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Credit And Sovereign Risk Update Post NFP
- HY 600
- IG 101
- SovX 110
- France 63.50 +0.5
- Greece 415.00 -7
- Ireland 166.5 -6
- Belgium 72.50 +0.25
- Denmark 40.50 -0.5
- Norway 21.50 -1.0
- Spain 167.50 -3.5
- Sweden 54.50 -1.0
- Holland 44.00 +1.25
- Portugal 225.00 -5.0
- Austria 101.75 -0.75
- Finland 36.75 +2.25
- Italy 155.50 +3.0
- UK 99.50 -1.5
The dead cat bounce in the most shorted names is taking some of the recent peripheral high fliers tighter, at the expense of increased widening at the "risk-free" core. We expect much more of this risk transfer from the zone of perceived risk to the heart of Europe in the weeks/months to come.
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Where's Germany?
100bp to insure against a UK default in the next 5 years. Thats 100:1 odds. Sounds like a good bet to me.
Good morning, you stupid bulls! You don't give easy, do you? Note to the stupid bulls- the Reflation trade is dead.
Why does this article remind me of the Battleship game I used to love to play as a kid?! ''Direct Hit!!! You sunk my Battleship!!!'' Looks to me like a lot of battleships about to be sunk!!!
Did you stupid bulls put your Dow 10,000 hats on? It just hit it.
I have a stupid question on US CDS (and frankly other very big countries whose defaults are highly correlated to a US default). If the US defaults, how is it that you think you are going to settle (in presumably worthless dollars)? Don't you think that there is a significant risk that the US (and other governments) would pass legislation (or simply decree) that such sovereign CDS was unenforceable? Also, if the US defaults, don't you think that your counterparty is going to be in real trouble as they are probably already stuffed to the gills with treasuries, GSE gteed debt, .... ?
Just a few dumb questions on this market in general.
I have a stupid question on US CDS (and frankly other very big countries whose defaults are highly correlated to a US default). If the US defaults, how is it that you think you are going to settle (in presumably worthless dollars)? Don't you think that there is a significant risk that the US (and other governments) would pass legislation (or simply decree) that such sovereign CDS was unenforceable? Also, if the US defaults, don't you think that your counterparty is going to be in real trouble as they are probably already stuffed to the gills with treasuries, GSE gteed debt, .... ?
Just a few dumb questions on this market in general.