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The CRFB Sees Locusts, Plagues And Lots And Lots Of Budget "Impossibilities" In America's Future
The Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget Project has released its most recent BudgetWatch report, "The Cost of 'Current Policy'", which while required reading for all mathematically inept professionals in the administration (all of them), will likely get zero attention, due to conclusions such as this one:
This situation is economically impossible; at some point, U.S. debt would reach a level so high that creditors would stop lending us money. The question, though, is how the situation will be resolved. Will politicians confront the policy choices or delay them to the point where they will be forced upon us due to a fiscal crisis? The longer we wait to take on these issues, the worse they will get and the more painful it will be to change course.
Everyone hates those who tell the unsugarcoated truth (especially CNBC, whose guest policy has shifted to only inviting "analysts" who agree with Larry Kudlow that double digit unemployment is the greatest thing to happen to America). Alas, it is these very people who are usually correct, however their perspective is completely useless in retrospect.
So here are the CRFB's loathsome observations:
US Budget Watch has constructed its own “current policy” baseline by assuming select policies do not conform to current law (see http://crfb.org/blogs/understanding-currentpolicy for details).2 Over the next decade, keeping certain policies in place would result in roughly $3 trillion less in revenues than is scheduled under law and close to $2.5 trillion more in spending, including interest. Complying with current policies without offsetting the costs would result in drastically larger deficits between 2010 and 2019 and would cause the ten-year deficit total to grow from an already dangerously high $7.1 trillion to $12.6 trillion. Debt held by the public would rise to over 90 percent of GDP by 2019, as opposed to 68 percent without those changes.
And this:
With public debt accumulating on a compounding basis, extending current policies would create an even more dire long-run picture. CBO’s Alternative Fiscal Scenario, which generally assumes current policy (although it has not been updated to reflect CBO’s latest economic and technical assumptions), projects deficits will rise to 10 percent of GDP by 2027 (rather than 3.6 percent under current law), exceed 20 percent by 2045 (as opposed to 7 percent), and reach 42 percent by 2080 (rather than 18 percent).
You read that right folks: in 3 generations, deficits will reach an unfathomable 50% of GDP! Obama's legacy is to effectively enslave America to its creditor interests.
As for that $9 trillion 2019 deficit? Why, even that is low:
Primarily due to the cost of renewing most of the 2001/2003 tax cuts, indexing the AMT, and allowing physician payments to grow, the president’s own budget projects a 10-year deficit of more than $9.1 trillion. CBO would likely have estimated deficits closer to $10 trillion under the president’s budget.
And probably the most amusing observation is the CRBF's observation of discretionary spending:
Though not technically “current law,” the CBO baseline makes assumptions regarding the growth of discretionary spending that are probably unrealistically low. As a matter of convention, CBO assumes that discretionary spending (including supplemental spending for overseas operations) will grow roughly with inflation. In reality, the discretionary spending level is set annually by Congress, and absent any caps it can grow at any rate. Historically, the growth rate has been much higher than inflation— often closer to the pace of GDP growth.
At the same time, the cost of continuing the current policy of annually increasing discretionary spending is quite high. If regular discretionary spending is allowed to grow with GDP as opposed to inflation, it would add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years (excluding interest). Even after assuming a gradual phase-down in spending for the war in Iraq, discretionary spending would still be $1 trillion higher than in CBO’s baseline.
And that's where you get an extra $1 trillion in additional budget deficits.
And the CRFB's unpalatable conclusions which will definitely be ignored by SPARC clusters, who, like the rating agencies, are only capable of chasing upward momentum:
The mounting debt under such a scenario would likely crowd out private investment to a significant degree, resulting in stunted economic growth. At the same time, it would ensure that government interest payments would consume a large and rising share of the budget, leaving little room for anything else. And, at some point, our rising debt would make continued borrowing prohibitive, as our lenders and investors cease their large-scale purchasing of U.S. Treasury bonds. If it came to this, the result would likely be a serious fiscal and economic crisis, followed by steep and perhaps crippling tax increases and spending cuts.
In essence, the very future of the American system is at stake. And somehow nobody in the administration is willing to do anything to prevent what will be a certain cataclysm absent some miraculous diametric shift in policy. Which of course will never come, as Obama has to be very worried about his sliding popularity and upcoming mid-term elections, while the oligarchy of Wall Street knows too well it has at best 2 years to collect on bonuses, and option incentives for massively mispriced underlying stocks, before everything eventually comes crashing down. And when it does, everyone will take off in their Textron made jets (which will by then likely be a Goldman LBOed company, purchased once the Conviction Buy becomes a Conviction Sell, and Goldman stealthily purchases all the stock), to live happily ever after on some quiet Pacific Island, far from the pitchfork armed crowd of what was formerly the American middle class (as all boats will have been purchased by Optiver's market manipulating liquidity providing multi-quadrillionaires).
h/t Richard
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So, Tyler, let's hope you are taking your words to heart and have some preparedness in place. I wouldn't want to be stuck on Manhattan when the day of financial reckoning comes.
