Could a Blog Really Have Bested Wall Streets Best of the Best? Even the Firm That's Doing God's Work? Let's Tell Bloomberg...

I urge the mainstream media to take a look at more than just the traditional sources when they make these all star rankings…

Bloomberg Regports: Goldman No. 1 at Rating Financial Companies With 38% Right

Daniel Harris, a financial services analyst at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. [Clean cut, meticulous, ivy league, cookie cutter Goldmanite, Hamptoms in the summer, straight out of the Wall Street handbook - I get it] Attachment: Top European Analysts Attachment: Top Asian Analysts Attachment: Top U.S. Analysts Attachment: Top Analyst Firms

… Goldman Sachs and KBW did better than most at figuring out where markets were headed. Goldman is No. 1 and KBW No. 2 in the Bloomberg Markets ranking of the world’s best financial sector research firms. Goldman’s Harris is one of the top three analysts of financial service firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 2,500 Analysts [but no bloggers, which is exactly where this story went awry, IMHO ] The ranking is based on stock recommendations made by more than 2,500 analysts worldwide at 77 research firms and investment banks from January 2008 to July 2010. It looks at the analysts’ “buy,” “hold” and “sell” calls on shares of 90 of the largest banks, diversified financial service companies and insurers in the U.S., Europe and Asia with at least 20 analysts covering them. Even the best of the firms and individual stock pickers failed to accurately predict the fall and rise of most big financial stocks. Goldman Sachs’s analysts won their No. 1 rank by making 30 accurate calls on the 79 financial stocks they follow, or 38 percent, while KBW’s No. 2 post was based on 27 prescient calls on 78 stocks. … “It was a very difficult climate to make stock recommendations in,” says S.P. Kothari, a professor of management and deputy dean at Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Sloan School of Management in Cambridge. “First, you had to predict the downfall of the financial sector in 2008, which only very few people did. Then, you had to change your outlook to catch the recovery — all within a relatively short period of time.” [So true, at least sort of. The problem was not about changing your outlook, it was about going against the fundamentals to catch manipulated stock price action to capture bank stocks as they shot to the upside in an environment where they were doomed to simply crash back down. Of course, I don't really expect to hear a lot of that in the MSM, but it does peek its nose out every now and then] Looking for Ideas… Jason Brady, a managing director at Santa Fe, New Mexico- based Thornburg Investment Management, which oversees about $56 billion, says he doesn’t read analyst reports for picks on individual stocks. “It’s unusual to see original thinking in these reports, even though that’s what’s most valuable to me,” he says. “The ones who are different aren’t always right, but they’re frequently the most interesting and thoughtful.” [May I suggest you subscribe to BoomBustBlog, I am the antithesis of the sell side, and have nothing but crazy ideas - that is until a year  has gone past, and people say "hmmmm..."]

Yeah, I bet these guys get paid an awful lot of money for that as well. I hope Bloomberg’s editors dont’ forget us poor bloggers in the future comparisons. Uhh…. Not that I’m hating or anything (I definitely want to give these Goldman dudes credit where their due), but I think I may have just BLOWN THESE GUYS OUT OF WATER with damn near zero recognition. Come on mainstream media, it’s a new day and age and you should know by now there are other places to look for analysis other than the big banks that “Do God’s work”! Give the little man some luv! You know times are hard when you get featured as the best of the best with only a 38% success rate! Then again, and admittedly, these last few years were very hard – all jokes aside. Let me recast this Bloomberg article in BoomBust fashion.

