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Crude Passes $91, As $100 Billion In US GDP Is Wiped Out In Minutes
A few days ago, when oil was pushing on $89 we said that we expect oil to pass $100 in a few weeks, now that chasing returns in stocks is beyond ludicrous, and speculators are branching out to those commodities which have not yet been cornered by the JP Morgue, although we are confident the Masters brain trust is plotting and scheming how to create a synthetic security that allows crude to hit $150 as RBOB goes negative. As of a few minutes ago, WTI has just passed $91, which for those who have taken math means that $100 oil is less than $9 away. And as a reminder, every $1 rise in oil reduces US GDP by $100 billion, just as every cent increase in gas prices lowers disposable income by $600 million. Who would have thought that trillions in binary dollars just sitting there, unused, unwanted, doing nothing but taking up EEPROM space could possibly have an inflationary impact...
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scintilla, bitchez
http://investmentwatchblog.com/albert-edwards-on-the-market-i-do-not-really-have-one-scintilla-of-doubt-that-this-will-all-end-in-tears-again/
Stealing top spot to point out that Peak Oil is a farce to get you to rationalize this manipulation of the oil market!
It's all good. Our regulators, like their esteemed and noble counterparts at the SEC, would surely never let terminal data be manipulated, nor oil contracts to be purchased and continually rolled - in perpetuity - w/out physical delivery ever taking place, nor would they allow oil to be stored in supertankers offshore, forever.
Our commodity markets allow a very good supply-demand balanced pricing equilibrium to take place.
We're all good here. Nothing to see. No manipulation. Ever.
Hug a banker, a commodity trader and a (non)regulator - you're life is only about 500% more expensive than it would be in a true free market system, devoid of gamed markets and manipulation.
In the 1970s the high oil price was initially the result of FED policey which transferred these new dollars into a economy with still strong unions - these workers then spent their income by converting dollars into gasoline fumes.
Since the 80s this vector has been bypassed and the new credit has gone straight into the markets bypassing the worker.
Therefore in both systems the BTUs get consumed although in the latter case it is the people with surplus capital rather then labour.
However in both systems the oil is depleted - its just a case of who gets to run down the capital.
Without technologies and redirection of money to capital creation and not consumption this process will continue.
Totally. After all, peak oil production was "calculated" accurately by a SHELL geophysicist in 1956 for the US, and the same guy, called it again for the planet's peak, all the way back in 1974. Those wiley Dutch and their west Texas lackeys always play the long game.
Nice one Thorny...
Are you suggesting that Big Oil is dishonest and is waging a public relations campaign conditioning populations that oil is getting scarcer? That Big Oil is manipulating an abundant supply as well as actively restricting refining capacity. And not only that, governments are conspiring with them… Well, we’d be in a lot of trouble if that were the case.
I trust Big Oil and the government to tell us the truth regarding the reserves of oil, regardless of their best interest.
yeah... me, too. what he said.
And when "peak oil" destroys the economy, who you gonna blame? G-d??
No, annoying bicycle riders
People who run bare-foot don't need bicycles- or shoes.
"Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves."
--- Andrew Jackson
Old Hickory was quite the badass...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50_iRIcxsz0
i just realized Berlin is in my last name. weird, i never noticed that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEOem7U2LPE
Love the "Squirrel Guns" pic!
That's a remarkably prescient quote.
Love it.
It is rifles and hanging time for those crooks.
Thank god we are recovering. This is the symptom of recovery right?
Yep, and once crude is at 300$ A COFFEE CUP instead of a barrel , that will mean everything is A OKE!!
Did anyone noticed about Ukraine default? Its gonna Russia ,Germany or the IMF help again Ukraine?...
¡and second question...
2.How and who gonna be the IMF´s and ECB´s Bailoutter? Mars? Aliens? Pandora? Moctezuma? The Inflation Papa?
Please dont guess, China, HongKong Fui...
Gas War coming and Bulkers&Tankers too...
Have everyone a nice X,mas season.
This market is broken, and is the biggest farce ever done in the world.
RON PAUL For president now¡
The reason actually is because Russia made a new gas pipeline directly to Germany. The Ukraine will never transfer Russian gas no more.
So that and the fact that they don't have a industry will turn it into a grassland in a few years. I bet that in a decade, they'll be begging to join Russia again.
Grain matters.
Ukraine leases arable lands to South Korea and Middle East countries. They produce less and less themselves.
