This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The CRFB Sees Locusts, Plagues And Lots And Lots Of Budget "Impossibilities" In America's Future
The Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget Project has released its most recent BudgetWatch report, "The Cost of 'Current Policy'", which while required reading for all mathematically inept professionals in the administration (all of them), will likely get zero attention, due to conclusions such as this one:
This situation is economically impossible; at some point, U.S. debt would reach a level so high that creditors would stop lending us money. The question, though, is how the situation will be resolved. Will politicians confront the policy choices or delay them to the point where they will be forced upon us due to a fiscal crisis? The longer we wait to take on these issues, the worse they will get and the more painful it will be to change course.
Everyone hates those who tell the unsugarcoated truth (especially CNBC, whose guest policy has shifted to only inviting "analysts" who agree with Larry Kudlow that double digit unemployment is the greatest thing to happen to America). Alas, it is these very people who are usually correct, however their perspective is completely useless in retrospect.
So here are the CRFB's loathsome observations:
US Budget Watch has constructed its own “current policy” baseline by assuming select policies do not conform to current law (see http://crfb.org/blogs/understanding-currentpolicy for details).2 Over the next decade, keeping certain policies in place would result in roughly $3 trillion less in revenues than is scheduled under law and close to $2.5 trillion more in spending, including interest. Complying with current policies without offsetting the costs would result in drastically larger deficits between 2010 and 2019 and would cause the ten-year deficit total to grow from an already dangerously high $7.1 trillion to $12.6 trillion. Debt held by the public would rise to over 90 percent of GDP by 2019, as opposed to 68 percent without those changes.
And this:
With public debt accumulating on a compounding basis, extending current policies would create an even more dire long-run picture. CBO’s Alternative Fiscal Scenario, which generally assumes current policy (although it has not been updated to reflect CBO’s latest economic and technical assumptions), projects deficits will rise to 10 percent of GDP by 2027 (rather than 3.6 percent under current law), exceed 20 percent by 2045 (as opposed to 7 percent), and reach 42 percent by 2080 (rather than 18 percent).
You read that right folks: in 3 generations, deficits will reach an unfathomable 50% of GDP! Obama's legacy is to effectively enslave America to its creditor interests.
As for that $9 trillion 2019 deficit? Why, even that is low:
Primarily due to the cost of renewing most of the 2001/2003 tax cuts, indexing the AMT, and allowing physician payments to grow, the president’s own budget projects a 10-year deficit of more than $9.1 trillion. CBO would likely have estimated deficits closer to $10 trillion under the president’s budget.
And probably the most amusing observation is the CRBF's observation of discretionary spending:
Though not technically “current law,” the CBO baseline makes assumptions regarding the growth of discretionary spending that are probably unrealistically low. As a matter of convention, CBO assumes that discretionary spending (including supplemental spending for overseas operations) will grow roughly with inflation. In reality, the discretionary spending level is set annually by Congress, and absent any caps it can grow at any rate. Historically, the growth rate has been much higher than inflation— often closer to the pace of GDP growth.
At the same time, the cost of continuing the current policy of annually increasing discretionary spending is quite high. If regular discretionary spending is allowed to grow with GDP as opposed to inflation, it would add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the next ten years (excluding interest). Even after assuming a gradual phase-down in spending for the war in Iraq, discretionary spending would still be $1 trillion higher than in CBO’s baseline.
And that's where you get an extra $1 trillion in additional budget deficits.
And the CRFB's unpalatable conclusions which will definitely be ignored by SPARC clusters, who, like the rating agencies, are only capable of chasing upward momentum:
The mounting debt under such a scenario would likely crowd out private investment to a significant degree, resulting in stunted economic growth. At the same time, it would ensure that government interest payments would consume a large and rising share of the budget, leaving little room for anything else. And, at some point, our rising debt would make continued borrowing prohibitive, as our lenders and investors cease their large-scale purchasing of U.S. Treasury bonds. If it came to this, the result would likely be a serious fiscal and economic crisis, followed by steep and perhaps crippling tax increases and spending cuts.
