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A Conversation With the Boots on the Ground
I have spent many hours speaking at length with the generals who are running our wars in the Middle East, like David Petraeus (click here for “The Spotlight Moves to Petraeus” at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/june-28-2010-4.html ), and James E. Cartwright (click here for “My Briefing with the Joint Chiefs of Staff” at http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/august-20-2010-3.html ). To get the boots on the ground view, I attended the graduation of a friend at the Defense Language Institute in Monterey, California, the world’s preeminent language training facility.
As I circulated at the reception at the once top secret installation, I heard the same view repeated over and over in the many conversations swirling around me. While the US can handily beat armies, defeating an idea is impossible. With the planet’s fastest growing population, Muslims are expected to double from one to two billion by 2050, the terrorists can breed replacements faster than we can kill them. The US will have to maintain a military presence in the Middle East for another 100 years. The goal is not to win, but to keep the war at a low cost, slow burn, over there, and away from the US.
I have never met a more determined, disciplined, and motivated group of students. There were seven teachers for 16 students, some with PhD’s and all native Arabic speakers. Many students had already completed multiple tours in Iraq, and intrigued by the baffling culture and language, were determined to master it. The Defense Department calculates the cost of this 63 week, total emersion course at $200,000 per student.
They are taught not just language, but also the history, culture, and politics of the region as well. I found myself discussing at length the origins of the Sunni/Shiite split in the 7th century, the rise of the Mughals in India in the 16th century, and the fall of the Ottoman Empire after WWI, and this was with a 19 year old private! I doubt most Americans his age could find the Middle East on a map. Students graduated with near perfect scores. If you fail a class, you get sent to Iraq, unless you are in the Air Force, which kicks you out of the service completely.
As we feasted on humus and other Arab delicacies, I studied the pictures on the wall describing the early history of the DLI in WWII, and realized that I knew several of the participants. The school was founded in 1941 to train Japanese Americans in their own language to gain an intelligence advantage in the Pacific war. General “Vinegar Joe” Stillwell said their contribution shortened the war by two years. General Douglas McArthur believed that an army had never before gone to war with so much advance knowledge about its enemy. To this day, the school’s motto is “Yankee Samurai”.
My old friends at the Foreign correspondents’ Club of Japan will remember well the late Al Pinder. He spent the summer of 1941 photographing every Eastern facing beach in Japan, successfully smuggled them out hidden in a chest full of Japanese sex toys. He then spent the rest of the war working for the OSS in China. I know this because I shared a desk in Tokyo with Al for nearly ten years. His picture is there in all his youth, accepting the Japanese surrender in Korea with the first crop of DLI graduates.
To see the data, charts, and graphs that support this research piece, as well as more iconoclastic and out-of-consensus analysis, please visit me at www.madhedgefundtrader.com . There, you will find the conventional wisdom mercilessly flailed and tortured daily, and my last two years of research reports available for free. You can also listen to me on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking on “This Week on Hedge Fund Radio” in the upper right corner of my home page.
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"the terrorists can breed replacements faster than we can kill them"
And by the terrorists of course you mean:
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/34704
Wow. This article is such a piece of crap and so well below ZH's standards and mandate.
It's all brain-dead culture/religion war inflammation and zero enlightenment.
Troll chum at best. A really lame submission IMO.
D i s a p p o i n t e d !
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvbQ4wJak_c
[Edit for Otto]
You are a crazy warmonger. Islam has not attacked us since 1529. We have attacked them a hundred times at least. War forever, what orwellian fantasy world do you live in.
Those who support these wars should send their children to the front lines.
So did anyone read the worthless post and see it had no point. I am so fucking sick of this guy posting here and I get junked for laughing at WB7 saying fascinating, just fascinating. He was being facetious--I know it. WTF?
MHFT is a sycophant. A waste of space too. Have a nice conversation among yourselves on worthless fodder.
Are we at war with Eastasia? Last week the enemy was Eurasia...Or was it?
humus [sic] is a delicacy?
Transliteration is up to you, though I believe two "m"s would be more close to the Arabic. And while it might not qualify as a delicacy, what is served at a gathering in Lebanon or Saudi Arabia, as opposed to what is in the refrigerated section of a US supermarket, comes darn close. A pool of virgin olive oil in the middle, a little extra lemon, some pine nuts, and good stone oven baked bread (plus a cold beer) ain't a bad way to fill your stomach.
Sah tein!
Humus is ground, flavored chick peas (garbonzo beans), and is spelled correctly.
