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Corn Prices To Soar As Chinese Imports Increase Ninefold Compared To Official Projections

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Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:01 | 939651 flaunt
flaunt's picture

Maybe if we force them to accept our toxic Monsanto GMO corn we can simply kill them all off and "fix" the global food crisis.

Wouldn't surprise me if some maniacal fascist somewhere in the dark corners of this rotten system were thinking right along those lines.

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:14 | 939661 samsara
samsara's picture

Wouldn't be ironic,  a few years out,  all the 3rd world nations using GMOs, and a disease came along that only targeted a particular monoculture. 

3rd world has a famine event.  Hundreds of millions die...

That would be ironic.  You couldn't plan something like that could ya?

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:36 | 939686 Mad Max
Mad Max's picture

That's crazy talk!

But far more importantly, losing 300-500M people in the true third world would have very little effect on global use of oil and other fixed resources.  Resource consumption is enormously skewed to higher income countries, not surprisingly.

The thought that China might be induced to use such time-bomb crops is, well, interesting.

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 23:50 | 939789 Michael
Michael's picture

Watch at precisely 2:22 in this video as this Egyptian man is murdered in Alexandria.
We are all Khaled Said Murder at 2:22

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmFnY8bM6CE

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 23:52 | 939810 Michael
Michael's picture

A real leader of the USA would begin to prepare our country for 7 years of famine.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 00:00 | 939829 CPL
CPL's picture

What good would that do?  Tell 400 million people "sorry, there's nothing left to eat"?  People will eventually ask the question, "how did it come to this?"

 

Easy, there are too many of you.

 

Revolution.  Regime change.  Cross district voting poll.  Writing letters to elected representative.  Full out warfare.  Doesn't matter.

Food, when there is none, has no politics.  At that point it's survival.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 00:20 | 939866 Michael
Michael's picture

Voting in elections is working a lot better these days. I've made sure of that. Not perfect though.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 01:10 | 939936 Michael
Michael's picture

Did you hear about;

NW Ohio Train Jumps Tracks, Massive Ethanol Fire Forces Evacuations

http://www.indianasnewscenter.com/news/video/Train--115432519.html

ROTFLMAO!

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 03:12 | 940019 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

Did you hear about that possible war in Asia? Thailand vs. Cambodia.

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2011-02/07/c_13721128.htm

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 04:11 | 940050 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture
Corn Prices To Soar As Chinese Imports Increase Ninefold Compared To Official Projections

So it's not the evil Fed raising food prices around the world after all, but good old-fashioned increase in demand (and decrease in supply) that sets food prices?

Surprise, surprise! :-)

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 05:03 | 940069 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Amazing how this increase has been evenly distributed over the past 6 months to provide a continuously rising price. It's also amazing how this increase in demand has made practically all commodities rise in unison.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 05:40 | 940083 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Amazing how this increase has been evenly distributed over the past 6 months to provide a continuously rising price. It's also amazing how this increase in demand has made practically all commodities rise in unison.

Liar.

Food prices are clearly detached from other commodities and they started rising dramatically last summer:

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/_VgJQTp0Bsf0/TU6_YfTtTSI/AAAAAAAAAMU/2...

... which rise coincides the record heat wave in key grain producing countries in eastern Europe and Russia. (This year there was also record rain/snow in major corn producing areas in Europe.)

Food prices were largely flat from mid 2009 to mid 2010 - other commodities were not. (Btw., the graph starts on 2009/02 - the announcement of QE1.)

FYI, 2010 turned out to be the hottest climate year on record:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

The predicted first symptoms of global warming will be increased volatility of the weather (hotter summers and colder winters, more extreme precipitation and more extreme draught).

But keep denying global warming, keep denying that supply and demand works in commodities markets and keep propagating your "it must be the Fed QE2" conspiracy.

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 05:40 | 940086 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Liar? I think you mean "linear". Look at corn 6 months. A linear fucking rise. Anyway, I didn't realize Silver, Copper, Platinum, etc were agricultural commodities.

But keep propagating your hopium smoking, Krugman cock-sucking agenda.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 05:52 | 940090 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Yes, you are a liar because you've seen this data before plenty of times so you cannot be merely 'wrong'.