In essence, the very future of the American system is at stake. And somehow nobody in the administration is willing to do anything to prevent what will be a certain cataclysm absent some miraculous diametric shift in policy. Which of course will never come, as Obama has to be very worried about his sliding popularity and upcoming mid-term elections, while the oligarchy of Wall Street knows too well it has at best 2 years to collect on bonuses, and option incentives for massively mispriced underlying stocks, before everything eventually comes crashing down. And when it does, everyone will take off in their Textron made jets (which will by then likely be a Goldman LBOed company, purchased once the Conviction Buy becomes a Conviction Sell, and Goldman stealthily purchases all the stock), to live happily ever after on some quiet Pacific Island, far from the pitchfork armed crowd of what was formerly the American middle class (as all boats will have been purchased by Optiver's market manipulating liquidity providing multi-quadrillionaires).
h/t Richard
- 14205 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -




The CRFB projections exclude their realization. I know how this movie ends...
All roads from here lead to WAR, before the Global banking elites allow their empires to be torn down, Nucs will fly billions will die. Viva la Resistance
i REALLY REALLY REALLY point all US citizens and residents to take a look at this; and mind you this is not an independent organization; but an organization devoted solely to Barack Obama; and NOT the institution of POTUS http://blog.heritage.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/highlightedversion.jpg
CB... here is the website http://www.barackobama.com/ for Organizing for America... I can't find it on their website and it is supposedly an event that will occur in the near future... I think is a hoax from a right-wing organization? (And I am neither right or left wing... I waffle around in the middle depending on my mood) Should be on that website if it was legit...
this is the second " issue " of the same article with a different URL http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/healthcareorganizingevent/gpk48v
and this is the first edition of the same article which was taken down; but the URL is still listed on barackobama.com if you type into Google " 2 phone calls on 9/11+barack obama" http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/healthcareorganizingevent/gpk4cj
the one which was taken down appears on the top of the search results and the second edition is beneath it. If you don't trust me do the exact search like the one i have written above and you shall see fro yourself.
OK i have managed to retrieve the original article; you can find it here http://74.125.113.132/search?q=cache:3kI-WRLXCWwJ:my.barackobama.com/page/event/detail/healthcareorganizingevent/gpk4cj+2+phone+calls+on+9/11&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Oh no... I trust you... CB you are a 'say it like it is' kind of a guy... facts are your friend and you very eloquently use them to your advantage. I think Obama needs to get a little more control of his 'greenshoot grassroots' people... they are indirectly speaking for him on a website that bears his name... and by the way Cheryl and her daughter who hasn't had a checkup in 3 years gets no sympathy from me... her daughter has a full-time job and if she can't save up $200 in 3 years for a check-up then I don't think she is really interested in having a check-up (but I bet she has a cell-phone that she coughs up $45/month)... I provide very cheap health insurance to our full-time employees and because of a small employee participation of $30.00/month the majority of them don't take it... but they drive around in new cars and they all have cell phones... some of this health insurance issue is about priorities...
Wow...
All 50 States are coordinating in this – as we fight back against our own Right-Wing Domestic Terrorists who are subverting the American Democratic Process, whipped to a frenzy by their Fox Propaganda Network ceaselessly re-seizing power for their treacherous leaders.
Obama better start pre-screening what goes up on that site with his name attached... that is not good... christ there are crazies on the right and the left... I'll stick with my middle ground.
I, personally, have never seen the likes of what I am witnessing right now. The only thing I have to compare it to is maybe Vietnam. It's Bizarre.
Vietnam ? In was thinking more in the line of a country which became dictatorial during the 30s and ended in ruins in 45. But OK; lets go with Nam.
'30 - '45 sounds good. I still say it is extremely bizarre. School speech coming up shortly and all hell will be raised.
By the way, I just signed up for My.BarackObama.com for shits and giggles, this should be good.
This period in history is absofuckinglutely unique and at the same time it has many rhymes with previosu periods.
I'm partial to looking at the current historical period as a hybrid of the end of the Great Britain Empire and their subsequent loss of the pound of reserve currency status and the fall of rome. with rome the whole shigdig matches, including ridiculous currency debasedment to fund debt. and the whole inequality thing and oligarchy control.
How is this any different then what most politicians do? My god. Yes, compare the man to Hitler, this is so much like Nazi Germany. By the way, I hate Obama, but for objective reasons, I will defend him over this crap.
