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At The Current Rate Of Growth, The S&P 500 Will Surpass Its All Time High On June 27, 2011
Since it is obvious that Bernanke is now taking his central planning tips from Laszlo "Let Me Just Whip Out My Ruler" Birinyi, and is dead set on growing the market in basically a flat line (there has been no volatility in stocks in the past 6 months - none), we decided to extrapolate the market based on the Woods Hole event, and determine when stocks will take out the all time previous closing high of 1,565.15 from October 10, 2007. In a nutshell: at the rate of ascent demonstrated since the confirmation of QE2, the S&P will pass its all time high in 96 working days, and will hit a fresh all time high on June 27, 2011 (roughly at the time housing will be about 40% down from its all time highs, and real unemployment adjusted for labor farce [sic] participation is 13% and real U-6 is 23%). Put that date in your calendar. Presumably at that point Bernanke will concede that he has created enough of a "wealth effect." Although since by then we will have started QE3 for about a month, we may well surpass Zimbabwe's daily average stock market gains 250% of at some point in Q3, and put von Havenstein's "wealth effect economic miracle" to shame in Q4.
Some other observations:
In case the Chairsatan does not think that a new all time high is sufficiently manipulated and decided to keep pumping the market at the same rate of growth, one year from today, the S&P will be at 1968,79, in two years it will be at 2,610.44, and in three years it won't matter as a loaf of bread will cost a few quadrillion dollars.
Next up, we will extrapolate the cost of wheat, corn, rice, cotton. To cut the suspense, we expect a 100% growth in 2 months, a 1,000% growth in 6, and it goes exponential from there.
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From March '09 bottom
Dow - up 90% ...13% from all time peak
S&P 500 - up 99% ...15% from all time peak
Nasdaq - up 121% ...44% from all time peak
Russell 2000 - up 133% ...4% from all time peak
A Wanger appearance of why this makes sense would be great now.
The market is a reflection of the wealth of the top 10% of the nation (world?). Since the essential element required for the existence of great wealth is great poverty...it almost makes perfect sense that the market would continue to rise along with unemployment, food stamps and foreclosures. the poorer the bottom 90% get, the richer the top 10% get. money is never lost, merely transferred. In this case...it's being transferred from the bottom 90% to the top 10%...in other words: business as usual.
This post was sponsored by The Glenlivet. Fine Single Malt Scotch....Accept no substitutes.
I prefer Glenmorangie - Nectar D'Or
None of that twelve years aged-in-the-wood chichi for me. Brand ? You know what brand -- the cheap stuff !
http://media.nj.com/stephen_whitty_on_movies/photo/9112332-large.jpg
Famous Grouse.....the national drink of scotland.....the single malt shit is for rich furiners. Cheap and high quality.....well.....high enough.
Long live free markets! Or something...
The reality of extrapolation...
Male Doctor: How often do you have sex?
Male Patient: Once, I almost had sex twice in one day.
Male Doctor: So about 730 times per year?
Male Patient: That must be about right.
the REALity of sextrapulation:
2 over-the-hill niggaz wer trying to have a child, but nothing semed 2 work. so, they decided to go see their doc-tors. later, thet evening, when they were home, together, they discussed their visits and examinations.
sapphire sez: my doc-tor aksd me what my flo wuz like, an i sed, "Why, linoleum."
the kingfisher sez: i aksd my doc-tor if dey wuz any problem wit me, and he told me i wuz impotant!
yo! otis! m' man! YouTube - Doug Clark & the Hot Nuts "Baby Let Me Bang Your Box Pt. 1"
g8r!!!
BULLSHIT!
Each day these fake markets go higher based on utter and complete bullshit, I buy more 1x100's silver. I have no plans to buy ANYTHING else. Reduce reuse recycle.
i'm with you there. took the last of my money out of the market today and gonna buy some silver bars this weekend.
this is now officially terrifying. Zimbabwe here we come.
I'm following you 100% and I'm even making money with it :)
I buy in the US, sell in Europe with a 25% premium and buy again, especially buy the stuff you can't buy in Europe and sell those.
