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Countdown To A Libyan Military Coup As Revolutionary Half-life Plunges
Just as the military is now the defacto (and indefinite) ruler in Egypt following what was a revolution-cum-coup, it appears that Libya is poised to repeat in the same footsteps. One thing to note is the increasingly shorter halflife of Maghrebian revolutions: Tunisia took more than a month, Egypt took 18 days, Libya is in its 6th day, and all signs point to a rapidly approaching endgame in which the military will end up with control. Hopefully they know the dynamics of oil cartel game theory behavior. In the meantime, here is Stratfor's latest geopolitical outlook on Libya following earlier reports that the airforce has started firing on military installations (and civilians) to prevent them from falling into protesters' hands.
From Stratfor:
Unrest and the Libyan Military
Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has ordered the Libyan air force to
fire on military installations in Libya, according to what the BBC has
characterized as a reliable source. Al Jazeera has suggested that air
force fighters have opened fire on crowds of protesters.?
Though the latter would be particularly draconian, the more important
question is whether these signs reflect a split within the regime and
Gadhafi using military force to crush opposition to his regime emerging
from the military or other security forces. Similar reports of the
Libyan navy firing on targets onshore also are emerging, as well as
reports that Gadhafi has given execution orders to soldiers who have
refused to fire on Libyan protesters.
The application of conventional weaponry is noteworthy and will
warrant scrutiny — particularly in terms of the targets of the attacks
and the rationale behind them. The use of these weapons is more
appropriate for other armed entities rather than unarmed protesters.
Libyan troops are good at instilling fear, but not good at stabilizing a
situation, so the military may not be able to get in on the ground due
to lost capability.
The situation remains opaque, but these latest developments combined
with recent reports of defections of military units to the
demonstrators’ side continue to draw STRATFOR’s attention to the
possibility that the regime is fracturing.
And another perspective on the Libyan crisis from Stratfor analyst Reva Bhalla:
Libya is facing its biggest internal crisis to date with reports trickling out of the country indicating that unrest is now spreading to the capital of Tripoli. Government buildings are being attacked, prisons are being broken into and energy firms like BP are evacuating their personnel.
The ability of the Libyan regime to hold itself together depends on two key factors: the loyalty of the tribes and the loyalty the army to the regime. Now those are the two factors that are the most in flux and the threat of civil war is thus very real.
Late last night, one of Gadhafi sons Seif al-Islam gave a long, rambling and impromptu speech in which he said that Libya is not another Egypt or Tunisia and that his father Moammar Gadhafi, who has ruled the country for more than four decades, is not another Ben Ali are Mubarak. In other words, Seif al-Islam was saying that the military is not about to drop the regime’s leader and Gadhafi was not about to flee the country. But Seif al-Islam has long been at odds with the military old guard of the regime and thus he can’t be seen as the one to necessarily hold the army together. Saif al-Islam has long avoided the political spotlight preferring to use his charity organization to push for ideas on political, social and economic reforms, which he saw as the key to the long-term survivability of the regime.
For a long time, however, Seif al-Islam and his allies like the National Oil Company Chairman Shokri Ghanem have been pushed against a wall by the military old guard, which is led by his brother Mutassim, the national security advisor who has the trust of many within the army elite. Now with the country in crisis, Seif al-Islam is trying to present himself as the untarnished face of the regime, but with reports of unrest now spreading to the capitol of Tripoli, it seems as though many Libyans just view Seif al-Islam as another Gadhafi that needs to be ousted.
The problem with that scenario is that there is no real alternative to the Gadhafi regime that has ruled for more than four decades. This is not a situation like Egypt or even Tunisia where the Army as an institution is in a position to step in and seize control of the situation. In fact there are already signs of the Army splitting, with reports of army defections in the East, where the regime has had a lot of trouble holding onto support in the past and with reports of even the army chief being placed under house arrest. If the regime can not pull the loyalty the army, then power in the country falls to the tribes, many of which have already reportedly been turning on the regime in the past couple days. Seif al-Islam specifically warned in his speech that the fall of the regime could lead to civil war. Given how serious the situation has become and given the signs of the army splitting, that is a threat should be taken very seriously.
