This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Crude Now Higher Than At Goldman Downgrade

Tyler Durden's picture





 

All those who listened to Goldman and sold their oil exposure (to Goldman) may not be delighted to know that WTI is now trading at a higher price than where Goldman advised all their oh so precious clients to dump the black gold. As a reminder on April 12 Goldman released one of three bearish reports on oil expecting brent to drop to $105. In the meantime, cause a sell off in the energy complex. Seven trading days later, those who shorted on Goldman's advice, are now underwater. In the meantime we look forward to Goldman reporting another flawless trading quarter in their Q2 10Q some time in July. Of course by then Goldman's "transitory" deflation bias will be long over.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:21 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Goldman's accuracy in forecasting or making calls of any type has been remarkably crude for some time.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

They wanted it to drop so they could stock up on OTM contracts on the cheap.  They value their prop trading over clients expectations.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:42 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I heard they have a long standing tradition of using an Abacus when counting profits from contra-client trades.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Forgiven
Forgiven's picture

Abacus - Correct.  The slide rule was far too complicated for them.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:48 | Link to Comment What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Not true, it was 113+ when they downgraded it.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:21 | Link to Comment MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

OF COURSE the vampire squid Goldman Sachs wants to abuse their clients to profit on their own company books. In a word, DUH!!!

Why anyone would trust Goldman Sachs when they have repeatedly abused their own clients is beyond me.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:21 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Doing Gods work.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

If your god is Cthulhu.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:44 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Right.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:50 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

my god is cthulhu

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:50 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

Ftagnin.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:21 | Link to Comment dough eating squid
dough eating squid's picture

OT: Happy 4/20 btw

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

The great Goldman downgrades. They are always so accurate!

 

http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

I jumped in UCO a few days back after the consolidation.  Going nicely now.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:27 | Link to Comment Blooter
Blooter's picture

How do these people still have clients.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:41 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

"If the Squid you heed,

 your wallet will bleed"

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:25 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

They don't.  They're a proxy house for US gov't economic data manipulation.  They wanted to try to convince the masses that there is no inflation by pulling comods back, meanwhile they bought with both feet the modest dip they created.

White-collar crime continues.  Bonuses in the name of fraud.  Nice life.

 

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:25 | Link to Comment Bubbles the cat (not verified)
Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:29 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

I think you should give Goldman Sucks a month at least Tyler....fair play and all.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:28 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

lol @ silver drop

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:32 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Margin hike rumor spread. Now people realizing it was bogus (for now).

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:38 | Link to Comment The Axe
The Axe's picture

anything that drops like that..shows the chart is extended..and a real lack of bids..just like every other thing in this market...downdrafts can happen fast and ugly.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:37 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

We're well due for a consolidation anyway, the latest run has been a rocketship.

I'm taking a breather on AGQ for a bit.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:02 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Thx. If rumour causes a BTFD situation, safe to assume what happens when rumour becomes truth...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:35 | Link to Comment Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

It's the masochism tango. The client truly enjoys being abused. What else might explain the repeatidity?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:40 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Yeah... crude will get hammered on the roll... my ass. The roll has been basically flat for 9 months now..

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

At least we got to fill up our car a bit cheaper last weekend...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

If you think silver is expensive, it costs 3 ounces to fill up my car for 1 week

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:43 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Reminds me of a story from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. This guy gave a friend a hot tip on a stock, right from the feed bag. Unfortunately the stock bombed. So he gave his friend a wide berth until one day he caught up with him before he could disappear. The friend gives him a very large "Hello!" and "thanks for the tip".

The tipper said "But didn't that stock go down after I told you to buy it?"

The tippee says "And I sold it short. I always make money coppering your tips. Always!"

The tipper goes "If I had your brains I would be a millionaire."

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:50 | Link to Comment ShaneAshton
ShaneAshton's picture

A corporation trying to make money on the backs of their clients?????

Now that's crude (pun intended)

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:53 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

And so we see

Speculators . . . are the only thing holding it down.

It's going to get much, much worse.  There is an enormous amount of lying going on.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 13:52 | Link to Comment alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

once again. Goldman gives it to their "customers/clients" right in the ass. Ain't the free market grand?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:02 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Not to worry.  As soon as the President's re-election campaign managers assimilate this new surge and understand it thoroughly, it will become clear that more civilians are being murdered in Libya and direct intervention will be deemed compassionately necessary.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:03 | Link to Comment gkm
gkm's picture

As usual it was just a shout through the Chinese wall for their traders to do the opposite.  Say 'super spike' three times fast and click your heels.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Follow Goldman at your own Peril. If you sold at the advice of Goldman you deserve to lose!

 

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:17 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Goldman has no control over geology.

In the end, geology wins.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:46 | Link to Comment Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:45 | Link to Comment Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

And is Goldman's stock price lower than a week ago.... yes

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:54 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

They (TPTB) have been trying to hold down everything....but they can't. Today, the goal is to keep gold below 1500 and silver below 45 to end the day. They may succeed. But doing so has kept them from driving the price of oil down. Hey, there is only so much tax payer future money to work with.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 14:55 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

.....and I smell desperation.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

CNBC cheeleaders were talking about the "strength" of the markets this morning as the cotton candy spinning was +190 on the DOW.

I sat and waited for the tickers at the top of the screen to finally show me what Oil, Gold, and Silver were doing; all three were up as much as the markets and I laughed and turned off the T.V.

Will the insanity never end?

And...the dollars that anyone is going to get out of the S&P or DOW will be worth how much less than when they were put in? 

And..those dollars will be taxed at what higher rate(s)? (that is...if you can get them out of the markets when you need/want them).