And I sell about 200 ounces a month and buy back about 240 ounces a month.
This way, my silver stash rises pretty nice without any real cost besides about 8 hours a month work on it.
Hi Sudden Debt,
I just joined ZH. I love your commentary and insight. Keep up the good thoughts!
I just got involved with silver and would love to know how to sell to Europe.
Could you tell me who I can sell to in Europe and a safe way to get paid when or before I send silver?
Thanks a lot!
Yep I dont buy it 1 bit either, I dont care if the projection is S&P to 5,000 by next Friday. They can suck it Im buying up all the silver I can, let the lunatics play with their stocks all they like, I'm betting it will be the rug suddenly pulled out one of these mornings and nothing any stock holder can do about it. Elites win, retail scrubs will hold the bag.
I'd be with you on this, except I still need to buy food, electricity and clothing. too bad there is no easy way to stockpile electricity ...
S + P 500, the risk free asset.
The CBOE disagrees.
The Nasdaq is 50 points away from its 2007 peak, I wouldnt even use the year 2000 peak. I would assume the Russell 2000 '07 high would be some form of resistance for Sack.
C'mon - Sack needs a real challenge and recouping that '00 Nas high would be a real resume builder!
The best part is that I cant find a single person who is actually BUYING at these levels.
Not many people are selling, but no buyers.
Who exactly do the IB's plan to sell this inventory to?
Ben S. Bernanke on behalf of US taxpayers.
What taxpayer? Walmart part time employees make enough to cover the largest transfer of wealth in world history?
Just add printing......
Fannie Mae. It worked with everything else.
I'm sure it's the usual scam, get the general public 401k money to distribute to. Of course there is a lot less of it now, but that is always their scam, headlines every night about dow high to get the greed gene going.
Taking the last proper dip to be the start of July last year, we have moved from around 1020 on the S&P 500 to 1330 in less than 7 months.
The last time we moved from 1022 to 1330 it took 3 years and that was when the economy was supposed to be amazing and people had jobs. It feels so wrong.
And If we now know it was wrong and an aberration back then, what does it tell us now?
There will be no QE3, the Fed runs a severe risk of losing control over the yield curve. I think the Chairman knows this.
Bernanke's lips are already quivering explaining the position of the Fed, more monetary easing with no effect on employment will make the Chairman stutter like Hank Paulson.
The yield curve is so fucking 80s. It has been replaced by the NFLX curve.
There will be no QE3, the Fed runs a severe risk of losing control over the yield curve.
ChairStain would argue the opposite.
In the Bernanke's most recent video his hands are shaking quite noticeably.
why no qe3 ? it looks like they are able to now control price if crude, metals and food ?
You know what's fascinating -- none of the QE has hit the metals stocks. In fact, if you watch the action there it is more than apparent that the "invisible hand of Bennie Boy" is actively involved in trying to ram the sector down. IT is the ONLY sector actually trading and displaying any volatility.
Coincidence? You be the judge.
Great point - look at the areas of volatility / FX, Commodities...almost like there is effort to create real risk in these sectors vs. riskless equities.
Yup, precious metals are evil. S + P 500 is the risk free asset: "Don't fight fed," the banking cartels, or the asset management monkeys. they will destroy you.
Mr. String - I think there is a good chance they will actually destroy me (and some of my earthly friends) whether I fight them or not!
exactly right. when we fear them, they own us.
They own us anyway, but losing one's fear is the first step in breaking one's chains.
Of course, you are right hambone. My tongue was firmly planted in cheek. When the S + P 500 goes up 190% on monday one day, 241% on Tuesay like Zimbabwe, it will be meaningless destruction as 100,00,000 million dollar notes have a hard time getting a hold of 12 eggs.
This uptick is seen as good--it is not. It is not natural and it will not end well.
Hahaha. yer tongue my ass, fishook. +xxx
IWM poking above jul 07 hi
i have a $1000 bet we beat all time highs on the s&p500 before we collapse....i should have bet $10,000.
What will you do with all that worthless money, burn it?
that's fucking brilliant!