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Thank God the POTUS and his crew are giving clear and unambiguous clues as to what the US will or will not do.
Obama was selected by the elites because he would not lead under his own convictions, a puppet if you will.
+666
relative strength in the futures:
dow -77 only
sp -13
naz -28
bulls are going to say look how little relative effect global violence has on multi-national (Dow) corporations
ps---i thought crisis like these sent the futures locked limit down--must be the new New
If they close this thing green tomorrow, whatever few bears are still left in this rigged casino will finally throw in the towel. It's a bulls market only, so TheBernank has decreed, so it shall be done.
Not for long.
"not for long"
Man, the only way the paper market will turn is with a power failure at the FRBNY, and they've got a lot more generation backup and diesel stored up than you'd think. This market is the last chance Texaco for the way things are, and it's not going to turn until there's no reason for it to keep holding on. When that happens, you will not want to be here, if here is anywhere in the USA.
This sh!t in the middle east is shaking my faith in the Illuminati. These fuc*ers are supposed to have things well in hand, but I suspect they've been living in the same tetraethyl lead-coated world as everyone else, and the current generation of 'em might not be up for it.
heya thorny + know what yer sayin, .....but 'they' dont have things in hand?.....tis always a bad thing to think, let alone say. there is no 'over' .....whatever is going on in the middle east in general is a living thing at this point, controlled/instigated or not......re-read yer own statement in six months and see what you say then......these cocknecks are good at what they do......never forget, right?
2 x Libyan Jet Fighters & Fighter Pilots Defect and Fly to Malta after being ordered to bomb civilians:
http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE71K23020110221
Interestig side note on the 23rd, wednesday, we will have 666 days until dec 21st, 2012. You can't make that kinda chit up.
oh and nice avatar rag.
"his own convictions"?
I'm extremely curious as to what they would be, since I haven't seen any evidence of any convictions on his part.
Has anyone pointed out to him that the happy medium is analogous to a flatline on a heart monitor?
You can be on the side of the scab, or on the side of the wound, but not both.
In what game does an intelligent player give "clear and unambiguous clues" about his intentions?
in marriages that lead to divorce.
In any game played with a partner or teammates. Unambiguous communication between allies is FAR more important than the advantage gained by opponents in predicting your moves. You might read up on bidding in contract bridge as a clear exmaple.
One useful thing the US could do with those carriers is to propose and implement a UN sanctioned no-fly zone, this would at least stop the airforce from killing their own people.
Again the Arab League is keeping a low profile.
By the way, there's about 1 million Egyptians in Libya who are trying to get out.
Even the Chinese has joined the international outcry against the regime.
Interesting times.
2 pilots just defected to malta...I guess they didnt want to come back after being ordered to kill thier cousins to be executed. nice.
www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com
Smart. Anyone who shoots at protesters from an aircraft deserves what they get.
When it happens in the US, they'll be called enemy non-combatants.
Some will, others will be called guerrilla fighters, and still others will be called road pizza.
Long live the "freedom fighters!"
now that is just a cowardly, asshole junk.
+1 on my behalf
turn out the lights
Turn out the lights and I'll glow. To the extreme I rock a mike like a vandal, light up a stage and wax a chump like a candle.
-Vanilla Ice
omg
I find it hilarious that as each ME domino falls, Obama declares he's looking for democracy to flourish. Why wasn't he looking yesterday? We all know the answer.....don't we?
Careful Obama or you might get tangled up in your own puppet strings.
Might?
Now you're being as nice as me Cog.
Momma always told me that if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all. Since that would leave me a mute I try to compromise. :>)
Thanks for one of those big words I had to look up ;)
how does one compromise with 'nice'? Never been able to figure this out! - Ned
According to Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck etc. all this unrest is at least partly due to Obama refusing to support the despot regimes.
