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The Contrarian View 9th – 13th May
So why bother with a contrarian outlook? Click me to get some background on these reports
A turbulent week across the markets but especially so in the Commodities where we saw some wild swings.
S&P 500 | Commercial Traders Lead this Market| Commercial 61.89 | Large 53.96 | Neutral
This weeks COT data shows a neutral set up with both Commercial and Large traders becoming Neutral. The uptrend for the S&P 500 remains very much intact; however the new highs we saw week ending 29th April are not being supported by Commercial traders.
EURUSD | Large Traders Lead this Market| Commercial 0.00 | Large 100.00 | Bullish
FX Retail Trader Positioning Analysis - 45.51% Long | 54.49% Short | Neutral
COT data as we provides information on the open interest of the Tuesday that it is collected and released 3 days later on a Friday. As a result the Euro COT will not be able to represent the 2 day sell off we say at the end of the week. However it is worth noting that the COT from Tuesday remains incredibly bullish, so it’s likely we are not quite seeing the end of the Euro bullishness. Short term speculation is unlikely to dampen wider fundamental realities. On the flip side of the coin supporting a more neutral view is the Retail Trader Positioning Analysis which shows a neutral set up.
GBPUSD | Large Traders Lead this Market| Commercial 14.72 | Large 67.37 | Neutral
FX Retail Trader Positioning Analysis - 44.79% Long | 55.21% Short | Neutral
Last week we finally got a bullish COT set up for the GBPUSD, unfortunately it did just scrape the set up in the week ending 29th April and we saw some selling that quickly took the COT set up back into neutral. Retail Trader Analysis also supports a more neutral view
GOLD | Large Traders Lead this Market| Commercial 52.02 | Large 43.65 | Neutral
We’ve seen a neutral COT set up with Gold for a while and this set up remains very much in play.
OIL | Large Traders Lead this Market| Commercial 22.35 | Large 76.70 | Slightly Bullish
We saw very strong selling in Crude last week; we’ve seen an amazingly bullish Crude COT, this week despite still technically being a bullish set up Large traders have pulled back to an index rating of 76.70, a few points lower and we would be in neutral territory.
Provided by Pivotfarm Support & Resistance. Redefined. Thanks to timingcharts.com
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Commercial traders lead one market, large lead another?! You make it up as you go along.
Where was the AG COT?
Market drops by 20% by july; margin compression is now all the rage. Q2 results will be leaked and be horrific.
Woodshed and 2x4 bitchezz and no vaseline period. America is broke.
Imo go contrarian on yo ass!
It's a matter of knowing how to read what you see. I see a major upmove in dollar accross the board; a major colllapse in all commodities; a major collapse in the stock market. AMZN could go from 200 to 100; CAT due for major correction,CONOCO due for big correction;many others. All this within the next 6 weeks,starting this week.
Yes! Trust the strength of the dollar. Sell all your physical silver and Uncle Ben will do what is needed to protect you. NOT!
1/(whatyousaid)
Good thoughts. I'm going contrarian.
Conflaguration, bitchez!
It's the new economic strategery.
But yer misconstruing his connatation.
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