You can read the graphs, 05/2009 to 05/2010:

  • food prices: almost 0%, in a narrow +- 1% channel
  • commodity prices: more than 6%.

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 06:14 | 940097 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh right, you're now pushing official data. How predictable.

"More Critical Thinking Wanted" = "Gullible Acceptance of MSM/Gov't Opinion".

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 07:03 | 940125 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

What government data - I cited a graph that uses public commodities price data ...

FYI, the CME Group (which owns the CBOE, NYMEX and other commodities trading exchanges) is very much not government owned:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CME+Profile

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 05:53 | 940092 Michael
Michael's picture

I just thank the creator for the solar minimum to teach you who actually is in charge. You just have to learn the hard way my friend.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 06:45 | 940102 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

If you think the new solar cycle of the G2V type star our planet is circling around will significantly decrease solar irradiation in the years to come and cause an 'ice age' you will be deeply disappointed ...

Here's the latest raw data:

http://www.climate4you.com/images/TSI%20LASP%20Since2003.gif

The average is trending up.

Here's the prediction:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

2012-2014 will be the peak of Cycle 24. 2010 was a quiet year, with low total solar irradiance.

Guess what the chances are for your new 'ice age', with increasing solar irradiation? :-)

Man, listen to me, in the summers to come you will need extreme protection sun lotion, not arctic outdoor clothing. (Sunglasses you already have I figure, with a face like that.)

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 06:50 | 940111 Michael
Michael's picture

I check the solar activity every day. The solar winds have been very low the past three years and sunspot activity, an indication of solar irradiation levels, have been very low.

I really feel sorry for your kind that has trouble understanding.

http://spaceweather.com/

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 07:08 | 940115 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Man, look at the very fresh sunspot graph I just linked to, are you able to recognize a rising trendline that has formed in late 2010?

Here it is again:

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif

So what do you think what will happen if we combine 2010's baseline heat waves at the solar minimum, with the new solar maximum expected at around 2013, with +1-3 watts per square meter irradiation?

Do you expect an ice age like the global warming deniers, or even hotter, record-setting years than 2010 was?

I expect the latter :-)

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 07:16 | 940130 Michael
Michael's picture

Look at the current lower part of the graph.

The surface  temperature records controlled by the global warming fanatics have been manipulated by the likes of the head of NASA and GISS head Hanson for their political agenda for a carbon tax. Look at the satellite data and ARGOS ocean buoys that contradicts their findings. Also look at the satellite photographs of the Arctic and Antarctic. More Ice then in 2006. 

P.S. I am not a Holocaust denier.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 07:24 | 940139 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Dude, it's not just your avatar that is sick :-)

Also look at the satellite photographs of the Arctic and Antarctic.

How could I cite them in my discussion with you? You would immediately claim that they are government manipulated :-)

You would even deny that a ship sailed through the Northwest Passage, which in 2008 opened up for the first time in living memory ...

Did you know that the 'global cooling' fruitcakes have been predicting cooling since 2008 or so? How did 2010 turn out for Russian forests and the grain harvest? Is that government manipulated data too? :-)

You are living in a weird parallel universe of denial.

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 07:32 | 940147 Michael
Michael's picture

Dude, You are a fucking tool. Who the fuck do you think you are dealing with?

Ice at the North Pole in 1958 and 1959 – not so thick

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/26/ice-at-the-north-pole-in-1958-not-so-thick/

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 07:49 | 940161 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

Atomic subs have been able to break through the north pole's 2m-3m thick ice sheet easily, ever since subs were big enough and were able to stay submerged long enough to travel so far under the ice.

Regular commercial ships sure cannot do that so what's your point? You sure are not replying to my points in an even remotely relevant fashion :-)

Are you even able to remain on topic or are you suffering from some sort of compulsive non sequitur disorder? I noticed this is a genetic defect common amongst libertarians. Have you considered marrying a non-libertarian, to reduce the inbreeding? :-)

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 07:52 | 940166 Michael
Michael's picture

You are a typical neo-lib eco-fascist who has a mental disorder.

You refuse to learn due to your cognitive dissonance.

