Consumer Credit Rises At Fastest Pace Since June 2008... Or Does It? How The Fed Used Every Trick In The Book To Fudge The Number

Tyler Durden's picture

A quick glance at the headline of the just released Consumer Credit data may leave one with the impression that things are quickly improving for the US consumer. After all, at a monthly change of $7.6 billion in total consumer credit, this is not only a big beat of expectations of $4.7 billion, but is the highest monthly increase since June 2008. Time to declare an "all clear" for the consumer who based on this misleading data is now aggressively releveraging? Absolutely not. In fact, the Fed threw the kitchen sink in manipulating this monthly data. First, it pull page 1 from the BLS SOP: it revised the January increase from $5.01 billion to $4.44 billion, thereby making the change bigger. Second, the all importnat revolving credit number was once again negative at ($2.7) billion. This is the second consecutive drop in revolving credit after a brief pick up in December when consumers bought Made in Taiwan trinkets with their credit cards, and is the 29th out of 30 consecutive declines in the category. Offsetting this drop was the surge in Non-revolving credit: i.e., loans given by the US government and Fed-backed banks for car purchases and student loans. Next, all these numbers were seasonally adjusted: the NSA number actually plunged by $16 billion, from $2.433 trillion to $2.417 trillion. And the piece de resistance: the only source of funding in February, wait for it, was the federal government, as all other traditional sources of credit continue to retrench.

Bottom line: a dog tured wrapped in a Tiffany's case.

Monthly change in revolving and non-revolving credit (Seasonally Adjusted).

Monthly change by key holders of debt.

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tek77blu's picture

great interview by peter grandich on what these worsening financial conditions of the u.s. will do the the stock market, gold, silver, etc.:

TruthInSunshine's picture

Sorry for the OT -

Gundersen says Areva document is out that says Fukushima is greatest disaster of modern times unfolding. Reports have been kept guarded; he has seen the report.

Exact Areva report quote: "We are witnessing greatest disaster of modern times."

Video link in blue with my summary of his presentation:

April 6th Video of Arnie Gundersen, of Fairewinds Energy.

Closing Ranks: The NRC, the Nuclear Industry, and TEPCO are Limiting the Flow of Information

Gundersen says No 1 and No 2 are in deep trouble, plutonium was ejected from fuel pool during explosions, and that heavy, radioactive mud are making remaining structures unstable. Says info has been witheld and documents exist proving it. Says Areva has filed reports that show nuclear fuel in all 3 reactors reached 5000 degrees, which is higher than melting point of stainless steel and Zircaloy. Also says that disintegration of core is obvious. Says unit 2 containment was breached ALONE by hydrogen explosion. Areva and NRC know this yet failed to disclose it. Areva report states all crops and dairy products within a minimum of 50 kilometers are totally contaminated. Says unit 4 fuel pool cracked due to earthquake, and now with no water, Zircaloy/Hydrogen reaction was inevitable. Water didn't boil out, but leaked out due to crack. Says largest release is coming from unit 4 and that all releases are being volatalized. Exact Areva report quote: "We are witnessing greatest disaster of modern times."

barthezz's picture


Run a 'QRM' in Bloomie on symbol 'M'. Flash crash in Macy's at 11:31:54.

covert's picture

it can get better for the short sale experts.


SwingForce's picture

Remember the olden days when people would rob the banks? 

Now, the banks rob the people.

WALLST8MY8BALL's picture

Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Riding through the land
Dennis Moore, Dennis Moore
Without a merry band
He steals from the poor
And gives to the rich
Stupid bitch

Cleanclog's picture

Especially the Central Bank!

Bottom line, buy anything denominated in US$ cuz they're devaluing it like crazy so to hold value steady it will have to cost more in $s.  You're "f"ed to hold cash.  Stocks, gold, oil etc. . . 

Cdad's picture

I love dog turds.  More please.  More manipulated numbers.  Just go ahead and remove every last ounce of credibility from anything the Fed does.  Then move on to the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street.

Fire hoses, please.

mrdenis's picture

Tyler, please don't be insulting the kitchen sink 

ragedmaximus's picture

is this the revised revised of the revised revised number on the revised revised number???

Cdad's picture

This just in....more fabrication to meet the credit number fabrications.  At the BlowHorn, the tag line for the final hour of trading today is "today's market recovery."  Yep, even when the market goes's a recovery story.

This is going to be one epic credibility blow out...

BTW...sell algorithms are swarming the board...they are just not pushing hard...yet.


Anyone else ever notice how the final hour on the BlowHorn is always a bull/bull debate?  The claptrap these clowns are upchucking for Bill oatmeal Giffith is simply stupefying.  I don't even think the syndicate can say this shit anymore with a straight face.  How the fuck do these guys make it to the floor of the NYSE?

tj3's picture

turn it off...drop out of their stream of consciousness...

SheepDog-One's picture

CNBC first hour, middle hours, and last hours is just 1 big unicorn dew enema fest!

And to think, about 5 years ago CNBC was actually fairly good! Now nothing but just a bunch of gussied-up whores.

web bot's picture

Apart from my physical silver, I am 100% cash.

