Crude Passes $91, As $100 Billion In US GDP Is Wiped Out In Minutes

Tyler Durden's picture

A few days ago, when oil was pushing on $89 we said that we expect oil to pass $100 in a few weeks, now that chasing returns in stocks is beyond ludicrous, and speculators are branching out to those commodities which have not yet been cornered by the JP Morgue, although we are confident the Masters brain trust is plotting and scheming how to create a synthetic security that allows crude to hit $150 as RBOB goes negative. As of a few minutes ago, WTI has just passed $91, which for those who have taken math means that $100 oil is less than $9 away. And as a reminder, every $1 rise in oil reduces US GDP by $100 billion, just as every cent increase in gas prices lowers disposable income by $600 million. Who would have thought that trillions in binary dollars just sitting there, unused, unwanted, doing nothing but taking up EEPROM space could possibly have an inflationary impact...

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pan-the-ist's picture

Stealing top spot to point out that Peak Oil is a farce to get you to rationalize this manipulation of the oil market!

TruthInSunshine's picture

It's all good. Our regulators, like their esteemed and noble counterparts at the SEC, would surely never let terminal data be manipulated, nor oil contracts to be purchased and continually rolled - in perpetuity - w/out physical delivery ever taking place, nor would they allow oil to be stored in supertankers offshore, forever.

Our commodity markets allow a very good supply-demand balanced pricing equilibrium to take place.

We're all good here. Nothing to see. No manipulation. Ever.

Hug a banker, a commodity trader and a (non)regulator - you're life is only about 500% more expensive than it would be in a true free market system, devoid of gamed markets and manipulation.

THE DORK OF CORK's picture

In the 1970s the high oil price was initially the result of FED policey which transferred these new dollars into a economy with still strong unions - these workers then spent their income by converting dollars into gasoline fumes.

Since the 80s this vector has been bypassed and the new credit has gone straight into the markets bypassing the worker.

Therefore in both systems the BTUs get consumed although in the latter case it is the people with surplus capital rather then labour.

However in both systems the oil is depleted - its just a case of who gets to run down the capital.

Without technologies and redirection of money to capital creation and not consumption this process will continue.

Thorny Xi's picture

Totally.  After all, peak oil production was "calculated" accurately by a SHELL geophysicist in 1956 for the US, and the same guy, called it again for the planet's peak, all the way  back in 1974.  Those wiley Dutch and their west Texas lackeys always play the long game.

 

benb's picture

Are you suggesting that Big Oil is dishonest and is waging a public relations campaign conditioning populations that oil is getting scarcer? That Big Oil is manipulating an abundant supply as well as actively restricting refining capacity. And not only that, governments are conspiring with them… Well, we’d be in a lot of trouble if that were the case.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

I trust Big Oil and the government to tell us the truth regarding the reserves of oil, regardless of their best interest.

cosmictrainwreck's picture

yeah... me, too. what he said.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

And when "peak oil" destroys the economy, who you gonna blame?  G-d??

pan-the-ist's picture

People who run bare-foot don't need bicycles- or shoes.

jus_lite_reading's picture

"Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves."

--- Andrew Jackson

bob_dabolina's picture

Thank god we are recovering. This is the symptom of recovery right?

Sudden Debt's picture

Yep, and once crude is at 300$ A COFFEE CUP instead of a barrel , that will mean everything is A OKE!!

hugovanderbubble's picture

Did anyone noticed about Ukraine default? Its gonna Russia ,Germany or the IMF help again Ukraine?...

¡and second question...

2.How and who gonna be the IMF´s and ECB´s Bailoutter? Mars? Aliens? Pandora? Moctezuma? The Inflation Papa?

Please dont guess, China, HongKong Fui...

Gas War coming and Bulkers&Tankers too...

 

Have everyone a nice X,mas season.

 

 

This market is broken, and is the biggest farce ever done in the world.

 

RON PAUL For president now¡

Sudden Debt's picture

The reason actually is because Russia made a new gas pipeline directly to Germany. The Ukraine will never transfer Russian gas no more.

So that and the fact that they don't have a industry will turn it into a grassland in a few years. I bet that in a decade, they'll be begging to join Russia again.