There is absolutely no question how this will play out. Why do we even ask questions like "Will the powers that be do the right/necessary thing?"
Of course they won't. The question is preposterous. Our system of government prevents taking unprofitable choices with painful outcomes. We can only do what is immediately beneficial, and so the "hard choices" never get made.
We are headed at 1000mph towards collapse, and only an idiot or an ignoramus cannot see it.
Prepare accordingly. This *is* happening. And it *is* happening in your lifespan. The immediate result will be anarchy, and then a new America which will be worse than anarchy.
Be prepared for anything.
Be prepared to fight, hunker down, bribe, flee or suffer. I'm not sure there will be any other options. Fleeing might make the most sense for the most people.
"Obama's legacy is to effectively enslave America to its creditor interests."
Not if we don't pay it back.
What makes the green grass grow?
Blood Blood Blood makes the green Grass grow!!!
What exactly is all this money being spent on?
Good question that I've asked myself a lot recently.
Certainly not being spent on, oh, Cash for Clunkers payments. Or for all those portions of the stimulus that haven't even been spent yet.
I know what SOME of it has been spent on, though, since I happen to be not too long out of grad school...
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-5715&tab=summary
All sorts of stuff in there that, on the surface, might seem to be good news for students. Except for the part where the gov't "buys" (seizes) your loans from your lender, forces you to service your loan through the Dept. of Education regardless of your loan terms, and changes all the rules of eligibility for deferments and forbearances.
Ask around and see how many recent grads are getting the lovely little letters in the mail informing them that the Dept. of Ed. now owns their asses... For the children, of course. Hell, the gov't could easily pour out several tens of billions of USD a year buying these up based on the number of degrees awarded each year and the average student debt.
Oh, and just for shits and giggles, let's throw in a "rule change" last month to retroactively take away deferments on loans the Dept. of Ed. hasn't managed to seize yet. Yeah, now we're cookin with gas.
I think we are using past experience to predict what is happening, which may be flawed.
At no time in history has money been 'digital'. I really don't think our leadership is worrying about actually spending anything...after all, they can, in the span of a few minutes, 'print' the entire money supply 100X over if they wanted to...every day...with no-one to stop them.
Now, the game is all about individual jockeying in the global-power-structure (singular) and playing the game of controlling/calming Joe and Jane six-pack back home.
Just my $.02 (and depending on inflation, that may be valued as a 'free opinion') :)
-tk
You're still enslaved Actually, you're still enslaved even if you don't pay it back since you will need to continue borrowing. The only way you're not enslaved is if you don't pay it back and somehow develop the fiscal discipline to live within your means. That isn't going to happen until it is forced upon us, thus slavery.
Anything tied to a Social Security Number is not yours. It belongs to someone else, with your ignorantly tacit approval. If you want to be free, trade your syphillitic Federal Reserve Notes for fine gold and silver. Gold and silver have no counter-party. They are discrete and discreet stores of value. Hide it well, and no one can take it from you.
I am Chumbawamba.
This won't happen. We're starting a new program called Cash for Old People. Bring in your grandma for a few bucks and the country will sell soylent green to the governments of the Third World. They get food and our health care costs dramatically decrease so everyone gets paid back and everyone is happy.
Problem solved. ;)
I love your idea. Better than mine. I was going to suggest we declare war on Canada, and catapult all the old people.
I agree, though when we do, "My visions of locust return, I see Pinkertons [Chinese] coming in swarms."
okay perhaps its my twisted, end of the week sense of humor that's been ruined by yet another spy ramp job - but there's a huge amount of irony that the first african american president in U.S. history is 'enslaving america to its creditor interests'...
come on.. the rest of you were thinking it.. I just said it out loud.
no? too soon?
Too much cheese can really constipate a fella.
perhaps I'm just watching far too much Family Guy..
Twisted irony it is (though not something we'd see from a "black" man who wasn't raised by his white grandparents, IMO.) It is the shameless pandering of the classic "oreo." FWIW. No wonder educated white people like him so well . . . he's so very civilized.
Twisted irony it is (though not something we'd see from a "black" man who wasn't raised by his white grandparents, IMO.) It is the shameless pandering of the classic "oreo." FWIW. No wonder educated white people like him so well . . . he's so very civilized.