My airplane was built in the Ukraine
Excuse me if I'm wrong but I believe Ukraine's the world's top producer of barley and also a larger producer of wheat, which means we need them for beer (not sure if they can up production or prices enough to make up for shortfall in significant way). Also, I don't think the pipeline has been built yet. They only just received the funding. Your right though when it does happen UKrained is in trouble so maybe they could take steps now against russia before its too late. They still have leverage.
Ukraine is also the top exporter of prostitutes to Macau.
Dévushka po výzovu, Sukazzz!!!!
Is there a list? Like did someone compile a prostitute country of origin list for Macau? With the things that govs spend money on it would not totally surprise me if they did...
Damn... my money was on Belarus.
Practically at $300 a cup at Starbucks already isnt it?
the venti with soy
Looks like a dip has revealed itself in the S&P. Should I buy the fahkin dip?
It's fucking dip.
lol!
That is one small thing that drew me into ZH, freedom of speech.
Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck...ah that feels sooooo good. :-)
You're god damned, fucking right.
all those hard consonants, like pounding something
One of these days that curve is going to resemble an L .
...only if you pound it wrong.
This should help retail sales and small business hiring. They no inflation here.
People wont notice the fifty dolla fillups during all the holiday travels. They'll happily pay it cause they have steady jobs on their way to buy china made sweaters and tvs at the mall.
I've been watching it very closely. In fact, it has netted me £20,000 today (in my play spread betting account). Yesterday Alex Jones had that Lindsey Williams guy on (the pastor whos'e claim to fame was saying there was more oil under some island in Alaska than there is under the Saudi sands). He called for $200/bbl oil by the end of 2011. He also said that the Eurozone would completely collapse in 2011. In addition, within three weeks of the Eurozone collapse, the US would follow suit.
it is funny that peak oil is their most guarded secret, when finite resources are so simple that kindergartebers can get it. the rich will give away info only if to keep the peak oil myth. jim tucker and williams ONLY say what they are told. think about that.
And if there is a "super reserve" in Alaska that sonar tech has failed to map for the last 40 years, it could mitgate peak oil production for a minute...literally.
You say that, and while I believe it as well, I must say, the story has been told too many times and mispredicted too many times.
A couple years ago when the rug was pulled out underneath the $150/bbl point, I told my father it was temporary and would give us all a false sense of security, leading to a much larger spike when the economy made some return to normalcy. I told him that, whether based on geological or political reasons, peak oil would be upon us soon enough. He told me, "No, I have been hearing that since the early 70s. First it would happen in the 80s, then the 90s, and now I'm supposed to believe it will happen in the 00s. Yet all the while production increases by technological means alone."
Some of the old timers have been jaded by false predictions and cannot overcome the failed predictions of passed days, regardless of the clear geological and political facts present. In short, "peak oil" will never be accepted until the government comes out and says "we're implementing rationing to deal with PO". Of course, as you and I know, it will be too late then.
The correct term, ladies and gentlemen, is extraction.
<returns pipe to corner of mouth, raises eyebrow and reclines into club chair.>
And an increase in extraction due to technological advances will do what to the production peak in the end run? An increase in extraction qickens the production collapse.
One should not confuse specific production peaks like the American production peak of '71 and the Russian production peak of '89 and peak world production. the final differnce is in the addition of the specifics.
Im not a geologist and I dont work in the oil industry- even if I would be both, I still wouldnt know all the facts about world reserves (because the world is too fucking big)...
Although I dont know how many trilions of barels are there to extract I know the moast important part of the puzzle- wether it will be because the oil runs out or not, the real Peak Oil crisis will start when someone at the very top says: "dont give the flock any more gasoline- let them eat cake"...
It WILL be the end of this world of shit and the beginning of hell on earth.
As economics is buried, peak oil raises its dubious head. This death cross which was perped on one side from the likes of Greenspan, Rubin, Summers, and Bernanke, is also fashioned on the annals of 'Mercan ignorance. Thelma and Louise play the part, as American drives off the very real cliff of finite resources, and into the abyss of financial debt collapse.
permanently high oil...get used to it.
How long before idiots start blaming "Exxon" and the other "big oil companies" who they believe have the power to unilaterally set prices?
yours is the best mug.
Luckely they show movie trailers on the pumps now when I have to go fill up my car so I don't have to watch the counter...
