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Consumer Credit Plunges By Record $21.6 Billion As The Main Driver For GDP Growth Says "Enough"
A record plunge in consumer credit, and the American middle class has just given the new and improved Obama-endorsed "spend spend spend" recovery and confidence plan the middle finger.
$6.1 billion decline in revolving credit, and a $15.4 billion drop in non revolving credit, on a $4 billion expected decline! June's decline was revised downward to a $15.6 billion reduction in credit.
Someone please spin how a record consumer retrenching is in any way benficial to America's GDP.
Yet TradeBot and HAL9000 have largely priced in this $17 billion miss to consensus.
And here is what a consumerless recovery (another term to add to the growing -less list) looks like:
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If only our government can be as wise as the consumer.
No, the consumer spending is over and done, it's government's turn to pick up where the consumer left off... so we going to have the grand daddy-o bubble of all bubble, US government...
SPX to 5000 and then back to 200...
Well said, however the Govt thinks it can tax its way out of anything. Wrong. This time it is different
Consumer to Fed...sit and spin
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If you don't mind I'm going to use that on ES :-)
Please do :-)
If anyone had asked if I thought retailers would surge on very weak back-to-school sales I would say shennanigans. Yet that is exactly what happened. Who has the guts to say now that retail stocks would react poorly to a bad holiday season? Sure intuition, logic, common sense and firing synapses would lead one to that conclusion, but thats not the market we're in now.
Not Looking Good So Far for Back-to-School Sales: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/04/business/04shop.html?hp
http://www.ascii-art.org/
Have fun.....
ohhhhhh snap, fun will definitely be had...thanks a ton!
The daily chart of the SPX?
.
well said!
Perfection!
holiday sales should just be spectacular!
I suppose the merch is passing right by the retailers and going straight to the liquidators...or the dumpster.
Santa Obama will probably do a cash for presents stimulus, trade in your old Chinese junk and get new Chinese junk. The old Chinese junk will be recycled into lead batteries to make the program seem "green". All will be well.
In a strange way, these "end of the earth as we know it" screen shots are becoming common and even blase.
IMHO it actually allows some people to feel calm because it looks like disaster is here but the world hasn't ended and the government says things are getting better.
At least that's what some of my clients are telling me. Just goes to show, if you tell someone the sky is green enough times, they will begin to actually believe it.
Exactly, the ultimate goal of the financial media, wall st and the government is to project an image that even though times are difficult, they will eventually get better because smart men and women who understand the complexities of the problem are on the job, and if they aren't running around screaming "FIRE" then maybe it will get better soon.
So fry up another can of cat food America, help is on the way!
You've got cat food?!
LUCKY!
Has anybody noticed the strange shade of green the sky has taken on lately?
bwaaahaaa. post of the day!
folks in Madhatten may not know what that indicates, but living in Memphis I sure do.
We're getting a lot of your memphian refugees over here in Arkansas... and I don't blame them one bit. Memphis is a lost city.
...well I built me a raft and she's ready for float..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7JZfJ8q81A
Taking me back... thanks... the best song they ever performed imho...
you cant eat denial
Are you attacking denial bugs?
Germany? I'm so going to kick my geography teachers posterior. Egypt, he said Egypt.
Mule..Denial is river in Egypt..;o)
If the worker bees spontaneously and independently flee back to the countryside where at least they can subsist, what will happen to the drones?
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/
P.S. Here in the west the latest YoY sales tax receipts have nearly fallen 50%. Over LAST year.
Do we have to keep playing or can we call it off for rain?
They will starve to death
Chart II would be more informative in real terms.
Economy in trouble.
My WOPR algo keeps telling me that, "the best way to win is not to play."
is the same true for a nice game of Go or Chess?
Spin:
Consumers spending less on summer vacations whilst girding up for a record breaking holiday shopping spree. Clearly, american consumers are maturing.
American consumers are not maturing.....they're in shock....it's called Bunker Mentality.....
...and the mkt rallies like its 1998. unbuhlievable
Why don't the relatively larger declines of March '09 (-32.6) and April (-27.1) show up on the over-time charts? Also, where is the credit expansion from May '09 (+15.6)? Assuming the BB terminal graphs are correct, there may be a mistake in the Consumer Credit table above -- or is that not supposed to be the numeric representation of actual consumer credit change from Sept. '08 through July '09?
I know I should not be surprised, but it's almost funny to see the ramp job happen at 2:30 so soon after this news came out.
And by the way, it happens as the dollar is being driven down again.
