At The Current Rate Of Growth, The S&P 500 Will Surpass Its All Time High On June 27, 2011

Tyler Durden's picture

Since it is obvious that Bernanke is now taking his central planning tips from Laszlo "Let Me Just Whip Out My Ruler" Birinyi, and is dead set on growing the market in basically a flat line (there has been no volatility in stocks in the past 6 months - none), we decided to extrapolate the market based on the Woods Hole event, and determine when stocks will take out the all time previous closing high of 1,565.15 from October 10, 2007. In a nutshell: at the rate of ascent demonstrated since the confirmation of QE2, the S&P will pass its all time high in 96 working days, and will hit a fresh all time high on June 27, 2011 (roughly at the time housing will be about 40% down from its all time highs, and real unemployment adjusted for labor farce [sic] participation is 13% and real U-6 is 23%). Put that date in your calendar. Presumably at that point Bernanke will concede that he has created enough of a "wealth effect." Although since by then we will have started QE3 for about a month, we may well surpass Zimbabwe's daily average stock market gains 250% of at some point in Q3, and put von Havenstein's "wealth effect economic miracle" to shame in Q4.

Some other observations:

In case the Chairsatan does not think that a new all time high is sufficiently manipulated and decided to keep pumping the market at the same rate of growth, one year from today, the S&P will be at 1968,79, in two years it will be at 2,610.44, and in three years it won't matter as a loaf of bread will cost a few quadrillion dollars.

Next up, we will extrapolate the cost of wheat, corn, rice, cotton. To cut the suspense, we expect a 100% growth in 2 months, a 1,000% growth in 6, and it goes exponential from there.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
hambone's picture

From March '09 bottom

Dow - up 90% ...13% from all time peak

S&P 500 - up 99% ...15% from all time peak

Nasdaq - up 121% ...44% from all time peak

Russell 2000 - up 133% ...4% from all time peak

A Wanger appearance of why this makes sense would be great now.

alien-IQ's picture

The market is a reflection of the wealth of the top 10% of the nation (world?). Since the essential element required for the existence of great wealth is great poverty...it almost makes perfect sense that the market would continue to rise along with unemployment, food stamps and foreclosures. the poorer the bottom 90% get, the richer the top 10% get. money is never lost, merely transferred. In this case...it's being transferred from the bottom 90% to the top 10%...in other words: business as usual.

This post was sponsored by The Glenlivet. Fine Single Malt Scotch....Accept no substitutes.

Blankman's picture

I prefer Glenmorangie - Nectar D'Or

Don Birnam's picture

None of that twelve years aged-in-the-wood chichi for me. Brand ? You know what brand -- the cheap stuff !

http://media.nj.com/stephen_whitty_on_movies/photo/9112332-large.jpg

topcallingtroll's picture

Famous Grouse.....the national drink of scotland.....the single malt shit is for rich furiners. Cheap and high quality.....well.....high enough.

Dick Darlington's picture

Long live free markets! Or something...

hedgeless_horseman's picture

The reality of extrapolation...

Male Doctor:  How often do you have sex?

Male Patient: Once, I almost had sex twice in one day.

Male Doctor:  So about 730 times per year?

Male Patient:  That must be about right.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

the REALity of sextrapulation:

2 over-the-hill niggaz wer trying to have a child, but nothing semed 2 work.  so, they decided to go see their doc-tors.  later, thet evening, when they were home, together, they discussed their visits and examinations.

sapphire sez:  my doc-tor aksd me what my flo wuz like, an i sed, "Why, linoleum."

the kingfisher sez:  i aksd my doc-tor if dey wuz any problem wit me, and he told me i wuz impotant!

yo! otis! m' man!  YouTube - Doug Clark & the Hot Nuts "Baby Let Me Bang Your Box Pt. 1"

g8r!!!

jus_lite_reading's picture

BULLSHIT!

Each day these fake markets go higher based on utter and complete bullshit, I buy more 1x100's silver. I have no plans to buy ANYTHING else. Reduce reuse recycle.

unwashedmass's picture

 

i'm with you there. took the last of my money out of the market today and gonna buy some silver bars this weekend.

this is now officially terrifying. Zimbabwe here we come.

Sudden Debt's picture

I'm following you 100% and I'm even making money with it :)

I buy in the US, sell in Europe with a 25% premium and buy again, especially buy the stuff you can't buy in Europe and sell those.

And I sell about 200 ounces a month and buy back about 240 ounces a month.

This way, my silver stash rises pretty nice without any real cost besides about 8 hours a month work on it.

 

D1eeeeeNAHHHHH's picture

Hi Sudden Debt,

I just joined ZH.  I love your commentary and insight.  Keep up the good thoughts!

I just got involved with silver and would love to know how to sell to Europe.

Could you tell me who I can sell to in Europe and a safe way to get paid when or before I send silver? 

Thanks a lot!

SheepDog-One's picture

Yep I dont buy it 1 bit either, I dont care if the projection is S&P to 5,000 by next Friday. They can suck it Im buying up all the silver I can, let the lunatics play with their stocks all they like, I'm betting it will be the rug suddenly pulled out one of these mornings and nothing any stock holder can do about it. Elites win, retail scrubs will hold the bag.