"Chains you can believe in?"
Ah ah ah aha ha aha aha aha aha aha aha ah (lol)!
I loved this bad pun almost as much as Bill the Cat.
Actually, I couldn't help but notice that Obama will be the second legislator from Illinois whose election to the presidency will cause the political breakup of the U.S.; this time, though, while the army is overseas.
Foreigners: hide and watch.
what total bunk.
That president from Illinois did not cause the breakup of the US.
It was Southern bigots and slaveowners who didn't want to give up their despicable lifestyle and actually work in their own fields, who caused it.
Give us a break.........
lincoln could have bought all the slaves and made slavery illegal, like every other civilized nation at the time.
he chose war.
Thank you. Someone out there is reading their DiLorenzo. Sad to say, but the only thing most Americans know about history is what they learned in their 8th grade "Social Studies" textbook.
The war had nothing to do with slavery. That's revisionist history. Lincoln SAID he would fight the war if it didn't free one slave. He fought the war because the central bankers were screwing up the southern economy by manipulating the prices on all the commodities. Mostly cotton.
Bbbilly, I grew up believing what you did. Then, when I got older I discovered I had been lied to by my government. It always bugged me. I mean, on one hand we were practicing genocide against native Americans whose only "crime" was living on land we wanted to steal and on the other hand we wanted to free slaves because it was the right thing to do?
Maybe in your world, but not in mine. The truth is that Lincoln used slavery as an excuse to destroy the South economically. In spite of 200 years of history that suggests we tend to act in our own self interest as a nation, it's nice to know that there are still those, like you, who will eat whatever is spoonfed you with a sort of childlike innocence.
Geez.
economicmorphine - you hit the nail on the head brother.
more total right wing nut bunk.........
You mean like the slave owners in the North Lincoln had no problem with while in office?
Obama doesn't represent typical african american interests, he is a straight scumbag asshole socialist know it all communtity crapivist.
sorry...to early?
you do a disservice to scumbag asshole
socialists by calling obama that...bucket of
shit comes to mind when i think of
kenyan born indonesian barry soetoro mubrak
hussein obama or whatever the fuck his name
is....
All the election of Obama did was get us rid of the appallingly ignorant, dubya.
The POTUS being the figurehead that he is, a PR person for the US, and subsequent to 9/11, the election of any person with a name like Obama Hussein is a testament to the dereliction, perversion, blatantly corrupt scoundrels the republican party morphed into for 12 years. Having voted for them until the first W election as a life long republican, I am mortified that I participated in this
travesty.
Thru the law of Sequential Causation, Bush's election, after the legal, semantic, moral and ethical pit of the Clinton admenstruation, appears to make our elections ever more simply reactionary with little real regard to the merits or track record of the new pretenders.
Retard alert: (59481)
I would looove to hear how you might describe "typical African American interests".........you mean like fried chicken and watermelon ?
That's pretty much the level of thinking when you start to assign a whole group of people certain "characteristics".
Oh, and maybe you could describe some of those "typical Causcasian American interests".....that could be fun too.
How about "typical Asian American interests"......
Can you really not see the ingrained bigotry you're carrying around ?
caucasian American, Asian American, Hispanic American....and you probably have no idea how much of the problem you are with that racial stuff. It is always the fools crying "racist" who want to put everybody in a racial category. How about if we just let them be Americans ?
actually the new PC terms are: af-am, eur-am, as-am, and so forth. It makes us more homogeneous, don't you think. Who the frik cares what someones space/time suit looks like. Scoundrels have been known to wear all manner of them.
Too soon? Not soon enough for Demi and Ashton. They want to enlist us peasants to pleadge servitude to the President. Thank God they told me what I must do.
I have actually pondered his status as "First Custodian".
"but there's a huge amount of irony that the first african american president in U.S. history is 'enslaving america to its creditor interests'..."
Actually the irony is that it was pointed out by someone going by the name "Gubbmint Cheese".
My observation is that whether it is people like us on ZH or the talking heads of tv, radio or even the internet... until we stop referring to our national problems as if Obama is actually pulling the strings we will continue to go around in circles. It is like watching the WWF, we get caught up in the show and spectacle. Vince McMahn is pulling the strings and everything is done with his best intest in mind. Same with our country. Corporations are directing the show to their benefit. They write the policies, they write the bills, they tell our representatives what to say, they tell the media what to report.
What can we do to make a stand by our daily actions?
Put your money into local credit unions today! Buy at local stores or farmers markets Do whatever you can to support your local community especially get involved with your local goverment. Donate your time or money, become a member of a group, joining a committee ect.