How is this a record? The chart you posted shows the March drop in credit at -$32.6b and the April drop at -$27.1 billion.
Historical numbers were all revised. Will adjust table shortly.
Of course they were all revised. You don't think they're going to tell you how it is on the day of the data release, do you? Like NFP where numbers are revised down by tens of thousands the next month.
a "consumer retrenching" or a banks unwillingness to lend? me thinks, and not only me, that it's the latter.
sheople would be happy to have more money, borrowed money or not they don't give a f
Both.
Banks are UNWILLING to lend to credit-un-worthy and Credit-worthing are unwilling to borrow. Worse, credit-worthing are willing to de-load at any way they can since banks are charging rate exceeding 20% for credit-worthy.
Expect a crash Christmas this year and a torrent of bankruptcy filings early 2010.
Your right. Chase just offered me a credit line of $26,000
at 2.99% til 3/2011. I threw it away. I'll stay debt free.
Government rate of spending is off the chart, however. Instead of trying to persuade us to spend, they are just spending our money for us.
never reported mencion on CNBC
OHH COME ON, DEVELERAGING MEANS MORE MONEY ON THE SIDELINES, MARKETS GO UP :0)
A) SO WE HAVE NO DEMAND FOR CREDIT, PLEASE EXPLAIN HOW THE NET INTEREST MARGIN COMES INTO PICTURE FROM FOR BANK PROFITABILITY (RE-RUN STRESS TESTS)
B) CASH FOR CLUNKERS SHOULD HAVE ADDED MORE DEBT, SO GOD KNOWS HOW MUCH THE DECLINE WOULD HAVE BEEN W/O THE PROGRAM
C) RETAIL SALES STILL STINK
D) CONSUMER DEVELERAGING IS TRYING TO SAVE THE DOLLAR BY NOT EXPORTING DOLLARS TO CHINA, BUT TIMMY G. IS GIVING IT ALL AWAY TO WALL ST.
SIGH....
CAsh for clunkers were not in force during July.
You guys are missing the big picture.
This is a recovery-less recovery. The lack of any future economic growth is already priced in to the fraudulent, profitless, consumer-less, Jobless, and moneyless, recovery.
I like it! The Recovery-less Recovery: Optimism Driven By Hope.
To distort a good quote: no one ever went broke underestimating the short attention span of the financial industry.
Recovery-less recovery.
Nice.
I'm going to spread that as far and wide as I can manage.
correct. The only way to make money is to buy and sell the market
AMD was the pump of the day. Hilarious.
1
Robotrader, can we have a chart on ORH today please?
doesn't the fact that we have less credit outstanding today mean that we will have more savings for tommorrow...and more to spend on goods tommorow? so isn't this a good thing? and why wouldn't the stock market rally on this...the consumer is doing the right thing! Which in the long term will be good for the economy.
less debt does not equal more savings (only in econometric models of the Fed scumbags)
it means consumer spending is contracting rapidly - more rapidly now than before
there is no gdmf "recovery"
there is only a grossly manipulated stock market
the real deal is NOT that people are choosing to save instead of consume
the real deal is that PEOPLE HAVE LESS MONEY TO SPEND
so what is the catalyst for the reduction in debt? people paying it off right? they might not be saving more, but they will be paying less later. I agree there is no recovery yet, but I still don't see how less debt is such a bad thing. wouldn't it be a good thing if our economy could shift from a consumer driven one to something more productive?
what it means here and now is that consumers are reducing spending and doing so much more than "estimated". It does not mean that they are paying off debt, though that is theoretically possible.
Some of this may be only reduction in lines of credit.
BAC reduced my CC limit by 50% this year (that's fine, like I want 30% money?), I'm sure that shows up somewhere. Saw much coverage, even on ZH, on this.
Granted, it's obvious evidence of deflation in the real economy, but does it compare to the trillions being monetized?
+100 !
there is no gdmf "recovery"
WTF is supposed to recover?
People are growing their own foods and debate whether or not to hold chickens in their suburbs.
Consumers are cutting back on everything even more.
How exactly do the propagandists envision a recovery?
I see downsizing all around me and cut backs.
********
HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT
LOWER INCOMES
LESS CREDIT
= RECOVERY
WTF???
Forget to log in Phil Gramm?
On the very long term you are right. After all this debt is paid back ... maybe in 10 years.
maybe in 50 years.....
Giving the finger is protected speech.
Rigged. Organized Fucking Crime. May the cheerleaders eat shit in hell.
And the SPX is up for what reason? I really want to know.
the Fed is still printing money?
SPX was up on Friday, you see.
