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Crude Passes $91, As $100 Billion In US GDP Is Wiped Out In Minutes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A few days ago, when oil was pushing on $89 we said that we expect oil to pass $100 in a few weeks, now that chasing returns in stocks is beyond ludicrous, and speculators are branching out to those commodities which have not yet been cornered by the JP Morgue, although we are confident the Masters brain trust is plotting and scheming how to create a synthetic security that allows crude to hit $150 as RBOB goes negative. As of a few minutes ago, WTI has just passed $91, which for those who have taken math means that $100 oil is less than $9 away. And as a reminder, every $1 rise in oil reduces US GDP by $100 billion, just as every cent increase in gas prices lowers disposable income by $600 million. Who would have thought that trillions in binary dollars just sitting there, unused, unwanted, doing nothing but taking up EEPROM space could possibly have an inflationary impact...

 

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Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:10 | 826481 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Yes, you were a tad gluttonous.. I went back for seconds in the recent oil post.

I think it time to re-enter the breech...

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:26 | 826526 bingaling
bingaling's picture

I met a Cougar in a bar one night she took me home and treated me like a piece of meat the next morning - to be young again

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:58 | 826613 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Gluttony in the service of justice is no vice.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:12 | 826654 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

But rather a public service that should be encouraged at every turn. Be the Cougar, not the antelope.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 18:39 | 827095 bingaling
bingaling's picture

I usually was , that's what made the night so fn bizarre .

Fri, 12/24/2010 - 02:33 | 827663 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I enjoyed watching you two eat

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:31 | 826362 sabra1
sabra1's picture

i'm very impatient, can someone please attack iran already?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:40 | 826381 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, do somethin already...the planned entertainment of imaginary financial news is getting booooriiiing!

Been too long without some govt staged terror attacks without new wars starting and the old wars are really just SO 5 years ago.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:57 | 826446 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

If you're bored maybe you need to go shopping.  I'm sure Apple has all kinds of new i-goodies available.  Come on, give it a try - 300 million Americans can't be wrong.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:08 | 826478 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Aw man I already got a bunch of those Max Ipads or whatever you calls em under the bathroom sink from the ex.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:30 | 826540 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Touche:)

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:51 | 826597 Seer
Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:39 | 826386 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Come on slackers lets break 100 today !!!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:40 | 826387 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:42 | 826395 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Oil is no longer treated like a commodity. It is a stock, Just like Google. I wouldn't be surprised if oil goes up $5.00 in a day. It all depends on what mood HAL, The incredible pump machine is in. 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:45 | 826409 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Pumping GOOG to $150 a share didn't explode the economic engine. $150 oil will nuke the entire works and  put GOOG back at $1.

It's all linear until it isn't.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:48 | 826417 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Thats correct. I wish the forces that drive the market would realize that.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:52 | 826428 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

that's below the offering price.  it would constitute a "tax loss."  the government only wants "gains"--unless "it's a certain loss"--in which case "they're all for it."

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:50 | 826427 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bring it plocequ, lets see what $4.50 gas and $5 diesel does to commutes, work routes, and long haul truckers delivering food. Its all just a stock, till people actually have to pay it. Whats Bernank going to do then, print to send people $1,000 checks for gas buying to support the rocketing price? Central planning sucks and will implode.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:54 | 826438 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

I say this because of the way its behaving. Just like a stock

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:51 | 827027 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Just a few anecdotal items:

• Called cable co. and complained about absurd late fees for services not even delivered at time of billing. Said I would cancel service if late fees were not credited. Spoke to customer rep and her boss. They decided to cut my current bill to ZERO. Total savings, $130.00.

• Sister has 4 credit cards at 2.9% with Chase. Never late, always pays on time. The one with 250,000 points came up for renewal. (used to be a $20K line of credit, reduced to $4K in 2008 on bankers whim). Chase did not renew card. Told her, sorry, points no good. I told her to pull all accounts and sue.

• Bought gas yesterday at $3.09 per gal. Same station, today, $3.15.

• Ordered business cards off an internet offer that said free rubber stamp and free card holder. Ordered cards, never prompted for stamp of holder. Called customer service. After yelling for two minutes, they took order for stamp and holder over phone.

• Talked to county tax office on delinquent prop. tax. Asked if they could stop interest. Simple answer: "No." Said, "fine, Merry Christmas." Decided to buy PMs instead of paying tax. County can't even begin foreclosure until April, 2012, at which time they'll likely be in the same situation the banks find themselves. Courts too crowded to handle the load.