HOW I LIKE ADVERTISING!!
i only have to fill up my gas tank once every 4 to 6 weeks. but have an old school gas station/volvo repair shop. jump out of my car hand them 30 bucks cash. real old pumps and only two of them. mikey k, if you want to go there, it is at the corner of Folsom and Pine.
hmm... about 7000 miles from my house.... I think I'll pay a little extra for the service over here :)
Calafornians are sorry enough they can only afford a guard for the oil cash to pay someone to pump.
I can't see how they hire anyone for those stations. Work longer than a week and you're sure to be robbed.
Min. Wage late nights, shit on that!
"No more law of the jungle." I smell the new world oder somewhere.
Contangoooooo, i drink your milkshake, i DRINK IT UP!
Yes. Why blame Exxon or the bankers? Everyone knows that the oil market is a completely free, well regulated market. The WTO makes sure of that, right? /sarcasm
OK, so now that we all just got a perfect primer on how to engineer a rally, let us contemplate who is behind the spike in crude futures, shall we? Who has the best commodity trading desk? Who do oil future flippers fear the most when in comes to trading ownership of black gold.....
Why, I do believe that is Goldman Sachs. Indeed, the squid, the freaks lining their pockets with millions while creating nothing, and telling Mary Shapiro which SEC laws she should enforce and which she should ignore...and so on and so on.
REAL CAPITAL [ie NOT BERNANKE BANANAS] CANNOT FORM IN BANKS AS OBVIOUSLY CORRUPT AS THESE. IT SIMPLY CANNOT HAPPEN...which is to say kiss your economy goodbye as the squid builds something new and wonderful for you, and the Blow Horn [CNBC] joyfully announces its arrival through endless stories about SHOPPING!
From your loving friends at Goldman Sachs, $3.50 per gallon at the pump while you travel to grandmother's house....Merry Christmas to all.
Good grief [which is to say for fucks sake!]
Wasn't it the Sachs who bought up loads of storage in Cushing? Or was that JP Morgue? I don't know, but it's probably time for the fruits of their labor to yield.
While I, like many others, would rejoice in the collapse of GS, sometimes positions are taken that are based on NOT losing money. With big entities such positions, by their sheer size, are almost by default, guarantee profiting: and, of course, that's what they are in the business for.
I still have to wonder how we can be so worried that folks are able to acquire greater amounts of increasingly more worthless fiat dollars?
This price increase is the direct result of money printing. It's a sign of inflation leakage. I'm sure that speculation will drive things up again, though this can only be temporary, as the smackdown will happen as demand plunges.
The Fed and GS, keeping the (massively unsustainable) "American Dream" alive!
May I suggest we be ready to see $100 crude within days/week.
There is a stiff wind of demand driving the price this time. Did some one corroborate that Japan is buying, buying. Production steady over the past few months. Heating oil demand going through the roof. Even derivatives can drive the price up, especially in freak times such as these.
Oil, the milk of human un-kindness and we are addicted. India is driving, more every day, in highly fuel in-efficient vehicles as the price per liter rises, in the last decade like a hockey stick.
Totally in-elastic demand. Up, up and away. Salaries surging, spending surging, oil/energy consumption surging, oil surging.
Potent mix.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/13/machine-strong-human-weak/
If you think there is a fundamental case for oil at $100 now, then you must have lost your ass when GS took oil to $150 saying it was due to supply and demand.
That is utter nonsense. There is freakin' oil everywhere and you can only build a fundamental case for the price here if all of your memories begin 7 months ago...which is pretty close to being born last night.
But back to more stories about SHOPPING! Way to go at The Blow Horn [CNBC]...SHOPPING stories for two straight months while Europe implodes and Ben Bernanke goes gansta on litte Miss Euro. Sweet! Bust a move, Ben!
Cdad, I also think nations are stock-piling for a potential systemic shock? A supply disruptor?
All my sensors are tingling, if you know what I mean. There has not been this much jaw-boning about the potential for conflict (Iran now, primarily, but basically all the enemies of Israel, which is pretty much the whole world) in recent history.
We've been numbed to the fact that war is around the corner. See the top ten games on PS3, XBox.
I see national stockpiling as a major, hidden reason for the recent and now upcoming spike in Crude. Speculation layer is and will float above.
And shopping, suddenly all India is Christian ( in the worst, gift giving way). So, "gift" season is on here too.
I remember the lines in the post office int he US in the weeks leading up to Christmas. Hoooooo boy! Enough said.
Unnyways, that is how I see it.
ORI
That's cool ORI...I have no beef with anything you have said save for the fact that the criminal syndicate known as Wall Street has been sayin' all that crap and more about how sweet everything is and picking out new shiny bobbles down on Madison Ave....but...only if...Ben Bernanke keeps counterfeiting our money and giving it to them in one sweetheart deal after another....
