Crude Plunges

Tyler Durden's picture

Has the time, when the end of QE is ultimately priced in, finally arrived? Following another steep sell off in silver, matched only by the decimation in Chinese stocks, it appears margin calls have finally come to crude, which just plunged by $2 in seconds. And if the answer is yes, is this the expected rotation from the inflationary to deflationary mood which is so very critical for Bernanke to launch his third and final QEasing episode? Expect a major spike in real vol (not VIX) here if we have finally come to the inflection point.

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kengland's picture

Long treasuries and short with SMN as of FRI. I beleive Rosenberg went long, capitulated, last Wed. Eignhorn followed suit.

The top is here

nope-1004's picture

is this the expected rotation from the inflationary to deflationary mood which is so very critical for Bernanke to launch his third and final QEasing episode?


QE^n is coming.  Has to.  No way out, so this 'deflation' is part of the master plan.


j0nx's picture

Careful. Mention the 'D' word around here and watch the hedgers go apeshit.

What does it all mean's picture

This chart is skewed.  CL didn't drop NEARLY as much as Silver!  

ZH, stop lying!  Silver dropped almost 20%, CL went from 114 to 111.

Hephasteus's picture

Didn't know that. I don't think people are even watching it. It's kind of like the royal wedding of things going on in the financial market.

What does it all mean's picture

The chart is overlaying them on scale that is not relevant to the drop.  Very misleading...  Silver is now 40 handle.  I am actually not involved and really just angry at ZH for all the disinformation, people got hurt, and most likely big guys who DONT CARE about margins benefitted.  What a joke.

Sudden Debt's picture

I'm down 46000$ on this drop, but still up 53000$. I don't really care about this drop. I only started to notice it 3 to 4$ ago, and I'm like immune for it.

What does bug me is morons like you turning this site into A YAHOO FINANCE HILL BILLY GROUND!




What does it all mean's picture

You could have kept that 46,000, by selling near 48 and buy it now.  But hey, buy and hope.

BTW, it is just factual that the chart is misleading?  Bloomberg GP function allow you manipulate the charts and that is what this is.  Do you even know what you are talking about?  At a minimum, try google finance chart or if you are truly retail.  

The fact is that this chart is distorted ON purpose!  

Hephasteus's picture

Bullshit. When gold drops they simply stretch the spread to all hell. There is no diving out and getting back in. If you guys would take some losses and not play the gumby over spot game people wouldn't stick to it like super glue. You can't even manipulate people's actions any more. You teach them to get out and stay out. You can't go and pick up any damn silver for 44 bucks right now. You're going to be paying 50 for it just like you were a week ago or you're going to be ordering physical and spending hours trying to pester whoever said they sold it to you to cough it up.

The silvers just fucking gone.

What does it all mean's picture

Huh, you are talking about the physical market.  (bid/ask spread wide enough to drive a truck through.)  I am talking about the SI future market, which is what spot is based on. And where the margin was recently raised for the third time.  

So, you are clearly wrong and naive.   Sell high and buy low clearly goes counter to your believe system.  

I guess you like to buy high, buy low, buy lower, and buy lowest... 

Good luck.


earnyermoney's picture

You should direct your anger at the fascists running this country. Disinformation? People getting hurt? Not one fascists employee of a TBTF bank or their fascist enablers within the federal govenment have been indicted for rampant financial fraud.

What does it all mean's picture

Don't get me wrong.  I am upset with the govt, banks, Timmy G, Ben... and just about everybody but my friends and family.  But call a spade a spade...  Just be fair!

Ahmeexnal's picture

Great time to buy physical PM's at great discount.

Silver at 40, than you JPMoron!!

Let the bankers play with they later turn to paupers!

And the USD is plunging next to the soaring CHF:

Can you hear the Austrian banks go *KA-BOOM*?



goldfish1's picture

Silver top 48.55



What does it all mean's picture

???  LMAO.

You are clearly retail... SLV doesn't count!

SI Future was at 49.79, now 40.85.  Get the pricing data right! (Both April/May/June are trading tight.)  

Come on, at least the physical folk has some point, they can take that metal and swallow it when the mobs come.  SLV, is totally fraudulent!

Id fight Gandhi's picture

the Only reason for silver to fall down is an unprecedented three margin hikes in a week on varying global holidays too. If it really were a major issue, gold would have sold off too. It didnt.

What does it all mean's picture

Which is part of the game.  Exchange change margins.

Burnbright's picture

I dont think it really counts, they hit those number in asia over night when every market was closed. Price was between 48-49 as the high.

dark pools of soros's picture

I was able to sell some bars locally @ $48 last week..  he doesn't gouge either way so might be able to grab them back this week for a decent gain



What does it all mean's picture

NO!  learn your micro market sturcture.  SI future was trading in NY hours.  SLV is ETF and doesn't trade until 4am to 8pm.  

SI was entirely tradeable!  Even at the lower margin (pre the three reductions.)

Come on, if you are in this, you should know that the CME routinely raise margins... which is what a lot of ppl on this blog was saying.  Bubble was going to burst... you just didn't listen...



SheepDog-One's picture

If 'deflation' is oil at $111, we're fuked.

Pepe's picture

master manipu-flation

Gubbmint Cheese's picture

Rosie didn't go "long" - but acknowledged it could go higher.

