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Crude Closes At Highest Since Summer Of 2008, As Energy Prices Post QE2 Rising Faster Than In 2007-2008
Another "War On, War Off" day results in huge pain for all those who had expected oil to finally trend lower. Instead, the schizophrenic market decided to finally read the headlines from the past 3 days confirming that K-Daf is winning the war against Libyan rebels, even without an airforce, and despite the US' not so secret anymore CIA involvement, which among other things is likely funding and arming Al Qaeda. The end result was crude surging by nearly $3 intraday to the highest closing since August 2008, and Brent almost at $120 again while at the same time guaranteeing nosebleed(ing) inflation in Europe now that gasoline is on its way to $10/gallon. Within a day we will see just how serious OPEC was about that $120/barrel limit before it increases output, especially since it is now known that most of that excess capacity is a myth. What is far scarier, is that the annualized growth rate in Brent is higher since the Jackson Hole speech (at 127%) compared to the rate of rise entering into the Great Depression (104.25%) when the world had to blow up to bring energy prices lower. In other words, the Fed is once again back in the box where it needs to create a massive market crash to put energy prices back in their "deflationary" place.
Note the comparable rates of change going into the Great Redepression and into QE2:
And here is the market's assessment of the No QE3 argument:
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Marc Faber Bloomberg Interview - March 30 2011
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/68175846/
100s of interviews. He ever say anything new? Love you avatar. Inventive.
Drive along, drive by troll. William the Dumbass.
T, are you any relation to spanky Max or his dad Oz?
Bullish! This week /ES is directly correlated with crude prices.
good thing i'm long commodities
This could all reverse in a second...
Slaughterer - Its ok - no need to panic - CNBC --> Behind The Money: Traders Eye April 27th For Stock Market Correction so that gives us almost a whole month - Perhaps the New Normal will not be so bad - Jeff Immelt is scheduling Market Corrections - I approve this Message - Bo Obama
The reverse could also reverse in a second.
Volatile times ahead and I'm not just talking compounds, if you get my drift.
ORI
speaking of commodities i notice that invisible line at the 1440 mark on gold again. Amazing how they can use a computer to dictate that......now that is paper price is becoming a true mockery.....
That invisible line for Silver has moved from $26 to $28.....
do you mean $36 to $38?
Damn fat fingers! Yes; of course.
It was freudian
Sometimes a dick is just a dick.
Much like you smoke dick on a regular basis.
*Buy's new Bicycle
We need nuclear-powered cars.
OMG that's so bullish!!!
Way better than poor numbers.
Toyota, Honda and Nissan are already working on those.
All we need is once to force every asswhole who bids on oil - to take the delivery of oil. Then we can see supply and demand.
Or at the very least to release the information which hedge funds or finnacial institution holding position in oil. ( with names)
No, what you will get is a sudden drop in the price of oil, and then a sudden, sharp spike as the oil that was dumped runs out, followed by infinite volatility with a strong upward bias.
Speculators exist for a reason. They even out prices.
Agree, now when do we short?
Nothing, unless you want to get run over by the BB train. Only short in terms of gold.
okay, do you see silver at 50 then? Seems quite possible.
dickweed promised to leave the board when gold fails to reach 1500 by june
Like nature, I make no promises regarding anyone's survival. I see gold bouncing around for a bit (never said anything else), but the gold/silver ratio has got to correct, doesn't it?
Why?
lolwat? You have me confused with someone else, William the Bastard. I said I would leave if physical silver is ever available for $20 an ounce. I have never made any bets here with respect to gold, because I only hold 5%.
But how can we possible expect anything of a cock smoking pothead like yourself?
Biotech bubble about to inflate. It is 1980 again.
Speculators exist for a reason. They even out prices...
Once again, you're living in the past - this time by 20 years. Why aren't libertarians capable of understanding the modern world, and recognize the need for adaptation as economies and markets change?
You sound like J. Aron (Goldman Sachs) in 1991 arguing for hedging exemptions at the CFTC.
Now, walk into the modern world, where speculative money in commodity index funds grew by ~20X between 2003 - 2008, from roughly $13B to about $300B. The vampires at GSCI convinced institutional money managers to take on more risk with your retirement accounts and pour money into their index. That doesn't "even" prices; that shoots them to the fucking moon.
Likewise, the opposite is true, too. When prices correct, they dive into the ditch. Just look at oil in the past three years: $60 to $147 to $30 to $106. Where is the "evening of prices" there? Same with virtually all commodities. If you're a business reliant on these products, how can you possibly operate under these swings?