So which is it...Obama is for democracy or not? If you say "not", please explain his continuing committments to Iraq and Afghanistan.
Obama is whatever he is told to be. Don't expect consistency if he serves different masters.
I'm not seeing the inconsistency. On the contrary, I think it's the criticism that has shifted while Obama has been steadfast.
Once upon a time Obama was meddling too much. Now he is not meddling enough. Or vice versa, depending on whether you watch MSNBC or Faux News.
Trying to make sense out of anything "Rush and Glenn" have to say naturally causes a severe state of confusion... don't panic, try not to think, let it go... I tried it a few times man and believe me, it goes away, just hang on for a couple of hours... try chanting "Fox Lies" until it passes.
To be honest, arguing what is said about Obama is par with celebrity small talk to which I have below zero interest. What he reads from the teleprompter might be important; what is said about it, hardly.
Of course our Dear Leader is for 'Democracy'.
Our Dear Leader was against commitment to Iraq, Gitmo, but thought that the 'smart' war was in the Afghan. and McC was the warrior-monk-general. until he wasn't. Then send in ...
all y'all 'TeamAmerica' dudes well, ya better gear up for a rough and unexpected ride. and, well, when you get into trouble, well, 'The Secretary Will Disavow any Knowledge of Your Actions."
CD,
Get ready for the CYA report leak to NYT.
The New York Times will be the first to report that 18-page classified report Obama ordered last August, that identified likely flash-points of potential unrest, including Egypt (also included Libya).
CBS should start production on Survivor Libya. The entire cast might get shis-ka-bob'd during first tribal council.
LOL!!
bla bla bla
the situation is unclear
bla bla bla
Hardly. I'm batting 1,000 so far
NAY, "unsustainable"
'cuz most of the language recipients can't understand what the 'status quo' thing that o keeps prattling about really is. do you?
OT: Chavez Currency Market Takeover Spurs Bank Lines for Dollars
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKAbqPKpwacI&pos=11
What's the formula. As 2011 approaches November change goes to infinity.
Interesting to see Libya splitting into tribes. Kinda like the US splitting into states. I live in Texas, and we have a treaty with the US that says that we can withdraw from the union at will. This treaty provision has been taken to court and tested for its strength by generations of lawyers - my father-in-law was one of them. They have wanted to ensure that if the time ever came, the Republic of Texas could assert its treaty rights and become an independent entity.
Perhaps this is the face of the coming American revolution. Black Swan anybody?
Too bad the United States does not recognize that supposed "right". Maybe your brother-in-law should stick to chasing ambulances.
"The price of sovereignty is the capacity for self-defence" -- Will Durant
+1. I'm a proud Texan. but the ignorance of some of my "countrymen" is astounding and shameful.
The same holds true for my countrymen in the Republic of California.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjOIFGrYtaE
Ignorance is curable, stupidity not so much - nmewn
Yeah, there were a bunch of states that thought that way too.
Just google "america 1860s".
The USA is like the mob. Once you are in, you are always in.
pods
Until the U.S.A. ruled by Obama/Washington D.C./Federal Reserve cabal totally fails.
Then it's every state and every man for himself.
"Interesting to see Libya splitting into tribes."
Incorrect. Not two.
Do you want everything to be a duality?
"Kinda like the US splitting into states."
Are there Two States in America?
Perhaps, Republicans and Democrats?
Amendment 10.
"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."
How many States are there? Two?
"I live in Texas, and we have a treaty with the US that says that we can withdraw from the union at will"
You don't have a Treaty.
You have a Federation of Independent Republics.
I suggest you use that.
The Federation wants to destroy 1,2 and 10.
After which you become slave.
"I live in Texas, and we have a treaty with the US that says that we can withdraw from the union at will."
