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Crude Back To Pre-Goldman Downgrade(s) Level

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For those curious what the half of life of not one, not two, but three consecutive Goldman crude downgrades is these days, the answer is - three days. It finally appears that the broader public is well-aware of just how business is done at 200 West. To all those who sold despite our warning that this is merely a shake out of the trembling hands, better luck next time. On the other hand, the squid, unlikely to accept defeat at buying crude at lower prices courtesy of panic sellers, will most certainly continue its onslaught against those who refuse to part with actually valuable assets and proceed with converting commodities into an infinitely dilutable and totally worthless combination of 75% cotton/25% linen.

 

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Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:27 | 1172838 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

The SQUID got it wrong ? LOL

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:34 | 1172887 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Nah, the squid got it right. They just suckered all their clients to go short so they could get long.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:38 | 1172902 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

counterparties.  Squid no longer has clients.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:06 | 1172968 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Excellent point. If they have clients they are certifiable morons because every doubletalk bullshit announcement the Goldmen make is a new Ph.D. thesis in mass psyops mind control and has so little to do with real market expectations it drives one to laughter or tears.

The Goldmen New English Dictionary:


counterparty  (?ka?nt??p??t?) 

— n  , pl -parties: chump, sucker, patsy, target, bag holder, fall guy


Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:39 | 1173167 malikai
malikai's picture

I loled.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:39 | 1174020 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

I could have swore that Goldman downgrade came at about noon Monday, at which the Crude was still 111ish.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:52 | 1173261 the mad hatter
the mad hatter's picture

when a doctor gives bad advice, he gets sued back to the stone age.

when an investment banker rips you off, he gets away with it.

 

Wall St. justices does not know the meaning of fudiciary duty.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 19:01 | 1174624 bruinjoe93
bruinjoe93's picture

+1E12

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 23:02 | 1175199 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Cause the dip then buy the dip

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:27 | 1172839 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

We knew this would happen. Now did gs short then buy or just buy?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:01 | 1172980 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Just look at the line. If it is going up, they were long. If it is doing down, they were short. If you can be in front of every trade, wouldn't you try to make money off every change?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:26 | 1172848 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Awfully quiet on the qaddafi front as well... PMs keep truckin, but not buying silver's move due to lack of 52s on the miners. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:31 | 1172870 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I saw a weird video yesterday of Qadaffi traveling around Tripoli in a convertible.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:39 | 1172890 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

whoever thought an entire government could make for such campy entertainment?

Where is the big buxomed "nurse."

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:39 | 1172913 pendragon
pendragon's picture

LOL the appearance with the umbrella barking like a dog in front of a bombed out building was my favorite...clinical insanity

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:46 | 1172929 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

If Goldman Sucks could solve the Africa/Middle East tension, then maybe their sellside operation would have been justified, but not even the "Free" World, led by such braggadocious figures like Sarkozy, Cameron, Hill Clinton, and Obama can "solve" the problems.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:50 | 1172940 Rikki-Tikki-Tavi
Rikki-Tikki-Tavi's picture

Most have been a body double - even he is not crazy enough for a stunt like that.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:00 | 1173289 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Lol. With an umbrella i assume..

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:02 | 1173305 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Lol. With an umbrella i assume..

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:29 | 1172854 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

GS clients deserve to die, penniless, in a gutter.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:29 | 1172856 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Always do the opposite of what Greedy Satan says.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:30 | 1172866 cbaba
cbaba's picture

Their customers learned what kind of shitty business they do, now everybody knows what the Squid is so that's why half life is 3 days.

 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:35 | 1172879 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Godman no longer has clients, just counterparties.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:30 | 1172867 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

I am not surprised. Even though you "can't eat oil"...the military sure needs this stuff as Rumsfeld repeatedly said. And next to food, oil is the most important commodity out there. Even BAC now says oil will rise to over $160 by the end of this year.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:33 | 1172873 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Equities up VIX down.  This means what?  QE3? Energy prices don't matter?  Debt ceiling irrelevant?   Or just that Greece, Portugal and Ireland won't be able to buy oil anymore.  The markets interactions are nonsensical.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:35 | 1172880 d00daa
d00daa's picture

"The market is not pricing in QE3.  The market is pricing in an economic boom, led by the US consumer."