As long as you believe ________ is the enemy, you will always be at war.
I admire the men who have attained the education described and am certain they will be a valuable asset to the U.S. as things go forward, but the notion that our country can maintain our existing military presence worldwide for 100 years highlights the overall foolishness of the military mindset. Short of the creation of a miraculous set of inventions that elevate human, specifically U.S. worker, productivity several fold above current levels, it is mathematically impossible for the U.S. to maintain its guns and butter policy for an extended period of time.
I suppose that every empire, just as it passes it pinnacle, is beset by visions of century-long dominations. The U.S. will not be a military superpower in 100 years, at least not in a form recognizably similar to the current polity. I'm not even sure we will make it to the decade mark, much less a century.
A true military superpower would be impervious to counter-attack if it wanted to wage war. The US is only a superpower when compared to countries that cannot defend themselves.
You're all nuts. Organized terrorism doesn't even exist...it's all a government scare -'em campaign designed to keep the tax herd quiescent and government-loving.
Thar be more truth in that statement than many believe.
Breeding them and feeding them are vastly different things. If things go on as they are now, yes your ideas are credible. But I say that the world will change drastically, and soon. There will not be two billion Muslims
From the bio of John Thomas AKA Mad Hedge Fund Trader
"With the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq, Thomas was drafted by the US Marine Corp to serve as a pilot."
http://seekingalpha.com/author/mad-hedge-fund-trader
Drafted? Wasn't aware the draft was enacted during this conflict.
One wonders if someone spent decades offshore after graduating from college in 1974 they found time to be in the active military or in the reserves. That would be the only way to be "drafted".
His bio also says "In his free time Thomas is a commercial aircraft pilot." Are we to guess he was flying freight for a commercial carrier?
I'm not here to defend this fellow, nor do think his post has much place on a site dedicated primarily to financial issues, but I will offer an explanation of the "commercial pilot" notation. There is a rating that a pilot may earn called "Commercial Pilot". Among other things it allows someone to charge for flying somebody somewhere (as opposed to merely sharing expenses). It does not mean he flies for a commercial airline. It does mean that he has demonstrated skills beyond the level of a VFR SEL pilot certificate. (I also happen to have my rating.)
Bunch of clueless responses. We are in the Mideast to control who gets to buy the oil and to maintain the dollar peg to oil. We have 800 military bases around the world to control who gets to buy the other critical resources. The target of our military bases is not Islam. The target is China, India, Brazil, Indonesia...etc and every other fast growing country that could threaten the Hegemony of the Western powers. It is a quirk of history that large amounts of cheap oil lies under land controlled by Muslims. If the west had not squandered huge amounts of it's own cheap oil on war and useless endevours we would be better off.
The fact that not a single person mentioned this yet shows how clueless most of you people are.
Perhaps we are all clueless because you have monopolized all the clues. Heck, you've even purloined the Valley Girls' favorite word.
Perhaps we lack your superior intellect. Perhaps we lack the proximity to important information that you have. Perhaps we lack your undoubted inner access to all the world's decision makers. Perhaps we have not spent decades traveling to each and every nook and cranny of the world to uncover the grim realities.
Or perhaps your argument would benefit from a touch of humility.
There is an absolute truth that has infested this site, with absolute being the only part of that description that is accurate. The "truth" part is the same sort of truth claimed by all of the world's various (and competing) religions, as well as the truth claimed by the various political parties.
On occasion I happen to have knowledge of something and see that the site's "truth" is wrong. Other times I have doubts, but lack the knowledge to have more than an opinion on a matter. What I have seen is that words and phrases such as maybe, perhaps, it is possible, etc., have disappeared from the lexicon of ZH. It is now Zero Tolerance, with Fox News type bullying (or MSNBC), and this change explains why most of the old posters have moved on (I think even the original Tyler moved on, and took Marla with him).
I know the semantic difference between opinion and fact, "truth" and truth, and even the difference between being clued in and being arrogantly self-assured.
Humility. Know what you know, but also know what you don't know.
del
Chindit, great post, thank you. Opinions are important, especially opposing ones. No one really owns the truth. Humility, a rare virtue.
Truth? So spouting outright lies about Muslims and the reasons we are in the Middle East is OK? Many of the comments in this post prove yet again how stupid most people are.
I will take this opportunity to relay some personal views on Islam. They may or may not differ from what others write here, but I do have some bonafides. I can speak, read and write Arabic, and I used to live in Saudi Arabia, though I am neither Arab nor Moslem.