NO we F'ing do NOT. I live in Texas too. The State of Texas requires us all to take classes in Texas History and yet people continue to sleep through it and perpetuate this bullshit.
Correction.
Apologies AnericanSprit.
Must have had Duality on my mind.
Did you ever get those Bullfrogs on your mind?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-0-S_0QYhY
"Each state retains its sovereignty, freedom, and independence, and every power, jurisdiction, and right, which is not by this Confederation expressly delegated to the United States, in Congress assembled."
Shame it didn’t happen.
Going forward there will be increasing conflict between forces representing the status quo under new packaging, and forces demanding change. There will be a conflict over allocating oil revenues and food subsidies. What we've seen so far in Tunisia, Egypt and maybe Libya is only round one. More conflict is coming.
Real nice, blowing yourself up to keep power.
This is when the masks fall from the sociopaths' faces. This is how far they will go to keep grasp on power. Don't think the people "in charge" here won't do the same? Or worse, we have a lot more scary weapons that can be unleashed. I fear the biological, chemical and pharmaceutical ones most - easier plausible deniability.
Been a while Kali. Shame it's this topic. Pax
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/02/pentagon-looks-to-breed-immortal...
Meanwhile ..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cPWEhDHXZy4
Yes a cryin shame. Good to "see" you too.
Look for increasing amounts of research money being diverted to 'Sudden Despot Coma Syndrome'
BTFD you FI !!!!
Why are folks forgetting Kurdistan as another transmission mechanism to Iran? Then with that domino goes the situation in some notable, but largely unknown (in the US) nations in the Central Asian region. Folks seem to have forgotten about Kyrgyzstan already. Before we see south Asian nation like Bangladesh go we may well see an East/Southeast Asian nation go over food, unemployment and the rest of the usual suspects. As far as Afghanistan goes, Karzai is barely mayor of Kabul. Now then, if protests spread in the public sector in the US ad the US reduced in footprint in Afghanistan then there may well be an issue with a repeat of the Babrak Karmal situation. Enough of the transmission to Iran & Asia.
Elsewhere, I suspect many folks have forgotten how truly precarious the situations are in Venezuela and Nigeria. For some reason folks keep wanting to look eastward. Morocco will go before the core ME Monarchies giving rise to what some folks within the pro-democracy movements in North Africa are calling the emerging Arab Democratic Union.
Ghadafi blowing his own country apart? Fuck this is bitchn'!
where the hell are the TV cameras?
This sounds way better than NBA for sure.
All wire and wireless communication out of the country had been cuttoff.
Top story on MSNBC is 'who will be invited to royal wedding'? I expected to turn TV on and see parts of the world burning? WTF? I guess the American public will wonder whats going on in the world when they hit the gas station. O'Bommy could blame it on Wisconson republicans.
Sadly, the populace is aware of whats going on/coming, about as much as Bagdad Bob was about the US troop presence outside his hotel.
What happened to Qaddafi's hot babe group of bodyguards?
I think they are "getting out of Dodge".
As much Gold as they can carry.
Why do you think the keep Qaddafi, his charmiong personality or his ability to pack mule?
In English please?
He can carry the coin for them which makes the trade.
Article (in German) entitled, "Demonic dollar inspire the Arab revolution"....those responsible are in Washington....
http://www.welt.de/finanzen/geldanlage/article12609909/Daemonische-Dolla...
As it will be the imposition of Basil III on the Goldman like domestic banking industry, especially the Lansesbanks, that will bring some reality back to the German populace that they have been exporters of more than cars
Interesting that the protesters are waving and planting the old monarchy or "Kingdom of Libya" flag from 1969 before the Gaddafi's revolution:
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/02/21/138622.html
This shares many characteristics of a zombie outbreak.
+1
The world seems to be unusually unstable these days. You'll notice only protest and revolutions in places where it's warm. It's hard to riot in a parka freezing your butt off. Maybe an interesting summer in the US and Europe. Cuts have to be made and people don't want their goodies cut.
