Correlation Of S&P 500 Performance With Fed Monetization Activities Since Start Of QE

Tyler Durden's picture

The chart below requires no substantial commentary suffice it to say that since the launch of the Fed's Quantitative Easing, aka Monetization, program, the value of the Total Securities Held Outright on the Fed's Balance Sheet has increased by $917 billion- from $584 billion to $1.5 trillion. This has been accompanied by an almost linear increase in the S&P 500 Index, from 721 at QE announcement on March 18 to 1033 yesterday. This $917 billion in extra liquidity, instead of igniting an inflationary spark, as the QE program was designed to do, is now (metaphorically) sloshing around bank basements. As a reminder: the most recent reading of Total Deposit Reserves was... $886 billion dollars: An almost dollar for dollar match with the increase in Securities Held Outright of $917 billion. And instead of this excess money hitting broader aggregates such as M2 or MZM, it is held by the banks, who proceed to buy securities outright on their own, either Treasuries or Equities. Apply the proper "money multiplier" to get the monetary impact on the S&P 500, as a result of the banks not lending these excess reserves, and instead simply speculating with it, and you will likely get the increase in the market cap of the S&P since the launch of QE.

QED.

Source: H.4.1