Consumer Credit Falls At Double Expected Rate, $70 Billion Decline YoY

Tyler Durden's picture

Consumer credit (revolving and non-revolving) dropped at a 4.9% annualized rate in June, double the expected pace, indicating consumers continue retrenching and saving, especially after May was expected to be an inflection month, declining by "just" -2.6%.Total outstanding consumer credit in June was $2,485 billion, $70 billion less than the $2,556 billion in June of 2008.

Bloomberg, in discussing this fact somehow managed to avoid the phrase "recession eases" for the first time in several thousand articles had this to say:

A jobless rate near the highest in 26 years, stagnant
wages and falling home values mean consumer spending, about 70
percent of the economy, will take time to recover even as the
recession eases. Incomes fell the most in four years in June as
one-time transfer payments from the Obama administration’s
stimulus plan dried up, and unemployment is forecast to exceed
10 percent next year before retreating.

Oh wait, did I say they avoided saying "recession eases" - stupid me. And this:

Economists had forecast consumer credit would drop $5
billion in June, according to the median of 33 estimates in a
Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of
$11.9 billion to $1 billion. The Fed initially reported that
consumer credit decreased by $3.2 billion in May.

One assumes the green shoot in this one is that the $10.7 billion decline was better than the one economist who was at the bottom of the range.

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Hondo's picture

What is that...about 5% of nominal GDP?

 

Bloomberg is getting pretty pathetic at financial reporting.  They just can’t report the number without some sort of editioral.

 

 

Anonymous's picture

I hate to say it but their tv has become cnbcidified.

And the headlines on their website are written 18 yr old cheerleaders.

Cheeky Bastard's picture

0.5 % GDP=14 trillion ------->  70 000 000 000/14 000 000 000 000 = 0.5%

assumptionblindness's picture

You're right. All you have to do is read the ticker at the bottom of the screen.  It is evident that every headline is followed by the "Bloomberg Interpretation."  This has been going on for a LONG time...tune in and see for yourself.

Anonymous's picture

Bloomie is the new CNBS. Changing of the guard, people.

Icarus's picture

The raw data is on the Fed's site if you don't like editorial.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Choose.aspx?rel=G.19

TumblingDice's picture

Didn't the new USA CEO say that credit is the lifeblood of the economy? Does this mean we're bleeding?

Cheeky Bastard's picture

yes, from a jugular and every other major artery in your body, but they decided that a pinky band-aid called the stock market can fix you ...

Anonymous's picture

Jugulars are veins. Carotids are arteries near the jugulars.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gray558.png

Anonymous's picture

less bad is the new good

recession is over

L. Kudlow

Fish Gone Bad's picture

Less bad is the new doing great.

FischerBlack's picture

Not the end of Western Civilization as we know it is the new teh awesome pwnage.

Anonymous's picture

Anybody see a difference in the interview style of Hermann (red-headed hyper dude) at Bloomberg today as opposed to "new bull-market" CNBC yesterday?

Anonymous's picture

Are there any measures of consumer credit demand?

Commissionable's picture

TD, How come nobody is talking about the fact that as jobs are lost there are less and less jobs to FLIPPIN lose, therefor there pure (not really) numbers are not an accurate indication of what is taking place in the mktplace? Even if we take these fluffed numbers and use percentages lost vs percentages existing, the story told will be MUCH scarier. PLEASE REPLY TD.

D.O.D.'s picture

I have been making this argument for a couple of months now, the deceleration of the collapse is not due to an acceleration in the other direction, it's US hitting the wall...of course somehow that translates to more efficient business, which translates to higher top end down the road, which translates to green shoots...But it seems the entire market expects US to return to mid '07 when everyone borrowed without a care in the world. But who needs everyone when you got the Fed, I guess is the rationale...

kote's picture

Given that over 90% of job seekers are currently employed (using BLS numbers), switching from a total possible jobs basis to a total jobs remaining basis will change any given statistic by a maximum of 10%.  It makes a difference, but a maximum 10% (%, not pt) fudge under different accounting doesn't make it "MUCH scarier" in my opinion.

We would still be talking about 9.4% unemployment.  We would just talk about employment decreasing by another, say, 1.1% (jobs remaining basis) vs 1% (total jobs basis) by the end of this thing.

Anonymous's picture

Now we know why revenue numbers were lighter than expected in so many consumer oriented industries.

But I am pretty sure June numbers are imbedded in stock prices already. It being August and all...

max2205's picture

More from the cuckoos nest:

 

Ethics Panel Clears Dodd in Countrywide Refinancing (Update2)


 

By Jonathan D. Salant

Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Senate Ethics Committee said Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd of Connecticut and fellow Democrat Kent Conrad of North Dakota didn’t violate ethics rules in refinancing their home mortgages with Countrywide Financial Corp.

The panel said today it found “no substantial credible evidence” that the mortgages violated Senate ethics rules.

Even so, the committee, which includes equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, said both senators should have “exercised more vigilance” to “avoid the appearance” of preferential treatment.

