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Copper demand outlook in the short term

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Tyler and I are thinking of redoing the 4th floor at ZH headquarters and to figure out when to do it, we were looking at copper futures on COMX (which is what normal people do... right?)

Below is a chart for a HG N9 contract (high grade copper for delivery on July 2009, which is one of the more liquid contracts currently out there):
The price of copper has largely followed the trajectory of many other markets. As we stated, we don't think we are close to the bottom (despite the recent equity rally) but copper looks susceptible to a particularly sharp correction as equity and commercial real estate numbers worsen. With real estate (new construction) looking to get worse before it gets better and electronics of all kinds seeing almost universal demand pressures, it's tough to see any major upside. The only potential savior is China going ahead with expansion in the face of a terrible export outlook and its reserves getting spanked by the dollar; not the most bankable sentiment.

 

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