I am of the view that there is an element of Islamic society that both gives the religion a bad name and tends toward both intolerance and violence. I have been disappointed that moderate Moslems have not taken up the battle against those who lend their faith a bad name, but I understand their fears. I would hope that moderates of any faith take exceptions to the fanatics who claim the faith, but immoderate Islam is a threat and a danger, even if it represents only a fraction of the totality of believers. In my opinion, it even exceeds the danger exhibited by Orthodix Jews who claim some Biblical right to lands others have occupied since time immemorial, though it is only a matter of degree.
Saudi Arabia, the heart of the Koran Belt, is particularly intolerant, and I believe it is this intolerance, even more than US Mideast policy, that led to 9/11 . You see, in Saudi it is illegal---under threat of death by public beheading---to practice any faith other than Islam. No churches, no Bibles/Torahs/Teachings of Buddha/Bhagavad Gita, etc are allowed in the country. Even totally private, in home services are prohibited. And non-Moslems are prohibited from entering Mecca, and are warned by numerous signs on the highway as Mecca (or Medinah) are approached, with checkpoints and turn-offs.
I have written this before, but I will repeat. In the mid 1990's, a group of workers from the Philippines was holding a private, in home Christian service. On a "tip" the service was raided by the Mutawwa (Committee for the Preservation of Virtue and the Elimination of Vice). The two lay preachers were arrested and sentenced to death by public beheading, ironically---or callously---scheduled to be carried out on Christmas day. Only the intervention of the US government halted the execution and got the two men deported.
It should be noted that the government of Saudi Arabia has funded the construction of numerous mosques around the world, including one near the Vatican.
This is hypocrisy pure and simple. It also creates an atmosphere where those growing up in Saudi Arabia are inculcated with the idea that other religions are so vile that the very practice of one deserves public beheading. The hatred of non-Moslems exhibited by 15 of the 19 9/11 hijackers did not rely on US Mideast policy, nor did Osama bin Laden originally take exception to US policy vis-a-vis Israel. What set him off originally was the presence of US troops within the borders of Saudi Arabia, even though those troops were sent to address Saddam's brutal invasion of Kuwait.
I am not religious, but I can use the cliche (regarding Moslems) that some of my best friends are....... The Moslems I associate with are generally warm, kind hearted and morally upright people. They are good parents and good friends. Most are ashamed of the fanatics amongst them, just as I often am embarrassed by the fanatics and morons from my country who call themselves Christians. Unless they are particularly brave or particularly foolhardy, however, few dare to raise their voices against the fringe elements of their faith. This is with good reason. Just as Theo van Gogh was slaughtered for directing a movie some Moslems found offensive, or Salma Rushdie has an outstanding fatwa because he offended someone (apparently the fanatics' god needs to outsource retribution), moderate Moslems know they face far more than a verbal takedown. As bad as I think people like Jerry Falwell, Pat Robertson, or the so-called Christian Sarah Palin are (were), none has yet resorted to more than verbal violence against those who oppose them or offend their sensibilities.
Perhaps I am wrong, but I do not believe for one second that a complete withdrawal by the US from the Middle East, nor even a total abandonment of Israel by the US, would eliminate all of the threat represented by fanatic Islam. Some, yes...all, no.
I will agree with you in the view that oil is the reason the US is in the Middle East. It ain't to spread democracy (we have learned democracy can lead to Hammas), nor is it to corner the market on egg timers. At the same time, the threat from radical Islam is real. I have seen it firsthand in Saudi, in Indonesia, in southern Thailand, and in Pakistan. I have also lost close friends to it, both Moslem and non-Moslem.
You are presenting things in the wrong way. Unfortunately you seem pretty straightforward and decent in your view - which makes one less apt to spot the gaps in logic and fact - but just to point out the flaws
First, radical islam is not a centralized bogey man. There is no "belief system" that holds any strange brew of beliefs (like kill anyone who doesnt' believe, outlaw all religions: every single thing in Islam is by intention not by name, so you can't make someone Muslim by getting rid of all the other books)
- There are people who are displaced, bombed, and generally angry that are radicalized. Palestinans might even be in that camp. These people are radicalized, and it isn't because of a book. That's like saying the US is radicalized in its killing because of the Constitution.
