The Contrarian View 28th March-1st April

So why bother with a contrarian outlook? Click
me to get some background on these reports

This weeks COT Index Review

S&P 500: Since Mid Feb we have seen a bearish set up in
the S&P COT report, this
positioning led to a strong bias, in that time the S&P declined around 100 points. This week we see a dramatic shift in
commercial positioning, the strongest on a weekly basis I have seen in a long
while. Commercial positioning has again become bullish, the large trader set up
needs to be a little weaker (below 30) for a full bullish setup overall.
(Commercial traders lead this COT report).

Bias: Neutral but close to a Bullish set up

EURUSD: The long bias remains strong and firm in the
Euro and we are not seeing much of a change from last
weeks report. (Large traders lead this COT report)

Bias: Bullish

GBPUSD: We saw strong selling after last weeks report,
the overall set up was neutral last week, but the lead large trader group did
show bearish strength, This week we are seeing a strong about turn and are
getting close to a bullish set up, again the overall set up is neutral, its not
quite hitting the figures we need for a full on bullish set up. (Large traders
lead this COT report)

Bias: Neutral

USDJPY: Surprisingly not a big change at all in COT
positioning after the Earthquake events, the USDJPY COT remains bearish. (Large
traders lead this COT report)

Bias: Bearish

GOLD: This weeks COT remains bearish with a similar strength
level to last weeks report. We do have the beginnings of a double top in Gold
which adds weight to this bearish bias. (Large trader lead this COT report)

Bias: Bearish

CRUDE OIL: Still a strong bullish set up in play with
crude oil that doesn’t seem like
it will be leaving us anytime soon. (Large traders lead this COT report)

Bias: Bullish

FX Retail Trader Position Analysis

This report describes a contrarian view on current retail trader
positioning in FX Click
me to get some background on these reports

USDJPY: 74.26% of retail traders remain long USDJPY,
maintaining our bearish bias for this pair.

Bias: Bearish

EURUSD: With the % of retail
traders short the euro decreasing to 60.25% the strength of our bullish bias
has receded a little we still remain bullish but this pir is getting closer to
the neutral bias zone.

Bias: Bullish

GBPUSD: This week as with the
COT report our overall bias for the GBPUSD according to the retail positioning
report is neutral.

Bias: Neutral

Comments

[Arch Duke Ferdinand]

So where in the world is it safe?

tia

[akak]

Crystal balls and assholes: Overabundant, and usually shitty.

[bankrupt JPM bu...]

I like the Gold "large trader' LOL, Guess who???