Dodd, who faces re-election next year and whose committee oversees the mortgage industry, claimed vindication.

“There was no ‘sweetheart’ or special deal; the allegations are and have always been false,” Dodd said in a statement. “I hope that today’s dismissal will go a long way towards restoring the bond of trust and confidence that I’ve worked long and hard to build with the people of our state.”

Conrad called findings “welcome news” in a statement. “While I should have shown more vigilance in the appearance of these transactions, the committee has concluded I did nothing unethical, and that is the truth,” he said.

The complaint against the senators was brought by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a watchdog group. CREW executive director Melanie Sloan said Dodd and Conrad were cleared of wrongdoing “despite the fact that the senators participated in a program the committee found ‘offered quicker, more efficient loan processing and some discounts.’”

‘Friends’ of Mozilo

Both senators were put into Countrywide’s VIP program and were designated by the company as “friends” of former chief executive officer Angelo Mozilo, who founded the company and served as its head until last year. The committee found that neither Dodd nor Conrad received special treatment, that their mortgages were in line with offers from competing companies, and that they didn’t obtain any benefits by virtue of their elected offices.

Dodd, 65, said he assumed the VIP program was simply a courtesy for customers. Conrad, the Senate Budget Committee chairman, also denied receiving favorable treatment.

Dodd, first elected to his seat in 1980, is the only Democratic senator currently in danger of losing re-election next year, political analysts say. Three Washington-based organizations that rate congressional races -- Congressional Quarterly, the Rothenberg Political Report and the Cook Political Report -- say the race is a tossup.

Through June 30, Dodd had $1.8 million in his campaign bank account, more than double that reported by his leading Republican challenger, former Representative Rob Simmons.

Conrad, 61, faces re-election in 2012. He first won his Senate seat in 1986.

FischerBlack's picture

Next Headline:

Serial Killer Says Homicidal Maniac Did Nothing Wrong

Anonymous's picture

“I hope that today’s dismissal will go a long way towards restoring the bond of trust and confidence that I’ve worked long and hard to build with the people of our state.”

No it didn't Senator Go Fuck Yourself
Hopefully the citizens of Connecticut recognize what an absolute disgrace you've been, and boot your sorry ass out on the street in 010

Missing_Link's picture

^^ This comment is full of win.

Rusty_Shackleford's picture

Just the fact that he would try and pull the "Oh, I had no idea it was because I was a Congressman"-bullshit tells you what this douchebag is all about.

Why did not a single journalist ask, "Are you freaking kidding me?  No really, do you really expect people to actually believe that?  Do you think every single one of your constituents is a complete idiot?"

 

He and the rest of the bureaucrat class needs to ride the rail.

Anonymous's picture

I read elsewhere that they appeared to held up the release of this report until just before the closing bell - later than usual. Was that the case?

capitalisa's picture

No, it's always this time.

jedwards's picture

If consumer credit increases, it means that means it's a debt bubble waiting to explode.

 

Or is it if consumer credit decreases, it means the economy is fucked because no one is buying stuff anymore.

 

That being said the 1982 recovery in the stock market was predicated by an increase in consumer credit in March, making people believe that they would spend money which would lead us out of the recession.  While this worked back in the 80s when we had a lot less debt, it won't work now because we're spending beyond our means.  It's funny how the Fed has adopted this exact same mentality, and they're running up into exactly the same problem, ie. debt.  Increasing spending with little debt is good, increasing spending with a lot of debt is bad.  Both the American consumer and the American government are afflicted with the same debt disease, and they are both fucked in the same way.

capitalisa's picture

The kick the can down the road mentality ends when there's no more road.  Hey, there's no more road, but they won't stop until they are stuck in the weeds or drive off the cliff.

Dixie Normous's picture

Finally Americans are saving.  Right?  Isn't that what this means?

And can anyone explain the Transports.

At least one of the components must be going out of business soon.

Cheeky Bastard's picture

no they are not saving, they are just using less credit and are repaying the debts they accumulated over the past 10 yrs ... BEA would like you to think that they actually put the money in the bank and save it which is not true, they cut spending and are de-leveraging themselves ....

Anonymous's picture

I know I am.
Everyone I know is cutting back on virtually every day to day expense. Why support all things government or made in China? My fellow Americans are either unemployed or broke or not paying their mortgage.

Anonymous's picture

Same here. I just closed a Chevron gas card that I had for over 10 years. They jacked my rate to 31% because I supposedly was late on three payments in the last eight months... pure BS, never happened. I called them to resolve the situation so they tried to sell me on "upgrading" to a Chevron VISA at a lower rate... I said fark you, cancelled it. Guess which gas station chain I wont be going to anymore? :)

My old-style big box TV died, so I had a fleeting moment of temptation, as in, "I'd really like to get a big flatscreen HD TV!", but said no. Don't want to spend any money on crap right now. Saving is the name of the game these days.

Anonymous's picture

If you had taken teh friggin Chevron VISA you could be watching Larry Kudlow in hi-def right now!!!!!!!!!!