The moral is: You have to be prepared to fight for everything, go to the mat with "authorities" if need be. They are spineless and will bend and eventually break from the sheer weight of numbers.

Happy Holidays. Buy a dip this Christmas.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:42 | 826399 Peterpaul
Peterpaul's picture

The cynic in me says this rise in the price of oil is a controlled climb; I believe the price of oil is allowed to rise in order to provide cover for the increased cost inputs in other raw materials (cotton, feed, rare earths, etc.) that the Fed knows are coming down the line.

 

What better way to explain to the populace that the price of everything exploded in 2011 because the price of oil got too high due to those nasty foreigners. The fed gets cover and someone to buy Treasuries (aka Saudi A...), the big boys make lots of money, and we get the hose again.

 

Nice.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:53 | 826431 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

i thought the point of "killing the foreigners" was for their oil?  what happened?  how did oil become "bad...but in a good kind of way"?  I sense "the hottie effect...

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:46 | 826402 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Who would have thought that trillions in binary dollars just sitting there, unused, unwanted, doing nothing but taking up EEPROM space could possibly have an inflationary impact...

FARTS!

After reading that statement, all readers should be given a credit at Oscar Mayer for a bologna sandwich. 

Is this an under-handed accusation to say QE2 is inflationary?

Is there any empirical evidence to suggest this rise in oil is due to moving an asset from the savings to the checking side of member banks' ledgers?

That money has NOT diffused into circulation, and it certainly isn't buying the oil market. 

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:07 | 826471 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Poor ol lonely BennieBux!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:12 | 826634 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"I'll have peas because I don't like carrots."
"Who said anything about peas?"
"Who said anything about carrots?"

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:43 | 826404 yabs
yabs's picture

I agree Sheep

I have been expecting a 9/11 for some time

mind you I have been expecting a stock crash as well

I've  actually been expecting Doom all round and now dissapointed there is none:(

come on wheres the doom

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:55 | 826430 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No one knows the time, but its out there getting closer. Lindsey Williams predicted (not really he was told by his 'elitist oil industry source') That oil would bust a move to $100 by year end, and also said within a couple months theyd stage events and the stock markets wont actually plunge, markets 'just wont matter anymore'...pretty chilling thought.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:58 | 826615 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

AJ is way out, but he does make some great points.

Anyway, I wish LW would hurry the hell up and get to the effing point when he speaks. I recall watching "The Elite Speaks" and he took 20 minutes of rambling to get to his first point. Frustrating.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:17 | 826811 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

True, Williams lacks the talent of getting to the point.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 19:13 | 827145 Thorny Xi
Thorny Xi's picture

In the sprit of the season, "For in such an hour as ye know not..."  (Jeebus)

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:49 | 826421 TeresaE
TeresaE's picture

Thank GAWD Obama shut down American off shore drilling for seven years.

Else it would be evil American jobs being created to balance out the losses that higher oil prices historically bring.

Oops, almost created a couple non-Federally funded jobs there, disaster averted, mission accomplished.

ll is well and I'll now return you to your regularly scheduled 25% interest rate credit card lifestyle.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:55 | 826439 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

and "that's a TM next to that Obama."  spot on, love it.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:57 | 826445 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and thank Gawd that wasnt all staged or anything, with GS shorting BP days before 'the spill', Halliburton buying Boots and Coots oil cleanup company, and the following ban on drilling. Just all chance events, un related.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:03 | 826628 Seer
Seer's picture

Sigh... the US is the #3 producer of oil (and the #1 consumer). Contrary to what most people "understand," a bottleneck is in refining; but... there's a reason why refinery capacity isn't being increased, and that's because there isn't a sufficent investment reason- oil consumption is going into decline.  Does the term "push on a string" mean anything to you?

Try and extrapolate your thinking out a bit.  Your strategy is basically that of "strength through exhaustion."  Pump it out of the ground faster so that we can be more sustainable!

Yeah, I suppose that we could sell our oil to China, but that would just further erode our production capabilities: the money could be used to pay down US debt to China, yeah, but less US spending would mean less production by China, resulting in less money for them to buy our debt, in which case there isn't any clear win.  And when we run out of oil we'd have absolutely nothing to show for it.

Critical thinking, apparently it's not for everyone...