Nobody would expect you to pay up after the collapse. whoever took that bet is a CNBC grade moron!
...can you imagine the crowing on CNBC when we pass all time highs.....!
I sense even the CNBC guys/gals know this is weird. The floor traders cant figure out why we dont ever correct or get any volatility one way or the other.
Yep should be a great 15 minutes just before the market turns and heads back to all time new lows.
the trend is your friend... until it isn't.
Any trend is your friend. Doesn't matter if it is a trend upwards or downwards. The only trend that isn't much use is a flat line. Which you will notice they are avoiding.
Think of the market right now as a swing in a playground. To play it, you have to get it moving and to really play it you have to pump it into each rotation. Doesn't matter if it is swinging forward or backwards, climbing or falling. The game is in the motion and you play with the motion.
A swing that doesn't oscillate is not a good toy.
A market that does not oscillate is not making anyone any money.
[dup]
why stop at 1,565?
Christ.. just keep it rolling and aim for 5,000
time to load up on SPY $500 leaps?
New all time highs in 2011 bitchez!
Why waste time gooseing the market everyday? What not just peg it at sp 2500? Why?
I would give a year of my life to see him drop dead.
Tyler...might you also, in your next round of calculations, see if you can extrapolate where the USD might be at that point?
Obviously, the DXY will be well below 50...but how far below is the magic question.
At least the US will be able to repay their debt.
Repay the debt how, with imagination?
In 2009 I was in discussion with some investors when the dow was at it low that we would get a DOW 15000 by the end of 2010.
The reason why was because else the derivate market would explode if the market wouldn't recover.
We didn't get our 15000 but we'll need one in the comming 3 years before 2015 or else the shit hits the fan.
The entire system was constructed to constantly rise and the derivates where made to finance the cheap money. Anything below 15000 for 2015 is a doomsday scenario.
How they'll do it, I don't know because it will cost a heck of a lot of money to do it.
But otherwise EARTHS GDP X10 will hang above our heads.
We where called crazy in that time, and even when I was convinced it would happen, I didn't fully put my money into it. I made some good money on the rise but not all there was to be made.
SD, you may have a great point. I am beginning to believe this is all tied to a derivatives game wherein S&P needs to hit a certain ungodly target or its all BUST from there on. Again who knows what that target is and how we get there !!! Amen
so your investment advice is to assist in the perpetuation of a massive fraud because facing reality would be a major inconvenience for banks?
lovely. Mom must be proud.
as far as the "how they'll do it" question...by a complete devaluation of the USD and total annihilation of the middle class to the point of daring the remaining few that haven't died of starvation or turned to cannibalism to partake in a hostile overthrow of the government and reinstitute the use of the guillotine in the public square for a simultaneous dose of justice and entertainment.
fine. see ya there.
Hate the game not the player!
The should have been Madoff's defense right? And Milken...and Boesky...and Stanford...in fact...that catchy little bit of ghettology could be used to justify pretty much all manner of atrocity.
how far we have fallen.....
The guy worked out that the Dow would have to go to 15000 to stop the financial world ending and therefore somebody would make that happen. He then traded accordingly.
How is that anything like what Madoff did? Seriously?
SD - think you are on the money. Was bearish for six-months playing the fundamentals thinking this market had to correct and got my ass handed to me. Staying bullish now and making losses back. We will see QE2.5, QE 3, QE 3.5 and so on for exactly the reasons you stated.
Let it run, I know what awaits.
I love the smell of revolution in the morning, it smells like, like.....
Oligarchy Ass
Bitchez
Thanks Tyler,
I sit at my desk with my mundane middle class job fuming over this shit on a daily basis. Just when I think I am about the smash all the shit in my office with my face due to my lack of ability to vent it; I read a post like this and feel much better.
Thanks again.
Somebody's got a case of the Mondays!
I know and it's my Friday. LOL.
Buy AAPL , NFLX and AMZN and ignore all the bullshit charts. Be guided by Dr. Bernanke. You will feel better.
Always feels good to support starvation and privation round the world so our equity market can go up. Who could be against that?