Reggie Middleton, an entrepreneurial investor and independent blogger at BoomBustBlog.com. Ruggedly handsome, debonair, hyper-intelligent, good looking (that’s if you didn’t get that ruggedly handsome part a little earlier) offensively frank, outspoken brother from Brooklyn whose really not afraid to ruffle a few feathers… (it sounds as if Reggie Middleton wrote this part, doesn’t it ) Attachment: Blog vs. Broker Analysis – supplementary material (1.09 MB 2008-10-24 14:43:34). From the October 28th, 2008 post “Blog vs. Broker: Whom do you trust?” Reggie vs Wall Street As many may have surmised, my team and I have blown out the results of Wall Street’s biggest and most reknown name brand brokers. It wasn’t even close enough to fit in a small graph. JP Morgan failed to beat the S&P over the period that the blog has been in existence (since 9/07). The blog’s research returns are 132% above the BEST performing Wall Street Broker’s analyst recommendations. For the supporting data that goes behind this study, see Blog vs. Broker, whom do you trust!. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size. 5 Reggie vs Goldman Sachs Why didn’t Wall Street read my post on Lehman being a yellow lying lemon? See “Is Lehman really a lemming in disguise?” and realize that this post was made on February 20th, when Goldman Sachs had a recommended price of about $55 while this blog warned that Lehman may be done for. This very similar to when I warned about the potential demise of Bear Stearns in January, when the rest of the Street had a “buy” at about $130 per share. See Is this the Breaking of the Bear?. 7 We all know how both of these stories ended. Please click the graph to enlarge to print quality size. 8 If you look into my original post on performance (see “Performance!“), you can see when I recommended strong shorts on Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, both highly contrarian views at the beginning of the year, and both returned way over 100% and in the case of Goldman, is still pushing profits.

Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small
team of independent analysts to uncover truths seldom, if ever,
published in the mainstream media or Wall Street analysts reports.
Since the inception of his BoomBustBlog in September of 2007, he has
established an outstanding track record, including but not limited to the call of….

1. The housing market crash in September of 2007, and a big bear hug on nearly all of the home builders that BoomBustBlog exclusively caught hiding debt off balance sheet: Correction, and further thoughts on the topic and How Far Will US Home Prices Drop?
2. The collapse of Bear Stearns in January 2008 (2
   months before Bear Stearns fell, while trading in the $180s and still
   had buy ratings from the sell side and investment grade AA or better
   from the ratings agencies): Is this the Breaking of the Bear?
3. The warning of Lehman Brothers (May 2008): It appears that I should have dug deeper into Lehman!
4. The fall of commercial real estate in general (September of 2007) and the collapse of General Growth Properties [nation's 2nd largest mall owner] in particular (November 2007): BoomBustBlog.com’s answer to GGP’s latest press release and Another GGP update coming… (among over 700 pages of analysis, review the January 2008 archives or search for “GGP” for more research).
5. The collapse of state and municipal finances, with California in particular (May 2008): Municipal bond market and the securitization crisis – part 2
6. The collapse of the regional banks (32 of them, actually) in May 2008: As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo! as well as the fall of Countrywide and Washington Mutual
7. The collapse of the monoline insurers, Ambac and MBIA in late 2007 & 2008: A Super Scary Halloween Tale of 104 Basis Points Pt I & II, by Reggie Middleton, Welcome to the World of Dr. FrankenFinance! and Ambac is Effectively Insolvent & Will See More than $8 Billion of Losses with Just a $2.26 Billion, s well as the weakening share price of Assured Guaranty.
   
8. The overvaluation of Goldman Sachs from June 2008 to present
   – Mr. Middleton was THE ONLY ONE that he knows of that was bearish on
   this company, and for the right reasons): “Can
   You Believe There Are Still Analysts Arguing How Undervalued
   Goldman Sachs Is? Those July 150 Puts Say Otherwise, Let’s Take a
   Look”, “When the Patina Fades… The Rise and Fall of Goldman Sachs???“and Reggie Middleton vs Goldman Sachs, Round 2)
9. The ENTIRE Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis (potentially soon to be the Global Sovereign Debt Crisis) starting in January of 2009 and explicit detail as of January 2010: The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis
10. He warned of the European banks in Greece, Ireland, Italy, and Germany – see The Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis
11. Ireland austerity and the disguised sink hole of debt and non-performing assets that is the Irish banking system:
    I Suggest Those That Dislike Hearing “I Told You So” Divest from
    Western and Southern European Debt, It’ll Get Worse Before It Get’s
    Better!
12. The mobile computing paradigm shift, May 2010: More on the Creatively Destructive Pace of Technology Innovation and the Paradigm Shift known as the Mobile Computing Wars! »