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:15 | 826804 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The real reason we dont extract more oil? All of our oil has long ago been locked in collateral for all our borrowing from China.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:56 | 826441 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Bring on $200 a barrel. It's the only way J6P will wake up to the fraud for what it is.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 13:59 | 826447 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I totally agree, bring on $5 gas before Christmas! HO HO HO take that yule log right up the ass there J6P!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:00 | 826451 yabs
yabs's picture

sheep dog

well yes the markets seem bullet proof right now

not sure about Lyndsey Williams though

he claims there is abiotic oil

not sure about that as i work in oil industry.

I hasve no doubt those evensts are coming but just thought they would have occurred by now

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:02 | 826460 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'd figured they'd have occurred by now myself too. Oh well, all it means is when the S does finally hit the fan, it will be just that much worse, higher to fall from.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:04 | 826465 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Abiotic oil' well doesnt that just mean that new oil is being created now? Contrary to the idea that all oil has already been formed long ago and its over? I thought it was pretty well accepted and proven that new oil is being formed all the time. Isnt oil from decaying plant material mostly? Arent plants in bogs all over the world decaying and forming oil? I thought it was.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:11 | 826484 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Don't matter because I have L. Blankfein by the balls, Dog.  Just went long UnicornDew futures and also received confirmation of my mating pair of unicorns.  Wave of the future, Dog.  Wave of the future.

Next up....PixieDust pattens.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:59 | 827040 velobabe
velobabe's picture

CDiddy your great. like a smart one with great sarcasm, bet you have a high IQ?

UnicornDew, now that is something i could wrap my mouth around.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:06 | 826642 Seer
Seer's picture

That's the problem with all the labeling/semantics, it kills the larger discussion/understanding.  Yes, nothing is static, more oil IS being "created," but, the issue is whether it's at a high enough rate to be meaningful/exploitable.

Stuff formed in bogs is, I believe, gaseous in nature (methane?), oil is a different beast/process (requires a lot of pressure and heat).

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:15 | 826492 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Didn't China just start trading renmibi for products priced in rubles directly with Russia cutting out the middle man(US dollar) ? How is that going to affect prices in US dollars ? Isn't it the end of exportation of inflation  where it comes home to roost instead ? And would the trading between the 2  have such a quick impact on prices even though the trades are relatively small as the MSM reports?

I don't always trust the MSM to report the truth so can anyone verify if the trading is "small" or is it a cover story so panic doesnt settle in and the big boys can move their money first so they don't take a beating ?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:17 | 826661 Seer
Seer's picture

I have to wonder how much activity there is on this.  I believe that this was brought up a year ago (or so) as well.  Is it posturing, or the real thing?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:38 | 826878 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Ny Times ran an article that it started on the 14th December

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:16 | 826494 bmfe
bmfe's picture

Two incestuous powers: banksters and oilmen.  Everyone gets a turn; now spread ‘em.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:23 | 826496 bmfe
bmfe's picture

dp.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:17 | 826500 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

It's going to take about 12 dollars per gallon gas to get us to stop driving all together, about the net wages each week of work.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:29 | 826507 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

Abiotic "Bitches"

You've been conned !

see:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJdNqYeVwX4

and:

http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=45838

  • Oil being discovered at 30,000 feet, far below the 18,000 feet where organic matter is no longer found.
  • Wells pumped dry later replenished.
  • Volume of oil pumped thus far not accountable from organic material alone according to present models.
  • In Situ production of methane under the conditions that exist in the Earth's upper mantle. (PhysicsWeb; Sept. 14, 2004)
  • The essence of the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins

     

    The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is an extensive body of scientific knowledge which covers the subjects of the chemical genesis of the hydrocarbon molecules which comprise natural petroleum, the physical processes which occasion their terrestrial concentration, the dynamical processes of the movement of that material into geological reservoirs of petroleum, and the location and economic production of petroleum. The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins recognizes that petroleum is a primordial material of deep origin which has been erupted into the crust of the Earth. In short, and bluntly, petroleum is not a "fossil fuel" and has no intrinsic connection with dead dinosaurs (or any other biological detritus) "in the sediments" (or anywhere else)...