Now if you want to compare us to a fascist state in terms of CORPORATIONS running our government, fine, I more then willing to have that conversation, but not over this crap and the big bad ACORN.
By the way, change your profile picture, and I know its was created by a Kucinich supporter.
Kucinich is da bomb!
By the way, change your profile picture, and I know its was created by a Kucinich supporter.
Here's a big FUCK YOU Silver Bullet coming across the ocean and directed to you. I have not listen to a single person in my life and what the fuck makes you think i will take my avatar down. Oh and another FUCK YOU. ( do not piss me off. I loose the Cheeky part of my username and just become Bastard ). Also DO NOT bring partisanship into this debate because i do not like to be treated as a retard or a moron; i know it makes it easier to you and your understanding, but i have no wish into facilitate those two requirements you so eagerly seek so you could engage yourself into a meaningful multi-angle debate.Oh and my parallel with '33-'45 Germany is not based on Obamas policy but simply on the things W enacted and executed during his 8 terrible years " running " the show.
No shit. CB types fast.
but this is not about politics; it is simply because he used ad hominem. Hey man; i defend myself the best i can. ( also i apologize for the use of profanity in the comment in made in response to you Silver Bullet. Should've used more tactical approach, and i tried to edit the post but " access denied " by ZH.)
Easy Cheeky, some of your powerful brain mantra was leaking out and a zombie came by to scarf up the magnetic resonance.
Easiest way to escape is to say Shit for Brains, most zombies can't tell the difference and will easily accept the offer.
Sorta like Cash for Clunkers.
Christ sakes Andy... its the bewitching hour and the drinks are flowing... step in and break this up will ya...
It looks like someone is an angry drunk, getting towards the end of your fifth of scotch are we? I was not trying to bring parisanship into this. I mentioned Kucinich simply becuase I expected a response of calling me out as a leftist for criticizing your picture. I want no part of politcal debate.
Furthermore, you have a point that our country is drifting towards, or already is, being run by corporations. However when people bring up the smallest, most trivial parts of a problem you only serve to discredit your point. I'm just saying stick to the substantive part of the debate, like what goes on between Washington and Corporate America, not Socialist Obama posters, death panels, hitler mustaches, and Glenn Beck.
Hey douche bag, "what goes on between Washington and Corporate America" is "about Socialist Obama posters, death panels, hitler mustaches, and Glenn Beck".....MORON!
I'm not even sure how to respond to this comment.
And to cheeky, maybe you should pour yourself a drink, help take the edge off. At least, thats what I do.
Marlboro Red does the trick for me ( 2 boxes that is )
Right.
Right what?
I assume you mean what you quoted from my comment is a factor, but.....well, if you want to take that side of the debate, be my guest. Enjoy.
It's all a game. All of it! Point, counter point. Posturing, nothing else.
By the way... since it is past midnight and everyone has moved into banter mode... does anyone know of a way that when you go into your user account under 'track' and then click on an article to see the new comments... to have the new comments identified so you don't have to go back and reread everything to determine what is actually new... I know that it will initially set you to read the first new comment... but if there are 5 comments mixed into another 50 comments it can be tough going... I just want to know if I am missing something that would make it much easier to review new comments...
i have suggested a month ago to Marla, that ZH should have a comment system similar to that MW had before they fucked everything up. For example. When you post a comment; that comment gets " mapped " into your account and whenever someone leaves the response to is you can see it without going trough all comments. Also a function " track comment " under every comment would be good if you wish to track responses to the comments which are not your own. I know this is not the best idea how to solve the comment jungle, but it is nevertheless a viable one and would make debate between registered members far more dynamic and consistent. Oh and after 3 days the comment gets erased from your profile so that ZH doesn't have to pay for extra storage.
Marla... if you are listening... I agree that it would be nice to reduce the 'comment jungle'... it is really hard to go through and re-read numerous comments multiple times... whether you are looking for responses to your own... or to someone else's interesting comment...
Thanks CB
i do not drink; have no access to Glen Beck program or for that matter any US channel and do not support any form of MSM; and do not regard that sector as a credible and un-biased source of information.
no effing way man; i hate wine; but in my " demon " years i drank cca. 1.5 bottle of whiskey a day and 2-2.5 over weekend days. Crazy times. But i have never liked wine.