After reading this story on the CRFB report and taking in other info conerning everything from violations of the Posse Comitatus Act, abuse of presidential executive orders, Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports the chemical compounds of the swine flu vaccine, Flash trading, threats to the Hippocratic Oath and the financial gestapo known as GS and JPM we have got to get up from our laptops and pcs and take action.
Just think this all started because i could not find "Gubbmint Cheese" at neither of these sites: www.theciaa.org or www.wischeesemakersassn.org
to reiterate:
"Put your money into local credit unions today! Buy at local stores or farmers markets Do whatever you can to support your local community especially get involved with your local goverment. Donate your time or money, become a member of a group, joining a committee ect."
Well, do we know who is pulling Vince McMahon's strings? The rabbit hole goes deeper!
I am Chumbawamba.
Good lord! Is he a former Goldman Sachs pinhead also?
By the way your tagline has inspired me.
"What I want....is justice"
Clive Owen "The International"
Obama listens to Geither and Summers who are both idiots. Where the hell is Paul Volcker
Where the hell is his street sense?
He's a nigger, not a nigga.
I am Chumbawamba.
You know what Chumbawamba... I think I might have to ask Heli-Ben on his next fly-over of South Central LA to drop you off in the northwest corner neighborhood near the 110 and 105 interchange wearing a blue bandanna... with that comment pinned proudly to your chest... and I would suggest immediately upon your arrival you begin discussing all of these types of thoughts with as many people as you can find... you are one of the most offensive people on this site... imho... you really ought to do a little historical reading and develop a more refined sense of empathy...
Paul Volcker is warning that money market funds are the mechanism that triggers systemic crises - the tool by which the Street extracts huge, unaudited rents from the Fed and Treasury to "prevent collapse". Expect we're being set up for Round 2 in the near future.
Volcker Says Money Market Funds Weaken US Financial System
Volker can't fix this one. Way too late.
Volcker was brought in house to defuse his effectiveness as a dissenting voice outside. Keep your friends close . . .
Then Paul Volcker needs to do one courageous and heroic act as the sun sets on his stellar career - completely disengage from this disaster Socialist-Communist "Presidency" and speak up loud and clear about the looming next leg down in this depressionary crisis.
As they write, "bwahaha". Volcker is not the great saint that people make him out to be. He's as much a gear in the system as Hitler...er, I mean Kissinger. Damn, I always get those two mixed up when I'm drinking red wine.
I am Chumbawamba.
Another classic "shakeout and fakeout" move by Goldman and 'Da Boyz'.....
Otherwise known as "McQueened"
Yields broke down through the 200-day on Wednesday, then promptly U-turned like Steve McQueen in "Bullitt" and shanked anyone who went long bonds on the cross...
You're on a roll, man. Who's the old school hottie?
Bob, what kind of wood doesn't float?
Hi-larious.
Funny! (Sorry, sweet Natalie . . . )
she went out for a sailing trip with Chris Walken and Mr. Heart..
it was only supoosed to be a three hour tour.. a three hour tour..
What a beautiful young woman. Thanks RT.
Natillie Wood
- Natalie Wood guy.
looks like Natalie Wood
Her name was Natalie Wood, and she was not in "Bullit" (the movie with the mustang chase being referred to and Pics provided).
Best car chase footage in a movie, ever. Definitley the one to choose to match the chart. Now, what does the chart need to look like for you to reference the car-train chase in French Connection.
I agreed with your car chase comment....
...until I saw Ronan.
Nice car. Is that the new Ford hybrid? If so can I get it in cornflower blue? I yearn for the good old days when a man could smoke unashamedly in public, I'll bet it's even unfiltered.
I fantasize about Stevo being alive today and meeting with his banker to "discuss" last years 50% losses.
if you look very very closely you can see the extension cord
Now that is hot. Steve McQueen ripping asphalt.
..."she's a witch...buurrrnnn her, burn her anyway....and why does a witch burn??? "cause their made of Wood".
Bullitt georeferenced for your amusement
http://www.seero.com/broadcaster/Steve_McQueen
enjoy
hahahahahaha!
"change" in my mind is analogous to "time"; a pretty weak campaign slogan but somehow by repeating it 134564534 times he got elected. Boggles the mind.
IMHO his two biggest nominations were defense and treasury secrataries, and he left Bush appointments in both spots. The only change I see is that I'm never voting for another Democrat (or Republican). Oh. I almost forgot: Thank God It's Bank Failure Friday!
It would be cool if Vegas would let us make book on which banks get capped on Friday.
I originally would have agreed with you on the appointments. Now I realize both were fait accompli, because the Democrats had nobody with experience (at the top or otherwise) for positions of meaningful value.