Matt's picture

I'd be with you on this, except I still need to buy food, electricity and clothing. too bad there is no easy way to stockpile electricity ...

6 String's picture

S + P 500, the risk free asset.

jobs1234's picture

The Nasdaq is 50 points away from its 2007 peak, I wouldnt even use the year 2000 peak. I would assume the Russell 2000 '07 high would be some form of resistance for Sack.

hambone's picture

C'mon - Sack needs a real challenge and recouping that '00 Nas high would be a real resume builder!

jobs1234's picture

The best part is that I cant find a single person who is actually BUYING at these levels.

Not many people are selling, but no buyers.

Who exactly do the IB's plan to sell this inventory to?

SteveNYC's picture

Ben S. Bernanke on behalf of US taxpayers.

SheepDog-One's picture

What taxpayer? Walmart part time employees make enough to cover the largest transfer of wealth in world history?

buzzsaw99's picture

Fannie Mae. It worked with everything else.

uno's picture

I'm sure it's the usual scam, get the general public 401k money to distribute to.  Of course there is a lot less of it now, but that is always their scam, headlines every night about dow high to get the greed gene going.

monkeyfaction's picture

Taking the last proper dip to be the start of July last year, we have moved from around 1020 on the S&P 500 to 1330 in less than 7 months.

The last time we moved from 1022 to 1330 it took 3 years and that was when the economy was supposed to be amazing and people had jobs. It feels so wrong.

Dapper Dan's picture

And If we now know it was wrong and an aberration back then, what does it tell us now?

redarrow's picture

There will be no QE3, the Fed runs a severe risk of losing control over the yield curve. I think the Chairman knows this.

Bernanke's lips are already quivering explaining the position of the Fed, more monetary easing with no effect on employment will make the Chairman stutter like Hank Paulson.

plocequ1's picture

The yield curve is so fucking 80s. It has been replaced by the NFLX curve.

buzzsaw99's picture

There will be no QE3, the Fed runs a severe risk of losing control over the yield curve.

ChairStain would argue the opposite.

Dapper Dan's picture

 In the Bernanke's most recent video his hands are shaking quite noticeably.

 

whatsinaname's picture

why no qe3 ? it looks like they are able to now control price if crude, metals and food ?

unwashedmass's picture

 

You know what's fascinating -- none of the QE has hit the metals stocks. In fact, if you watch the action there it is more than apparent that the "invisible hand of Bennie Boy" is actively involved in trying to ram the sector down. IT is the ONLY sector actually trading and displaying any volatility.

Coincidence? You be the judge.

hambone's picture

Great point - look at the areas of volatility / FX, Commodities...almost like there is effort to create real risk in these sectors vs. riskless equities.

6 String's picture

Yup, precious metals are evil. S + P 500 is the risk free asset: "Don't fight fed," the banking cartels, or the asset management monkeys. they will destroy you. 

hambone's picture

Mr. String - I think there is a good chance they will actually destroy me (and some of my earthly friends) whether I fight them or not!

downrodeo's picture

exactly right. when we fear them, they own us.

 

They own us anyway, but losing one's fear is the first step in breaking one's chains.

6 String's picture

Of course, you are right hambone. My tongue was firmly planted in cheek. When the S + P 500 goes up 190% on monday one day, 241% on Tuesay like Zimbabwe, it will be meaningless destruction as 100,00,000 million dollar notes have a hard time getting a hold of 12 eggs.

This uptick is seen as good--it is not. It is not natural and it will not end well.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

 

Hahaha.  yer tongue my ass, fishook.  +xxx

NOTW777's picture

IWM poking above jul 07 hi

hannah's picture

i have a $1000 bet we beat all time highs on the s&p500 before we collapse....i should have bet $10,000.

Internet Tough Guy's picture

What will you do with all that worthless money, burn it?

downrodeo's picture

that's fucking brilliant!

Nobody would expect you to pay up after the collapse. whoever took that bet is a CNBC grade moron!

hannah's picture

...can you imagine the crowing on CNBC when we pass all time highs.....!

jobs1234's picture

I sense even the CNBC guys/gals know this is weird. The floor traders cant figure out why we dont ever correct or get any volatility one way or the other.

Revolution_starts_now's picture

Yep should be a great 15 minutes just before the market turns and heads back to all time new lows.

blind squirrel's picture

the trend is your friend... until it isn't.

cougar_w's picture

Any trend is your friend. Doesn't matter if it is a trend upwards or downwards. The only trend that isn't much use is a flat line. Which you will notice they are avoiding.

Think of the market right now as a swing in a playground. To play it, you have to get it moving and to really play it you have to pump it into each rotation. Doesn't matter if it is swinging forward or backwards, climbing or falling. The game is in the motion and you play with the motion.

A swing that doesn't oscillate is not a good toy.

A market that does not oscillate is not making anyone any money.

Gubbmint Cheese's picture

why stop at 1,565?

Christ.. just keep it rolling and aim for 5,000

alien-IQ's picture

time to load up on SPY $500 leaps?