Oh; Andy; check out the JPM article; we got junked like 30 quadrilliontrillioncentillion times.
Those sound like some great years to me.
would not want that for no one. From Dec. 2003 till Feb. 2005 i have dropped from 280 pound to slightly above 140, and it took me almost a year to climb to 190. :D And have permanent damaged liver function ( only 69% is functioning like it should ) and had other types of problems. No way in hell i would like to go trough that ever again.
Good for you... that takes a lot of strength... but you might want to try a little more sleep and a little less Red Bull to complement your new health regime...
sleep does not do good to me; the more i sleep the more tired i am. and i have cut back on red bull; i try to drink only instant Nescafe to keep me going. like Paul Erdos said " Mathematics is turning coffee into theorems " ;D
That's rough. I have a history of alcoholism in my family, and with my own actions, I can relate.
Hope you are doing alright otherwise.
Woodford Reserve, Four Roses, Buffalo Reserve, Knob Creek, or Maker's Mark? What's your pleasure? Trust me - I'm right in the thick of that. My preference - Knob Creek or Woodford Reserve.
Jack; straight out of the bottle. But when i wanted to enjoy the liquid itself; always either four roses or makers mark.
Not pushin, but you should try Woodford Reserve. Smooth as silk. None better IMHO.
Also i would like to add that my comparison my seem outrageous and factually without basis; but i can assure that is not true. I have a vast personal experience supplemented with over 20000 pages which i have read since 2001 and which describe the dynamics and paradigmatic shifts which occurred in the period of 2001-2009; and also in those 20000 pages there is material about Germany in the period 1918-1945 written by eminent historicist's and it describes almost all segments of German society in that period. So i can firmly state that my observations and the use of; to you; outrageous comparisons are conducted with the most highest form of rigour; and further i can assure that i do not use hyperboly in my statements nor describe the same process to the facts i present here.
Clinton screwed the USA with NAFTA and Bush II with everything he did; EXCEPT Afghanistan and Iraq war ( shocking point of view coming from me isnt it )
those people knew what they were doing; and had every number crunched and every data point incorporated to every possible model. They didn't play to lose those two games. And the gain will not be visible in the next 15-20 yrs.
I've just finished reading this convo / exchange, very interesting. One of the first things that jumps out at me is just how important an actual understanding of history is, and just how poorly history is taught in U.S. schools. Like most of you, I had to learn it myself by reading it long after I left school. The historical parallels are making us feel creepy for a reason: they're correct, and we have every reason to be scared out of our wits by them.
If you don't want your children living in a massive slave-labor camp, the time for political action is right now. Right now, and for quite awhile to come. The price of liberty is vigilance, and when necessary, action.
Like many here, I have no desire to engage in the stupid left-right thing. The left-right argument virtually guarantees a "revolution within the walls of the prison". Bush One was my own personal awakening; my revulsion for national-power government has only grown through Clinton, Bush Two, and Obama. They're all a pack of lying sacks of shit. Their goals are the same: a great, consolidated government.
The left vs. right thing is a non-starter. I'm not convinced it's not an NWO plot. Look at the facts on the ground.
1. Bailouts - Bush-lots. Obama-lots.
2. Wars - Bush 2. Obama 2.
Rhetoric aside, both men are remarkably similar in terms of execution on the major issues of the day. Yes, Obama wants a little more healthcare and cap and trade, but Bush was no slacker when it came to spending the people's money. I'm amazed that more people don't see it. The puppetmasters must be very pleased.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 124.7 in the week to August 28 from a downwardly revised 124.3 in the previous week, originally reported as 124.4.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
yes where is Paul Volcker?
I think he's still alive. Its funny how people who have done the job before to some critical acclaim don't even seem to be consultated today.
Probably because he'll tell them to do the rational thing.
POTUS had to bring him into the advisory committe. Hence, he used his name during campaign. Just as he did appointing Hillary to SOS and marginalized her power. Our POTUS only private employment experience is ACORN organizer.
Is it too late to vote for the white guy??
