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Coxe Advisors Discusses A Fizzling Recovery, And Explains Why The Market Is Essentially Unchanged For Over A Year
The ever insightful Don Coxe of Coxe Advisors has released a transcript of his recent discussion on why the rally is fizzling. Aside from everything else, which as usual is spot on and must read, any paper that has the following statement: "In the New York Times today, Paul Krugman got into one of his splenetic rages but he is a terrific and articulate exemplar of the post-Keynesian (that claims to be Keynesian) school, which basically doesn’t believe that government deficits are bad, (they are good) and paying for things in the next generation or the generations after it is okay where it to get us out of what we are in now, so as far as he’s concerned, stimulus has to be done by increasing government deficits" is worth its weight on tungsten. Coxe also does the best summary of why the market has is barely changed both YTD and on a 1 Year basis: "We have a buildup in cash (in print money that is) and we have a buildup in gold, and beyond that there’s not much going on. That’s why the S&P is up about 1% year over year and it’s hardly of the kind of environment that’s going to get those investors who left the stock market after the Flash Crash, saying “We don’t believe the market is any realistic place for ordinary individuals anymore”— this is not going to get them running back in to buy stocks." But don't believe him- after all, there are thousands of paid for newsletters and momentum models, that promise they can time each and every up and downtick, and will certainly make you a trillionaire if not a billionaire (sic).
For all those who would rather save their money, here are some always terrific insights from Don Coxe:
h/t Chips4Pips
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I just listened to the most recent cc where he warns of a currency crisis danger.
His slant is conservative which is fine, but in my opinion his interjecting of political opinions put a damper on the message sometimes.
Agreed. He's intelligent and insightful but at times his political and environmental conservatism give pause. No idea why, but I've wondered if his wife gives him a hard time for the environmental rants.
That's a good thing because individual investors should have *NEVER* put a lion's share of their assets into equities in the first place. The less retail investors have in stocks and other assets betting on capital apprecation rather than income generation the better.
Until about now, because the bond market is getting a little toppy at this point.
Solars baby, keep buying solars!
Tyler,
I've got a serious question about silver.
I've been looking into buying extra silver 1oz coins (no bars)
But the prices are so different country by country.
What it all comes about is this:
If I buy the Silver panda 1oz 999.9 straight from the chinese mint, I pay for 1000 coins 15780$ (I get a 15% discount starting from 100 coins)
If I buy 1000 Canadian Silver maple 999.9 leaf I pay 23.132$, same for silver eagles.
HOW COME there is such a big price difference?!
I'm planning on buying 50 panda's and letting them being checked out, but I think they are all 999.9 because from all three I get a certificate.
How come I can buy silver in China on the cheap (WITH FREE SECURED TRANSPORT!) and American is so expensive (+160$ secured transport)?
I did some calculations and the coins 32.15 coins cost as much a 1000gr silver bar.
Is there something going on with the silver market?
I would not buy any coinage from China... period.
They are counterfeiting everything that won't move.
If you want to take the chance that the coins are from the Chinese Mint then fine, take the discount. At under $16 per ounce -- including shipping international for a 62 pound box thrown in?
Some classic U. S. Morgan dollars are being counterfeited using the same silver content as the original coin. Since there is such a large numismatic premium the silver is a minor cost to manufacture.
Buy from authorized U. S. Mint distributors or ANA or PNG dealers.
You can buy from other sources as I do, but you have to know and trust the source and be able to test your own coinage.
Unless you plan to take your coins abroad to use in commerce why would you not want American Silver Eagles? The premium will disappear once silver has reached a true market price plateau. A dollar or two today will pay off handsomely in the fungibility in the future.
I buy straight from the mint, so no counterfeit is think.
I have a standard liquid gold and silver testing kit, but nothing for detailed purity.
But I'm going to let them being checked out at a coin store.
I'm also a coin collector and do see the difference on Liberty coins. I know about the fake silver Morgan and Liberty seated coins. These are not made out of silver but Nickel with 5% silver (called silver copper). They cost 1300$ for a carton of 1000 coins and you can spot them with the CC markings. I can even give you a address to order those :) I also collect counterfeit coins, but only antiques like the 1$ silver indian coins...
Then the price difference is already known by you. You are attracted by the "bargain".
You'll be on your own with that one!
BTW, I didn't mean to usurp Tyler's reply should he decide to jump in.