 

-RobotTrader

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:41 | 1172908 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Eric King and General Jim are kicking sand in Robo's face again.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:50 | 1172938 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

yes! we few, we happy few, we band of silver brothers.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:47 | 1172934 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL! Robo took time out of his busy dumpster diving schedule to post the consumer is strong? What does he expect, a boost to food stamp and unemployment check sums?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:56 | 1172963 d00daa
d00daa's picture

I shit you not.  His exact quote.

I will never forget.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:36 | 1172874 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I was afraid that goldman no longer had cred.

I wanted to stay in gdxj at 42 something and jumped out.

I wanted to stay out at 40 something and jumped back in.

Now I have no fucking idea what to do.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:42 | 1172896 Just Observing
Just Observing's picture

Hell, that's easy.  Buy toilet paper, before the next roll size decrease hits along with the price per roll going up.

Not like your aren't gonna need it.

 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:36 | 1172885 milanitaly
milanitaly's picture

Their eur/usd outlook will go in the same way!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:37 | 1172898 nah
nah's picture

Pay on thru to the other side... Pay on thru to the other side

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:38 | 1172905 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Silver is getting whacked right now.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:49 | 1172937 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Silver getting whacked'? Its at 42.68.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:51 | 1172947 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Someone just dumped a whole lot of paper.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:56 | 1172961 Rikki-Tikki-Tavi
Rikki-Tikki-Tavi's picture

Is that what your GS sales rep just told you?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:24 | 1173078 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

GS sales rep told me to buy JULY SLV 7/16/2011 40.00 Puts today when silver popped up to 42.70.    They said that was the pivot. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:50 | 1172954 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

which planet

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:51 | 1172956 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Planet SLV

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:02 | 1172981 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well Ive got a real time chart of everything right here on the split screen...I dont see any silver whacking going on at all, 42.65.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:27 | 1173096 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I have $42.55 right now.  Last half hour of NYMEX today was strange, got me worried. 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:03 | 1172986 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

even SLV is at a high

come back to earth

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:37 | 1173169 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

SLV is not very accurate today.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:00 | 1172974 d00daa
d00daa's picture

lolwut???

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:40 | 1172906 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

As much as I despise Goldman & as a much as I value Zero Hedge, this is one of those calls that will turn out correctly for Goldman.

I'm not sure the good v bad or great v epicly horrible call ratio that is expected of Goldman or a similar firm of their slimy ilk, but correct calls have to be something greater than 1% of the time, I would assume.

It is perfectly clear that a very monstrous bubble in commodities is forming.

As for the global monetary base, it's amazing what popping bubbles can do to cremate a good chunk of that fiat in record time when the bubbles-they-start-a-burstin' (see Chinese real estate as of today for but one of many examples).

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:50 | 1172953 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whats the more monstrous bubble, in equities up 100% ONLY due to fiat printing and banker manipulation, or crops down all over the world, real food inflation due to a world awash in BennieBux, and oil in a world war footing?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:16 | 1173045 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Demand destruction is a real phenomenom and is vicious when it rears its head.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:27 | 1173109 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Re. demand destruction:  Look at the UK last month.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:31 | 1173121 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Well congratulations.  You have reached the truth.  Supply ain't gonna rise.  If there is to be relief, demand has to be destroyed.

Now the next step is to embrace methodology.

Nuclear weapons.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:32 | 1173133 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Supply would rise if marginal costs of increasing each additional unit of supply < profit made from selling each additional unit.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:36 | 1173152 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

True.  You can travel to the moon Titan and bring back its hydrocarbons, convert them to oil, and burn them.  Provided you can price them high enough to cover those costs.

Or, you can nuke Chinese.