I won't vote for either party again (Republican reluctantly in the last election, not that McCain would have been vastly different). I voted Libertarian in 2004, out of disgust. I should've done it again.
We need a real 3rd party - one which has real value for the people and for business. Grease the skids of business with non-intervening policy, help the people with decent laws and good enforcement.
We're headed for a socialist/cult of personality nightmare. But I think the cult is slowly dissolving due to fear. It may revive with a mild "recovery"...but it will die just as quickly.
I admit I got Fooled Again, choosing Obama (my first Democrat) over a seemingly deranged McCain and Palin pairing. I struggled with it, but ultimalely went with it on the "throw em a change up" theory after 8 years of Cheney, er ah, Bush. I'm pretty sure, crappy results notwithstanding, it was a fairly legitimate choice at the time. But no excuses - I should have stayed home. The second I heard about Geithner's nomination, I knew it was over. Maybe the guy will rise to the occasion, but I also have concluded the Presidency is itself a victim of industry capture and is therefore powerless. I bet they don't even let "Renegade" near the nuclear football.
With statistics like these, speaking of football, you get the feeling that this game is in the third quarter, but it's really time to head to the parking lots to beat the traffic. Or stampede. I also think about that every time I go to a Walmart or Dick's, and see the little sign behind the cash register: "Due to unprecedented demand, there is a strict limit of TWO (2) boxes on the following ammunition. . . . " Go look for it yourself, and then ponder the wisdom of the crowds.
Truer words have never been spoken...
You can actually find ammo at Wal-Mart? Everytime I go there the shelves are empty except for the shells nobody wants. I ask the associate if Wal-Mart has stopped selling ammo like K-Mart and he say's not in the least. I think Obamie has ordered Wal-Mart to stop carrying bullets. Well, that's what this lone right wing nut job thinks anyway!
If you don't like it, you can shove it up Obama's ass!
Don't forget the science czar, John P Holdren, who subscribes to several eugenic schools of thought.
http://www.examiner.com/x-722-Conservative-Politics-Examiner~y2009m7d16-...
And about the debt thinger...
"This situation is economically impossible; at some point, U.S. debt would reach a level so high that creditors would stop lending us money."
If it already clear that this is the determined path of the government and that point will inevitably be reached, why do creditors continue to lend us money?
The reason is that they haven't detached themselves from the dollar adequately. The issue is not going to be how fast debt is growing at this point, but how fast creditor nations are able to convert existing debt into other asset classes enough to their liking.
I agree completely. We can debate debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios 'till the cows come home, but the fact remains that there isn't enough money in the world to fund our deficit growth, and what money there IS in the world isn't going to be available to the U.S.
the right ratio to watch is marginal
productivity of debt which is negative which
means that all of this debt bloat will continue
to contract gdp....
even if someone reports 3% gdp next quarter (
which would be a statistical miracle) it
is within the margin of error and still be
zero....
Business Day
This report talks like all this stuff will happen sometime in the future, but it is already happening. TIC data this year shows foreigners have sold our bonds. Ben's QE has cashed them out of more of our bonds. I think only the Fed is buying agencies now, so the chain of events is already in motion. Government isn't even talking about saving. Obama's budget shows he isn't concerned about any of this.
"in 3 generations" - in alabama, that would be around 26 years.
Everyone's been takin' their fuuny pills!
Everyone's been takin' their funny pills!
Get off me, daddy, yer squishin my cigarettes...
... jeez just hand 'em to ur brother and tell him to light me one
Funny stuff... its interesting how most states have their own unique stereotypes...
Well, you know what they say in Alabama every time stats come out... thank Gawd for Mississippi.
lol
Is it time for West Virginia jokes?
Serve um up...
What's the most confusing day in West Virginia?
Father's Day.
lol... OK here are a few Minnesota jokes courtesy of Jeff Foxworthy (and they are spot on for us... not just a parody)... you might live in Minnesota if:
are you sure?
26:3=8.6
Two generations or 39 years I can see.
How did you solve the captcha?
Ghost...Yes, not if we don't pay it back. Although I think they can keep this going longer than we think because of
1. Residual belief in money being a true store of value
2. Residual belief that the dollar is a safe haven
3. Monetizing the debt
On point 3, I bet if you could audit deep enough into all of the books of The Fed, The Treasury, and Goldman Sachs you find they have been monetizing for a good while. When you are dealing with numbers this big, it wouldn't be difficult in my opinion to inject 20 - 30 billion a month of pure magic commas and zeros and no one would no the difference.