    The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of petroleum is based upon rigorous scientific reasoning, consistent with the laws of physics and chemistry, as well as upon extensive geological observation, and rests squarely in the mainstream of modern physics and chemistry, from which it draws its provenance. Much of the modern Russian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum genesis developed from the sciences of chemistry and thermodynamics, and accordingly the modern theory has steadfastly held as a central tenet that the generation of hydrocarbons must conform to the general laws of chemical thermodynamics, - as must likewise all matter. In such respect, modern Russian-Ukrainian petroleum science contrasts strongly to what are too often passed off as "theories" in the field of geology in Britain and the U.S.A.

    In the pages containing articles connected with petroleum economics, there are several papers by Professor Michael C. Lynch of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology which address directly the myth of "oil exhaustion." There is also a link to an article by Professor Peter Odell of the London School of Economics concerning the common misperceptions connected with petroleum economics.

     

    One should understand that these papers cannot give justice to the immense literature of modern Russian petroleum science. During the half century between 1951-2001, there have been thousands of articles published in the mainstream Russian scientific journals on the modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins, and many books and monographs. For example, V. A. Krayushkin has published more than two hundred fifty articles on modern petroleum geology, and several books.

    In light of the extensive literature of modern Russian petroleum science, questions inevitably arise among persons reading of it for the first time: Why has there been nothing published on this body of knowledge in the English-language (or American) journals which purportedly deal with matters involving petroleum ? Why have there never been Russian or Ukrainian petroleum scientists invited to address a meeting of, e.g., the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (A.A.P.G.) ? Why has there not been appointed to the faculty of a single department of Earth sciences, at any university in the U.S.A., a petroleum scientist competent to teach modern petroleum science ? In short, why have persons in the U.S.A. never heard of this body of knowledge ?

    Such lack of reporting has not happened by accident. As the reader may surmise, this dysfunctional behavior has been a rather typical manifestation of the purveyors of quackery, desperately striving to preserve their self-image, conceits, and jobs. In short, there has been at work the Wizard of Oz chicanery, - before the little dog Toto snatched away the curtain. No reader should entertain an illusion that the publishing of these articles, in first-rank scientific journals such as Physical-Chemistry/Chemical-Physics, or the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, has been welcomed by the British/American petroleum geo-phrenology brotherhood.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:33 | 826551 FrankIvy
FrankIvy's picture

The only way to support unscientific nonsense like abiotic oil is to believe that there is a worldwide conspiracy to make us all pay more for gasoline, even as society crashes down around those in power.

Makes no sense on any level.

Occam's razor bitches - oil production is declining, thus price is increasing.

Fri, 12/24/2010 - 08:52 | 827833 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

 

"The only way to support unscientific nonsense like abiotic oil is to believe that there is a worldwide conspiracy to make us all pay more for gasoline, even as society crashes down around those in power.

Makes no sense on any level."

 

Yeah, and for that to be true someone would need to be manipulating the markets, and what are the chances of that happening?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:49 | 826572 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  You simply don't get it. I am not going to debate Abiotic oil on the internet with cranks. I would rather mud wrestle a pig. But what I will debate is even if it exists, the rate at which it contributes is negligible. So it doesn't matter.

  It is the rate of extraction that matters, not the size of the putative reservoir. In simple calculus

Q = amount of oil, important but  dQ/dt is the important number.

 

Imagine have $1,000,000,000 in your bank account, but a daily ATM limit of $400. Are you rich?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:05 | 826638 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Abiotic oil is not about actually having any oil. It is about keeping alive a sense of hope in the face of impending doom.

Ranks up there with prayer. At the end of the world, everyone is either struggling against their odds, or praying. People who can neither cope nor change need something to cling to before they are pushed off the edge of existence.

Can't fault them for that. It only looks stupid to those who have options.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:26 | 826693 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I agree.

However, before a man has no options, he usually has many options and no desire to select one. Thus the Gods of all the Universe have the last laugh and rescind them all one by one till you have none.

Quick, left.....right.....or straight ahead? Oops, you took too long. Too late, here comes that tracker trailer head on.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:46 | 826744 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Very true indeed.

Words to the wise: Move it.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:22 | 826509 yabs
yabs's picture

abiotic oil assumes that oil is produced in the mantle ie non organic and is thus renewable

bs in my opinion

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:24 | 826512 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Double penetration of a post

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:22 | 826517 bingaling
bingaling's picture

WTF IS error 503 Guru Meditation?

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:36 | 826556 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

ZH's version of time out for bad (server) behaviour.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:12 | 826653 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Thanks Cog Dis. So this is the precursor to Marla in the cave

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:17 | 826663 mach777
mach777's picture

The commodore Amiga's version of the windows bluescreen crash was "Guru meditation".