So, I tell you what...I'll meet you half way. Yank Ben Bernanke out of his seat and toss him in jail, halt all POMO crimes, and let the market stand on REAL CAPITAL FORMATION...and then try to run that stuff by me again....ok?
Cool.....and now for more stories about SHOPPING...about RETAILERS...and all sort and manner of things designed to keep you from paying any attention at all to the man behind the curtain...and today that man is.....drum roll.............L. Blanfkein
.
Declining production. Exports declining. Non-existant investment in ifrastructure. Demand increasing. Sound's like a conspiracy to jack prices to me... [sarc.]
btw, anybody know of a source that charts average production per well over time? I think that would be very informative...
dltd
The higher this farce goes, the further it has to fall to bury itself. There's no rampant credit expansion to help the consumer absorb the illogically rising cost of commercial inputs.
On the brink..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uzef43gdupk
Now it's a farce? Not long ago you belonged to Harry Wanker's School of Disinformation
+91
Whatta load of unadulterated excrement.
Basically I have found maybe 10-20 people on ZH who hold the same position as myself. Steve from Virginia, Mako, B9K9, Chindit.
The oil trade is really the only game in town and that trade implies extreme deflation until the Bretton Woods system is restructured.
Cash is the only thing I'm accumulating these days.
Two naïve questions:
Higher oil means more $$ in the pocket of the Saudis. Do they turn around and buy tresuries? I think yes since the Bernak has a put under treasuries.
Seems like youre laying out a simple equation- Higher prices=vast new revenue to the Saudis who will then of course jump all over UST's?
Only problem is this time when oil goes over $100 and gas shoots up to $4, it cant be absorbed...hell the truckers are already saying theyre pinched to the max and are cutting routes. Store shelves will be sparse and prices will shoot up.
Oil going up doesnt equate to higher revenues in all cases, people just consume less and curtail their driving.
uh, oil producers also have to sell less cause they need more over time
Could be. But wouldn't the extra Treasury demand be likely to disappear into the black hole of the extra Treasury supply needed to s(t)imulate continued recovery in the face of $150/barrel oil? It seems like trying to pull yourself up by your own bootstraps.
EEDIT: Then again, the Saudis get to tax the whole world, not just the US, when oil goes to $150, so it might work. It might put some stress on the old decoupling thesis, though...
I think that people over-estimate how much oil the Saudis are exporting, how big of an influence their production is on the world market. Yes, they are the biggest exporter, but their exports are in the neigborhood of about 20% (if not less) of the world total. Yeah, they can have an impact, but only up to a certain point.
US oil production is close to 15% of the world's total. Not all that far off of Saudi Arabia's. So... maybe we should also be talking about Chevron and others taxing the world, or their buying of US Treasuries?
Also note that Saudi Arabia's energy supply is heavily weighted to oil (something like 63%), which means that its exports are going to be squeezed going into the future.
When talking of the Saudi's.... most of their oil goes to Asia. The province of Saskatchewan export more oil to the US than Kuwait. For the most part, the US imports its crude oil from Canada, Mexico, Nigeria and Venezuala. It does import a lot of gasoline, primarily from Europe.
The Saudis! They're to blame. Man, I wish we had some influence with those A-rabs.
There is a labyrinthian maze that is only completely known and understood by the members of the Jewish elite, who constructed it. The tie-ins between oil, the $ and other assets, futures, currencies are manipulated and exploited by a very select Chosen few.
NOTHING surprises these people because they have already placed their bets with prior knowledge of who is going to do what.
If Goldamn Sucks says oil will be at $100 by yr end you can bet that they will be selling their oil that they bought at $37.00, all the way up to $100 and beyond ----depending on the number of suckers they can convince.
The media are their complicit henchpeeple in this very lucrative endeavor. if it moves, they will make fortunes for three thousand years on it.
Yea but no ones playing their game anymore. They can pump to themselves all they like I guess, but its just a circlejerk.
your anti new york sophistication needs improvement. "they win until they lose" isn't good enough. you need a "they always win" kind of raging kind of thing to make it work...
don't you mean it's all the jews fault for making oil an exhaustable resource? :/
$100 oil will ruin the economy. All I hear about is people paying too much for gas. That cash for clunkers only had people trade in old SUVs for new ones and trucks.
The fed only way to stop it is to turn off the Pomo and bond buying. But the stock market would crash.
