Credit Suisse - Market Now At Euphoric Levels
Credit Suisse's global risk appetite index is now at "Euphoria" levels, matching the highs from November 2007, and has retraced from "Panic" at the fastest rate since the October 1987 crash. Next official stage on this index: "Irrational Exuberance" although at least now it has gripped the entire market, not just tech stocks.
hat tip Oso
(8 votes)
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on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:29
#27897
Is this thing going to go belly up in October or not...Tyler...can we get a poll on that?
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:05
#28042
I'm not sure how it's going to get all the way to October. Horizontally? Maybe with a quick correction, and then another ramp?
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:33
#28298
Who knows?! Maybe it will keep going up forever? I mean they have manipulated the markets to go higher for such a long time now. Who needs rationality and reason to invest.
Just go long and keep going long. The market peaks at DOW 30,000 in 2016.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 21:31
#28718
that depends. is the distribution of SPYs by the PTs complete yet? i would venture a guess that it is close, if not there already. i believe tyler posted some price/volume divergence action just yesterday (or was it tuesday, all these nonsense days are blending into one another). btw tyler, those were some very interesting charts which appear to indicate a distribution going on but i'm no technical whiz so i may have misread them.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:29
#27898
Thanks for the view from a market making liquidity provider.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:33
#27920
Looks about right. I'm a buyer!
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:34
#27928
Funny ... when CS said BUY BUY BUY (30% ago) TD either did not see the note or did not want to talk about it. Now he puts out their view ... only when it suits him
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:39
#27951
i've yet to see a buy or sell recommendation from TD.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:50
#27991
Neither have I. Long time reader here as well.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:55
#28011
same here
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:25
#28109
Either you guys are being funny or you don't know TD does not recommend buys or sells. You are just being funny right?
Right?
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 17:35
#28420
that's what we said ..
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:10
#28059
Are you actually implying the run up in equities markets is based on some type of fundamental economics? Just because the equities are on a run, it doesn't mean the value of the assets is not too high. And before you start droning on about forward looking blah blah blah...let me just stop you.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:30
#28129
That line is so preternaturally smooth, it's newsworthy.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:33
#28141
This rally is the biggest sham ever, brought to you by mutual of 85 Broad Street. Congratulations on riding the crime wave; FOAD, however, for your tacit approval of it, asshole.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 21:33
#28722
anon 27928,
well at least YOU believe in transparency. the transparency of your post indicates that at any rate.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:37
#27939
So,
1) When does this blowup
2) What will the blowup look like
3) WTF.
If one of you intheknow types could answer those questions, I'll say something nice about you.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:13
#28072
Svend - I totally agree with #3
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:39
#28313
It will look like the biggest 3 of 3 of 3 that we have ever seen. BOMBS AWAY
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 17:07
#28360
i,m a trend trader. i don't try and time the tops or bottoms and i don't care what the reason is that the market goes up or down. so i can't answer when it's going to blow up, but at some point after it blows up, i will sell my 'longs' in the q's and spy's and go short. i have been 'long' since march 23rd and will stay long until the trend turns down. good luck
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:37
#27941
has it turned...cant tell from this chart
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:40
#27958
Tyler has given recs....go back and look at his SRS calls in the winter.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:33
#28137
I was going to say the same thing. The only one I can think of was SRS back in Jan or Feb, but that is a shitty vehicle to invest in. It's $12 and even if CRE tanks it won't go back up to even $20. I'd rather short IYR.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 21:30
#28717
whether it was an implicit or explicit recommendation i bought SRS at 27, and now its 12, and i feel like a fool
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:44
#27972
Perhaps others can comment here. I could well be missing something.
I do not see any clear correlation with future market moves in this chart. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
As for wondering why ZH only publishes the negative, that's just the name of the game here. I think TD and his crew have clearly stated their position - the bullish material gets widely distributed already. Their job - performed very competently - is to show the other side of the coin. They are serious about this site not being about investable information. It isn't. But it is still tremendously useful for staying grounded.
Just my two cents (probably less, really).
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:46
#27977
welp. we're going for another stick save, today. it hasn't turned.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:48
#27987
S&P might be allowed to close below 1,000 today, just so no one thinks it's manipulated...
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:00
#28026
There. See that? Honest as Abby Joe is long.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:49
#27988
*Sigh* Pollyanna this, Pollyanna that.... Bulls are so happy and proud to be up 50%! I almost forget what were they like when we were down 56% 4 months ago.... anyone remember how big the stains were while they were shitting their pants? I do unfortunately, I'm listening to the same people who thought the world was going to end preach how everythings better... I don't need CNBC, I have an RIA CIO who's a fundamentalist, but got a C in Algebra..... But it's green shits baby!