The Wall Street Wonka Factory - Fudge, Taffy, and Cotton Candy!

Cue Jamie Dimon as Willy Wonka and Ben and Timmy and the gang as Umpa-Loompa's.

 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:04 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Exactly, guess who gets to pay for all this propping up of the markets and shorting of certain commodities........you got it, all of us.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:05 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I have to confess >> as someone who took GSs recommendation, I am currently underwater in my oil portfolio.  Stupid me.  Should have listened to the Morgue.  It almost seems like a pissing contest between GS and JPM on oil at this point.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:08 | Link to Comment The Count
The Count's picture

Conclusion: You can't polish a turd nor can you expect any advice from GS that does not only benefit themseleves.

 

PS: Blankfein, I will see you in hell.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:13 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Just a question.......does anybody here think that the TPTB will ever admit that there is a peak and decline of oil production? IMO no, they won't. Why? Because of the havic that it would cause in the markets and society in general. So, how do you keep things going? ....think extend and pretend, using somebody else's money. Has anybody here seen the patterns of this game over the last two years? Not enough energy to continue exponential growth to service debt etc. But, we can't address the real problems because if we do then we get chaos.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

They didn't call it that but peak oil or declining oil supplies was one of the big causes of the 1970s. When Alaskan and North Sea oil came on stream in 1980 it faded away and the good times, and SUVs rolled again, for a while.

It is unbelievable how short sighted people can be and how short the collective memory is.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:30 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Some theorize that this is why we are buying from the Middle East versus drilling our own oil.

That way, when the SHTF and there is World War over remaining Oil we will have enough to fight with and grow food.

Of course, why then are we letting anyone (China, Brazil, etc.) drill within 200 miles of our coast or even the Gulf of Mexico?

Sellouts - I think the powers that be (TPTB) are sellouts and have no allegiance to anyone and will buy their way into paradise or be dead and not care.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:11 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

If that is the case then they have really orchestrated a really nice decline curve that lines up really nice with Hubbert's curve. Any increase lately has come from un-conventional sources which are much more expensive.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:47 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Production doesn't have to decline to crush everything.  It need only grow slower than consumption / demand.

And it is.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:10 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Right now we are on a plateau...but only because they are now including unconvention oil production with conventional production.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:23 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

....sorry, should have been 'havoc'.....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:24 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

i shorted on day 1 took nice quick profits, then went right back into oil 6 trade days ago! thank you Goldman! 

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:28 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Diogenes....you are partially correct there. It was U.S. oil production that peaked in the 70's. Then we proceeded to step on our own crank by supporting Israel during a conflict there and where ME country sentiments are concerned that was not nice and so they embargoed (sp?) us. Then they lifted the embargo and the rest is as you say. However, we are at/beyond world conventional crude peak production now and nobody wants to 'fess up'.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

So do you remember Jimmy Carter in his cardigan asking everyone to turn their thermostats down? All the magazine articles and news reports predicting oil was going over $100 a barrel? Which it did but only after peaking at $35 then declining to $11 before finally reaching $100 thirty years later.

In the 70s all the pundits knew the US was out of oil and eventually the world would run out too. Too bad we didn't take the lesson to heart when we had the chance.

Carter's energy policy. We used to think he was dumb but he sure has smartened up over the years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwzyvkc1tb4&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUNKVvd19C4

The cardigan speech

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MmlcLNA8Zhc

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:15 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

Agreed. That is also one reason why he was subsequently crucified before/during the elections. I believe he did that against the advice of TPTB. It is also a big reason why subsequent leaders will not even approach the subject in any real way.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:48 | Link to Comment saifstolemythesis
saifstolemythesis's picture

Fed will raise interest rates sooner or later. Oil will drop like a rock. Goldman will be right, their timing just wrong.  

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:57 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

There timing was exactly right, there was a huge number of front month contracts that had to be rolled within a week, the smaller amount of the short term drop is where they miscalculated (or intentionally mis-stated to better the pickings).

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:50 | Link to Comment saifstolemythesis
saifstolemythesis's picture

Fed will raise interest rates sooner or later. Oil will drop like a rock. Goldman will be right, their timing just wrong.  

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 15:57 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

The whole POINT is that Goldman's timing was PURPOSELY WRONG to screw around the markets. Of course oil will go down and interest rates will go up.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:26 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

....and that is what you call demand destruction. Highs will still be higher and lows will be higher and that will remain the trend. So, where it dropped to 35 or so in 2009 it will only drop to perhaps 55 or so, but the destruction it takes to accomplish this drop will be just as bad or worse than 2008/09.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:23 | Link to Comment saifstolemythesis
saifstolemythesis's picture

Vast.com,

  When you say "purposely wrong", what proof do you have?  I'd say GS was looking at lower GDP forecast, a "controlled chaos" in the Mideast, and oversupply and insufficient oil storage in the US.  They were wrong and I bet they lost a lot of money.  Why would they "purposely" lose money?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:28 | Link to Comment r101958
r101958's picture

'oversupply' bwahahahahhahaha. Sorry.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Tracerfan
Tracerfan's picture

Anyone listening to Goldman Crapz's investment advice ought to also load up Goldman's subprime debt offerings.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 16:54 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

http://www.economagic.com/chartg/var/west-texas-crude-long.gif

Looking at the 10 year chart, to me ~120 for WTI would be the normal price to account for dollar depreciation.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

nope.... not even close, only if you measure the dollar against gold....

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 17:47 | Link to Comment tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

where oh where are the deflationist fucktards??

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I guess they were supposed to have thier new bank branch in libya set up by now.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!