So Asian markets (Shanghai & HSI) were up on Monday because SPX was up on Friday.
Asian markets were up again on Tuesday because, well, they were up on Monday (momentum & a G20 multiple orgasm).
Therefore, lo and behold, SPX was up today.
That's quasi-serious, oddly enough.
Wonder why the market isn't plunging on this news?
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
I really hope someone hacks the bejezus out of your site and gives it a concoction of cyber STD's that you never recover from. Twit.
21.6B in a month?
BFD. the Fed is printing $25B a WEEK to buy agency MBS.
Ben's all in on another bubble, but there's nothing (nobody?) left to blow.
Heh. Once the debts are paid off, it's all Cash and boy have we got plans to save, spend and hoard.
This is our first year as all cash. We have bought about 12000 dollars worth of guns, machines, ammunition, foodstuffs and other goods as necessary this year over and beyond normal food, gas and utilities.
We cannot imagine a credit card bill of 12K with 40% interest.
Therefore we are free from enslavement, stimulating the economy our way and making sure that we have a little left over for when the Nation stops functioning.
2010 looks a hell of alot profitable, we expect the same 12 thousand to be all cash sitting in the so called bunker by the end of 2010. I think all things considered, the old way of living on credit is dead.
Long live cash.
You and thousands of Americans have experienced a market panic, a bursting bubble and have seen the naked truth. The Emperor has no clothes.
There is NO turning back to living on credit and being a slave to the bank.
Cash, gold and land are the values to hold.
The problem for THEM is that more and more people are waking up to the fact that they were screwed once and that government is in the process of screwing them yet again.
Screw me once, shame on me.
Try and screw me twice, fuck you.
But King Obama wants Hope Now. But since his coronation, his minions' performance has been lackluster. So he can live with a little less.
He believes in Hope Less Now or switch it around,
In America we are Now Hope Less. Said with conviction, that nice tan baritone, and meaningful pauses with just the right profile change as he looks from one teleprompter to another. Yes America, Yes We Can, Hope Less Now.
David Tice just now on Fox Business (interrupted by Pelosi and Reid) but before they cut him off he was clear as day that this market will test and break the March lows and a fiscal crisis is upon us.
"Most people have three legs on their financial stool: House, Paycheck and Equities - all three are headed lower."
Absolutely. This game is just being held together long enough to burn as many sucker-dupes as possible and to blame the inevitable crash on some 'external event'
It's really a matter of creating a bullshit historical narrative. Now everyone believes there is a recovery (even though there is no such thing!) . What a farce! Unemployment is at 16.8%. There never was any recovery. But the lamestream media have repeated it until they made it true. So now we have our 'recovery' and we can make it part of the 2009 lamestream historical narrative.
"Oh gee wiz we were having such a wonderful recovery until ______________ happened , and now everything is falling apart once again. Well at least our problems are the fault of this unfortunate event, rather than the combination of our malicious and inept policymakers. Let's continue to trust them to bring us through this crisis."
Yep.
Just one more tired example of; "don't believe what you see, believe what they tell you".
I am with you PM. It is all a load of crap and the powers that be are just rolling from one index of excuse to another hoping that we will behave like an abused child.
1) Swine Flu
2) Money market drawdown by the evil communist Chinese and other creditor countries. (or a series of failed auctions, and by that I mean failed excluding the Fed.)
3) "Computer error"
4) Major conflict/terrorists/pirates
5) A bank bankruptcy
6) all of the above
Dice, I'm going to go with #6 above for 200.
Demagoguery knows no bounds when it serves to insulate and perpetuate those in power....
Probably right.
And only a handful of people will realize that those events are the symptoms and not the disease.
6) Health care "reform" doesn't pass
7) Cap and tax doesn't pass
It is all just a liquidity-driven game. Remember the market "crashed" last year because Lehman failed.
Or did it? Lehman filed on Sept 15th. The S&P was at 1192. It rose to 1255 on 9/19. On 9/26 it was still above 1200.
Or maybe there was a liquidity event. that was blamed on Lehman.
Denninger has said several times it was the Fed because they yanked hard on the slosh.
actually, can't wait to see his post about today's consumer credit numbers and how green shoothiness these numbers are!
There was a good article on Bloomberg.com about the Lehman bust today. The Fed and banksters didn't even think about how Lehman's demise would affect commercial paper.
OOPS!