Americans will reap it. The fascist in charge in charge is the fascist they voted for and it is clear to all this uneducated low life piece of thieving crap hates America. They had the option to vote for a war hero that loves America but he was too old and more importantly too WHITE. All those supposedly educated white people that vote for the nappy headed fascist for the same reason 94% of the black folks voted for him they are RACIST. It seems all those folk have one thing in common they believe the government can help them LOL Good luck with that.
Anon 59430: Great post dude, I say you sign up for a zero hedge account today because you are the type inspiration we need around here.
Seriously dude get yourself an avatar and a snappy name....I am thinking "I stomp on Nappy Heads" or something catchy!
Sarcasm, Tsf? Let’s hope so. Anon’s rant made me want to throw up.
I'm thinking it wasn't sarcasm... I actually went back to read some of TSF's comments and there seems to be an underlying current... but maybe TSF would like to step up to the podium and clear this up...
Come on now... don't you two fun-loving kids have some 'KKK' website that might get greater enjoyment from your intelligent commentary... take your white sheets and move along... you don't want to be late for the cross-burning... if you just don't know where to start you might want to check out www.kkk.com ... I think they will really like that snappy new name that "They steal from..." has so cleverly devised.
Amen.
Abelard
MinnesotaVERYnice!!!
Yeah, it was sarcasm. Sorry Tsf. Forgot my A.D.D. meds.
It's not nice to be snarky.
Oh, don't let my name deceive you... nice is not all I am... its just what I am most of the time... you know us Minnesotans. There are likely many minorities (asian, black, native american, etc...) who enjoy reading this blog... and when I stumble across that antiquated racial bullshit, nice goes out the door and in walks a big old snark :-)
A guy who crashed 7 government-owned planes in a less than stellar military career (bottom of the class from the academy)and picked Palin because she looks like a Fox newsreader is not the man to have in charge in financial or any other crisis.
Obama made fewer mistakes. Nuff said.
Thats pretty easy to do when one has zero qualifications. If "fewer mistakes" is what we're looking for in a presidential candidate its no wonder we're "victims" of decreasing quality in politics.
Don't blame me, I voted for Ron Paul.
"mathematically impossible"-hmmm where did we hear that
My predictions are (sadly) validated everyday....
Unfortunately this masses lack the knowledge to realize what is going on.
American politicians do not have the will to do what is needed....unfortunately the decision will be made for America regardless of how many Chinese flags are flown at the White House.
In the meantime China continue's do smart things with its money...like not buy UST....
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-09/04/content_8653967.htm
Great mechanism to launder their Treasuries and diversify into Euros and Yen without upsetting the applecart.
More IMF representation is just the icing on the cake.
Kudos China...
Obama and Geithner said they would reduce the deficit by half in 4 years.
Lloyd B. apologized.
Ergo, the deficit is a force for good.
Having our debt denominated by dollars will lessen the shock of eventual devaluation. Such was not the case of many other countries that experienced hyperinflation and complete currency collapse (e.g. Wiemar Germany). For them, once their currency devalued, they had to print proportionally more money to continue to service their debt, due to deteriorating exchange rates.
Dollar denominated debt carries with it a "get out of jail free" card. The US could simply halve the value of its money and halve its debt. Obviously it will make a lot of people unhappy (middle class, foreign investors, debt holders), and will also make it impossible for us to live beyond our means to the degree we have in the last couple years (not necessarily a bad thing) as nobody will lend to us again for a long, long time. It will also cause a wrenching rebalancing in asset prices and standard of life for American consumers. While disruptive, these things alone will probably not destroy America. America is still the most ordered, rational country on earth, and those in power, more than in any other country are obedient to the rule of law (though far from good enough).
That being said, the US Government will HAVE to raise taxes, cut spending - HAHA!... *cough*... sorry - raise taxes some more, and borrow money denominated in yuan or yen or gold, or pay extremely high interrest rates. It will be interesting to watch. Has the 40 year experiment of fiat currencies come to an end?
you nailed it - but it might take another 40 yrs for the chickens to come home to roost...maybe 20yrs or perhaps 10 or less yrs - but it's coming
"America is still the most ordered, rational country on earth, and those in power, more than in any other country are obedient to the rule of law (though far from good enough)."
Do you actually believe this pulp? Have you ever set foot outside the US once in your life? The US system of government is put to shame by governments in foreign countries with the national population equal to a Big 10 university. The rationality of our government is near the bottom, not that far from Iran (where magic rules and truth is beyond irrelevant), and the rule of law here has never been all it's claimed, was started on the path of serious demolition by Bush II and has been pretty much wiped flatter than Nagasaki in 1945 by the actions of Obama's administration.
