to identify bubbles; 'unwise' for Fed to fight asset price bubbles - DJ

 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 13:13 | 129838 Racer
Racer's picture

ROFL talk about stating the obvious......

 

not difficult if you know how and where to look and can be bothered

 

unwise for them to fight them?  Hmm isn't it also extremely unwise of them to cause them in the first place?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 13:32 | 129853 Racer
Racer's picture

What's the matter with these silly consumers, can't they see the stock market is soaring?

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 13:57 | 129892 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Government Sachs raping and pillaging and laughing all the way hahahahaha

the banksters must be removed from the nation's cockpit

and thrown out the bomb bay doors

into a volcano's molten lava

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 14:09 | 129914 Racer
Racer's picture

ROFL just reading a page that said consumer confidence fell in november and a headline appeared ..

US stocks add to advance, consumer shares lead

Just goes to show how real this market is.....

Fri, 11/13/2009 - 18:50 | 130236 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Think about it...

With our current system of interactive communication, it is possible to distribute a message and its responses and interrogatives, within a matter of hours...to the vast majority of US citizens.

.... then why is the US citizenry apparently so disconnected with what is happening on the main stage? The smoke has cleared, the mirrors are clearly reflecting this never ending scene.

Who really is being played?

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