QE2 actually runs into July so we won't be into QE3 quite yet if the S&P 500 makes a new all time high in on June 27.
Maybe Ben will come out with an "irrational exuberance" speech next week.
I wonder if Greenspan asks himself each day "why didnt I think of this?"
Getting close to that 1360 number I was talking about.
Market always looks the most bullish when it tops out.
We'll see if it can make it past that, but I doubt it. I'll be ejecting the rest of my longs around the 1350 area, and I'll sit back and wait to see what happens.
Before we top out, I'm sure that Tom O'Brien, David White, and Larry Pesavento at TFNN.com will all have nervous breakdowns and throw in the towel in disgust.
Their subscribers must be abandoning ship in droves.
Thats because they rely on fucking charts. There is only one Holygrail of charts. The POMO chart
+1000 pomos
You know it. 1,350 by this time next week...if not a day or two sooner. That's just about a 100% retracement...the mother of all Fibonacci retracements.
Robo I am out of my longs on SPI and had first big loss yesterday just to watch end of night session new high .When I open daily charts I shit my self going long but I have to..
"Market only goes up"...reminds me of the Tech Bubble. I see very little in the way of fundamentals for bank stocks and a Huge Downside Risk.
Tech only goes up, real estate only goes up, S&P only goes up, till suddenly 1 morning they dont.
That's exactly right. That's just how it will be.
But the guy who decides today is The Down Day will have already shorted the crap out of it.
When commentors here claim that this market is just a tool to sop up hot money from the middle-class ... they ain't shit'n you.
I actually expected the S&P to reach 2000 before the end of QE2.
But whatever the level, if there is no more QE we are going to see the greatest collapse in equity prices ever.
Since the elites, TPB, them (whatever term you care to use) are doing pretty good unlike most of the rest of us who have to buy food, fuel, and clothing, we clearly need to come up with an alternative but catchy phrase for S&P.
After all, maybe the S&P is the best gauge of how succesfull they (see above) have been in their pillaging.
Plus, BB has inherited a few alternative monickers of late.
I am a little stumped so consider this just a meager start.
S&P = The Special People Index...
S&P = The Scourge and Pillage Index...
Come on - help a poor brother out.
Pete
Printing money can do a lot to boost sentiments......
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/02/dow-13000-coming.html
I stick with my physical PMs and leap puts on anything else! Have dumped all my longs
quite a while ago so no sweat here. I say let them eat shit once they get to the feeding
trough!
look at the ratio of DJI to Gold (ZO). its been roughly flat since the start of 2009. equities can go up all they want but unless there is a different reason for it (fiat USD) then the ratio will remain intact. when you eliminate the fiat valuation unit (USD) equities have gone nowhere for 2 years.
During the Weimar Republic 1920's hyperinflation the German stock market soared to unimagined heights...in a catastrophicly deteriorating currency. And essentially was at par in inflation adjusted terms all along in the nominal currency figures...in other word returned 0% purchasing power appreciation.
However an entire modern hotel in down town Berlin was purchased by a former bellboy for a few gold coins he had saved from earlier times.
It's easy to imagine a future time, maybe a year from now, when we'll all be here discussing the only phenomenon then important in markets, asset evaluation and monetary policy: Hyperinflation. And when we do we'll be exchanging notes on how some assets are going up in price to the moon, and others and falling in price to the floor at the same time. But I'll say right now that we will still be blaming The Bernank for both, and rightfully so. What I cannot foresee from where we stand now is if the larger world will be holding together still, or rapidly falling into various forms of ruin. Part of me just does not want to go there. Another part of me says, and there's your answer.
IMO the world (that sans the USA) is waking up to the fact every day it continues to denominate international trade in US$'s is a day closer to political overthrow, etc. That's a pretty motivational situation. Russia and China, bilaterally, have agreed to conduct their trade without US$s. I believe Brazil and India will probably follow that and may very well form the nucleus of what might later be considered the "materials and labor" trading block. The OPEC group may join them...and they will all probably at some point chuck the US buck in order to preserve their own internal and multi-later trading arrangements.
We'll see have that goes for the USA and those tied to it at the waist.