Oil looks like it will break $92 today. And retail gas stations are ever quick to push prices up will up all week long. Nice hole in the wallet when you Back to work Jan 2nd. Makes you want to go out and buy more shit you don't need.
Gas is aleady expensive and this is in the winter. Wait til the spring when the summer blends start coming on the market and summer driving season starts. Illinois average is currently at $3.19/g uleaded but in Chicago I saw unleaded selling for $3.65 and this was not downtown which is propably higher. $100 oil will garauntee $4.50 before the summer in Chicago.
I believe people, we, have been programmed to accept higher gas prices and every year the threshold goes higher and higher. I remember the first time gas hit $2 peoplle freaked out and when it got close to $3 during a hurrican katrina people went nuts and politicians were calling for an investigation. Illinois even temporarly stopped collecting gas tax to alleviate the pain. Now nobody is complaining about $3 or even $4 and they this is going we will eventualy catch up to Europe's $9/g prices.
People paying too much for gas, its not like a couple years ago when gas visited $4+, this time the people are actually broke and cant pay the up charges. Then throw in the truckers who go off a mathematical equation, theyre already cutting routes with diesel national avg at $3.40.
BINGO! I've been saying for years that the price isn't the issue, it's "affordability."
because oil is so fundamental to our expanding debt based economy (and day to day living), price and affordability are intertwined.
Re; Affordability.
Cha-ching.
Only a select few can afford to do business above $100/bbl.
Affordability translates to availability at a price. Without credit expansion (which is demanded into existence by consumers, not LIARS such as Ben Bernanke, whom most on this site are marching lockstep with), the (economic upper bound) price of oil will seek equilibrium at a price which is conducive to replacement costs.
This is going to end in tears...oil will probably be $10 a barrel again...the change in your couch will be long gone by that point.
But that's the thing: if it is the primary dealers who are doing this, shouldn't Bernanke be able to get them to back off from oil without having to cut off QE? Doesn't the Fed have the PDs' numbers, in more senses than one? Can't it threaten any of them with some regulatory pressure (think Magnetar), for example? Or is the thinking that someone else (or an army of someone elses) will just ramp oil if the regular suspects are prevented?
Yes but on a positive note Melissa Francis and the other CNBC whore (can't think of her name) will get to celebrate the $100 oil prediction they made yesterday. They were absolutely giddy over the possibility.
All the unemployed families of America salute your prediction with a big fat 'fuck you' Melissa Francis and fellow CNBC whores that only see the price of oil as a number and game for their trading pimps.
If end-profit is the ultimate goal, you want the price of oil at the point where consumption/reward is at it's maximum, which is way South of $90/bbl.
There's no doubt that govt. is big oil's bitch - [see the govt's response to the Gulf oil spill]
The only reasons I can think of that TPTB would want oil prices high enough to stagnate the economy is to either try and set a floor under the price of oil to stabilize it's influance on markets or to actively try and "manage" a global contraction - and the only reason either of these options makes sense if if they fear the greater evil of economic chaos induced by wildly swinging prices due to see-sawing demand as the markets react to a lack of supply growth.
I think that your assessment is right. Price stability is essential to the entire global economy: we all like/prefer stability, so there's nothing sinister with this desire/angle. The other point, one that I'm quite confident is controlling the undercurrents, is that of managing a global contraction; this is pretty much the same as price stability, as it requires controlling pricing, but it's more about the bigger picture.
When I look around at all the people out there who are totally programmed for mindless consumption* I see how unlikely it would be for them to accept the realities of diminishing resources, esp oil. "Education" wouldn't likely work, as you'd have tons of people ranting about abiotic oil and technological "cures;" facts be damned! So... rather than being honest with ourselves we have to commision the "leaders" to steer us so that we don't really see, in full force, what's coming.
*Abetted by mindless producers.
well said
The Fed/PD/CFTC etc. complex behavior is easy enough to understand. When the TBTF banks manipulate oil (or gold, silver, copper, etc) price upwards, they pull in "speculators". Then they reverse and clean them out to the downside keeping inflation in check and governmental sponsers happy.
Repeat ad nauseum....
"Two naïve questions:
The government doesn't control the thieves anymore. The thieves control the government. I think at this point Bernanke is just hoping the whole system collapses slowly enough for him to get out of town ahead of the tar and feathers.
Lloyd Blankfiend said in November that Oil would be @ 100.00 by year end.
Wonder how he knew that?
So did Lindsey Williams. He also said within a few months the entire markets will implode.
