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Cumulative TICK Confirms Market In Far Worse Shape Than Even Broad Index Will Have You Believe

Tyler Durden's picture





 

A comparison of the intraday cumulative TICK and the S&P 500 indicates that even with repeated stick saves of the S&P around 1,125, the behind the scenes truth is that the selling is actually persistently ongoing and in fact intensifying throughout the day. Cumulative TICK is now at day lows after rolling over without slowing, particularly during times when the index allegedly bounced as the PPT, algos, or Central Bank buyers of currencies stepped in to prevent a May 6-like rout. Our advice, as always, is to stay away from this broken casino, as we are confident that the reality of the market is about to catch up with the market value indicators.

h/t Credit Trader

 


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Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:47 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Overheard from Timmy Geithner's office: 

"Bulletproof, I die harder than Bruce Willis.
Got my crew in effect, I bought 'em new Jags,
So much cash, gotta keep it in Hefty bags.
All I think about is keys and Gs
Imagine that, me workin at Mickey D's (ha ha ha ha).
That's a joke cause I'm never gonna be broke,
When I die there'll be bullets and gunsmoke.
Ya don't like my lifestyle? F___ you!
I'm rollin with the New Jack crew.
And I'm a hustler."

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:49 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

what is "cumulative tick"

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Found this definition on the internet:“The TICK is displayed by most real-time quote vendors as $TICK, and it measures the number of NYSE issues trading on upticks vs. the number trading on downticks. This is sometimes described by technicians as an overbought/oversold index, but that is misleading. It is better to think of the TICK as a sentiment measure, because it is assessing the willingness of market participants to facilitate trade either at the offer price (meaning that buyers are willing to pay up to own the stock) or at the bid (suggesting that sellers will give up the edge to get out of the market). By tracking where the TICK is trading relative to its mean value (what I call the Adjusted TICK), you have a nice measure of whether bulls or bears are more aggressive in the marketplace…”His reference to the TICK as a ’sentiment’ measure is very unique, and I believe shows a great deal of understanding. It’s for this reason that we were eager to replicate his ‘adjusted TICK’. As Brett discusses in this mid-April blog post, “The Adjusted TICK subtracts from each one-minute TICK reading the average TICK value over the prior 20 trading sessions and then cumulates the resulting values into a single end-of-day index. This index tells us if traders are more or less inclined to buying or selling relative to the recent past.”

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:38 | Link to Comment pinkboxtrader
pinkboxtrader's picture

sum of NYSE TICK readings since the start of the session. i use sum((High + Low) / 2) on 1-minute TICK samples. TICK itself is annoying to read - cumulative TICK gives a better idea of how the breadth is moving throughout the day.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:53 | Link to Comment Simon Jester
Simon Jester's picture

So much fun to watch from the sidelines...especially fun watching all the usually glib and upbeat snake oil salesmen desparately trying to change their tune to salvage their "reputations"...

 

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:08 | Link to Comment Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

It is even more beautiful watching it while you are short ;-)

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

So true :)

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:39 | Link to Comment sushi
sushi's picture

Mmmmmmm

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:50 | Link to Comment Myshkin
Myshkin's picture

+1

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 00:47 | Link to Comment Rick64
Rick64's picture

Fucking great day. It was good to be short.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:59 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OMG Simon Jester have you heard Charles Bidderman of 'TrimTabs' this week? He's firmly screwed on his 'Bull Horn Viking Hat' after only a couple months ago saying 'its all fake, the whole market rise from DOW 6,500, simply the FED buying futures overnite'. Now he's doing the bulldance all week, saying everything is 'looking up', employment, tax receipts, consumer spending', all of it. The biggest baseless reversal in the face of a collapsing market Ive seen yet! Did he actually short his clients, if he has any?

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:17 | Link to Comment Takingbets
Takingbets's picture

That is shocking, do you have a link to share on this?

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 20:07 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

On youtube you can see all his recent media interview his channel is 'TrimTabs'

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 19:17 | Link to Comment spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

That's unfortunate.

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 01:07 | Link to Comment bulldung
bulldung's picture

It would be interesting to see the data that changed his sentiment as he seems to be a data based decision maker.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:51 | Link to Comment duo
duo's picture

a bloodsucking arthropod?

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:07 | Link to Comment Duuude
Duuude's picture

3'rd Bellysnort of tha day!