Big Diff.

kengland's picture


Well, he didn't say he was buying but the implication in his statement is that he understands why folks would. Either way, that is capitulation from the ober bear.

Gubbmint Cheese's picture

apparently you haven't read Rosie's stuff. Long utilities, long bonds (of all durations, but was eyeing longer maturities back in April 2010), long gold/silver..

so the advice has been just fine.

Hugh G Rection's picture

This just in....


Peace breaks out in MENA region, 0bama announces new liberal domestic drilling policy, and Federal Reserve announces they will raise interest rates to instill confidence in the dollar.



6 String's picture

No QE3 for a bit means short everything, included in this is everything, EVERYthing, in Tepper's portfolio.

Remember, it is only the QE's that has brought everything up. The reverse will be true.


Boston's picture

Long treasuries

Exactly.  And well after the deflation sets in (this is just the beginning), look for hints from Bernanke that the withdrawl of QE is the "cause" of all this turmoil.  Look for confirmation pieces from Hilsenrath in the WSJ.  And then wait for the big QE3 speech from Ben.

Then exit Treasury longs and wait for technical confirmation to short....big time.




101 years and counting's picture

tbtf just got the api and eia inventory reports.

Ancona's picture

QE can't end. Period.

This "recovery" is anything but organic. When the fed removes the extra liquidity, the run on hte markets will begin, and we can't have that now can we?

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Exactly, if it does end, it resets back to the purpose it was first created for. The system is a monster that has built itself to a point were if you stop feeding it, it will collapse. Worse still, no one has a clue how the system works.

Holodomor2012's picture

It actually reached that point the moment they issued their first FRN at interest.  Principle in circulation will always be less than the principle plus interest owed back. 

P < P + I

Dr. No's picture

The FED mission of recovery is secondary to there misson of backstopping the biggest banks.  You are mistaken if you think the FEDs actions are to maintain a recovery.  They will try to engineer a recovery if it is in the best interest of the big banks.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

The Bernank will let everything collapse enough until all the critics STFU about QE.  It'll take a month, two months, tops.  Then QE resumes.

tekhneek's picture

Oh great. Too bad gasoline prices won't change.


CPL's picture

Just wait, we haven't hit the first summer time long weekend yet.  You know how this game works.

101 years and counting's picture

rumor is, AAPL is working on an iCar that will run on iPads and iPhones.

Sudden Debt's picture

Hey, here in Belgium we're at 9,75$ a gallon...

sweet defaltion...


augie's picture

bearish for prius'


lol i totally deserved that junk.

TruthInSunshine's picture

If the markets forced a soon to be withdrawal of liquidity, either for economic and/or political reasons (Obama's 2012 chances of re-election, distress all over the world due to rising food/energy prices, tension with China), the deflation train will run long and hard - longer and harder than many acknowledge.

If not, it's all for naught anyways, because QE administered through POMO injections, alongside nurse ZIRP have done nothing for the organic economy but make things objectively worse, and have now shifted the burden of contraction to government workers (watch and see the tax rebellion grow -Jeetner is waking up to cold, cold reality, right now, because there are some holdouts in Congress who are laughing at his phone calls), along with creating the very kinds of irrational asset class bubbles that have always preceded and then caused (after popping) major economic dislocations, recessions and worse, in the past.

Bernank is a dead duck. He flew too close to the sun with wings made of pastrami. He sevened out. He sharted the bed.

He is a failure of an economist and monetary policy maker.

He's damned if he mounts a campaign (costly and resource intensive) to bring earnest QE back, full scale, and he's damned if he doesn't, but one of those avenues requires less stress, work and allows him to pass the buck to someone else - and I'll let everyone choose which avenue that is.

ZIRP long term was destined to fail as real catalyst to kick start a recovery. Bernanke was an idiot for not understanding this Greenspanonian Lesson In Fail.

But QE via POMO is all of Bernank's doing and his failure to own, forever.

Eat your heart out, Paul Krugman, you Keynesian Punching Bag.

spartan117's picture

Why isn't the S&P down 100 if QE is ending?

uno's picture

I'm watching the feds to see if they are changing the rules on speculators in commodities, the front running is too intense right now to be a CME margin raise.

Ned Zeppelin's picture

Simple. The las FOMC statement did not rule out QE3. the presumption is the Bernanke put will not tolerate a drop in equities, hence QE.x is a foregone conclusion. The market has been taught the lesson by the Fed and is reacting exactly as hoped. 

hedgeless_horseman's picture

Oceania has always had quantitative easing.

Buy this fucking dip you fucking proles.

tekhneek's picture

"chasing" a dip is much different from "buying" one... be careful here guys. I'm a huge silver bug, but this doesn't seem like it's going to return to its nominal highs just yet.

Blotsky's picture

"Miniplenty" has and will continue to provide.

CPL's picture

WTI isn't budging.  Still fixed in 26ish after the pop last week to 28.  It's been flat.


Look at the chart.  That's a dip.  Buy that dip.  Shit!  They actually pay dividends on this.  Going to have to eyeball this later.

SoNH80's picture

WTI is lower than Brent because of bottlenecks at the Cushing, OK trading hub.

Al89's picture

What about the markets pricing in renewed Japanese QE? 

vast-dom's picture

what is going on with SLV? Part of me wants to buy this massive dip more at crater and the other part is unsure of the gaping drop goes way the hell down to hell....