The US and global economies cannot survive oil at over $85/bbl, almost every functional (meaning nonmonetarist) economist admits this. Of course, the US and global economies wouldn't even exist in a recognizable form (not recognizable as ashes) without any oil at all. So we're lucky I guess.
For a little while. Luck is like that, you cannot count on it save for a little while.
Right, this time when gas shoots up to $4, the economy what little of it there is goes brown-out. Already I see crews I work with declining to make longer trips, keeping it more local. They wont travel over 20 miles. Throw in truckers who are already declining routes and food prices and shortages will rise fast.
Why don't people get this?
My theory about why nobody gets it is that most people in America don't actually do anything. Lots of professional dog groomers, real estate agents, big-box store greeters, all that. They have no idea how things actually work. No concept of transportation costs, bottlenecks in supply, or the origins overseas of critical goods like clothing and a lot of food.
They will be completely blind-sided when the chair is knock out from under the global economy. They have no clue how vulnerable we've become. No clue.
Just the way the Ponzi masters want it. As long as the people can be shielded from the reality of their governments actions (or in-actions as the case may be) the Ponzi can and will continue. It's all about perception at this point. Reality has taken a back seat and will remain there until the government can no longer keep it hidden. Then it's full speed ahead to the bridge abutment.
/cougar picks jaw up off floor/
You are right, I know it, we've always known it would end that way, and yet every time I hear it my head still explodes.
I would say it's insanity, but these people aren't actually crazy.
I would ascribe it to stupidity (as we are told to do) but they are not actually that stupid. Not by a reach.
I would blame it on greed, but I know for a fact there is money to be made in not blowing our shit up.
Is it bad timing? Is it ignorance? Was it a stretch of bad luck?
I know what you will say; it's all of those in concert. No one person is all of those ailments, no one person is insane and stupid and blind with greed. But the entire superstructure is filled top to bottom with people suffering from one or more of a list of mental illness, ignorant fallacy or cognitive deficit.
There are few with all their oars in the water. Good and smart people are doing something else because public service attracts bottom-feeding criminals and social losers and corporate service attracts sociopaths and their sycophants. There is nothing in the midde. There are no functioning adults at the helm.
Bridge abutment bound, we are. It's so sad it makes my head hurt.
It is all a self induced illusion and we are all under the hypnotic spell of the modern day witches and warlocks. If you stop and ponder this concept with an open mind, you begin to understand that all the Feds so-called economic theory and actions can be boiled down to reality distortion techniques that use reams of numbers and technical data to justify, rationalize and solidify the forming of the illusion in our minds.
Look for my up coming article on this subject.
I am technically a witch. We don't act like that, just so you know. Illusion is our enemy too. We celebrate darkness only as a reflection of the light, which we also celebrate. This business of being all shadow and no substance is something the witches have fought for a long time.
To really understand my fiction you should read it with the knowledge that Fortran is a modern witch, and Diamond is an ancient one. It's hard to say which is the more dangerous to the modern world. Both of them find the shadows and tear them to pieces. For them tis the work of the season, as I shall reveal in shortly.
I caught that concept in your work and I could sense the old wisdom in Diamond.
I was a little disappointed others didn't react as well to your work when we published it. But then again much of the ZH crowd is populated by linear thinkers (not all and certainly less than the general pop) and not well adopted to swimming free and uninhibited in the ether. Imagination must be nurtured beginning at a young age in order to successfully bloom.
Let me know when your next chapter is ready. Personally I can't wait.
Can't wait.
I see a world fit to support about 20% of current global population. Could take 50 years or more of the majority continually liquidating the minority.
We truly have witnessed only the ceremonial 1st pitch..
These people will become cannibals..
At the beginning of this year I had to close a wholesale business I owned and operated. In September of 2008 everything stopped. No one was buying, lending, restocking, nothing. When everything restarted, it restarted with same store sales at about 50% of where they were when everything stopped. A couple of things that were paramount in my decision to close the business were that (1) same store sales never came back to September 2008 levels and (2) that everything was just a bit broken. Just a bit broken in that my suppliers had back orders they never had before, supply quality went way down, suppliers changing to "all sales are final", started receiving equipment that was "bad out of the box" ... individually, none of these problems are deal killers but they pack a punch collectively. As well, it wasn't just me. Other wholesalers who I worked along side had the same complaints.
My feeling is that if the event(s) of September 2008 caused everything to brake and remain just a bit broken (and not mend themselves as they had every time in the past) then the next set of events will be catastrophic.