- There are nation states like Saudi which are despotic regimes kept in power by the US. I am sure you've seen the Bushes kissing the Saudi elite. Saudi is a closed society, and they rule with an iron fist for sure. Calling that embodiment of an Islamic state is a joke. In fact, the last thing they want are true Islamic states (populism of sorts). Isn't it interesting that most of the 9/11 operatives were from Saudi?
Second, many many Muslims have spoken out against any use of violence against civilians. How many normal muslim voices do you see on mainstream TV? I assure you you don' t need to be disappointed, you just won't find people speaking the truth on that thing. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGnXy_PQUno
Chindit - You are wrong about 9/11. Muslems are the convenient fall-guys. It was clearly an inside job. A New Peal Harbor was required and it was provided.
I'm disappointed. I thought you were pretty sharp. If you don't believe me, just spend a little time looking into Bldg. #7 and then try to reconcile with your idea that the Muslims did it.
In local news - be careful - bad bad flu going around. I soaked in the hot springs yesterday and it helped.
Peace.
Chindit, while I respect your experience, Zack's reason trumps anecdotes.
Regards
Yes. I doubt Kissinger schemed to dismantle Communism in South America because the Communist manifesto was so displeasing to his political sensibilities. They did not want populism to grow because those govts may not be favorable to open markets and the need for extraction of resources. Once populism took ahold, it would spread like wild fire. That is why the little island of Cuba with not much of anything of concern was the favorite bastard child of the west.
Wake up. $1 trillion in security/military/war spent and $1 trillion taken by personal taxes (in a year, every year and increasing). The rest is debt, and will eventually collapse (I've paid thousands in social security, you think that hasn't been spent in Iraq many years ago contaminating the water supply and justified by M.Albright "it was a hard decision and worth it")
The West does not want the resurgent indigenous populations in Central and South America to retake control of their contries. Unlike the US, most countries south of the border have large indigenous populations. Most are second class citizens controlled by European immigrants who control the countries.
The US and Western Europe who are the beneficiaries of the resources in South America will never allow the indigenous populations to retake control. There will be more civil wars breaking out in the future as the European immigrants seek to wipe out the indigenous populations.
"The US will have to maintain a military presence in the Middle East for another 100 years."
What an insufferable, narcissistic, militaristic blowhard, and what a constant irritant this jerkwad is to this otherwise wonderful website. (I can tolerate Leo.)
Whatever happens to Islam or any other organized religion (though I give Jesus of Nazareth huge credit for his acknowledgement of the Caesar/God differential, which Islam emphatically does not), the fact is that the United States of America -- i.e., our vaunted but hopelessly failed experiment in federative government -- won't survive the decade, as our fiat-financed welfare-warfare state is a classic example of domestic overindulgence and foreign overstretch.
We are on the verge of a "devolution revolution," in other words -- http://libertarianpapers.org/articles/2009/lp-1-32.pdf -- that will begin here but won't end here."
"The goal is not to win, but to keep the war at a low cost, slow burn, over there, and away from the US."
How many dead 19 year old's would you consider "high cost"?
MHFT's statements are standard issue U.S. military. 100 years, a tolerable death toll, lots of expensive equipment, all to keep an inevitable battle at a simmer. He is, as usual, completely clueless, but probably on target as to where we are headed. It is apolicy that serves the US military very well, and especially the industrial complex that feeds off of eternal conflict.
Makes you wonder about the nature of this "Islam" problem - the "solution" is to maintain a slow burn indefinitely, to keep the Gates of Vienna closed. But for the fact that human lives are at stake, I think this point of view would be regarded as madness. Look at your every day life, where you are encouraged to flush problems out into the open, and resolve them. We seem intent on the zombification of every issue, be it a bankrupt TBTF or a conflict with a large chunk of the human population on the planet. Like the bankrupt banks, do we assume time will cure the problem?
Islam is not capable of reform - it is hardwired to reject it. It is not a religion of peace, but of conflict and dominance, and it seeks to impose its backward, psychotic, antiquated, misogynist, intolerant set of rules over all of mankind. It is patient in seeking this goal. Essentially, Islam is a menace. You could have a beer over whether we're any better by the way, whether the Western religion of secular capitalism is superior. I think, for all its faults, it is.
I have an 18 year old son. My attitude is use a nuke, several in fact, before you ask me to sacrifice him in this battle. My son is not worth the lives of millions, or billions of Muslims intent on advancing their religion. I think it's fair to warn people first, but they won't listen. So, sorry. I'm not interested in half-assed measures, or slow burns for 100 years.
I think this is the view of a majority of Americans.
