Cutting straight to the chase:
Our analysis of the gold market leads us to take a bearish stance with regard to the gold price in 2010. In 2009 we reasoned that the main drivers of the gold price were significantly linked to the trade weighted dollar, increased investment demand, central bank purchases and market sentiment. The increase in investment demand for gold ETFs, in our view, had an “accelerating and reinforcing effect” on market sentiment and the safe haven status of gold which resulted in upward pressure on the gold price which rose 24.6% during 2009. We do not expect the 2009 rate of investment in ETFs to continue at the same pace in 2010.
We are of the view that the gold market will likely be dominated mainly by the demand side of the equation in 2010. We believe that the likely decline in investment demand for ETFs, year on year, will play a pre-eminent role as a swing factor in our supply-and-demand balance in 2010. Jewellery, industrial and dental demand will likely strengthen marginally year on year. The secondary supply of scrap will depend on the gold price but will likely remain above 50% of mine supply. Central banks will likely become net purchasers while de-hedging will reduce significantly as the major players in this arena accelerate their 2009 de-hedging activities. Our calculations show a large oversupply of around 420 tonnes in our supply-and-demand equation for 2010.
In summary, we believe that the steam has run out of investment demand as the economic environment has and is changing to the positive. Muted investment demand coupled with a change in market sentiment and a projected large oversupply in the supply equation all point to a downward correction in the gold price from the highs reached at the end of 2009.
Such optimism, even as the global economy is poised on the edge of the double-dip. On the other hand, we wonder who Credit Suisse recommends its clients sell their gold to? Could it be... Credit Suisse?