Since this thread is about deficits and all...how about we hear bets for the quarter when US trade deficit turns into surplus.
I'd go with Q4 2010
i take that bet and give you 10:3 odds if your bet is between a C-note and a Kilo and raise you that odds 11:3.5 if you put above Kilo. So is it a bet ?
Geez, I don't have a kilo on me...but I'll take the 10:3 bet for an 8ball.
its a deal. Now.Send me your credit card number, address and social security number so i could prepare all the paper work.
Finally, someone who will have financial dealings with me!
Name Tim Geithner
Address: 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20220
credit card number is ummm well you'd have to ask Benjamin, I'm out of touch of all thse things.
well Sir; it is no problem at all if you don't have a credit card; your name will suffice and we will, based on that, create a synthetic derivative of hypothetical potential value based on our financial model for " no card holder ". It was nice to do business with you.
Thank you and sincerely yours
AIGFP
And I am assuming you think this will happen because...
A. We will be producing so much 'stuff' with our excess capacity that everyone across the world will be just jumping for joy to get products with "Made in America" stamped on the bottom.
B. The dollar will be so devalued that our 'stuff' will look really, really cheap to every other nation that did not devalue their currency to such a degree, and they will be snapping up our exports left and right.
C. US citizens will have no money left to buy any imports, so any exports we manage to create will by default exceed our imports creating a trade surplus.
D. All of the above
C is my final answer, but E is my original reason: historical precendent. There has never been a country that has been able to sustain a perpetual trade deficit.
Yep... I forgot E... because if you had a perpetual trade deficit pretty soon your country would be 'empty'... ummm but isn't that what is kinda happening now... we are circling the bowl... swirling down towards the drain... somebody better jiggle the handle :-)
The flush is going to be spectacular. And on that note, I'm off to bed.
G'night.
I'm not a financial expert. But could someone explain to me just WHY the "worthless assets" that are "held in abeyance" (Ned Zeppelin on a previous post) CANNOT (or can they?) come to profitable life (possibly through some kinds of swaps) if the economy is indeed jump-started? If specific debt entities are indefinitely not written down, can the system recover? Is the fact that the assets are obscure and hidden a catalyst or a hindrance to recovery? Or are the assets a mixture of both catalyst and hindrance?
-AnonymousZero
The Plan with Soros as the architect...Here is the change you voted for:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjOLS7YLS5c
Bet on it. The people of the United States NEVER do anything peremptory. (Going into the Middle East ostensibly to bring the terrist fight to the perps is a ruse--we are there to provide an even greater deterrent to those who might harm Israel).
The only thing Americans 'understand' is Critical mode, which is understanding nothing at all.
Advertising my be picking up big, if google search queries are any indication:
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Linear&c...
Would love to know why
Maybe its desperation in such a challenging hyper-competitive landscape... the last hope before your business circles the drain?
The Trailer to the Ending of this story!!!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3V19YH9Azc
We must reduce government spending! It is amazing that even though we cant pay for our current entitlements, Obama wants to add more. Can the man not do basic mathematics?
I'm now ready to start my journey. Would you take my hand and show me the way to Ms. Evonyonline?
Wow, I missed all the fireworks after dark! The conclusions of the report are clear; headed on this path the US will go BK. PIMCO "hand shakers" will get taken down & anyone buying US mortgage debt or low in the capital structure securities or stocks is going to take the hit. TD's GNMA article was most "illuminating." I'm buying only what China buys & avoiding all UST debt or "FF&C" paper. I just don't like that BK flavor of "Kool-Aid."
The beauty of American-style capitalism: its international debt is denominated in a fiat currency which America and America alone can create. Moreover, every other major central bank around the world has adopted the same devaluation policy as the Fed.
There is no way the current system will collapse -- that would require a paradigmatic shift in fiscal/monetary policy by one of the world's most important economies. It won't happen in America, nor will it happen in Europe, or Asia. The Middle East needs higher oil prices, and has interests in America as well.