Of course, everything came out with rose petals and organic perfume
for Mr. Middleton. Being a fundamental investor with a global macro
bent, and even anticipating  a strong rally in the second quarter of
2009 which he publicly called, he was still nonetheless blindsided by
the total and unequivocal spike in all assets over the next three
quarters as correlations between asset classes crept towards 1 and his
favorite tools – simple arithmetic, common sense and fundamental
analysis were thrown to the wolves. His very high three digit returns
were forced to disgorge nearly 40% of their profits. See 2009 Year End Note to BoomBustBlog Readers and Subscribers
for his year end letter to his readers and subscribers (what was
tantamount to an apology for what he considered subpar performance for 3
quarters in a row), and feel free to peruse the comment section as
well.

Alas, 2010 saw some return to the basics (albeit a not full one) as
reality started to reassert itself  in Europe, just as he anticipated in
2009; reality and the truth started to catch up with the US banking
system (as he has been alleging all along, watch out JPM, GS, et al.),
and the mobile technology wars pan out exactly as he has predicted
(RIMM down, Google up!, Apple facing margin pressure momentarily…)

Whenever anyone in the mainstream media wants to do a
comparison between THIS blogger and any of the banks over any realistic
stretch of the time (I don’t rate myself quarter by quarter or even
year by year, so let’s make the comparison investor centric and not
based on bonus horizons), just contact me. I’m ready and willing!

Comments

[hbjork1]

Reggie, 

Because there are only 24 hours in everbody's day and it is obvious that there is a heck of a lot of work in your analysis, I have to say you must have a hard working staff as well.

LE: The owners with a larger view that don't compromise their principals do win in the long run. My favorate remains, Sam Walton because I bought my little balsa wood model airplane kits in his very first store and know the truth through a relatives that knew them. 

The stuff that is published is true.  He was forced out by P.K. Holmes who dressed like a Goldman Exec and owned many of the buildings on "Front Street" including Walton's rental.  Walton, who had two little boys to support was burned by that experience because he didn't know whether he could make a living up in "the hills". 

Until the end of his life, his favorate recreation was to go bird hunting in his pickup with his often dirty bird dog in the back. 

During the 70's my relative(by marriage) doing contract legal work for them, described the Wal Mart corporate offices in Bentonville as an old building with old carpet down an aisleway, cubicals on either side.  Waltons office was the big cubical on the end.  Around 1990+/-, an acquaintence here in MI, who was a K-Mart attorney stated that K-Mart had 23 corporate attorneys.  Walmart had 7.

The work you and your people did produced the results you have gotten. 

Now decades ago, when an experiment in the lab would fail, someone would inevitably say "Mother nature is a bitch.".  My response was always, "Mother nature is not a bitch but she is a jealous mistress.  If you would seek her favors, you must pay absolute attention to her.  

If the work isn't done, it isn't done.

Best of luck! (Luck also helps.)

[Biff Malibu]

Whoa Whoa Whoa!  Hold on here guys, let's not forget what we truly have here.  I for one love being part of the 'Underground', the 'Resistance', as it is.  I do NOT WANT ZeroHedge or Reggie's Boom Bust Blog to go mainstream.  Once it goes commercial, they lose their independence and their edge.  I love the fact that I can get on here any hour of the day, see what the market is doing, and then when it has no correlation to what the mainstream media is reporting I go over to ZH or Reggie's site, or a few others and then I know, "Oh THAT's what's going on..."  It pisses me off that before we had these resources we were at the mercy of whatever bloomberg, marketwatch, reuters, or the other MSM sources reported and they all reported the same damn thing, all controlled by the banks.  Now we have a handful of very intelligent men and women (where is Marla anyway) who have shared their knowledge with the rest of us.  And only a relative handful of us take the time to read and study it. 