Which is cheaper?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:03 | 1172992 d00daa
d00daa's picture

I do agree with this, and I'm hedging my paper positions accordingly.  There will still be ups and downs on this roller coaster as the end game plays out.

Long term, real money is king.  While I'm not adding physical at these levels, I'm sure as hell not dumping it.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:21 | 1173065 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I'm with you on this one, brother Truth,

Absolutely EVERYTHING feels bubblicious today.  Right now...criminal syndicate options junkies are using algos and ranges to print money on options...and then I think a great sucking sound...as just about everyone gets sucked down some cosmic bunny hole.

Honestly, long...short....commodities...this is one of those days when it seems very clear that we are all operating in a non market market...the wasteland that Ben Bernanke and the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street have made.

And anyway....Jan Hatzius is on the BlowHorn talking right now about a new indicator that Goldman has built to replace the old GDP indicator...because we all know that Domestic Product is no where in our immediate future.  So you tell me, man.

 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:54 | 1173258 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Feels eerily similar to the summer of 07. Well, except that unemployment in most developed nations, including the U.S., is about 300% higher, underemployment is about 200% higher, quite a few equities are even more irrationally priced now than then, banks are quantums of levels weaker and undercapitalized (even using face-saving but artificial asset valuation metrics) than then, there are 44.8 million on SNAP vs the then 23 million or so http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/bern... , and there are 14 million vacant housing units and we're on track for 1.3 million foreclosures this year....ehhh...I could go on...).

All those rich Chinese (see today's headlines as they're meager wages are swamped by inflation at a time when food comprises 30% of their cost of living) and Indians will ensure we don't get an epic crash of the system.

So commodities are a buy and equities are cheap.

Hopium is a hell of a drug, and the air is thick with the sweet, intoxicating aroma of Hopium.

/s

 

 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:23 | 1173626 web bot
web bot's picture

What... is... coming... is... not... going... to... be... pretty...

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:41 | 1172909 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

All this trading gobbledygook and who upgraded or downgraded what . . . people WAKE THE FUCK UP.

Oil has been north of $90/barrels in 3 of the last four years.  It has EXPLODED since 2000, with much of that happening long before Bernanke printed a single dollar.  Oil has been north of $100 in 2 of those last four years.

This Is Not Rocket Science.  If the rate it comes out of the ground can't keep up with the rate China and India want to burn it, people are going to die.  Wars are going to be fought.  And more people are going to die.

 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:40 | 1172917 Rikki-Tikki-Tavi
Rikki-Tikki-Tavi's picture

BEnron is not gonna be happy with an oil spike right before the next FOMC meeting, particular since it is the first meeting followed by a public press conference.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:42 | 1172923 Yield2Greatness
Yield2Greatness's picture

Goldman is fast becoming scum even to their loyals.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:44 | 1172931 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Just remember there is no inflation and nobody minds paying for it as per data today. Sooo rally!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:53 | 1172958 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

What the fuck! I just heard some analyst on CNBC call Bernanke "the bernank" HAHAHAHAHAHA. Surely they must be reading zerohedge

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:57 | 1172964 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

+100

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:36 | 1173443 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I believe that it was the QE cartoons that coined "The Bernank."

Even John Stewart knows the term.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 12:59 | 1172976 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

They need Oil to keep the Market up.  All of the correlating stocks are needed for the continuation of the pump.

Anyone notice how the Market dropped with the Oil Downgrade.  I am sure Bernanke called Blankfine and told him to lay off Oil as it was hurting the FED's image.  Even thought they will not admit that their Monetary Policy's are ramping Oil prices.

