Crude Plunges

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Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:15 | 1235047 kengland
kengland's picture

Long treasuries and short with SMN as of FRI. I beleive Rosenberg went long, capitulated, last Wed. Eignhorn followed suit.

The top is here

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:16 | 1235076 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

is this the expected rotation from the inflationary to deflationary mood which is so very critical for Bernanke to launch his third and final QEasing episode?


QE^n is coming.  Has to.  No way out, so this 'deflation' is part of the master plan.


Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:35 | 1235192 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Careful. Mention the 'D' word around here and watch the hedgers go apeshit.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:45 | 1235227 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

This chart is skewed.  CL didn't drop NEARLY as much as Silver!  

ZH, stop lying!  Silver dropped almost 20%, CL went from 114 to 111.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:04 | 1235320 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Didn't know that. I don't think people are even watching it. It's kind of like the royal wedding of things going on in the financial market.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:07 | 1235335 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

The chart is overlaying them on scale that is not relevant to the drop.  Very misleading...  Silver is now 40 handle.  I am actually not involved and really just angry at ZH for all the disinformation, people got hurt, and most likely big guys who DONT CARE about margins benefitted.  What a joke.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:11 | 1235604 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm down 46000$ on this drop, but still up 53000$. I don't really care about this drop. I only started to notice it 3 to 4$ ago, and I'm like immune for it.

What does bug me is morons like you turning this site into A YAHOO FINANCE HILL BILLY GROUND!




Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:54 | 1235726 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

You could have kept that 46,000, by selling near 48 and buy it now.  But hey, buy and hope.

BTW, it is just factual that the chart is misleading?  Bloomberg GP function allow you manipulate the charts and that is what this is.  Do you even know what you are talking about?  At a minimum, try google finance chart or if you are truly retail.  

The fact is that this chart is distorted ON purpose!  

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:55 | 1235735 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Bullshit. When gold drops they simply stretch the spread to all hell. There is no diving out and getting back in. If you guys would take some losses and not play the gumby over spot game people wouldn't stick to it like super glue. You can't even manipulate people's actions any more. You teach them to get out and stay out. You can't go and pick up any damn silver for 44 bucks right now. You're going to be paying 50 for it just like you were a week ago or you're going to be ordering physical and spending hours trying to pester whoever said they sold it to you to cough it up.

The silvers just fucking gone.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 17:04 | 1235746 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Huh, you are talking about the physical market.  (bid/ask spread wide enough to drive a truck through.)  I am talking about the SI future market, which is what spot is based on. And where the margin was recently raised for the third time.  

So, you are clearly wrong and naive.   Sell high and buy low clearly goes counter to your believe system.  

I guess you like to buy high, buy low, buy lower, and buy lowest... 

Good luck.


Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:36 | 1235683 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

You should direct your anger at the fascists running this country. Disinformation? People getting hurt? Not one fascists employee of a TBTF bank or their fascist enablers within the federal govenment have been indicted for rampant financial fraud.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:52 | 1235731 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Don't get me wrong.  I am upset with the govt, banks, Timmy G, Ben... and just about everybody but my friends and family.  But call a spade a spade...  Just be fair!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:18 | 1235342 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Great time to buy physical PM's at great discount.

Silver at 40, than you JPMoron!!

Let the bankers play with they later turn to paupers!

And the USD is plunging next to the soaring CHF:

Can you hear the Austrian banks go *KA-BOOM*?



Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:15 | 1235370 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture

Silver top 48.55



Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:35 | 1235395 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

???  LMAO.

You are clearly retail... SLV doesn't count!

SI Future was at 49.79, now 40.85.  Get the pricing data right! (Both April/May/June are trading tight.)  

Come on, at least the physical folk has some point, they can take that metal and swallow it when the mobs come.  SLV, is totally fraudulent!

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:40 | 1235467 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

the Only reason for silver to fall down is an unprecedented three margin hikes in a week on varying global holidays too. If it really were a major issue, gold would have sold off too. It didnt.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 17:06 | 1235760 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

Which is part of the game.  Exchange change margins.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:45 | 1235506 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

I dont think it really counts, they hit those number in asia over night when every market was closed. Price was between 48-49 as the high.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:54 | 1235543 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

I was able to sell some bars locally @ $48 last week..  he doesn't gouge either way so might be able to grab them back this week for a decent gain



Tue, 05/03/2011 - 16:59 | 1235736 What does it al...
What does it all mean's picture

NO!  learn your micro market sturcture.  SI future was trading in NY hours.  SLV is ETF and doesn't trade until 4am to 8pm.  

SI was entirely tradeable!  Even at the lower margin (pre the three reductions.)

Come on, if you are in this, you should know that the CME routinely raise margins... which is what a lot of ppl on this blog was saying.  Bubble was going to burst... you just didn't listen...



Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:40 | 1235217 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If 'deflation' is oil at $111, we're fuked.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:21 | 1235402 Pepe
Pepe's picture

master manipu-flation

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:21 | 1235104 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Rosie didn't go "long" - but acknowledged it could go higher.

Big Diff.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:32 | 1235156 kengland
kengland's picture


Well, he didn't say he was buying but the implication in his statement is that he understands why folks would. Either way, that is capitulation from the ober bear.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:54 | 1235280 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

apparently you haven't read Rosie's stuff. Long utilities, long bonds (of all durations, but was eyeing longer maturities back in April 2010), long gold/silver..

so the advice has been just fine.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:32 | 1235147 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

This just in....