This is precisely why the Fed has their foot to the floor and have pushed everything past the red line. There was and still is real structural damage done to the ship of state. But as long as the ship can be pushed to full speed, the pumps can almost maintain a balance between seepage and pumping it overboard. But the engines will not last much longer.
The hope is that they can beach the ship on dry land before it sinks. Dry land is a myth.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WaterworldI own a small retail store and things are bad. It's not just me, everyone in the center has problems. A friend of mine manages another shopping center on the other side of town and he says it's bad there too. A lot of owners have stopped paying thier leases in the last two months. I don't think this can hold up much longer, but then I didn't think it would hold up this long. I can't stand the pundits on tv saying how great 2011 is going to be.
Yeah, where are the voices asking us how we can operate, and grow!, an infrastructure built to run on $25/bbl oil can run on $80+/bbl oil? Borrowed time...
Borrowed time.
Like everything else, borrowed from our own children.
In an important way that future generations will celebrate, we suck.
Our children and grandchildren will curse us and the last generation as a benediction, prior to the long pork feast.
Excellent - more increases in the final Retail Sales numbers! Also, the price of all sorts of stuff will go up, meaning further increases in Q1 '11 forecasts. Since employment and profitability no longer matter - this is easily worth another 100 points on the ES.
Oh the insanity!
This is fargan war!
Fargan bastage, icehole, son of a vitch!
And this is all happening on relative dollar "strength"...gosh, I wonder if during this run up in oil over the next weeks / months, what will happen if we get a weakening of the dollar.
This is very sad to watch. So many losers and so few winners. Worst of all is this is exactly the plan elucidated by BB. This is not an aberation or unintended consequence.
This being the Xmas season, I am choosing to look at the brighter side of some dismal economic news.
The drop in consumption should lead to a better environment. Less strip malls and stores will lead to urban blight, but more and interesting play areas for children without parks- after the recyclers have had an opportunity to mine for opportunities. This will also provide more out of the way locations for drug dealers and the possibilities of an uptick in employment for teenagers as mules.
We'll need more cash for the increase in black markets as more people attempt to stretch their dollars, so all the money being created will have a place to go - sterilizing increased flows from the FED. This should lead to rosier projections and the illusion of improvement will be maintained statistically.
The probable riots in inner cities as food supplies fail should provide opportunities for service in the National Guard, Police and Jails, Fire, Weapons manufacturers,Hospitals and Mortuaries. These will surely become growth industries in the New Year!
Unfortunately, financial service and news sites will probably disappear- as no one will care. While the loss of ZH will be mourned, the disappearance of Harry Wanker, Red Neck Republicrat and Bubba 123 will provide a welcome relief. Not as fair tradeoff, but you need to get some value from your investments.
Look for a rise in shovels and strong boxes as the need to hide confiscated gold and silver become the standard. Bikes and horses will, of course, become the new transportation of choice.
As government is whittled down from the complete lack of revenue, I look for a shrinking of the cost and unwillingness of needing to provide elections- as no one will care nor run for office. As this will negate any need for television in it's current form, people will turn to more mundane entertainments, such as: reading, writing, conversing with neighbors and shooting National Guardsmen to protect their neighborhoods.
Eventually, the people may start demanding real money for the exchange of goods which will bring the gold and silver back above ground, as paper money is recycled into fireplace logs.
Logs burnt as we sit around the fire, enjoying a glass of home brew and laugh about the old days when the Federal Reserve tried to enslave us and ended up having their heads put on a pike.
It will be a slower time, a simpler time, when the snow falls, the crops grow naturally, the preferred entertainment is your lover's touch and children can play safe from the groping hands of homeland security.
Merry Xmas all.
What drop in consumption? CNBC is touting it as the most wild consumertastic credit card maxing holiday season in about 80 years!
i agree "trucker parking is suddenly more available now than ever in American history." Merry Xmas to you, too!
well it sounds like this raising oil price is the
Black Swan event, maybe.
Velo,
Why ever would you say that? Look, if L. Blankfein says it has to be this way, then it has to be this way. And if everyone on ZH is right, Average Joe will just mosey on up to the pump, pay his $3.50 per gallon, and then drive on down to Best Buy and purchase a flat panel TV. Not sure I see the swan ;)
But L. Blankfein had a technical itch on oil, and since B. Bernanke is like all, "Hey, Loyd, here is a freshly printed trillion for ya," why should anyone be bothered by any of this? Seriously?