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:53 | Link to Comment chancee
chancee's picture

That's because the futures and SPY are the most manipulated instruments out there.  All you have to do is watch a 500 TICK chart of SPY and follow it on Time and Sales and watch how every time SPY gets ready to plunge through any kind of meaningful support a barrage of bids come in ABOVE the ask.  This triggers a thousand other algos to jump in and bid  SPY up... and then that triggers a thousand more algos across the market to pull other stocks up.  Joke.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Thalamus
Thalamus's picture

Manipulating futures would give a lot more leverage than buying stocks directly--letting arbitrage bring the stocks up.  I think GS and BO are trying to turn off the PPT faucet slowly and have found the water pressure is quite strong with 11,000 Dow points behind it.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:55 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

Abby Joseph Cohen just said yesterday on cnbs that the s&p is going up to 1250.  Who is crazy enough to fade her.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 17:18 | Link to Comment Mark Beck
Mark Beck's picture

The close today was 1135.68, so going to 1250 is only +10%. Anything can happen, but sustained moves in equities will take increasingly larger and larger amounts of liquidity. Liquidity effects on equities through CY2010 so far, seem to be of diminishing returns. That is, non-linear and becoming more so. The FED really needs congress to act on some crisis in order to get the needed leverage to provide support for another 12 months.

The most plausible, is to bail out the states through some type of legislation called ARRA 2 or State Mega Aid or for California, Uber Aid.

Fiscally, is California a girly state? Quick run for the choppa.

Mark Beck

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:56 | Link to Comment VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

Best tags of the day. "reality"  hahahaha

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:57 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Preservation of credibility has become more important than preservation of cash...

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:39 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

There is no cash.

Preserving credibility is now all that stands between the global economy and Feudalism.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 14:59 | Link to Comment chancee
chancee's picture

Flash Crash 2 -- Coming Soon to a theater near you.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:05 | Link to Comment johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

If we roll out today below 1125 and volume is over 1.6 billion then the fan will reek on Monday.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Simon Jester
Simon Jester's picture

What, no Lehman Sundae?

With another $1T fiatsco hot cherry bendover flavored topping?

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Joe Sixpack
Joe Sixpack's picture

Sorry, Bernanke and crew already popped the cherry in 2008.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:12 | Link to Comment GS is short Gold
GS is short Gold's picture

where's Wanger? on vacation again?

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:14 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

He must be gearing up to buy in advance of the guaranteed Monday rally.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:21 | Link to Comment Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

He must be catching falling knives all over the place

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Simon Jester
Simon Jester's picture

psyops was sent home early for a nice long recuperative wknd...They'll need a 110%  effort on monday...

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:41 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Hey. Now you've gone and blown his cover. And this was supposed to be gentleman's game.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:13 | Link to Comment Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I would guess that it will shitcan after 3:30

S&P ends up at 1116

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

50 - 50 I'd say.  There'll probably be plenty of people (Harry Wanger, that would be you) who'll think they can count on the Monday uptick and will buy into the close.  Either way, anybody going into the weekend long is going to wish they kept their money in their pockets on Monday and Tuesday.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Longs over the weekend will need a lot of sleeping pills :-)

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:20 | Link to Comment Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

No more mutual fund Monday and Tuesday?  I'm sure gonna miss them.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:28 | Link to Comment -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

ya... way to many trends and supports broken in everything I can chart for a good start of next week...

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:16 | Link to Comment Rob Deep
Rob Deep's picture

I like your style, Turd.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:11 | Link to Comment crosey
crosey's picture

Well, we ended up higher than 1116, but being long into the weekend in this market is a sure-fire means to vastly increase personal stress and anxiety.  Anything can, and does, happen.  No more smoke-a the hopium.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:23 | Link to Comment DrFever
DrFever's picture

"stay away from this broken casino, as we are confident that the reality of the market is about to catch up with the market value indicators"

I will argue that the reality of the market is now upon us and as with most bubbles, the pop is going to carry more weight and speed than the blowing did.  What we saw after the reality check last week was that sellers wanted out.  Sure....there was a relief rally but go back and check all major multi day crashes.....there is one big drop that starts it, a modest attempt at a relief rally and then kaboom.....the last 4 days have been your chance to sell while you could because I don't think we will see Dow 11,000 for quite a few years now.   We are witnessing a crash people.....we don't need a 1,000 point drop in a day to have a crash but a series fo down 100-200 days over a prolonged period will be a more tolerable crash but a crash nonetheless.  But, given the card games that have helped facilitate this move to 11,200 on the dow for example, this time, the market is going to come back to real valuations much faster .... fat finger days will come with more frequency.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:03 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

To pop this Bubble you have to close the Fed Window... and unplug all the servers... niether is going to happen.

Is the market a lie, abso-fucking-lutely!

But there is no stopping it, not bad news.. not reality... NOTHING! has stopped its inchward march North.