Heck if you can college students in Wisconsin to protest such that their teachers don't have to contribute to their health care benefits or their pensions, you can get young people to protest pretty much anything. Useful idiots per Lenon.
You discredit the avatar with (Faux News) spin...
It's about union busting (nothing else) on orders from the Tea Party (Koch Brothers) masters... and, with the limited "reduce spending" mandate they have, it's a serious over reach.
What happened in Tunisia,Libya,and Egypt made me wonder what would ahppen over here in the States during a major crisis(Economic collapse,social unrest etc). In any shtf scenario cops will be overwhelmed rather quickly. There will be mass desertion in the ranks in LEO. There are gangs who are more armed then the police. Martial law is also impossible to have in the states. Even if the military manages to acquire all 1.5 million reserves and utilize 1 million of it's total 1.5 million personnel in the Navy, Army, Marines, Air Force and Coast Guard, it would struggle to control 308-310 million citizens in a land mass of 9,161,966 sq km. American law enforcement numbers are not as strong as some of you think. According to the BLS (bureau of Labor Statistics), there were only 883,600 law enforcement personnel in 2008. And that was before the financial collapse and subsequent layoffs in local departments across the nation. The number included detectives, managers, police and sheriff's patrol officers.
So when you add the 2,500,000 soldiers and the 883,000 law enforcement, you have a force of 3.3 million agents. This is less than one percent of America's highly-armed population. Most of these agents will be working logistics and support for handling prisoners, transportation, intelligence and supply. But this isn't even the biggest problem.
The police are used to dealing with people who are afraid of them and have something to lose. In a collapse scenario, the rioters will lack both characteristics. And the military will be poorly suited to police a populace that is desperation for resources. If the soldiers became violent against the population, they could divide the armed forces and spark a civil war. It would be very difficult for the U.S. military to successfully implement martial law throughout the entire country at any given time. This would mean that they would have to secure hundred of thousands of neighborhoods, while securing all major airports, power stations, communication towers, water facilities, nuclear power plants, military bases, food distribution center, grocery stores, government official buildings and highways while keeping everyone in their homes after 6pm.
Bringing in foreign troops would problematic, because if the U.S. is in a panic, wouldn't the other countries that are so heavily tied to America also have their own problems. Plus, we know how well foreign occupations went in Afghanistan, Vietnam and Iraq. So if some shit wnet down like what happened in Libya the nation would fragment into factions. It would Yugoslavia redux.
Zombies.
Freedom zombies.
I thought it would have been Food Zombies.
When this comes looking for food will become the fulltime unpaid occupation of most inhabitants.Ah well could be worse you could end up being a troll on ZH,the lowest form of Bank paid stooge scum.
"When this comes looking for food will become the fulltime unpaid occupation"
Whne this comes there won't be any food.
Supply chain?
Interesting - looks like someone is taking debka.com offline. For the past half hour I've been getting 502 Bad Gateway messages and as I keep trying to click through I occasionally get the main page but when I try to follow the lead story on Libya I get the old 502 again.
Sure hope Tyler and crew are prepared for this kind of obvious attack. Not comparing Debka and ZH - ZH is MUCH more dangerous to TPTB and of course much more credible. But Debka definitely has its place as long as you accept that it is a propaganda site.
"Tunisia took more than a month, Egypt took 18 days, Libya is in its 6th day"
It's trending, at that rate we will soon be able to have a revolution for lunch. Who would the "twits" be then?
Isn't it funny that all these rulers began their lifetime careers as "revolutionaries" seeking to overthrow the established government? And when they are established ...?
For Ghadafi to fire into the crowd with jets isn't because of the crowd but the military going over to the opposition. Because if the military was behind 100%, they would be fighting the crowds right now, but they aren't. The country is coming apart and its a matter of hours if not a few days before we hear about Ghadafi and his sons leaving the country.