I am done with you.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 08:10 | 940179 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

Thanks for demonstrating the points I made :-)

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 07:44 | 940157 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

So it's not the evil Fed raising food prices around the world after all, but good old-fashioned increase in demand (and decrease in supply) that sets food prices?

Surprise, surprise! :-)

 

The US Grain Council, the industry body, said late on Thursday that it has received information pointing to Chinese imports as high as 9m tonnes in 2011-12, up from 1.3m in 2010-11."

 

We are just at start of 2011.

The Chinese are certainly not the first country to buy more food before prices rise too much.

It is a reaction to food prices rise. It will indeed make prices go higher but it was not the kick off.

It is a sign that people all over the world no longer rely on time supply and prefer to start hoarding to protect themselves from the FED monetary policies.

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 08:08 | 940178 More Critical T...
More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

 

The Chinese are certainly not the first country to buy more food before prices rise too much.

Did you know that demand for food is largely inflexible/inelastic?

The reasons are obvious:

  • unlike gold and silver, corn actually rots (doh)
  • corn silos have limited capacity and can buffer only so much - and storage (keeping it heated, dry, etc.) costs money.

And yes, it's also becoming increasingly clear that this year's corn harvest will probably be bad too, in key corn production areas.

Do you fancy that this particular information about (further) decreased supply might have any connection to prices and to buy-side purchase decisions? :-)

Or do you still think it's the Fed starting to buy long term bonds in September that started the food price increases 3 months earlier in June - while the similar QE1 scheme in 2009 did not increase the price of food commodities at all?

 

Mon, 02/07/2011 - 09:29 | 940253 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture
  • corn silos have limited capacity and can buffer only so much - and storage (keeping it heated, dry, etc.) costs money.
  • Food processing does exist.

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 14:29 | 940985 More Critical T...
    More Critical Thinking Wanted's picture

    Food processing does exist.

    Yes but still the buffering capacity (storage and shelf space) is limited and in fact it is optimized down all the time to reduce shelf time. Plus a product older than a few months is harder to market - unless it's canned food. (but even for canned food being older than a few months reduces the price - so you've paid the storage costs and are losing value as well.)

    Modern food producing systems are simply not set up for speculative, long-term storage/buffering - they try to move products as quickly and efficiently as possible, to reduce buffering risks and because consumers generally prefer freshly produced food.

    Food companies generally try to avoid the effects of volatility, not speculate on it. That's why they generally also use long-terms futures with physical delivery and have a much smoother price curve than the futures graphs you can see on ZH ...

    So food processing does not help much - unless you are thinking in terms of bunkers and canned food :-)

     

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 11:29 | 940485 Population Bubble
    Population Bubble's picture

    Pop that bubble!

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 23:49 | 939803 CPL
    CPL's picture

    Monsanto yeilds in drought regions have shown as much that it's an over priced seed with the same weaknesses that all plants have.  If there is no water, it just doesn't grow.  If it doesn't grow then the critters eat it.

     

    There is a cycle to growing any plant and the window is still pretty narrow to get development from a seed.

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 01:52 | 939976 benb
    benb's picture

    Flaunt - “Maybe if we force them to accept our toxic Monsanto GMO corn we can simply kill them all off and "fix" the global food crisis…”

    98% of all corn now coming out of Iowa is GMO. Recent reports (per anti-GMO activist Jeffrey M. Smith) are that second generation lab rats fed BT corn have purple colored testicles (instead of pink) and are (IIRC) bordering sterility or are sterile and have a high incidence of health problems. It is further reported that when livestock having been fed GMO grains is butchered their organs are discolored and it stinks strongly where as non-GMO fed livestock does not stink when butchered. Also it is reported that some U.S. sausage manufacturers now are getting their sheep casing from Australia as the GMO fed U.S. livestock’s casing falls apart. So if it’s happening to the farm livestock what do you think it’s doing to humans? Yes, the Chinese will be affected just as the animals and everyone else who consumes these eugenics poisons. The food has been weaponized. Hungry people will eat it anyway, whether it makes them sick, sterilizes them or not. But yes, go long corn and you’ll make a killing IMO.

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 09:24 | 940244 hardcleareye
    hardcleareye's picture

    Remembering the corporate positions that the Tobacco companies took regarding the safety of their product, I have a very skeptical view of GMO's.