The real shame is all of the Money Americans are sending to Saudi Arabia and others, in addition to paying for all of the Bank Bailouts and higher food prices.  Americans cannot get a break from anyone.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:16 | 1173037 magpie
magpie's picture

Yes, those rich Sheiks have to double down on their Citibank shares with the new Petrodollars.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:22 | 1173070 Red Shield
Red Shield's picture

ZH readers already know this, but Goldman screws clients as equally as they screw everyone else in the quest to make money however possible.

http://act.demandprogress.org/act/investigate_goldman

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:28 | 1173117 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Who replaces GS's screwed over clients when they leave?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:34 | 1173151 Aristophanes
Aristophanes's picture

It is becoming common knowledge that anything said by Goldman is probably a lie.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:34 | 1173153 Aristophanes
Aristophanes's picture

BTFD.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:42 | 1173185 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

This is good news.

Let crude price explode and we may actually have governments invest money in alternative energy. Space race took mankind to the moon, but world can't even come up with alternative fuel?

 

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:45 | 1173204 malikai
malikai's picture

We burned a lot of gas going to the moon.

Sun, 04/17/2011 - 00:02 | 1177255 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The space shuttle dumps hundreds of pounds of refrigerant on computer components and vents them into atmoshphere. Burning gas is not the only problem with it. It also exposes an inherent game of pricing. The making up of some neglible environmental impact in an effort to drive r12 from a buck a pound to 7 bucks a pound for stupid r134.

And the serving of the greater good by a huge long convoluted loop of busting and destroying a ingrained tradition of low pricing power with a new tradition of rediculously monsterous pricing power.

And you wonder why the disovery of the true green movement mechanics was met with such hostility and ridicule. Which they keep trying to resurrect beause they do not have a plan B of what they want to control about us next. They have to and they MUST control our energy usage to maintain dominance. It fuels the industrial revolutions tech advantages and the IT revolutions computer aided lethality advantages.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:24 | 1173399 American Sucker
American Sucker's picture

You only have to go to the moon once to have gone to the moon.  You need to keep finding fuel.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:43 | 1173461 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Wait, someone with the name AldousHuxley believes in "government?"

Replace the word government with mafia, then ask yourself what kind of return would you expect from this "investment?"

BTW, government is the number one reason there aren't affordable alternatives today. Barriers to entry, my friend, barriers to entry.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 15:28 | 1173647 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The moon was an engineering problem (and we haven't been back for half a century).

Oil is a physics and geology problem.  Better engineering can't solve it.

There is no solution other than billions of deaths.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 13:52 | 1173251 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

I am still really surprised that a few lunatics have not paid a visit to Blankfeins residence and asked him a few questions with a bat?

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:45 | 1173479 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Those types have no idea who Blankfiend even is, let alone understand the outrage. Meanwhile, those that do, have a little more to lose, and thus are safely self-neutered.

By the time those groups over-lap, the banksters will all be sitting on a beach in another country, flown there by Uncle Warren Airlines.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:22 | 1173382 Fredd00
Fredd00's picture

Jump you fuckers!

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 14:34 | 1173438 r101958
r101958's picture

That is the difference between interpreting tech financial charts and the absolute fundamentals of finite resources. No matter how many financial charts they read it will not change the fact that energy and mineral resources are not infinite. I still smell desperation. They are still attempting to plug holes in the dam and they are missing some.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:19 | 1173911 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Fuck Goldman Sachs

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 16:39 | 1174015 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

I could have swore that Goldman downgrade came at about noon Monday, at which the Crude was still 111ish.

Sat, 04/16/2011 - 11:24 | 1175793 EZYJET PILOT
EZYJET PILOT's picture

Off topic I know but I've had time to reflect on the last two years and need some pointers to help my thinking process. The banks were primarily responsible for the crash were they not? I realize that the likes of Indymac, countrywide etc, were giving out liars loans left right and centre but were JPmorgan/GS to a smaller degree? 

In my mind the major crime was in bribing the ratings agencies and packaging the MBS as a solid investment. Do you think, this is an open question to everyone, that the banks knew from day one that this was going to blow up? They must have, it must have been considered a possibility, hence the requirement to bribe Moodys etc in order to get the shit rated AAA. 

I know this seems a bit dense but I'm playing catch up, having been asleep to the specific details to all of this when it occurred.

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