AnAnonymous's picture

Ukraine leases arable lands to South Korea and Middle East countries. They produce less and less themselves.

duo's picture

My airplane was built in the Ukraine

Rick Masters's picture

Excuse me if I'm wrong but I believe Ukraine's the world's top producer of barley and also a larger producer of wheat, which means we need them for beer (not sure if they can up production or prices enough to make up for shortfall in significant way). Also, I don't think the pipeline has been built yet. They only just received the funding. Your right though when it does happen UKrained is in trouble so maybe they could take steps now against russia before its too late. They still have leverage.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Ukraine is also the top exporter of prostitutes to Macau. 

Dévushka po výzovu, Sukazzz!!!!

Shameful's picture

Is there a list?  Like did someone compile a prostitute country of origin list for Macau?  With the things that govs spend money on it would not totally surprise me if they did...

Flakmeister's picture

  Damn... my money was on Belarus.

SheepDog-One's picture

Practically at $300 a cup at Starbucks already isnt it?

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Looks like a dip has revealed itself in the S&P.  Should I buy the fahkin dip?

andybev01's picture

lol!

That is one small thing that drew me into ZH, freedom of speech.

Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck...ah that feels sooooo good. :-)

Rick Masters's picture

You're god damned, fucking right.

DaveyJones's picture

all those hard consonants, like pounding something 

KickIce's picture

One of these days that curve is going to resemble an L .

 

andybev01's picture

...only if you pound it wrong.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

This should help retail sales and small business hiring. They no inflation here.

People wont notice the fifty dolla fillups during all the holiday travels. They'll happily pay it cause they have steady jobs on their way to buy china made sweaters and tvs at the mall.

malikai's picture

I've been watching it very closely. In fact, it has netted me £20,000 today (in my play spread betting account). Yesterday Alex Jones had that Lindsey Williams guy on (the pastor whos'e claim to fame was saying there was more oil under some island in Alaska than there is under the Saudi sands). He called for $200/bbl oil by the end of 2011. He also said that the Eurozone would completely collapse in 2011. In addition, within three weeks of the Eurozone collapse, the US would follow suit.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

it is funny that peak oil is their most guarded secret, when finite resources are so simple that kindergartebers can get it. the rich will give away info only if to keep the peak oil myth. jim tucker and williams ONLY say what they are told. think about that.
And if there is a "super reserve" in Alaska that sonar tech has failed to map for the last 40 years, it could mitgate peak oil production for a minute...literally.

malikai's picture

You say that, and while I believe it as well, I must say, the story has been told too many times and mispredicted too many times.

 

A couple years ago when the rug was pulled out underneath the $150/bbl point, I told my father it was temporary and would give us all a false sense of security, leading to a much larger spike when the economy made some return to normalcy. I told him that, whether based on geological or political reasons, peak oil would be upon us soon enough. He told me, "No, I have been hearing that since the early 70s. First it would happen in the 80s, then the 90s, and now I'm supposed to believe it will happen in the 00s. Yet all the while production increases by technological means alone."

 

Some of the old timers have been jaded by false predictions and cannot overcome the failed predictions of passed days, regardless of the clear geological and political facts present. In short, "peak oil" will never be accepted until the government comes out and says "we're implementing rationing to deal with PO". Of course, as you and I know, it will be too late then.

jahbless's picture

 

"...Yet all the while production increases by technological means alone."

 

The correct term, ladies and gentlemen, is extraction.

<returns pipe to corner of mouth, raises eyebrow and reclines into club chair.>

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

And an increase in extraction due to technological advances will do what to the production peak in the end run? An increase in extraction qickens the production collapse.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

One should not confuse specific production peaks like the American production peak of '71 and the Russian production peak of '89 and peak world production. the final differnce is in the addition of the specifics.

PolishErick's picture

Im not a geologist and I dont work in the oil industry- even if I would be both, I still wouldnt know all the facts about world reserves (because the world is too fucking big)...

 

Although I dont know how many trilions of barels are there to extract I know the moast important part of the puzzle- wether it will be because the oil runs out or not, the real Peak Oil crisis will start when someone at the very top says: "dont give the flock any more gasoline- let them eat cake"...

 

It WILL be the end of this world of shit and the beginning of hell on earth.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

As economics is buried, peak oil raises its dubious head. This death cross which was perped on one side from the likes of Greenspan, Rubin, Summers, and Bernanke, is also fashioned on the annals of 'Mercan ignorance. Thelma and Louise play the part, as American drives off the very real cliff of finite resources, and into the abyss of financial debt collapse.

trav7777's picture

permanently high oil...get used to it.

How long before idiots start blaming "Exxon" and the other "big oil companies" who they believe have the power to unilaterally set prices?