    That being said, Jefferey Smith work and writing on GMO's leaves much to be desired...  he misrepresents the sources he cites and damages the creditability of the cause he is fighting.

    Example (of many!!!!):"The only published human feeding experiment revealed that the genetic material inserted into GM soy transfers into bacteria living inside our intestines and continues to function.[39] "

    This is what the report cited "39" actually said:

    "The transgene did not survive passage through the intact gastrointestinal tract of human subjects fed GM soya. ....we conclude that gene transfer did not occur during the feeding experiment."

    Jefferey Smith's writings are not creditable. 

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 15:01 | 941057 benb
    benb's picture

    Hardcleareye -“Jefferey Smith's writings are not creditable.”

    Your link that sourced your quote did not work. Jeffrey Smith is far from the only one warning of the same nasty GMO problem. I’ve listened to him give many interviews. There’s all sorts of disinfo being put out by the Military/Industrial/Ag complex through their propaganda arms.

    Here’s another source (There are many more if you don’t like Smith) - http://www.truth-out.org/1215091

    Here’s Smith’s Website - http://www.responsibletechnology.org/   

    Inform yourself and I would think you will reconsider.

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:03 | 939652 Charles Mackay
    Charles Mackay's picture

    Well done Tyler.  Could it be the last six months or so run-up in grain prices is just a prelude to what is to come in the rest of 2011?  Hopefully not, otherwise we will see more than our share of peoples' revolutions this year.

     

    Also check out: NYT: 

    Crops Wither and Prices Rise in Chinese Drought

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/asia/04china.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&...

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 23:45 | 939794 CPL
    CPL's picture

    Peak Humanity...

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 00:11 | 939849 yabyum
    yabyum's picture

    cpr: Perhaps the best statement on ZH in a month of Sundays.

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:08 | 939659 RobotTrader
    RobotTrader's picture

    Nice pop.

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 00:23 | 939879 Michael
    Michael's picture

    I can't wait till the Chinese housing bubble with its 65 million vacant properties bursts as it is guaranteed to.

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:16 | 939664 Yen Cross
    Yen Cross's picture

    I would be shorting all soft commodites, right now. I warned about the inflows.

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 23:16 | 939745 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    "would be"

    Uh-huh.  Yeah sure.  Get some conviction then call us back.

    Christ, we have Zimbabwe Ben broadcasting QE3, and you want to SHORT something.  Good luck with THAT.

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 23:37 | 939778 DoChenRollingBearing
    DoChenRollingBearing's picture

    Agree tmosley.  I think we have some time to enjoy easy money with "paper food" ETFs for a short while:

    DBA

    CORN

    Stay nimble though...

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 00:21 | 939872 chump666
    chump666's picture

    topped out markets a USD/natural disasters pushing up commodities, short signal there.  Bernanke has to contend with China, no in fact the US Treasury should be shitting panties, China will 100% start to sell UST to drive yields upward and the USD.

    Either that, China crashes HK and Shanghai property markets. 

     

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 05:07 | 940073 EscapeKey
    EscapeKey's picture

    10-year @ 3.69, 2-year at .79 this morning (GMT), both yields are up.

    Mon, 02/07/2011 - 05:18 | 940071 EscapeKey
    EscapeKey's picture

    We're not stopping you. Be sure to keep us updated on your situation.

    Why are people so busy telling other people how they should invest, without following through themselves?

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:18 | 939668 silver_serf
    silver_serf's picture

    Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning. -Winston Chruchill

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:27 | 939669 bob_dabolina
    bob_dabolina's picture

    Global warming, no inflation, infact negative inflation, economy is strong, unemployment is down, excessive supply, no shortages of anything, Dennis Kneale is straight.

    STFU, move along, there is nothing to see here, buy aapl to 900 p/share

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:20 | 939670 americanspirit
    americanspirit's picture

    Let's not forget Mexico. If corn behaves the way it looks like it will, the US is very soon going to have 50 million starving Mexicans right next door. Any guess what will happen next?

    Sun, 02/06/2011 - 22:24 | 939672 bob_dabolina
    bob_dabolina's picture

    shit. What are we going to do with the 50 million illegal mexians we already have in this country? Angry mexicans everywhere

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