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:53
#28001
Oh yah, I forgot to add that we put a whole load of capital in to work.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:51
#27994
There are no buy or sell recommendations from ZH, nor will there be. What ZH has been very good at is pointing out HFT, Flash (with very good results), Dark Pools and Sigma X. This is quite ground breaking, a blog that brings up issues that are then followed by the media masses and their kin. Long may it continue.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:55
#28004
Yea, euphoric! Did you see what they did to the retail sector this morning? The Gangsters jacked up Retail Sector stocks ON CRAP NEWS, after it’s two week/35% run up on nothingness, and then sold it off, once they blew all stops within a country mile.
The sole purpose was to maximize profits and manipulate the market behind the back of Schapiro, who is still actively searching for the signs… “please lord just show me a sign”
Also CNBC producers aided and abetted, with a planned in advance, over-hype of the sector, beginning on Monday and peaking this morning.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 14:57
#28018
USD nibbling on a 77 handle again
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:23
#28104
I can't find this index on my bloomberg, got any ideas where else i could get this data?
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:32
#28136
I made a similar look chart using MS Paint.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:33
#28139
Does CS disclose how this index is calculated?
Most interesting to me would be their "global" risk appetite calculations. It seems that big divergence between "global" and "equity only" indeces serves as a good notice for an impending sudden flip into panic.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 10:13
#29074
Its the performance of different beta markets, like something dangerous in China relative to FTSE, relative to bonds, relative to treasuries.
The faster riskier assets go up, relative to lower risk assets, the higher this index goes.
The idea is that it can be used as a guage for what the dumb money is chasing, and used as a contrarian signal.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:47
#28174
http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/bubble-psych...
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:11
#28237
http://seekingalpha.com/article/153919-dow-target-6-617-october-25-2009-here-is-why
We're in for a doosey in my opinion. Probably a 30% drop at least over the next 80 days.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 21:45
#28735
anon 28237,
anecdotally, i was speaking with a former coworker of mine on monday and asked how much trading they had been doing for their clients (i was kind of curious as i believe this rally has been almost completely done by PT computers pushing paper back and forth to each other). she stated that it had been somewhat below average but not by much. what she said of interest and direct relevance to the link you posted is that in the past 3-4 weeks her FAs have been fielding far more unhappy phone calls and emails from clients upset about not being more exposed to this rally. and that definitely jives with the part of the thrust of your posted link (thank you for posting).
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:32
#28290
How come Citi's is still in the Panic zone?
http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-investorsentimentreadings.html
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 18:45
#28568
Cheeky B ... like the AVATAR!!
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 19:25
#28615
AAII just posted sentiment too thru 8/5.
Bullish readings just blew thru 50%, up 2.3%. Usually a good contrarian data poit.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/index.cfm
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 20:21
#28653
Yes, this market can go up for a good while longer. That amount of time is as predictable as what happened when the bottom dropped out in 2008. Lots of intelligent people had predicted what was coming but no one I know of actually nailed the exact time ( and if they did it was just luck). The reason being is that there are a whole lot of very smart people trying to keep this Ponzi scheme from bursting. Look how long Madoff lasted , and you get the idea. The powers in charge try to make anyone saying that "the emperor has no clothes" look like they are a fringe radical. But that still will not prevent the inevitable next major leg down.
on Thu, 08/06/2009 - 22:43
#28772
my impression (often wrong) is that we've reached a point where something has to give. The market has floundered the last couple of days so maybe they're running out of bubble gum, string and duct tape to hold this thing together...who knows.
I think the UE data tomorrow could (if bad) be a trigger...then again who knows, just turn on the trading boxes and let them take the market higher.
Who knows...it seems to be all fukt up right now.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 01:52
#28845
Don's believe it for a minute. They are making the market look like it is going down in the morning and then buying it for the rest of the day from those scared that it is going lower.
The market is moving higher and also Citigroup may reach $7 on short squeeze. You heard it here first.
admin
http://invetrics.com
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 02:15
#28856
How long until we get to Orgasmic Oblivion?
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 07:38
#28888
Sept 1 I am outta this beetch, SKF and SDS, assuming they still exist.
on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:15
#29182
It blows up on Sept 14th and the destruction accelerates on October 25th( Since that is a Sunday that means Asia will be experiencing a bloodbath on their Oct 26th while we are still on Sunday.)
This opinion is not only formed by clearly remembering the past in order not to fall prey to its devastation but also by following the Web Bots and a fund manager running things based on Astrology and technical analysis who was up 50% in 2008.
Nuff said.
fUny1.blogspot.com