The argument that speculation evens out markets is really archaic.
If libertarians are ever to be taken seriously, you guys need to get in touch with reality and the modern world.
You're arguing against excess liquidity, not speculation. And that, most certainly, is the reality.
I'm blaming the drunks; you're blaming the beer.
Keep the drunks out of markets which are essential for everyday life: food and oil.
They say a broken clock is right twice a day.
BONG!!!!
What the fuck are you talking about? Are you honestly saying you don't think specs have any place in the market? And you are right, it's not about evening out prices, it's about ensuring supply at some price. I misspoke.
Sure, there is a lot of hot cash floating around, pouring into commodities, but where do you think it is all coming from, hmmmmmmmm? End the Fed, and speculation will drop back to healthy levels.
And stop conflating me with libertarians. I am an anarcho-capitalist. I like libertarians, but they still believe in government.
Also, I think it's hilarious that you are telling "libertarians" that the only way they can be taken seriously is to adopt the economic views of dumbshit libs who don't know the first thing about economics. If "we" did that, "we" wouldn't be libertarians any more! "We" will stick with you libs on most social issues (not guns, obviously). You want to smoke up? Fine by me. You want to steal a portion of my paycheck? Fuck you. You want to tell me what and how to buy the things I want? Fuck you. You want to have equal rights for gays? Excellent, I'll be right there with you.
One last tidbit--your "reality" sucks, and I don't know if you have noticed, but it's falling down around your heads. What was that famous definition of insanity again?
Are you honestly saying you don't think specs have any place in the market?...
No. That's not what I said. You have a very convenient way of arguing absurd points that were never made in an effort to distract from the ridiculousness of your own post.
Speculation by end-users who actually take delivery in the commodity markets is essential. Paper speculators by Wall Street vampires in food and oil is ridiculous. Leave the essentials of everyday life out of the casino. In short, don't allow Wall Street to gamble on hunger.
Also, i never said that we should adopt economic views that coincide with liberals. Again, you're misrepresenting my argument. I was merely responding to your utterly ridiculous assertion that speculation "evens out" markets. That was your claim, and it was so amazingly preposterous that you had to issue a retraction and claim that you misspoke. Personally, I don't think you misspoke; I think this is yet another Cliff Clavin-esque example of you talking about something you know nothing about.*
I merely think many of the libertarian (and anarcho-capitalist) ideologies that are frequently spouted by forum members such as yourself are rooted in archaic, unrealistic perceptions of how markets, economies and societies work. Your argument on Sunday that the United States should use Somalian gangs as a model for society is obvious evidence of that.
--
*Just for clarification, it is ok to end a sentence with a preposition; it's called an adverbial particle.
Speculators exist because, if you're better than most, speculation is a way of making money. I don't think many see it as charity work or a social service.
edit: Actually, you don't even need to be better than most. You just need to be thinking one day further ahead than corporate buyers.
Oil is now a currency. Soon people will be burning US Dollars to cook food like the Germans of the Wiemar Republic.
And its going higher, too.
Once it clears 106.70, its headed through 108 and up to 110.
Hah! How are them April 105 calls doin' Turd?!?! :)))
Not so well. Expired worthless. But my May 110s are working out OK.
"Expired worthless"
Why am I not surprised?
Because you have to think to be able to experience surprise.
Easy fix. As the price goes up, just change every gas pump from gallons to litres. Americans will be so happy: "Wow, 3.79 liters for only $5!"
They did that in the 70's. The gas pumps of that era would not let you buy more than $9.99 worth of gasoline. Converting to liters was a quick fix until meters count be fixed to allow purchases of up to $99.99.
No. Most Amercans will be scratching their heads saying "How many gallons is a liter?"
The US is at war with Bin Laden and the crew. Are you suggesting that we are no longer fighting for freedom and our way of life? You mean, we've been lied too? What about the 50k plus US dead that fought for freedom?
Sarc now off
Yeah, the freedom our military is dying for isn't ours; its for natural resources of course.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h__zgVz9fN4
This song kicks The Bernank's ass.
We have an "Oil Glut" and Brent is almost $120/barrel.