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:42 | 826889 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Old Skool Bitchez.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:41 | 827014 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Old school was swapping out the boot disk on a PDP 11/34 and swapping in the disk with the applications...

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 18:41 | 827100 bingaling
bingaling's picture

Yeah thats real old school you completely lost me .

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 20:30 | 827108 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  The disk was all of 20 mb...resembled the rear differential on an F-150, similarity didn't end there, damn thing weighed about 20 lbs.

Almost forgot, the 11/34's were used for slow controls in most Nuclear powerplants in north america for many years. 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:25 | 826519 yabs
yabs's picture

though what I have learnt over the last few years

Who knows maybe EVERYHTING we have ever been told is bullshit

so maybe oil is NOT finite

who knows I'm open to anything

maybe the bernank etc really are reptilian aliens

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:20 | 826672 Seer
Seer's picture

"so maybe oil is NOT finite"

And maybe gravity doesn't really exist...

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:29 | 826534 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

look at the bright side re rbob: it will cause retail sales to be up which means ramp job for stocks.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:29 | 826537 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

It just keeps getting better.

Pay us now or pay us later, with interest & penalties.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:34 | 826542 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Ah here we go again...

Back in 2008, based on demand, spare oil capacity in SA (primarily Arabian heavy, for which there is no spare refining capacity in the world, 99% of people do not understand that a refinery is optimized for its feedstock, variables include API, sulfur content etc... this is not plug and play) there was strong case for $125 a barrel for oil of WTI quality. The weighted monthly peak was $134, 7% higher, there was a blow off top to $147. Moreover, DXY was about 73 at the time. Now the dollar index is 80, implying an equivalent crude price of $100.

 Demand is there, it is reflected in the Brent-WTI spread. Brent is tanker deliverable, i.e. you can ship it anyway. WTI is completely US-centric. The US is no longer the swing-demander, any drop in US demand is absorbed by the BRICs and the the increasing demand of net Exporting nations.

The surefire way to gauge demand in the US is to examine the relative spread between diesel and gasoline at your local station. There is no longer an excess, relative to gasoline, of diesel on the market. This reflects the demand from the rest of the world.

Recently as you know, there have been numerous refinery outages in France among other places. There is a mismatch between the quality of oil on the market and the requirements for refinery feed stock.

Production, excuse me, extraction has not kept pace with rising demand since 2004. Do not be fooled by the increases in NGL and "other liquids". While useful, they are not oil.

Get used to living "on the peak", we have maybe 3 years in this situation. I call it the saw-tooth economy. By no later than 2018, the worlds oil supply will tip over into decline. You can make good argument that the decline rate will be anywhere from 3 to 6% per annum. Plan accordingly

If oil drops for what ever reason, I suggest you snarf up PBT. There was a generational buy when it dipped in the panic of 09. Was $8.30, now $22.50 and paying ~$0.11 per month taxed as a long term cap-gain.

Now, is there is anything here that you do not understand?

 

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:27 | 826696 sbenard
sbenard's picture

"Now, is there is anything here that you do not understand?"

Yes! What's PBT? Thanks!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:23 | 826950 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Permian Basin Royalty Trust

 Research the dividend and price history at any decent financial web site. Or go straight to:

http://www.pbt-permianbasintrust.com/

The only distateful aspect of the company is that B of A is the trustee agent. PBT is not really to be traded often, it is very liquid (pun intended) but it is more complicated from a tax perspective. This is complexity that you incur by owning the underlying cashflows of an oil field. In an IRA, trade away, but, you loose some of the  tax advantages.

If you would like to balance out with more Nat Gas, try SBR as well. And the pure Nat gas play HGT.

Disclaimer: Between my clients and myself, all three are held with significant positions.

Fri, 12/24/2010 - 02:43 | 827670 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

2018?.... and no earlier than...now?

Fri, 12/24/2010 - 10:40 | 827863 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 No need to be an alarmist! Too many doomers have made early predictions that have been wrong, it has not helped.  We could turn over as early as 2012, I wont quibble over details.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:45 | 826581 primefool
primefool's picture

In the global chess game it all makes sense. Skyhigh oil prices will finish off the "Asian Miracle" - what with inflation already pushing double digits when oil was at 80. As for the local peasants - well "rationing" may well become the new meme. People will have to line up for ration cards to get their weekly allotment of gasoline. ( favored folks in strategicaly important jobs - like wall street will of course be exempt from rationing - and the govt will set up special filling stations for these folks).