I am seriously worried that we are looking at a 2008 style correction coming. Nothing, nothing makes any #uckin sense any longer. Fundamentals don't work, charts don't work. I saw some clown today post a chart talking about upward movement of silver and its excellent prospects... and in the previous paragraph talk about how speculative money had moved into oil (and not silver???). Anything now moves the markets - even bad news and crisis. This is a direct result of free money via the Fed's QE2 sloshing around trying to find yield. The robots are in full control.

Get ready to load up on some cheap silver and get ready for Act 2 wth silver going to the moon.

Confucious 222's picture

"Apart from my physical silver, I am 100% cash."

Throw in some Au with the mostly Ag, and that's me. Anything these goons can screw with, they will. Therefore the construction of my rather metallic and liquid cash portfolio, which 10 years ago, had 0% PM's and 0% cash, mostly equities.

Those days are LONG GONE.


Arkadaba's picture

Another use for Ag:

The only acceptable 2-letter SCRABBLE word that ends in "g" in American tournament play is: ag.

Used it today - I knew reading ZH would come in handy some day ;)


RunningMan's picture

Ironically banks are desperate to generate decent earning assets. Have you all seen the low rates on home equity? Now you need to be pristine credit quality to qualify, but they do want releveraging and the consumers aren't biting. This data seems to support that the government is the lender of last resort.

chancee's picture


Sudden Debt's picture

I miss the silver bears... I WANT TO SEE ANOTHER CARTOON!!!


Kali's picture

Where do they stick the tax refund loans?  Revolving or non?  I love how the MSM touts consumer spending up for March.  Duh.  Tax refunds.

Silverhog's picture

Would be nice to know how many people maxing out their credit cards for Gold & Silver.

hardmedicine's picture

That's the only reason why I wish I  still had a credit card.......... but then again.... I will pass

AlaricBalth's picture

Here is the link to the FRB's current CC statistical release.

Cdad's picture

Based on wholesale call dumping I am seeing...I suspect Apple will finally take the entire NASDAQ down tomorrow.  You got to love that little dramatic lift at the end there...just a few more desperate banker clowns press on the pedal and dumping calls.

Do we even have an SEC anymore...or is that just a porn organization now?

SheepDog-One's picture

SEC's only purpose now is the worlds only consumer of 24/7 gay midget tranvestite porn.

augie's picture

At that point, what does it matter if its gay or straight?

Misean's picture

It's just a pr0N organization, but I'm more interested in seeing what you are. Lil' help?

topcallingtroll's picture

See how hard it is to deal with an output gap at the zero bound?

Inflation? We can only hope and pray for some real inflation, not this wimpy tepid fed-induced speculative-driven kind.

Long term deflation is the real monster, but i believe bennie can beat him, although we will all be poorer at the end of the great rebalancing when everything is mostly back to the old ratios.

SheepDog-One's picture

Of course total all-out BS, but should serve its purpose of closing the schtock markets green for now the 587th consecutive day in a row.

RichardENixon's picture

Seems to me student loans are the new consumer bubble. What better way to acquire long-term debt slaves?

SheepDog-One's picture

No one has a job so the #1 advertisement in the land is retraining to become a 'medical specialist', take out a big student loan and train for a job no one will likely need in another year.

Misean's picture

No shit dude. The airwaves and billboards and packed with "training" for every kind of government thuggery and service jobs...all with 125% financing, so you have cash to pay the bills whilst you train for your exciting new career!

g3h's picture

Anyone has a chart and data source for the whole history of outstanding student loans?

AlaricBalth's picture

Loan to value ratios on auto loans have dropped from 95% in 2007 to 80% in January 2011. This is the lowest number since the Fed started reporting this data in June 1971. This number had consistently been in the high 80's to mid 90's from 1971 to 2010. This trend makes it more difficult to buy an automobile, of course, unless you have more cash to put down. The average FICO score for auto loans has also been dropping for new car purchases and leases. These scores have gone from 730 (Jan 2010) to 688 (March 2011). What is offsetting the downward trend in LTV is that the credit quality of the purchasers is also going down, which allows more people to qualify for loans. 

So what is moving New Auto Sales? Lowering of credit standards would be a good place to look.

Elmer Fudd's picture

Trinkets aren't Made in Taiwan anymore; trinkets are Made in China.

boiltherich's picture

They must be including payday loans!

Quinvarius's picture

Obviously it is safe to raise rates and further tighten lending.  LOL.

DavidC's picture

Those poor students saddled with debt for the rest of their lives make the credit figures look GREAT!

In the UK two months ago, the credit figures looked good until it was noticed that a lot of people were using credit cards to pay their rent or their mortgage payments!


watmann's picture

The key item that is not refelcted in this repeort is the conversion of accout payables by credit cards for small business and not so small. Driven by massive incentives and essentially 30 to 60 days of interest free terms business pushed by banks who want to get charge fees are using more and more credit cards to amke account payable payments. This is a huge number and misstates the consu,ption as a reflection of the retail consumer.


Sorry all

tomster0126's picture

Just goes to show that we can't trust anything the big boys try to tell us...things really are not getting better, it's such a joke that they try to portray it like it is.  Get out of credit card debt ASAP!