And I'm sorry for the heavy dose of sarcasm here, but I just saw yet another instance of that whole "rule of law" thingy just tossed out the window as S. Wapner over at the Blow Horn prattles on about leadership from SHOPPING STOCKS and how this is all a SANTA CLAUSE RALLY...and not a big middle oil finger from L. Blankfein as he sucks more of America's waning soul out of her.
Who cares? Fuck it!
NO RULE OF LAW, BITCHEz!
cdiddy,
they might have a majik monie creator, but they do not nor will not have the alchemer's stone. no no.
Technically no, because a rise in oil prices was predicted.
The black swan will be something that cuts the oil off.
Watch for it. It won't help, but you'll take some small pleasure knowing what it was that just blew you up.
Many thanks for this! NOTE: WTF is up with the junking?
I'd add that guillotine products and services should also be on the rise!
That's the entrepreneurial spirit!
You sir, will get ahead in business.
And lead and brass and powder.
As a Canadian I would just like to thank you for all the freshly printed 1's and 0's you will be sending North. And a Happy New Year to all!
According to my sources,
Venezuela will create the first oil linked basket currency with Iran ,Sudan and Lybia
This is the big battle for commodities control
According to my sources,
US Military is busy polishing bombs/missiles and adorning them with personal greetings for Venezuela, Iran, Sudan, and Libya if this occurs.
It will literally be a battle for commodities control.
First off can you "get off King Porn of death to equity" fight clubbers "for the upteenth time." can the collapse happen again? OBVIOUSLY. but "when debt markets are suspect" what happens in equity as the most important thing is pretty much "showing yourself to be a dumb ass." the size of debt markets are so big "it's pretty much unknowable." that's how valuable THAT THING is! the "common wisdom is that debt markets should be twice as big as the equity markets." some suggest "our debt markets are currently 10 times the size of our equity markets." and "conservative Europe" has been taken to the woodshed I would argue because "they don't have equity markets outside of London." Just "debt on top of debt on top of debt" etc, etc, etc...In the meantime "as it relates to oil" you're talking about the "largest source of natural gas on the planet" ACTIVELY. "oil can rise" and IN THEORY we won't be obliterated. of course "you have to be the idiot who believes debt DOES matter as a NEGATIVE." for some reason "the government in connivance with the banks tell us the OPPOSITE." Could it be "they both love higher prices"???!!! OF COURSE NOT...NO WAY...In the meantime "why are the bad guys complaining about the low PRICE of natural gas? Hmmmmm. "Santa, Santa--if we rearrange the letters could it spell *****???!!!"
Right, the central banksters have finally figured it all out and invented the perfect perpetual motion machine...they make no loans at all and the FED just keeps handing them billions free of charge.
Why the hell didnt someone think of this simple genius plan eons ago??
Yeah but 1,000,000,000,000 after lossless compression takes up as much EEPROM space as 1,000 because of the repeated zeros. So the actual number is meaningless in terms of storage when managed properly.
I come here just to get my geek on, most days.
You're stalking the wrong animal Cougar. At least for ZH. We're all free range chickens and you're looking for antelope or even wildebeest.
Of course, I hear Troll tastes real good this time of year. :>)
I ate so much troll earlier in the week I'm still sh*tting it. And it's not pretty even in the toilet.
You are right. Back to the antelopes. Or maybe even jackalope. If you can get past the cuteness they are good eats.
i've got a jackalope on my wall. great conversation piece!
I may have to get one of those for my daughter for Xmas.
I'm a bad daddy.
Mountain lion, kits spotted on R...
Mountain lion, kits spotted on Rio Grande Trail near AspenThe jogger encountered the female cat and kits below the Slaughterhouse Bridge, where Cemetery Lane drops down to the Roaring Fork River on the edge of town. The bridge also crosses over the trail, which runs along the river.
cougar this is near where i use to live. cougar canyon and wildcat. neat huh?
I'll meat you at Slaughterhouse and Cemetary Lane.
Said the cougar, with a smile.
Cougar_w......patiently waiting for lunch to be served.
simply one of the most beautiful creatures on earth.
yeah... today when I went to the store, there was this cougar walking around like a angel and when I passed the whip cream while following her so I could keep starring at her ass I really felt like doing something creative...
to bad my wife was also with me :(
I know a really hot cougar with a great ass, my Ex - Wife.
And here I thought I was the only one who followed hotties around the grocery store. Takes me forever to get a gallon of milk sometimes.
Nothing is more beautiful than my black swan. I'll feed it to you if you want.