So - it works for everyone - as usual.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 14:55 | 826602 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 The Chinese and Indians can keep up with us on bidding for a while. Think of the marginal gain that a BRIC country company gets from using a gallon of diesel. They are levering the true value of oil. We simply burn it to move oversized vehicles to the mall. It is dominated by discretionary burning, with little economic impact as opposed to increasing productivity/economic growth.

 Do I think the Asian nations are screwed. Yes, no argument, but, in some sense we are more screwed. 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:19 | 826669 primefool
primefool's picture

Since oil supply is flattening out - demand growth must be controlled. US demand has been declining for the last 3 years. All the demand growth is coming because of the very rapid growth in Chindia. So the solution for high oil prices is high oil prices. Get it high enough, inflation in Chindia started rocketing, forcing monetary tightening . Monetary tightening in an region fuelled by property bubbles and over-investment - will slow down Asia for a good long time.

So - strategy is - push oil up skyhigh - to break the feverish pace of asian growth.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:26 | 826981 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

   Money tightening will control the oil price to the extent that you supress economic activity which in turn does effect oil. It is my opinion that letting the price of oil control the economy directly is a more free market approach that a central committee, aka, the FED, determining things.

Fri, 12/24/2010 - 02:47 | 827673 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

absolutely, but that's not happening. wars are a pretty inefficient free market approach

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:22 | 826655 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

TD how about something on the EU bonds getting destroyed? Greece  now 12.20%, Ireland over 9%.  somethin for a bear to chew on.

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:12 | 826797 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Basically none of it matters right now, we're in the middle of a euphoric consumer shopping spree, but shortly it will matter when they want it to.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:19 | 826674 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

Who is long Oil?

OLO and USO all the way!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:14 | 826952 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

USO is a mugs game, with a caveat, you buy USO only when the oil curve is in backwardation. For the past 2 years (or so) the curve has been into contango and you have been killed by the roll.

  If anyone does not understand the above, you should not be in USO or UNG or the gasoline ETF (the ticker escapes me). Stick to PBT.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 18:55 | 827115 VeloSpade
VeloSpade's picture

Backdooraction er I mean backwardation is now, at least for USO.  Lube up that hershey expressway and strike some oil.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:24 | 826685 sbenard
sbenard's picture

And all we have to do is look at Chavez' Venezuela to see what the coming price controls will do to the cost of energy and the impact on supplies!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:36 | 826720 Seer
Seer's picture

Texas Railroad Commission, look it up... (basis of OPEC, which, like everything else that's now causing us ills, was a product of US meddling)

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:31 | 826702 delacroix
delacroix's picture

heavy crude refineries, being built, in carribean nations, will take venezuela oil away from our facilities. thats gonna hurt

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:47 | 826749 Seer
Seer's picture

Hoping that you might know this... do you know what percentage of total refining capacity US heavy crude is?

I was thinking it wasn't that great, and that the oil industry was trying to blame environmentalists for shortages in refined products, shifting the focus away from the fact that they're heavily slanted toward refining light sweet, which is in decline: the misdirection was to keep people from realizing that if light sweet can go into decline, then ALL oil can do so! (read "backdoor way to build infrastructure to refine heavy crude w/o alarming the populace")

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 18:53 | 827113 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Don't recall the exact the numbers but US has "good" capacity for heavy sour crude. Valero is the largest refiner of heavy crude in the world. Most US refineries have been retrofitted.

  Light sweet, admitted an arbitrary term, has been in decline since 1998 or so....

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:32 | 826703 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

This is all part of the plan to get the Chinese to float the Yuan. Pegged to the dollar, the cost of food and energy is going to kill them. Oil over $90/bbl may be what it takes to get them to "co-operate".

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:11 | 826793 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes once again the US 'chess master' amateurs who cant think past 1 move are taking on those who wrote The Art of War a couple thousand years ago.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:40 | 827009 VeloSpade
VeloSpade's picture

Bend over SheepDog, I want to give you your x-mas gift early... in your stinky little animal butt hole.  Merry x-mas all...carry on.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:36 | 826719 Salinger
Salinger's picture

not to worry - this just in


Obama to regulate greenhouse gases from power plants

23 December 2010 Last updated at 13:06 ET

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101223/pl_afp/usclimatewarmingenergy

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-12069884

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:40 | 826730 Seer
Seer's picture

Like I'd mentioned in another thread, raw meat for the right-wingers.  More fodder to distract us from the fact that the entire system is Ponzi- growth is unsustainable.