"Oil supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, where New York-traded West Texas Intermediate grade is delivered, increased by 1.69 million barrels, or 4.2 percent, to 41.9 million, according to the Energy Department. That’s the highest in records since 2004"
Total crude inventories climbed 2.95 million barrels in the week ended March 25 to 355.7 million as imports continued to rise, the Energy Department said. It was the fourth weekly increase in supplies and almost double a median gain of 1.5 million barrels forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-31/oil-heads-for-third-quarterly-g...
Facts aside CM - (Great Post) - Obama is all about speculators - Previous ZH post indicated that there were 391MM spec long barrels of oil as of 2 weeks ago in comparison with 100MM when oil was @ 145/barrel - No better way to ramp inflation than to crank oil prices (as you know) - I am of the conviction that have been posted by several ZHers that the Fed will ramp the markets - withdraw some support - let the crash & then enter with QEIII & let the TBTF grow exponentially again - Paging the Karma Police, please proceed to K Street Washington DC & invoke article 1 section 8 immeidately
An over-supply of oil in US refineries does not necessarily mean the rest of world demand is not increasing. We are most likely experiencing demand destruction in the US and demand creation in the rest of the world.
This is a great tool to help understand oil exports: http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/
TPOG
Damn straight. Just because we don't want to burn it does not mean that a billion Chinese (Flush with dollars they want to unload) don't want to burn it.
If oil rises to $200/bbl, then crashes below $80/bbl could this be a tactic for rewarding speculators (= recapitalizing the TBTF banks)?
So what is the next step when K-Daf gets near Benghazi We are screwed either way. There is no sense in all this, unless we are trying to help establish the Caliphate that Al Queda desires
Marines hit the Libyan beach wearing shoes so no boots will be on the ground......
Classic +10
I approve this message - Barrack Hussein Obama
David Rodham Gergin said that lsat night on Spitzer
Wholesale gasoline up another 4.36 cents to $3.10
Methinks the $3.00 level was important resistance. Gone...?
That's the price that hits the pumps every morning (plus markups).
Add what .50 .60 to get pump prices give or take? Taxes and gouging may vary.
$4 by memorial day at least!
We are long past $4 out here in California. Filled up at a cool $4.09 yesterday.
Well, well, well, looks like parity for a gallon of gas and an oz. of silver soon.
Staycation summer 2011 Bitchez!
Oil will meander in this territory till war is n full swing (3 months at most). Then it'll be off to the races in a week. 140-160..... till it becomes rationed (cannot starve the military for oil can you?)....
pretty soon, public will be on public transport and cars as we know them...on their way to histroy. Say hello to your .gov sponsored volt, powered by an in-efficient mega-winnd farm and mileage rationing through tolls tolls everywhere. It's what the camera's are really for. Go to OZ, they track you everywhere you drive with cameras.
Oild way of life is soon to be the stuff of future history books, if they ever get to be written.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/03/31/on-cue-goombye-truth-hello-sweet-lie/
We'll all be riding these.......
http://www.vintageprojects.com/mini-bike/Mite%20Cycle%20by%20Mechanix%20...
Don't forget the new world currency.
Yep LOP, they'll be called CMCs (Carbon Mutant Credits).
ORI
Commodities, the new currency. Gotta love it.
Ben is driving a truckload of tnt down a mountain road with bad brakes....kaboooom
This GUYS was so right.....
http://www.goldscents.blogspot.com/
Tyler ..u should remove Graham Summers and Add him instead
Have we set up for BIG FALL?????
Watching the equity markets close today is like watching an exhausted long-distance runner stumble across the finish line.
I am an American. I am NO Fan of Gaddafi. But our disingenuous President and Secretary of State insulting our intelligence telling us we are liberating rebels from a dictator when everyone over the age of 6 knows we want the oil kind of made me glad that it back fired.
Now the rebels have lost a key oil city and are losing ground and Obama and Hillary look like asses and that makes me happy. Does that make me a bad person?
No it makes you Archimedes and you can sink and rise like a man on eureka. Its a unique quality that your elected leaders do not understand. When they sink they keep going down the toilet...its called gravity without eureka!
"Look like"?
Not at all. Just wait till the Marines are back on the shores of Tripoli......
Are they really insulting the average American's intelligence? I look around and see a brain dead hoard. Barry takes an openly unconstitutional action and there is some talk, but really no one cares. There is nothing the average American won't put up with so long as they can gorge themselves on junk food and entertainment.
Since they have taken this action and gotten away with it, how much further will they now push? Clearly the mass man doesn't notice yet.
Congress cares not. They are all in on this whole New World Order thing, except a few like the Pauls.