SD,
Buying a "known quantity" when dealing with Eagles or Maples are worth the premium. Silver is so easy to manipulate vs gold, its hard to justify the 5% or 10% discount to try to get more unless you are talking about thousands of ounces. Not having a set of parameters to compare "other" coins is discerning to me. I have some trade dollars that are counterfeit that I inherited, that to look at, would be hard to challenge without a comparative coin and a gram scale. They are made of silver, but lack 1.5 grams. I REALY love the big green and yellow boxes that the US and Canadian mint coins come in, they have an aura of authenticity that I cant get with "other" minted silver ounces. There is nothing like a big old bag of quarters or halfs though, the history there is worth it, and the premium is nil.
Cheap real morgan silver dollars from mint :
http://www.google.nl/imgres?imgurl=http://bullion.nwtmint.com/images/dollar_bag.jpg&imgrefurl=http://bullion.nwtmint.com/silver_1921morgan_dollars.php&usg=__gVK1-Ex0Q73l15n9E22Szli1hjI=&h=210&w=200&sz=14&hl=nl&start=23&sig2=DDtCiL02f4lO1LhaemnBuw&zoom=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=072VVQ3VU8QZ-M:&tbnh=106&tbnw=101&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dbag%2B10%2Bkg%2Bsilver%2Bcoins%26start%3D20%26um%3D1%26hl%3Dnl%26sa%3DN%26ndsp%3D20%26tbs%3Disch:1&ei=bw2ETIFMhN8456Hwgg4
"Cheap"?
A Morgan is .77344 oz silver.
Don't forget about those wise wealthy sheik traders in Dubai who got a great discounted deal on gold from some authoritative sources in the Middle of the Dark Continent. Turned out to be a big pile of pre-paid rocks with no return address or phone number attached.
My own (personal and recommended to clients as well) is if you've personally found this deal..... why for art thou so well blessed as there be many individuals who (as full time gainful employment) look for exactly this type of opportunity? Referred to as (classic) arbitrage.
It depends on the province in Canada too. I was paying 25 US dollars for commision at the Saskatoon Scotiabank and $4 Canadian dollars commision at the Edmonton Scotiabank. (1 oz gold)
Buy only at main branch, other charge 25$ "armored car" fee.
I assume the gov't owns a lot of silver miners. I believe they own a chunk of Silver Corp. If it's the gov't mint, then you may be getting a rare deal. They can't afford to ruin their reputation. The Chinese public would freak.
Another great read from Gordon T Long
America has a Structural Problem
http://coins.about.com/od/worldcoins/ig/Chinese-Counterfeiting-Ring/
Urgl... damn! Most of my sitting liberty coins cost about 250 to 750$!
You can normally sport the fake once on the edges and the cc markings but... those look good. No wonder collector prices are dropping. Any coin without the pcgs seal aren't worth that much but now they even replicate the seals to!
Those chinese just don't have any honor! They replicate about anything these days! Just look at the size of that opperation!
better stop buying coins as a investment I see.
The dollar is fake wealth, but we use it anyhow. If you have to fear the counterfeiting of things you'll live in fear forever -- counterfeiting is an old honored profession. The FBI is the agency in charge of ferreting out this sort of thing and they just don't give a shit unless you are running a printing press spewing out fake $100 bills. They could care less about fake silver coinage because that is a "hobby" field. The pricks.
nation of fake shit thieves...China
The moral is "don't buy old, uncirculated U.S. silver coins". I buy junk U.S. silver coins for the metal content. I suppose the Chinese could do it, but it seems harder to simulate wear-and-tear on the coins.
From Ed Steer's newsletter
Interesting that no mention was made of the debt markets. Those prices have appreciated measurably this year with the corresponding drop in yields. Needless to say "this has Washington terrified" since "how is it possible for us to print and spend with impunity and be rewarded for it"? Needless to say this has been the only prop for the American economy and at a certain level I imagine what passes for its "global variant." Seeing our "man in Havana" don his military fatigues i take as a very interesting statement as to where "he sees things going." Do Hitler's willing executioners agree though? Always remember: "he who hesitates is lost."
'billionaire (sic)'
Tyler, love it! Thanks for you're (sic) posts and you're (sic!) untiring work,
DavidC
Recovery? Did I miss something?
I sure didn't miss the lies from the Deceiver in Chief!
Yeah, we wanted to send you a text message about the recovery, but we didn't have your number. But we left a message at your moms house. Guess she didn't yet tell you about it.
Again with politics? How does that add to the discussion?
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