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Credit Suisse - Market Now At Euphoric Levels

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Credit Suisse's global risk appetite index is now at "Euphoria" levels, matching the highs from November 2007, and has retraced from "Panic" at the fastest rate since the October 1987 crash. Next official stage on this index: "Irrational Exuberance" although at least now it has gripped the entire market, not just tech stocks.

hat tip Oso

 


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Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:29 | Link to Comment KawKaw
KawKaw's picture

Is this thing going to go belly up in October or not...Tyler...can we get a poll on that?

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 22:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

Thanks for the view from a market making liquidity provider.

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:33 | Link to Comment demsco
demsco's picture

Looks about right. I'm a buyer!

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:39 | Link to Comment deadhead
deadhead's picture

i've yet to see a buy or sell recommendation from TD. 

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:50 | Link to Comment frank
frank's picture

Neither have I. Long time reader here as well.

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

same here

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:25 | Link to Comment waterdog
waterdog's picture

Either you guys are being funny or you don't know TD does not recommend buys or sells. You are just being funny right?

Right?

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 18:35 | Link to Comment Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

that's what we said ..

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:10 | Link to Comment KawKaw
KawKaw's picture

Are you actually implying the run up in equities markets is based on some type of fundamental economics?  Just because the equities are on a run, it doesn't mean the value of the assets is not too high.  And before you start droning on about forward looking blah blah blah...let me just stop you.

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 22:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:37 | Link to Comment svendthrift
svendthrift's picture

So,

1) When does this blowup

2) What will the blowup look like

3) WTF.

 

If one of you intheknow types could answer those questions, I'll say something nice about you.

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 17:39 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 18:07 | Link to Comment tradertim
tradertim's picture

i,m a trend trader. i don't try and time the tops or bottoms and i don't care what the reason is that the market goes up or down. so i can't answer when it's going to blow up, but at some point after it blows up, i will sell my 'longs' in the q's and spy's and go short. i have been 'long' since march 23rd and will stay long until the trend turns down. good luck

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:37 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

has it turned...cant tell from this chart

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:33 | Link to Comment jedwards
jedwards's picture

I was going to say the same thing.  The only one I can think of was SRS back in Jan or Feb, but that is a shitty vehicle to invest in.  It's $12 and even if CRE tanks it won't go back up to even $20.  I'd rather short IYR.

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 22:30 | Link to Comment DaLev
DaLev's picture

whether it was an implicit or explicit recommendation i bought SRS at 27, and now its 12, and i feel like a fool

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:44 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:48 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:49 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

*Sigh* Pollyanna this, Pollyanna that.... Bulls are so happy and proud to be up 50%! I almost forget what were they like when we were down 56% 4 months ago.... anyone remember how big the stains were while they were shitting their pants? I do unfortunately, I'm listening to the same people who thought the world was going to end preach how everythings better... I don't need CNBC, I have an RIA CIO who's a fundamentalist, but got a C in Algebra..... But it's green shits baby!

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:53 | Link to Comment phaesed
phaesed's picture

Oh yah, I forgot to add that we put a whole load of capital in to work.

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:55 | Link to Comment Dr Hackenbush
Dr Hackenbush's picture

Yea, euphoric!  Did you see what they did to the retail sector this morning?  The Gangsters jacked up Retail Sector stocks ON CRAP NEWS, after it’s two week/35% run up on nothingness, and then sold it off, once they blew all stops within a country mile.  

The sole purpose was to maximize profits and manipulate the market behind the back of Schapiro, who is still actively searching for the signs…  “please lord just show me a sign”

Also CNBC producers aided and abetted, with a planned in advance, over-hype of the sector, beginning on Monday and peaking this morning. 

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 15:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:23 | Link to Comment X on the MTA
X on the MTA's picture

I can't find this index on my bloomberg, got any ideas where else i could get this data?

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 16:33 | Link to Comment TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

Does CS disclose how this index is calculated?

Most interesting to me would be their "global" risk appetite calculations. It seems that big divergence between "global" and "equity only" indeces serves as a good notice for an impending sudden flip into panic.

Fri, 08/07/2009 - 11:13 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 17:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 22:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 17:32 | Link to Comment tradeking13
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 19:45 | Link to Comment pc_babe
pc_babe's picture

Cheeky B ... like the AVATAR!!

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 20:25 | Link to Comment pc_babe
pc_babe's picture

AAII just posted sentiment too thru 8/5.

 

Bullish readings just blew thru 50%, up 2.3%.   Usually a good contrarian data poit.

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/index.cfm

 

Thu, 08/06/2009 - 21:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 08/06/2009 - 23:43 | Link to Comment glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

my impression (often wrong) is that we've reached a point where something has to give. The market has floundered the last couple of days so maybe they're running out of bubble gum, string and duct tape to hold this thing together...who knows.

I think the UE data tomorrow could (if bad) be a trigger...then again who knows, just turn on the trading boxes and let them take the market higher.

Who knows...it seems to be all fukt up right now.

Fri, 08/07/2009 - 02:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/07/2009 - 03:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/07/2009 - 08:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
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