TPOG
Politicians cannot say the war is about oil. Because of a moral dilemma? No. If the war is about oil, when they unfurl the "Mission Accomplished" banner, everyone will say "Great. Where is my cheap oil?"
CIA loading up Al Qaeda/Rebels above and below the table.
Oil for weapons via Bank of America.
WinWinWin
"In other words, the Fed is once again back in the box where it needs to create a massive market crash to put energy prices back in their "deflationary" place." Exactly. Well said. Yours, Maverick
BLACK GOLD BITCHEZ!
That's what I tell my women round about midnite!
Don't you worry! We have been assured that the storage for WTI is nearly full, and it is only a matter of weeks before oil falls back to $90/barrel.
Guys, for God's sake LOOK!
Oil has been north of $90/barrel in 3 of the last 4 yrs. It has been north of $100/barrel in 2 of those 4.
This has never happened before. This is real. Oil production can't grow. That's it. It's over. It has nothing to do with speculators.
"Supply" is not what is in some decades obsolute tanks in Cushing representing only a few days of consumption. "Supply" is the rate it comes out of the ground and it is not ANYTHING else. It's not what's in a tank above ground or underground. It's the flow rate in the pipes, and that number can't hold up.
This movie doesn't have a happy ending. A lot of people are going to die and none of them (including most of the people reading this) will care what call or put option did what.
and the worst part is how poorly this country prepared for it
Oil is going up for one reason alone.... Prechters Elliott Wave clown show said it had topped (Wave 5) and said it would fall
Rob Prechter is the markets greatest contrarian thinker, he's always thought he could out-think it. Only problem is when he does, he trips over his shoe laces, expels "Oh Shit!" and falls flat on his dumb arsed face (everytime)
So too does Prechters Elliott Wave clown side-kick, Steven Hochberg, the greatest calamity in investment predictions in human history. This delusional joke has called more tops on the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq in the past 12 months than McDonalds has served Big Macs in Canada. He planted a '5' on the Feb 18th top then scrubbed it out this week like he never called it.
Horrendous Hochberg has also called tops on Gold, Silver and for a Dollar rally, as has his EW colleagues for going on 10 months. This is the worst record in investment history, it is impossible to call it so wrong so many times and not beat the 50/50 chance of a coin toss. The Elliot Wave team aren't right 50% of the time, they're not even right 5% of the time.
Eliott Wave is not a joke, it's a tragedy.
And when you thought this tragedy couldn't become any more farcical out comes King Clown, Robert Prechter, who'd given up calling tops in Gold and Silver because he's been so utterly crap for over a year (if not an entire decade)
A 'special message' on 24 March to EW's long suffering ever-poorer subscribers, Prechter called a top once again in Gold and Silver telling them to short both PM's. Anyone dumb enough to follow the King of Clowns would have got precisely nowhere shorting the past week and sure as eggs, Gold and Silver are about to pass (piss on) his stops... 'ping'
Team Idiots at Team Elliott and they'll remain that way too. Their 'Free Updates' have EW Clubbers ratings, 1 to 5 stars. If Clubbers rate the Free Update below average (3) the ratings disappear. Rate an article 2 (crap) or 1 (shite) and the EW Team snuffs out your view of it. These delusional arrogant clowns only want to bask in 4's and 5's which is what you need to keep talking shit week in week out
Prechter, Hochberg and Elliott Wave are as delusional as the politicians they constantly criticise for their incompetence. Hypocracy writ large by the biggest clowns in investment
I take it that you don't think much of the Elliott wave theory then.
+1 for your comment anyway.
Speedy - you'd think consistent and persistent failure would be enough for Prechter to say "enoughs enough, our waves don't even work 5% of the time, we are shite, let's pack up refund our subscribers and go home".
But no. Way too easy, way to realistic and way too sane. Instead the delusional retards at Elliott Wave keep banging out their predictions with a 95% failure rate mis-directing their subscribers at every market turn and without apology throwing their last wave charts in the bin to work on their next piece of steaming shit!
All Prechter needs is a half decent mathematician or scientist in to statistically analyse their predictive ability. He will tell Prechter and his loony Elliott Team in no uncertain terms their waves don't work and have close to zero predictive ability.
Elliot Waves are mathematical failures, statistically incompetent and Prechter is numerically insane to keep flogging this tragedy of a theory
It's up even higher tonight!
And corn was limit up today, and its up almost by its expanded limit tonight also. All the grains are much higher.
Got food? You're going to need it!