Biff

[onlooker]

Given that you may have much less inside information than Goldman,

YOUR ARE HEREBY AWARDED the

We are DAMNED PROUD OF YOU GOLD STAR as one of the Zero Hedge men(and however one includes the girls) of the year award. I think I have a Walmart discount coupon im gonna send you.

i know it is not a biggie, but it is a start. And yes you are appreciated by the unwashed.

[yabyum]

Reggie love your work. Goldman=eyes wide shut!

[Widowmaker]

Reggie, the entire world knows that Goldman is a dead fetus.

Masters of nothing more than incompetence and self-preservation on the backs of the public and hand-holding by government.

A bunch of posers with other people's fake money trying to buy respect for fraud and epic failure.

One can find more integrity from drunks at a county jail than sold out fags past and present from Goldman.

You beating them should come as no surprise. 

[trader95]

Goldman, like the rest of wall street will take advantage of any system the Gov't puts in place. They had record profits in 09 Why?

Investment Banking? Don't think so.

Trading Profits!!!!!

They took Gov't money and propped up the mkt's.

Real hard to do, Free money and a mkt that just got cut in half

Yeah, real geniuses

[gookempucky]

Reggie--great stuff as usual

As for the  "Ruggedly handsome, debonair, hyper-intelligent, good looking" part- ahhh not sure about that-OK time for an extreme makeover.

Blue bowtie

Round proffessor type spectacles

A little charcoal ash on the temple hair

Keds tennis shoes and worn out levis

Old camelhair sport coat

OR

Scrap the tie and just a Tshirt that says---

Front----THE WORLD ENDS MATHEMATICALLY

Back-----IT ALL ADDS UP

All joking aside Reg I will leave you with this.

Most men cannot express themselves outside of their field of competency and are not willing to free themselves from the entanglements in the realm of false habits and concepts, hence not competent in their own field.

Thanks for being competent

[Downtoolong]

Goldman No. 1 at Rating Financial Companies With 38% Right

That's even more pathetic when you consider Goldman has the ability to move markets in favor of their analysis.  

And maybe that explains it, since they also have the ability to move markets against their analysis, and profit off people who follow it.

[Bob]

Funny, Reg.  Whaddya know, you got no respect from the dumb ass mouthpieces of TPTB.

But, hey, it's not how much respect you get, but who you get it from that matters, bro.

You're fully appreciated where it really matters. 

[Mad Mad Woman]

All hail Reggie and his team!!

[Kina]

Reggie - worth his weight in silver.

[nmewn]

Chanting...Reggie!...Reggie!...Reggie!

Ruggedly handsome, debonair, hyper-intelligent, good looking (that’s if you didn’t get that ruggedly handsome part a little earlier) offensively frank, outspoken brother from Brooklyn whose really not afraid to ruffle a few feathers… (it sounds as if Reggie Middleton wrote this part, doesn’t it )

It ain't braggin when you can do it bruh!

Kudos.

[SamuelMaverick]

GO REGGIE!!!!!

[Rick64]

 Reggie,

  So are you implying that the banking sector and or the government is intentionally slowing down the foreclosure process to buy some time in hopes the market stabalizes or rebounds ? Is the robo-signing problem part of the plan ? While Obama poses as a saviour to the common man while battling the congress to win support.  I haven't heard a whole lot of complaining from the banks on the foreclosure fraud. Anyway great job as usual.

[Bob]

.

[Bob]

.

[Bob]

The banks have been virtually silent on the foreclosure fraud debacle because they have to pretend they did not know, only slowly dribbling out little bits and pieces as they pretend to learn about it as the media picks it up.  They're covering their asses bigtime. 

I am sure, however, they're talking plenty behind the scenes.  I wonder what their lobbyists are cooking up?

[Widowmaker]

Correct, which is why Wells Fraudgo isn't halting their processes.

Get ready for free houses, that's what is being cooked up.   How to reward failure (as usual).