Peace breaks out in MENA region, 0bama announces new liberal domestic drilling policy, and Federal Reserve announces they will raise interest rates to instill confidence in the dollar.



Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:47 | 1235237 6 String
6 String's picture

No QE3 for a bit means short everything, included in this is everything, EVERYthing, in Tepper's portfolio.

Remember, it is only the QE's that has brought everything up. The reverse will be true.


Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:35 | 1235459 Boston
Boston's picture

Long treasuries

Exactly.  And well after the deflation sets in (this is just the beginning), look for hints from Bernanke that the withdrawl of QE is the "cause" of all this turmoil.  Look for confirmation pieces from Hilsenrath in the WSJ.  And then wait for the big QE3 speech from Ben.

Then exit Treasury longs and wait for technical confirmation to short....big time.




Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:14 | 1235061 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

tbtf just got the api and eia inventory reports.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:17 | 1235063 Ancona
Ancona's picture

QE can't end. Period.

This "recovery" is anything but organic. When the fed removes the extra liquidity, the run on hte markets will begin, and we can't have that now can we?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:21 | 1235106 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Exactly, if it does end, it resets back to the purpose it was first created for. The system is a monster that has built itself to a point were if you stop feeding it, it will collapse. Worse still, no one has a clue how the system works.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:33 | 1235172 Holodomor2012
Holodomor2012's picture

It actually reached that point the moment they issued their first FRN at interest.  Principle in circulation will always be less than the principle plus interest owed back. 

P < P + I

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:15 | 1235361 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

The FED mission of recovery is secondary to there misson of backstopping the biggest banks.  You are mistaken if you think the FEDs actions are to maintain a recovery.  They will try to engineer a recovery if it is in the best interest of the big banks.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 17:47 | 1235896 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

The Bernank will let everything collapse enough until all the critics STFU about QE.  It'll take a month, two months, tops.  Then QE resumes.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:17 | 1235067 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Oh great. Too bad gasoline prices won't change.


Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:33 | 1235177 CPL
CPL's picture

Just wait, we haven't hit the first summer time long weekend yet.  You know how this game works.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:44 | 1235238 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

rumor is, AAPL is working on an iCar that will run on iPads and iPhones.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 15:54 | 1235534 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Hey, here in Belgium we're at 9,75$ a gallon...

sweet defaltion...


Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:27 | 1235068 augie
augie's picture

bearish for prius'


lol i totally deserved that junk.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:32 | 1235085 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

If the markets forced a soon to be withdrawal of liquidity, either for economic and/or political reasons (Obama's 2012 chances of re-election, distress all over the world due to rising food/energy prices, tension with China), the deflation train will run long and hard - longer and harder than many acknowledge.

If not, it's all for naught anyways, because QE administered through POMO injections, alongside nurse ZIRP have done nothing for the organic economy but make things objectively worse, and have now shifted the burden of contraction to government workers (watch and see the tax rebellion grow -Jeetner is waking up to cold, cold reality, right now, because there are some holdouts in Congress who are laughing at his phone calls), along with creating the very kinds of irrational asset class bubbles that have always preceded and then caused (after popping) major economic dislocations, recessions and worse, in the past.

Bernank is a dead duck. He flew too close to the sun with wings made of pastrami. He sevened out. He sharted the bed.

He is a failure of an economist and monetary policy maker.

He's damned if he mounts a campaign (costly and resource intensive) to bring earnest QE back, full scale, and he's damned if he doesn't, but one of those avenues requires less stress, work and allows him to pass the buck to someone else - and I'll let everyone choose which avenue that is.

ZIRP long term was destined to fail as real catalyst to kick start a recovery. Bernanke was an idiot for not understanding this Greenspanonian Lesson In Fail.

But QE via POMO is all of Bernank's doing and his failure to own, forever.

Eat your heart out, Paul Krugman, you Keynesian Punching Bag.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:21 | 1235087 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Why isn't the S&P down 100 if QE is ending?

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:24 | 1235107 uno
uno's picture

I'm watching the feds to see if they are changing the rules on speculators in commodities, the front running is too intense right now to be a CME margin raise.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 22:02 | 1236661 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Simple. The las FOMC statement did not rule out QE3. the presumption is the Bernanke put will not tolerate a drop in equities, hence QE.x is a foregone conclusion. The market has been taught the lesson by the Fed and is reacting exactly as hoped. 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:21 | 1235090 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Oceania has always had quantitative easing.

Buy this fucking dip you fucking proles.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:27 | 1235120 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

"chasing" a dip is much different from "buying" one... be careful here guys. I'm a huge silver bug, but this doesn't seem like it's going to return to its nominal highs just yet.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:27 | 1235140 Blotsky
Blotsky's picture

"Miniplenty" has and will continue to provide.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:37 | 1235191 CPL
CPL's picture

WTI isn't budging.  Still fixed in 26ish after the pop last week to 28.  It's been flat.


Look at the chart.  That's a dip.  Buy that dip.  Shit!  They actually pay dividends on this.  Going to have to eyeball this later.

Wed, 05/04/2011 - 08:25 | 1237471 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

WTI is lower than Brent because of bottlenecks at the Cushing, OK trading hub.

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:19 | 1235095 Al89
Al89's picture

What about the markets pricing in renewed Japanese QE? 

Tue, 05/03/2011 - 14:23 | 1235099 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

what is going on with SLV? Part of me wants to buy this massive dip more at crater and the other part is unsure of the gaping drop goes way the hell down to hell....

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