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Consumer Confidence Survey Drops, Misses Expectations
Big surprise in the Conf Board consumer confidence index, which posted a September reading of 53, down from 54.5 in August, and an expected reading by "economists" of 57. The market, which trades solely on macro headlines these days, takes a brief dive. Expect this not to last as window dressing time promptly regains a foothold, and bad news continues to be good news. From the Conference Board:
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved in
August, dipped in September. The Index now stands at 53.1 (1985=100),
down from 54.5 in August. The Present Situation Index decreased to 22.7
from 25.4. The Expectations Index declined to 73.3 from 73.8 last month.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research
Center: "Consumer Confidence, which had improved in August, retreated
slightly in September. The Present Situation Index decreased, as
consumers viewed both current business conditions and the labor market
less favorably than last month. While not as pessimistic as earlier
this year, consumers remain quite apprehensive about the short-term
outlook and their incomes. With the holiday season quickly approaching,
this is not very encouraging news."
Consumers' assessment of current conditions was less favorable in
September. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to
46.3 percent from 44.6 percent, while those claiming conditions are
"good" increased to 8.7 percent from 8.5 percent. Consumers' appraisal
of the job market was also less favorable. Those claiming jobs are
"hard to get" increased to 47.0 percent from 44.3 percent, while those
claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 3.4 percent from 4.3 percent.
Consumers' short-term outlook was also slightly more pessimistic.
Those anticipating an improvement in business conditions over the next
six months decreased to 21.3 percent from 22.2 percent, while those
expecting conditions to worsen decreased to 15.0 percent from 15.2
percent.
Most importantly, the job outlook is looking about as dreary as ever:
The labor market outlook was virtually unchanged. Those expecting more
jobs in the months ahead edged down to 17.9 percent from 18.0 percent,
while those expecting fewer jobs remained the same at 23.1 percent. The
proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes
increased slightly to 11.2 percent from 10.8 percent.
Curiously, equities today have dislocated from the tick-for-tick currency driver over the past week as the strenghtening dollar is no longer relevant at all, at least in the stock market.
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The new trade is dollar strength and poor economic data = buys stocks.
It seems that the real equation is as follows.
anything you care to look at = buy stocks
The new normal I believe.
We are being prepped for a "correction".
Consumer: "Where did my cash for clunkers go?"
Producer: "Well, it's still there... but we moved from cars to electric kitchen appliances."
Consumer: "Oh. Well, I already have a new toaster. Got it from my TARP-funded bank."
I bought a toaster the other day, and they gave me a complimentary bank.
Fully marked-to-fantasy? Sorry to hear that; the FDIC said they couldn't give them away now... I guess they found a way.
lol....
Good one. You should write for J. Leno.
"I bought a toaster the other day, and they gave me a complimentary bank."
rofl
Anyone seen Mencia...great one for him to steal...you will hear this again!
+10 internets for Daedal
anon
+10 for the belly laugh. Thanks!
Thats the pure truth- Bad news is good news, hype any shred of news that can be remotely considered good to oblivion. POMO Capricorn 1 melt up blast offs rule the day, well, until they dont anymore.
There are a few articles (out there) that discuss that consumer confidence is pretty much a measure of the Dow. Since the PPT buys Dow futures, the consumer confidence is pretty much whatever the banksters want it to be.
Thats the pure truth- Bad news is good news, hype any shred of news that can be remotely considered good to oblivion. POMO Capricorn 1 melt up blast offs rule the day, well, until they dont anymore.
Today really proves how unconnected this market is with reality and companies. In the past this would have knocked the market and kept it down, now this fundamental news is used to squeeze any new shorts who are trading with brains and reality in mind
Beer/Alcohol Sector is doing great! Green Shots?
the stimilus has gone into a lot of road construction.
guess what the construction workers drink after work.
PBR sales up ~20% this year, if I recall correctly. They do not market/advertise.
this market is a total sham, day after day.
a farce
day after day
a complete joke
the controlling entities have set up another crash
because that is how farce gets resolved
Let's hope the Fed gets it's charter revoked soon
Being subject to the vagaries of an unsound system, makes one more fully understand the ancient wisdom in currencies with hard backing. It restrains mischief and underpins the natural laws of economics.
Without hard money, value is not determined by the markets or supply/demand, but by the whims of powerful men.
Free markets do not exist today because the supply of money is unlimited and its association with value creation has been lost. Currency foundations unmoored? Stocks, bonds, debt instruments of every kind are surrogates to state power and face value is what they wish it to be.
As time passes, this will become more and more apparent. But since the incentivizing prod for us commoners to make productive lives is being lost,
What do you suppose we will do?
Take the keys away from the stinking drunk bus driver. Or settle in for the inevitable collision with reality.
I think of it this way. Place a bowl of candy in front of a 4 year old with instructions not to touch it and then leave the room.
What do you think will happen and would you be surprised when it does?
Locks are there to keep the honest people honest. A reasonable deterrent. Thieves will always get what they want. It's the "honest" people I worry about.
CD, noone could have seen it coming...until they did...or didn't not see it coming...fking liars...and the second one is the optimistic one...barf...life is unfair and so are their paychecks...the fking liars...
AP Report of case shiller is a perfect example of UP IS DOWN
well at least the bond mkt gets it, bonds moving higher-the equity mkt does whatever it wants......meaning go higher. My fear that if the mkt stays at these levels after a poor Consumer confidence number, we will explode higher this afternoon.
Bond vigilantes cannot fight the unlimited supply of money available to Bernanke. Their ability to influence policy is gone now; washed away in money creation without constraint.
When politically unconnected money interests discover (as they are now) that they cannot invest in global capital markets with any rational expectations founded on fact, and when they discover sovereign debt issuance to be independent completely of their input (or lack thereof), they must conclude that all the world's promissory notes are tainted by central bank mischief.
They need no further material goods, trust not the traditional outlets for investing, and view all global currencies with concern as none have shown adequate discipline.
Where must the rational surplus holding individuals go to maintain wealth? Obviously, PMs. Herding by default
Dollar still on a small rally, and gold knocked. SPY gunner showing who is boss again
The fraud in these markets in staggering. I'm ashamed to live in America at this point.
Wait a minute? Unemployed people aren't confident?
Please, let's just ignore the bad data and as always buy, buy, buy ! Poor banksters have nothing else to do anyway. Let's find some reason to rally: Oh, oil is rising, that's one !
Walgreen Profit Tops Estimates as Drug Sales Jump 9%
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aotOY2OcupDI
It's a good time to be long on Alprazolam manufacturers, drug retailers and distillers
It appears someone is saving the oil market-which would normally tank on consumer confidence data like this-and also the dollar is up too. Are they heatmapping oil futures now?
Everyone is doing a little stand-up today. Enjoying it while I can. I can always cry tomorrow.
The scary thing is how rapidly the market dipped on the bad/good news. When real bad news hits, look out below.
Iran doing a great job helping Goldman Sachs prop their oil holdings. I mean, really, why does the middle east chirp in when oil sags under 70 bucks a barrel(ARAMCO's favorite number)
You ask a good question. Reminds me of the old (male centeric) joke.
"Why does a dog lick his balls?"
"Because he can."
the real answer is "cause he likes it"
From the WSJ: Since then, however, much of those declines have been pared as some the concern has given way to hope the always market-moving economic data on jobs won't be as dire as feared.