If US arms control treaties are anything to go by then there's no threat here.  But like I said, raw meat to the right-wingers...  Ah, so many suckers, so little time...

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:41 | 826727 Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

US GDP does not fail in apsolute terms. It would if they bought

the oil from Sadam Husein and not from Chevron or other American oil companies around the world who are extracting. The big profits this US companies are making on such a high prices will return to there home land US at some point of time.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 15:43 | 826740 Seer
Seer's picture

Who the hell is "Sadam Husein?"

NOTE: it's OK to double up letters (see NOTE2).

NOTE2: "Saddam Hussein" is dead.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:09 | 826791 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Clearly not a native English speaker. Or someone from the back woods of America. I suspect the former or a combo of both. :>)

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:52 | 826920 creviceCaress
creviceCaress's picture

p*shaw.....wicked hell yah, Sean7k

 

us.glov acquiesce on PO?  not bloody likely>

 

definite false flag jinxrey before that......or solar storms....or black swans, palin presidents...

 

the horse will be rode into

ground

 

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 16:55 | 826929 ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

EEPROM

Fuck man, making me feel like a child up in this website.  You're showin' your age.  That tech is at least two decades old.  We've moved on to far more versatile and compact nonvolatile memory :-P

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:14 | 826957 Seer
Seer's picture

Hey, "child," how about working off all that debt that the old folks racked up? </sarcasm>

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 18:56 | 827116 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

TD originally had "switched into the ferrite cores" but someone must have pinged him quickly because then it became EEPROMs. I sympathize. It's hard to keep up with the newer stuff.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 17:46 | 827022 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Wow... I expected a number of trolls to emerge from the thrall pits... Guess they got scared away.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 18:57 | 827118 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Oil company execs and PR shills take off a few extra days around Xmas so they can visit the orphanages and burn $50 bills for the amusement of the kids. Public service like that, it's what tax dollars are for.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 19:12 | 827143 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

 Ouch....

I gotta re-find an old youtube about the new US currency denominated in gallons of gas as part of a Bush-Cheney promotion. Almost pissed my self laughing...

wait, here it is...

http://www.blip.tv/file/520347

quick commercial first though.  Enjoy!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 20:43 | 827279 squexx
squexx's picture

LOL!!!!!!!!

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 18:16 | 827066 Wheatman
Wheatman's picture

Right Tyler, so now that oil is going to $100 soon, will you please give up your ridiculous bond bull scenarios. How can treasuries survive at $100 barrel of oil. They can't. Stagflation, high rates, bankruptcies and global catastophe are imminent. Thanks to the USA, a politically moron dominated criminal infested nazi run country. Thanks for the global meltdown Uncle Sam.

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 20:03 | 827223 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

Off topic but: 

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Chile’s giant Collahuasi copper mine, the world’s third largest, has halted shipments indefinitely following an accident at the mine’s ore shipping terminal.

Mine officials said the mishap had not affected Collahuasi’s actual mining operations, but that they are scrambling to find some other way to ship stockpiled copper concentrate from the facility after a shiploader at the Punta Patache port collapsed, reportedly killing three workers. They said they did not know how long shipments would be suspended. Separately, a port official told Reuters it could take at least a month to repair the damaged loading station.

http://goo.gl/Qj9jD

Imagine being LUCKY enough to be long 90% of the LME copper when this happens!!  Is this Casino Royale or what?

 

 

Thu, 12/23/2010 - 20:42 | 827277 squexx
squexx's picture

Actually it's, "Just buy the fucking dip!"

Fri, 12/24/2010 - 13:11 | 828074 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Bennie is breaking the BRICS, inflationary pressures being exported across the globe.. A drowning man (country) standing on the shoulders of BRICS gasping for the last breath.  This will not end well.

Fri, 12/24/2010 - 13:54 | 828142 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  Yes... he is deluded in that he wants to devalue, but the essence of US hegemony is that commodities are priced in US dollars, i.e. the dollar is backed by oil, catch-22.

The US consumer is going to get outbid for the marginal barrel of oil.

Sat, 12/25/2010 - 00:21 | 829194 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Is just me or do you also feel that a major conversion of forces is about to be focused onto the US economy and the US.

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