Here's a short list of countries that are far ahead of us: Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Denmark. Chile and Belize would not be far behind in our own hemisphere either. Oh and Iceland would have made the top of that list prior to their meltdown - hmmm, interesting.
You say, “Dollar denominated debt carries with it a ‘get out of jail free’ card… Obviously,” you say, “it will make a lot of people unhappy (middle class, foreign investors, debt holders), and…will also cause a wrenching rebalancing in asset prices and standard of life for American consumers…That being said, the US Government will HAVE to raise taxes…” And you call this a “get out of jail free” card?
I’ve said it once, and I’ll say it again. Contrary to what you imply, a majority of baby boomers have tasted the bitter fruit of hardship and disillusionment much of their lives, and the fat lady hasn’t sung, yet. And to rub salt in their wounds, the MSM is now misrepresenting them so the government won’t have to pay out the value of the Social Security and the Medicare that they've paid into all their working lives. At the same time, Bernanke is destroying the value of their pensions and 401(k)s by devaluing their purchasing power.
Most baby boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, have had to live “within their means” on the paychecks of two wage earners. Only a tiny percentage send their elderly parents to nursing homes. Many actually incur expenses from their elderly parents who increasingly are being forced into reverse mortgages just to stay in their homes. Thus, Fed policy even is destroying what little inheritance boomers would have received from their parents.
Yuppies in 1985 were defined as 25- to 39-year-old baby boomers who lived in metropolitan areas, worked professional or managerial occupations, and earned at least $30,000 if living alone and $40,000 if married or living with someone else. Using that definition, there were only four million yuppies in 1985—constituting just 5 percent of all baby boomers.
Yuffies were defined as baby boomers making less than $10,000 a year…a full 40 percent of the baby boom generation. In 1985, according to Probe, yuffies were roughly eight times as numerous as yuppies. In the 1990s the trend continued…
By 1983…a 30-year-old baby boomer needed to commit 44 percent of his income to meet the carrying charges on a median-priced house. That same year, 65 percent of all first-time baby boomer homebuyers needed two paychecks to meet their monthly payments…
By the end of the 1970s, Fortune magazine estimated that baby boomers had effectively lost ten years’ income when compared with the earnings of the generation just preceding them… Changes in the corporate world throughout the 1980s exacerbated the problem. “Downsizing,” “streamlining,” “merging” and "offshoring" by major corporations eliminated whole levels of middle and upper management. Belt-tightening measures in the 1980s forced boomers to be content with lower wages and smaller wage increases.
It was predicted salaries would “probably barely keep up with the cost of living and taxes…looking at very modest wage increases in the 1990s.
And, now, look at what Obama and his House of Democrats have in store for “boomers”; they’re getting old, and the most healthcare that they rate on Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel’s grim Reaper Curve is “minimum.” Oh, yes, the rule of law: first dehumanize, and then destroy.( Probe 1991) http://www.leaderu.com/orgs/probe/docs/disillus.html
Great rant!
Stone cold correct. Minus the death panels.
Oh stop making sense.
Embrace the chaos.
Funny how that works... however Obama should not forget that "old people" vote... er ... for him unfortunately.
not complaining - but sometimes when I visit ZH I get what amounts to porn advertisements - does that have something to do with Robo's posts? ideally I would prefer ads for http://www.netjets.com/ or perhaps www.churchillyachts.com but http://www.evonyonline.com/evonyb1t.html?google5&gclid=CIzYiPKb2ZwCFYdB5... ... not with the computer in I use here in the public library
I think it will serve up ads that get the most clicks... and it uses past clicks as its guide... when the website switched over to its new platform the ads were really a complete mismatch to ZH readers or content... now it seems to be better aligned... and with the case of the 'porn' ads that reflect the male bias of ZH... someone else was complaining about that today also...
Use Firefox with the AdBlock and NoScript add-ons and you won't have to see anything you don't allow, and be more secure of your own data into the bargain.
sorry for being off topic ( again ) but you HAVE TO hear this tune; one of the best poems/electronic/hip-hop tunes i have heard in a long time; a must hear http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKum7WWeq0Y
Dark Shit CB, not there yet myself. God help the fool - one by one. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.338_Lapua_Magnum
dark shit indeed SloSquez; but nevertheless a possible outcome of the actions done for the past century. I thought that that eschatology we have eliminated with the terror of Hiroshima and Nagasaki; hope we did; but if SHTF this outcome is the easiest and most productive.