This paper was put out in July and has been referenced by some heavyweights already:
Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1440752
IRA has a good piece up, and talks about that paper:
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytics.com/pub/IRAMain.asp
"The current financial crisis is a system-wide bank run. What makes this bank run special is that it did not occur in the traditional-banking system, but instead took place in the "securitized-banking" system. A traditional-banking run is driven by the withdrawal of deposits, while a securitized-banking run is driven by the withdrawal of repurchase ("repo") agreements," the authors argue.
The simple explanation is that because Bear and Lehman were not part of the "bank" club, these firms failed. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) were saved only via extraordinary efforts by the Fed and conversion into ersatz banks. But the wave of selling and demands for cash and collateral that almost destroyed all of the non-bank dealers was a function of confidence, not capital. And the same wave of selling and collateral demands would have destroyed the largest commercial banks too were it not for the extraordinary actions by the Fed to essentially float the entire rancid corpus of private label securitization.
As Gorton & Metrick argue: "What happened is analogous to the banking panics of the 19th century in which depositors en masse went to their banks seeking to withdraw cash in exchange of demand and savings deposits. The banking system could not honor these demands because the cash had been lent out and the loans were illiquid, so instead they suspended convertibility and relied on clearinghouses to issue certificates as makeshift currency. Evidence of the insolvency of the banking system in these earlier episodes is the discount on these certificates. We argue that the current crisis is similar in that contagion led to "withdrawals" in the form of unprecedented high repo haircuts and even the cessation of repo lending on many forms of collateral."
that implies that the market crashed because of lehman, not because the RE Ponzi economy itself crashed....which it did. which is why lehman went under.
There's a lot of rhetoric out there that blames the LEH collapse on the Fed/Treasury refusal to rescue them, and that the market crash is therefore the fault of a failure of the feds to rescue a failing firm. And this line of reasoning is TOTAL BULLSHIT.
Lehman failed because it was overlevered in too many bad investments. Period. All the other banks should have failed as well.
The markets crashed because the ponzi credit bubble DIED, as it was certain to do.
"Liquidity Driven Markets" is a term I despise. Every single day of my professional trading career since 1995 has had as a feature "SO much cash on the sidelines!" and "there's just sooooo much money out there." It has never meant shit.
You may be right. My point was the narrow, self-serving focus of the participants, and the total lack of concern for the best interests of this country or its citizenry.
LEH failed because it didn't have enough friends left after refusing to participate in LTCM bailout. Most other banks should have failed too, especially GS...
well put Andy
And reiterated on Bloomberg this morning
PM
+1
that explanation fits like a glove
Trust = Mossberg 12 gauge Persuader, P229 Sigsauer 40mm, and 9mm Astra
Financial Security = 30% emerging market funds, 45% Gold, 15% Silver, and 10% cash
Don' t forget the other precious metal - Lead - as in Buck Shot.
You guys need to discover the Benelli M2.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jg5LcgRgRzE
Here it is in WTF mode.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGSN8fOHEX0&feature=related
oh whoa.... dude, never thought this way, but it actually makes perfect sense.......
ugh, this just added to my paranoia/anger problems.
""Oh gee wiz we were having such a wonderful recovery until ______________ happened , and now everything is falling apart once again. Well at least our problems are the fault of this unfortunate event, rather than the combination of our malicious and inept policymakers. Let's continue to trust them to bring us through this crisis."
PM....brilliant use of the language and oh so correct. Fortunately for the obama and fed complex, there are so many fill in the blank events.
Do you think a lihop or a mihop will happen ?
With unemployment at 16%+++, it will take years to "recover". How many jobs need to be created to get to 10%? 5%?
How long will it take to get to these lower unemployment numbers? Recovery, reschmuckovy. Even while things will be getting better, conditions will be horrible and getting worse for very many.
I agree with you 100%... and if no crisis naturally develops... they will develop one themselves..
"Yet TradeBot and HAL9000 have largely priced in this $17 billion miss to consensus."
You crack me up sometimes.
Tyler, that is well-written, insightful and accurate. Okay then. When does the stock market start going down?
"It's really not that much when you look at the big picture." I heard a gal I think CNBC on say that.
Let's not forget a little lesson I learned to do with credit cards. Buy something for 25% off by opening a store card at the register.
Return the following morning or a few hours later that day with the cash from the vault or bank and pay off the credit card in full before the store manager has a chance to submit everything up the line to corporate billing.
And flee with the wads of savings before same manager thinks I got away with it illegally somehow. I think I slashed and burned about 4 cards this way scorched earth and probably caused the stores to lose money.
The worst part is getting the store to understand that we want the credit account CLOSED the same day or next morning. They are not used to this experience.