Too be clear I don't like living a lie, but the alternative of living without the lights being on for 90% of the populace and needless suffering be rampant... fuck it, I will stick with the Red Pill. This would be to maintain a minimum Quality of Life for the majority, it is not a vote for the the Fraud as most would surely spin it too be.

Who will suffer the most in a Marshall Law State? Not me Bitches I will be in the Bahamas, with generator power and fire power. So, 12 months after Marshall Law is inacted and the food shortages have thinned the herd.. I will come back to help re-build...

Just kidding the FED has lots of paper left yet to print!

But everyone hoping for the end better have lots of ammo, not Gold! unless you are going to use a sling shot and gold coins to hold back the angry mob.

How many times before has the FED printed the United States out of trouble before?

Austerity measures in Germany = A FED Swap Window, which ='s The FED owns Europe thru the exchange rate's alone... going forward.

So, the FED has plenty of paper to yet print, a history of printing and keeping the ship up right... and if the lights go out people will wish the FED had been able to keep it together...

OR!!!!!! you are part of the Rapture Crowd and praying for the end becuase you are tiered of you fat ugly wife and stupid kids? 

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 15:59 | Link to Comment RockyR
RockyR's picture

gold anyone? what happened to gold?

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:04 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Is it just me or when people are jumping up and down screaming rally.... isn't there supposed to be some UPWARD! Movement?

 

How about just a lil bit of UPWARD! Movement?

 

No UPWARD! Movement and in fact DOWNWARD! Movement is not a rally! Well, unless you are a Gold Bug!

 

I read... "Stupid is, as Stupid Does!"

 

Hurry... Limited time only!!!

 

Buy into the Gold Bubble... 

 

But hurry! Before prices dip any lower!

 

Don't be left out!

 

Don't be one of those who Bought Low to sell High!!!

 

The End is Near... We are waiting on your call... 1 (800) You-Idiot or 1 (800) Gold-Bug

 

Republicans, Evangelicals and Sheepeople get here fast!

 

Before...

 

The Uni-Bombers, Rapture Crowd and / or other idiots steals your top spot!

Remember Gold will not be at all time highs forever! Hurry and buy at the top!

 

For a limited time only we will offer You! For! Free!!! a “How to scare your friends and family into buying Physical Gold!” kit, as taught by an out of work used car salesman! A $5.00 value for free!!!

 

Remember that the End is Near!

 

Don’t get caught Buying Low to sell High!!!

 

Ignore the 30 year charts at all costs? http://goldprice.org/30-year-gold-price-history.html

Sun, 05/16/2010 - 09:35 | Link to Comment Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I'm a stupid asshole with a severe inability to shut the fuck up.

 

I take tons of space to make my bullshit more attention demanding.

 

I don't care if people want to bash my skull in like an empty eggshell.

 

I'm going to ramble my stupid shit over and over and over becuase I'm too fucking to stupid

 

to get on twitter or facebook and be with my kind who also suffers a huge inability

 

to shut the fuck up.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:13 | Link to Comment omi
omi's picture

Just look at $DJSH, that was telling a great picture by itself - hot money is fleeing.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 16:48 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

All as can, are getting out. The final price is manipulated, and matters nothing. The only ones buying have no choice, or have money to burn. Somewhere down the road dead people will still be holding stock at those prices. Nobody will be trading because the the very concept of investing will have flown.

The latest print will then be as useless as a discarded orange rind. All that money invested will have simply burned.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

EPIC COLLAPSE

There goes the 4th of July BBQ with the Jones'

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 18:17 | Link to Comment Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

What instruments do you use to short the market?  ETF's? bear funds? spx puts?

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 20:23 | Link to Comment islander
islander's picture

The shit still hasn't hit the fan. China, news to come shortly. You better be lean, by the fall or you can kiss your material possessions good bye.

Fri, 05/14/2010 - 22:01 | Link to Comment Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

OK, you've got our attention now.

Care to elaborate?  China?  Be lean?  Fall?  Black Swan event?

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 02:29 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

 

The March 2009 bear market rally ended last week. 

http://tinyurl.com/39ptoac
 
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1

Sat, 05/15/2010 - 18:27 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

if you follow prior patterns, we have bottomed, come up, dropped again (not a lower low) and then raced up. of course we dropped a big below trned to hit the sell orders, then the hook save the last 1/2. so we should open monday with bounce along trend line with higher finish at days end, or small loss.

this is also wahat has been happening if you look at macd indicators. we go down, move up a bit too fast, little break back down to real up move. not saying it will or should happen, just been the pattern. the first drop after the low has been a very good entry position

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