What kind of American are you anyway?

Anonymous's picture

No shit. This dude needs to move to North Korea. They have nationalized health care there I heard.

Anonymous's picture

No. What you see is defaulted debts by consumers was counted as savings. The higher the writeoff by creditors, the more the savings by consumers.

FischerBlack's picture

We live in a perverse alternate reality where people getting out of debt, paying off their credit cards and car loans with whatever money they can scrape together is a source of concern that it might 'delay the recovery'.

Fuck this bullshit. I'm moving to Afghanistan.

Anonymous's picture

Consumer credit is not falling because because of a new found sense of thrift- credit cards are maxed out and there are no more balance transfer offers in the mail. The only people who are getting credit now are the ones who typically do not live on credit. Consumer will be baack when the banks opens up the credit spigot.

Assetman's picture

Our bank is retrenching... and will continue to retrench due to too much CRE exposure.

deadhead's picture

what kind of bank, i.e. community, regional, TBTF?  perhaps share geo location? thanks.

Assetman's picture

Community bank.  Colorado.

And there are competitor institutions in A LOT worse shape.

The OCC has been very active here, if you catch my drift.

Anonymous's picture

Different story here in Northern New England.

Many community banks here operate in such archaic ways that they didn't even know how to participate in highly leveraged, 'toxic' programs. I've seen detailed reports on 12 institutions in MA, ME and NH who have very limited CRE exposure and typically are able to manage simple workouts or mods for RES loans before they impact the bottom line.

Keep in mind that these organizations are very small (i.e. 1-20 branches).

Another effect over the past 10-12 months has been the influx of cash into the smaller community banks. As the news became more an more obvious to the general populus that the big banks weren't so solvent, money began flowing into the small banks in a big way. Many here are so flush with cash that large depositors looking for even slightly premium rates on standard bank products are turned away because a profitable spread just isn't there. Kind of a catch-22

stedanrac's picture

  How are these consumer credit numbers affected by consumer defaults in either housing or credit cards? 

 

 Thx

Anonymous's picture

YAYYY!! And the market ROARS! Green Shewtz! ZOMG!

/what the FUCK

Anonymous's picture

The White House strategy of turning supporters into snitches when they see "fishy" information about the health care debate may run afoul of the law, legal experts say.

"The White House is in bit of a conundrum because of this privacy statute that prohibits the White House from collecting data and storing it on people who disagree with it," Judge Andrew Napolitano, a FOX News analyst, said Friday.

"There's also a statute that requires the White House to retain all communications that it receives. It can't try to rewrite history by pretending it didn't receive anything," he said.

"If the White House deletes anything, it violates one statute. If the White House collects data on the free speech, it violates another statute."
http://tinyurl.com/lxomwq

Of course our rulers up in DC are going to be exempt from the laws that apply to the peasant's.

casey's picture

Where is Marla?  I want more music please.  The perfect tonic for this madness.

 

#29650 writes about the senate ethics committee:  an oxymoron classic.

Sancho Ponzi's picture

This just in from Reuters:

'Freddie Mac reports that it managed an actual net income gain in second quarter of $768 billion - a big turnaround from the $9.9 billion loss in the prior quarter. That means Treasury is off the hook, at least in this quarter, in terms of giving Freddie more money through its $200 bln equity line.'

$768  billion HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

http://blogs.reuters.com/commentaries/2009/08/07/freddie-in-the-black-treasury-off-the-hook/

Billions - The New Millions

Trillions - The New Billions

Quadrillions - The New Trillions

Sancho Ponzi's picture

From freddiemac.com

'The second quarter 2009 results were primarily driven by:

    • Net interest income of $4.3 billion;
    • Gains on the company's derivative portfolio and guarantee asset of $4.2 billion, mainly related to net mark-to-market gains due to increases in long-term interest rates;
    • Net impairment of available-for-sale securities recognized in earnings of $2.2 billion, also reflecting the adoption of FSP FAS 115-2 and FAS 124-2; and
    • Provision for credit losses of $5.2 billion.
  • Mark-to-market GAINS??? What are they smoking?

    max2205's picture

    Cooking the books, this is so totally BS.  AIG makes a Billion then wants to pay 1B to retain key staf...OMG....wow....wow

    Anonymous's picture

    Man, the numbers are so large that journalists are confused all the time. Billions? Sound like millions. So, simon property will raise 500 billion new fund. Trillions? Wow, three japanese-look-like-would-be-smugglers found to have trillions us bond in the Italy border.Quadrillions, that if I am not mistaken, is equal to one thousand trillion. It seems that I need to learn what comes after the quadrillions, which shall be equal to one thousand quadrillions. Anyone knows the word which means one thousand quadrillion? Terarillion!

    Anonymous's picture

    What do you guys think of the Markit NA AAA CMBX chart?

    It looks like a blow off top to me.

    http://debtsofanation.blogspot.com/2009/08/debts-of-spenders-improved-co...

    Anonymous's picture

    the CRE bomb - isn't that supposed to detonate soonish?