With respect, you (in all likelihood) don't have a clue what you are saying. First, you are blathering over a set of random things over oppressive dictatorships or rulers (usually sponsored by the US to wrest control over people, ie Saudia Arabia), over random facts that you don't really understand (such as why wearing a veil is not misogynistic, and what's purpose is...ask a woman with a veil why don't you), over seeing tribal culture (who happen to be Muslim) on display in a society that doesn't have to worry about clean water in the morning (and extrapolating from an ancient tribal culture). All of these put together with virtually no understanding of Islam usualy lead to the of "islam is the problem". Finally, you assume that the goal of muslims is to somehow dominate and take over the west (whatever that means), harkens on Cowboy vs Indians (killem killem), Jap scare, Communism...trust me individual muslims are just like you, they put their pants on in the morning, they want to live a clean life, have a job, have a family, pray to God, eat some good food, and be optimistic about their future. Anywhere I've been, people at core are good and all the same and often because of their religion in Muslim countries.
Trust me the Fed is more of a menace than any other one thing on the planet.
Add to that their ruined families...but TPB don't give a shit...its all just stats to them.
MadHedge they can produce large numbers of 4'th stringers yes.
There are two upsides of the prosecution of the WOT. First, we have several hundred thousand battle hardened troops that have had to face an enemy that strikes from the shadows. Second we have erased their first, second, and third stringers. We are no longer facing their best and brightest. There is no training camp that is safe any longer - in the mountains of Waziristan, in the jungles of Colombia, or in the halls of the Chicago school system.
So murdering a bunch of goat herders who refuse to accept the puppet governments we installed has accomplished exactly what?
Goat virginity.
LOL...spewing coffee on my screen.
Your right...it's actually a war for animal rights!...fully supported by PETA!!!
It was the damn goats who flew the planes into the towers!!!...they prepositioned explosives on three floors with the help of sheep!!!...the last cockpit transmission was baaahhhlllaaa akbar!!!...ROTFL.
y'know...I wasn't expecting...that's no fair, lulz!
I usually avoid the madspammer's posts, but as a student of military matters, let me pose this to whomever:
By what possible modality does a military presence in the region "keep the war far . . . away from the US"?
The Arabic peoples were content to pretty much ignore western civilization for decades, until we (the West, that is) got tied up in the founding of Israel. Since then, the presence of our forces and proxies has not made us safer. And it seems to me that, since 9/11, the war has been kept off of US soil primarily by good old fashioned law enforcement techniques, Not the New World Order imposed by the neo-cons (and continued by the Obamanistas).
Clean out the Pakistani frontier, and then go.
Jasper - Good post. I was with you all the way until this - Clean out the Pakistani frontier, and then go
Just appologize and leave - asap.
That is the BIG lie. You can "radicalize" anyone with enough provocation. We blow up their house and park in their yard and then point fingers when they get upset. We are nothing but provocateurs.
Boots on ground? I'm thinking more like "nose up neo-cons asshole".
We have a winner!
Sorry Mad, you've provided some interesting posts before, many thanks, but this one has been seriously detrimental to my opinion of you.
Regards
GF - I disagree. When has Mad ever been good? Any examples?
... I was trying to be nice.
GF - I disagree. When has Mad ever been good? Any examples?
I take issue with the word war.If it was an all out war results would be being achieved.The problem is we have a military "situation" in which the Western participants are expected to gain results with one arm tied behind their back.The countries the funding cash,weapons,ideology and religous fervor come from are all off limits.The hands on the control buttons are far from Afghanistan,the casualties they sustain are usually from poorer backgrounds and are just cannon fodder and totally expendable.The real problems are to do with power enforced via religon in these other nations.If you could do what you wanted in your own medieval feudal state the last thing you want is the modern world,freedom and democracy (if such things exist or have ever existed on earth ) encroaching on your own power base so you have a war to control events and keep your power base in line.The West is weak as it has so few values left which are worth anything.Political Correctness is destroying our nations,allowing enemies in without a face who just bide their time.The longer we piss around in the middle east and with failed states such as Pakistan,Somalia,etc, the greater the cost.Also for any society to prosper and be strong everyone has to feel a part of it and benefit from its association,in the Western World we are continually dividing our societies and therefore growing weaker.If you are not prepared to fight and die for what you believe in you will cease to exist on a long enough timeline.
"With the planet’s fastest growing population, Muslims are expected to double from one to two billion by 2050", I just crapped in my pants! (well metaphorically anyway)