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The Contrarian View 4th April-8th April
So why bother with a
contrarian outlook? Click
me to get some background on these reports
This weeks COT Index
Review
S&P 500: Last weeks newsletter described a
strong shift in the commercial positioning in favor of the bulls. This week the
report has softened a little and taken a more neutral stance. (Commercial
traders lead this COT report).
Bias: Neutral
EURUSD: The long side bias
and COT set up for the Euro has increased this week. We are very close to the
most bullish the Euro COT has been in 6 months. (Large traders lead this COT report)
Bias: Bullish
GBPUSD: GBPUSD COT
positioning has become very volatile switching from bearish to bullish and from
bullish to bearish very suddenly in a last few weeks. This week we are seeing
an increasingly bearish COT set up which remains as last week in the neutral
zone. If the Commercial Index was over 70 we would have a full bearish set up. (Large traders lead this COT report)
Bias: Neutral
USDJPY: COT positioning has
become neutral this week. (Large traders lead this COT report)
Bias: Bearish
GOLD: A neutral COT set
up this week for Gold (Large trader lead this COT report)
Bias: Bearish
CRUDE OIL: Still a strong
bullish set up in play with crude oil that doesn’t seem like it will be leaving
us anytime soon. (Large traders lead
this COT report)
Bias: Bullish
FX Retail Trader
Position Analysis
This report
describes a contrarian view on current retail trader positioning in FX Click
me to get some background on these reports
USDJPY: 74.26% of retail
traders were long last week this week that number has dropped by 10% to 64.65%
even though they have been correct. Global intervention to weaken the Yen has
led to sustained upside strength in this pair regardless of what the market as
a whole is doing.
Bias: Bearish
EURUSD: Retail short positioning is increasing dramatically with 70.15% of retail
traders short the EURUSD as it makes multi-month highs. Both the COT and Retail
positioning report support a long bias.
Bias: Bullish
GBPUSD: Neutral again this week, confirming the overall COT view
Bias: Neutral
Provided by Pivotfarm.com Support and Resistance
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The euro COT shows commercials are fully short. It is bearish not bullish.