I don't think anyone has mentioned it in this thread yet but I am shocked, shocked, shocked, that the June credit utilization numbers were revised downward....something like 10 billion reduction in June revised to 15 billion reduction...hell, that's only 50%.
consensus by analysts for July was for a reduction of 4 billion (per green shoots netwok article on their website)...instead we got a reduction to 21.4 billion.
wow....just wow.
DH - These are the reported numbers don't forget.
amen to that Layne....I have lost pretty much all faith in most things (and numbers) that come from the government or Fed.
my broker and I have this ongoing thing where we laugh like hell about the revisions because they are certainly consistent.....consistently more negative, lol!
We all know that you can't get "better-than-expected" without lowering expectations a month early and revising (worsening) actual numbers a month later.
I agree with this. This is a Rosenberg detonation event number. Similar to what happend to employment in January. This was unexpected and is going to resonate for months to come.
You just have to go to Costco to realize that shit is fucked up. Costco is now selling USDA Prime beef, which means that restuarants are drying up and blowing away.
the wsj had a big article about that approx. 4, 5, 6 weeks ago or so.
And how does a debt based economy function when debt is being shunned? Rhetorical question.
beats me
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
It would be interesting to know how much was paid off versus walked away from.
Our new czar system: “He has erected a multitude of new offices by a self assumed power, and sent hither swarms of officers to harass our people, and eat out their substance.” -- T. Jefferson (original version)
Somehow my cancelled bonus and lower real wage missed out on the historical narrative of The Great Green Shoot Recovery of 2009 under Wizards Timmah and Bennah That Done Saaaaaved Us All for a Quarter or Two
I blame...hmm...howzabout the Gucci Gulch financial dereg orgy under Reagan as perpetuated by Rubin, Summers and the 'Wall Street (Pinstripe) Democrats'?
Did you read this on the internet?
It must be some more of that disinformation going around.
The irony is,less spending and more saving makes it possible for the treasury to finance its debt easier. Thus keeping interest rates low and stocks higher(lol)
You just described a perpetual motion machine that does not exist.
Sadly, all things past the point of no return.
"Consumer credit fell $21.1 billion in July, a record drop, with downwardly revised numbers for June. The decline was likely driven by outsized charge-offs at commercial banks.
Thank you for your interest in Wells Fargo's Economic Commentary by Email." (Italics added by your correspondent).
Well, at least that explains that. No worries, nothing to see, just move along . . .
Credit down, so what. As long as money is being printed the market will go up in nominal terms. In real terms the market may be down a lot already. Would you rather own a company with real tangible assets, preferably some of them outside the US or a bunch of $ notes? So face up to reality, say goodby to cash, and by SPX (or find some not quite as inflated assets elsewhere...).
This is just lovely for earnings. No topline revenue, mind you.
I'm sure the "firing" consultants in the jobless recovery will be sharpening their pencils for another round of "cost" control.
I think this is what deflation feels like.
To people who think that higher saving is good, how does me not buying sh*t so that I can pay Mastercard back and they can wazz my money on filling their gaping NPL hole (created by those who can't or won't pay them back) while being really snippy about lending to anyone else help the economy?
I'm just doing yet more to shore up balance sheets. That money ain't coming out the other end this side of 2012. I don't want it and those f*ckers don't want me to have it. Multiplier null points.
This is big, but it doesn't look quite as scary when you look at the YOY % change, rather than the dollar value change:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=TOTALSL&s[1][transformation]=pc1
Now back to scary... in this chart, it's clear the bubble is bursting, but it has probably only begun:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TOTALSL
Not sure if I calculated it correctly, but a mean reversion takes us down to ~$600 billion.
Lets have this conversation after bustmas season. Im giving 50 pounds of flour to the ones in need who are being wiped not reported.
Where is wallstreetpro2 on this?
How much of the decline in consumer credit is do to people payoff/down loans and how much to the financial sector just writing balances off?
I am trying to sort out the same question. My guess is it leans to chargeoffs as opposed to payoffs. Not sure if there is any good macro data out there.
Someday, somewhere, in some country, on some planet, in some Universe, in some dimension, at a date and time to be specified at some future date, when it is least expected, there will be some signs of some sort of recovery, albeit tepid.
The market is just pricing that in.
TD. Thnx. This is a very relevant chart. However, again, if the Fed can continue to monetize AD INFINITUM, it does not matter if consumer credit falls. Cheque money will be replaced by a massively increased monetary base.
All the matters now is whether monetization can go on for ever. So it seems
Until the rest of the world leaves the American Financial Casino, and the house is left with a fist full of worthless chips.
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