[MarketFox]

RM....

You should set up your own hedge fund....

Money/media  WILL FOLLOW PERFORMANCE....

[Reggie Middleton]

I'm not really big on money and media. I have made and lost plenty. I'm much more of a family man, to be honest. Time with my kids is my fortune!

I actually spent a lot of money setting up hedge fund structures (you know those big brand name, midtown Manhattan firms know how to charge), then changed my mind as I saw fund managers who made their clients good money get their funds pulled becase:

1. they had a bad few quarters
2. or they did well all the way through the mess and they were the only source of liquidity for guys that needed money for margin calls and Florida real estate.

Either way, I wasn't willing to go through that at the time. The fund structures and papers are still sitting around if they're needed, though. I'm actually thinking about it.

On that note, my daughter is calling me to make her breakfast...

[Dolar in a vortex]

Hedge, smedge, don't restrict the perception (expectations?) of others with words.

[Leo Kolivakis]

Reggie,

Trust me, screw setting up a hedge fund. Trade on your own. And you pinned it with this comment:

''Time with my kids is my fortune!''

Priceless!

[Mercury]

Goldman's track record is actually 62% "right" once you understand how to interpert their recommendations.

[Reggie Middleton]

Now, THAT is funny!!!

[Mercury]

Reggie, you're right though (and right a lot).  Maybe if you promoted yourself under the classier and more respectable title of "newsletter author" like Jim Grant (but without the bow tie) you'd show up on the MSM radar a bit more. Their loss though and ZH's gain.

BUT (and I'm not making an accusation here just a supposition) to what extent is it possible that Diversity politics are playing a role here?  I'm talking about MSM face time here (which you may not actually care about) as opposed to MSM recognition of bloggers and non-institutional market analysts.

Whatever any one person may think about the wisdom of such things I think it's safe to say that every large company in America at least toes the line on 'Diversity' with a capital 'D' and more often than not, they are pretty pro-active about it.  So... here's this clean-cut, dashing and articulate black guy in an industry not exactly famous for breeding African-American superstars.  Furthermore (and most importantly) he (Reggie) is a demonstrably excellent analyst with a truly impressive track record forecasting big, high impact developments in the capital markets.  And, he's a "little guy" not affiliated with any big Street firm who bucks conventional wisdom and makes you money pretty much every time he opens his mouth. I mean, what's not to love from a big media exposure point of view?  Hey, when's the movie coming out?

Well, is it possible that the MSM doesn't want the guy who represents a Diversity home run  to also be the guy who is a bit of a wet blanket, who doesn't always cheerlead for the market, Administration policies or near-term prospects for the American economy in general??  Is the MSM afraid that they'll be accused of digging up some Alan Keynes type, anti-progressive shill who isn't appropriately representitive enough in his views?  Have you ever gotten this impression Reggie or am I going off the deep end here?  I'm sure the big reason big-time media superstardom has thus far eluded you is that you're just a no-account blogger who's ilk represent an ongoing threat to MSM authority and credence.  But I'd like to see you on the tube more (and other, value-adding, non-cheerleaders) and I'm just trying to connect some less obvious dots as to why this might not be happening.

Respectfully Yours etc.  M.

[LowProfile]

I don't think it's racial.  Most of "them" are fine with black folks, as long as they are from moneyed interests (one of "them") or are a 'useful idiot'.

Reggie isn't either, he's a truth-teller.  And the elite doesn't want the truth told, and the people (for the most part) don't want it either.  So they ignore him.  For now.

There's also the issue that what he has to say contradicts the "we'll muddle through this somehow" meme.  Because clearly, we aren't...And there's no "Plan B".

I believe Mr. Middleton will emerge, after all the smoke and rubble is cleared and the rebuilding has commenced, as one of the giants in the field of financial analysis.

[French Frog]

++++

[Sam Clemons]

Haha, +62*10^9

[Mercury]

...or even interpret (Sorry, only on second cup)