"Easiest and most productive" - maybe. As for me and mine - don't bring it weak. Me thinks it won't work out for ya - guaranteed. Agreed a possible outcome, no doubt.
i don't think you understood what i was trying to say. I don't condone nor support that kind of outcome, but just saying that; if considering all the " benefits " that kind of event would produce for those at the top, and how many crucial problems on all levels would solve; i don't think they would hesitate to start a thermo-nuclear global war. If humanity was capable of genocidal behavior via different classes of weapons, throughout its history; the outcome is more than plausible.
h = (sqrt(4pi*A-(A^2))/2pi)R. A funnel indeed. In order for the goal to be achieved, the herd will need to be thinned. No doubt. My point, and it was not directed at you necessarily, I have taken precautions to increase the liklehood of me and mine. The end game, in my opinion, is shaped like a funnel and more than plausible. Oligarchy in force.
I highly recommend reading Jared Diamond's book "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" and particularly the chapter on Rwanda. It's horrible, but it's good to know. Between that and Gerald Celente's comments, I think the thoughtful should ponder the serious danger of manufactured wars for political and economic gains by the elites. It's gloomy to think about, alright, but it's better to be aware and be the first out of the self-immolating country than being the "last."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_%28book%29
Sound like something Celente could have written... pretty dark... but massive world wars seem to cycle (I'm sure you would know the cyclical stats better than I) and the next one that we enter will be the first one really equipped with such significant weapons of mass destruction... makes me think of the book "The Road"... did you read that... it haunts me... coming out as a movie this Fall.
Think I'll go get a cookie.
nice. really like that.
no i am confused. cant find anything new here.
oh your dying.
The extrapolation fallacy. How many times have we seen this? According to Bill Clinton's people, we would be running a $5T surplus right now, LOL!
Don't be a dupe for a bunch of charts.
There will be no policy changes until the bitter, bitter end, and then the policy "change" will be a world war.
Obviously, these guys have never been educated by Pete Stark on why debt makes the country richer.
that was the asswipe's name i was trying to
remember earlier today...thanks for reminding
me of asswipe's alias....
RobotTrader... i really, really want to see all of you.
I didn't see this anywhere in this particular thread and have not gotten to others but...
FIVE MORE BANKS DOWN THE TUBES!
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
A moment of silence please...
...while we stop to honor those 'not to big to fail' institutions who were not politically connected enough (or who didn't give big enough campaign contributions) to survive in this new world order...
Interested to hear any theories on the geographic distribution of the failed banks. Ok, the aggregation in CA and NV and FL is pretty obvious. But GA is the king of the failed bank, and the Georgia housing boom was less egregious than the aforementioned. Why there? Why so little in, say, Northern Virginia or suburban Boston, both of which were full-borne bubbles (though still nowhere near Vegas or Miami).
It is interesting that 4 of the 5 banks that failed today were in the Midwest... not what you would typically think of as high risk in terms of residential or commercial real estate...
"Five more banks down the tubes"
They are being consolidated. Bad assets/losses being socialized and good assets/profits being privatized. It is not just the banking industry but also
healthcare, insurance, education and media.
Speaking of media...is it just me noticing the types of movies that have come out recently depicting how we could be living our lives in the not to distant future? Just in the last 30 days I have seen the following flicks: The International (very good )
"In the Time of the Butterflies"
The true story of three sisters who, in their own ways, opposed the corrupt dictatorship of the Dominican Republic in the 1950s. (good movie, plus Salma...ohh Salma!)
"Children of Men"
In a future world where humans can no longer reproduce, a pregnant woman has a chance to save humanity. I had no interest when this first came out but I was channel surfing and it was actually very good.
Minority report: guilty before the crime is committed?
from L to W to U -- I would suggest that the great Professor has now officially jumped the shark
Roubini: "U-shaped" recovery is possiblehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Roubini-Ushaped-recovery-is-rb-3221405059....
Jumping the 'Great White' and hedging at the same time... Interesting.
Whistling a happy tune yet covering his ass on the downside. Either he doesn't have a clue (unlikely) or he's gone to the dark side without having the balls to burn his bridges. Time will tell.
I agree... I read that today... and I thought how in the world could you go from a the up-leg of V, which we are now trending, to a U... its not possible... you would have to go back down to have a hope of it being a U... and the act of retracment itself would make it a W.
I dont think he's talking about the stock market. He's talking about the economy.
Good point... I was going to say the stock market is reflective of the economy at large, the hopes of the populous, an investment in the future of our gleaming corporations... but then I remembered... it isn't at all... the stock market simply is gambling, computers, HFT, frontrunning, and fun&games... so you are right... I am wrong...
So we default. Big deal. Russia did. See any Napoleons or Hitlers invading to collect? In "Red Dawn", everyone gets to play. We're already pre-programmed. Time to cull the herd and eliminate toxic RE. WHO's your daddy, BIStch?