Economic conditions going forward will simply mean the suffering of millions of people in the developed world; in particular, those who are saddled with too much debt, have lost of their savings, and about to retire. Crime rates among seniors will soar, as they have in Japan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=as80aWlHdA1M
Other countries don't need to let their lack of a magic dollar printing computer get them depressed. Just use your magic euro, yen, .... computer to create your own crappy worthless fiat currency then call up the FED and swap one worthless currency for another.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UaghKGcYkx8
What is my 100 trillion dollar Zimbabwe bank note worth Double B?
Interesting dialog. Talking "politics" in America is equivalent to pissing in a fan...a complete waste of time. Republican, Democrat, very little difference. The "two party" system is a complete farce. Demopublicans as far as I am concerned. Political debates are nothing more than a distraction designed to keep the American sheeple focused on all that doesn't matter.
As for the inevitable collapse of this country, it had to happen. It is what it is...fait accompli. Everything in life is cyclical. It is our time is all. Could it be averted? Yes, but it won't...did I mention it was our time?
Prepare is all we can do at this point. The winners (if you can call them that) will be those that LOSE the least.
The sector where spreads are still wide by the pre-Lehman levels is financials and you definitely need a good analyst to work through the turds in that sector.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..
hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
Why doesn't Peter G. Peterson just come out and plaster his worthless name on the endless array of front groups he uses to kill Social Security. I thought his ego demanded nothing less than that. And it's hysterical reading all the Paulsies lapping up this treacle. You hate on Greenspan to no end yet he's listed on the board for this odious "foundation". I hope you enjoy the world where you spend ALL your time guarding your gold from the other "free" vultures waiting to club you and steal it. Might makes right, right?
Who is the Committee For A Responsible Federal Budget Project and why do all of these former Members, key staffers etc become so market oriented When They Are Out of Office? Because they are trying to atone for the bad acts when they were in power?
Prominent past and current board membersRoy Ash, former OMB Director for Nixon and Ford administrations
Nancy Kassenbaum Baker, former Senator from Kansas
Henry Bellmon, former Governor of Oklahoma and U.S. Senator from Oklahoma and co-founder of CRFB
Charles Bowsher, former Comptroller General of GAO under Reagan administration
Dan Crippen, former CBO Director from 1999-2003
Dick Darman, former OMB Director under George H.W. Bush administration
Vic Fazio, former representative from Oklahoma
William Frenzel, former representative from Oklahoma
Willis D. Gradison, Jr., former representative from Ohio
William H. Gray, III, former representative from Pennsylvania
Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former Director of CBO, economic advisor to McCain 2008 presidential campaign
James Jones, former chief of staff to Lyndon Johnson
Jim Kolbe, former representative from Arizona
James Lynn, former Director of OMB
David Minge, former U.S. Representative from Arizona
Jim Nussle, former Director of OMB under George W. Bush
Paul O'Neill, former Secretary of the Treasury under George W. Bush
June O’Neill, former director of CBO
Leon Panetta, former OMB Director and current director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Rudolph Penner, former CBO Director
Timothy Penny, former representative from Minnesota
Peter G. Peterson, former U.S. Secretary of Commerce and founder of Peter G. Peterson Institute
Robert Reischauer, former director of CBO and current president of the Urban Institute
John J. Rhodes, former representative from Arizona
Alice Rivlin, founding director of CBO, former member of Federal Reserve Board of Governors
Charles Schultze, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors
James Slattery, former representative from Kansas
John W. Snow, former Secretary of the Treasury under George W. Bush
Elmer Staats, former U.S. Comptroller General
Charles Stenholm, former representative from Texas
Eugene Steuerle, senior fellow at the Urban Institute
David Stockman, former Director of OMB under Reagan, former representative from Michigan
Robert Strauss, former chairman of Democratic National Committee
Lawrence Summers, former Treasury Secretary and current Director of the National Economic Council
Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve
David Walker, former U.S. Comptroller General and director of GAO
Joseph R. Wright, former director of OMB under Ronald Reagan
Wouldn't it be better to fund a massive reserve at the IMF, devalue the dollar a little and stop payments to China? Last I heard the was a Goldmanite running the IMF.
Th real issue is jobs. Stop the outsourcing, stop the importing and as technology destroys jobs either have the government fill in the gaps (decoupling employment from basic living) or reduce the work week (work share)
If we don't do these things any measures we make to fix the current issues will fail anyway. It more than a a few year problem