Always hedge, always hedge. US$ are going to be alot less valuable in the next bit of time. If you have dollars, its a good time to trade those in for something else, at least in part.
you might have to book all those earnings in SDRs.http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm
Bancors, actually. The NWO currency to be.
The pattern from around 06/06 to around 03/07 looks pretty similar to the pattern from 07/10 to the present. The moves are larger and there's a slightly higher trajectory in the latter but they're similar.
Not that it means anything, of course. I could buy a Ouija board and have more success predicting where the markets will go.
Dow 12,300
S&P 1300
Gold tamed at 1350
CSCO obliterated
Ben destroys all correlation in his favor. I cannot wait until this all collapses upon his head.
Maybe TD needs to investigate further what SD referred to above - what their derivative targets are ? Buffett sure has something like S&P 1600 on his mind ??
+1 The Bearded Clam has become shit magnet Numero Uno. LOL I despise these reptiles. I am sorry they didn't get Mubarak's head up on an obelisk in Cairo.
So the carnage expected in Mar, per your post a week back, is toast. Black. Burnt.
Beautifully eloquent post, TD.
It's better to live in an S&P up 150% than in a house down 40% says Ben. That is how we solve the housing crisis.
TD, I would humbly disagree with you, despite your greatness at pointing out the failings of the ChairSATAN.
The trajectory is an escape velocity one not a straight line continuance... the bears have given up completely at the relentless HFT fume churn based on www.south-sea-tulips.com fabulous earnings projections for the Sh!t & P!ss 500
REITs went on their nth consecutive moonshot today.
Upgrades across-the-board too by all the slimebags (Duetsche, Jeffries, Citi, etc).
SPG literally "upgraded" to a price target of $125 per share...I shit you not.
I fucking quit. This con will not end, ever.
until the poor are all dead and there is no-one left to feed the rich slobs
Well, obviously, the mother fuckers are upgrading the REITS like hell to exit their positions and dump them on some dumbfucks.
I just get amazed that it actually works, over and over and over and over.
SPG to $125...seriously un-fucking-real.
BM what's not to understand about the upgrades? If burritos, sandwiches, boots, and sporting wear companies can command 1,000,000,000 PE's...surely the economy is booming.
Those REITs are doomed. These numbers do not pencil out with rents received.
The Bernank is all about the nominal, not the real.
ChairSATAN has all his nuts on black 13 to win
Birini is the biggest WHORE EVER ON CNBC, I would buy his fund, just to wipe my ass each morning with the statement.
SPX
1450 or Bust!
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/02/spx_2390.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
A Prediction with both value and date.... coool now whats the value Sept 15th 2011?
This time the West isn’t leading the world in manufacturing any longer, no motor to drive economic recovery. In the Great Depression they managed to narrowly escape default, but sovereign debts were nothing like they are now. Bailing out the banksters could bring down whole economies; this time could be sovereign defaults.
The warning signs were when confidence, “irrational exuberance” in the markets was so high, it seemed they always went up, a “permanently high plateau”, as the infamous comment went, when shoe shine boys could give tips. Today’s equivalent of the shoe shine boys, the over-zealous ,over-optimistic, with no reference made to fundamentals, cheer leading, media shills, are giving tips again.
What’s happened during this boom and bust decade, with banksters gambling in unprecedented amounts of money and losing, but being bailed out by countries with tax payers absorbing all the debt and kicking the can down the road for 2 years by fake QE multiplying sovereign debts, but you “ain’t seen nothing yet”. When all credit is maxed out, that’s when austerity measures are imposed onto populations by extreme governments, that’s the real beginning of the Second Great Depression.
2008 Was Just A Mini Crash Before Another Great DepressionWe are repeating, in incredibly similar fashion, the 1929-1933 period.
Reading that headline, am I the only one who got a flashback to the monologue in Terminator 2 where Sarah Connor explains the date Skynet came online?
The question for all the RoboSquawkers & Hairy Wangs of the world is whether they'd truly recommend buying now.
I will admit that I would have laughed at buy recommendations in 2009 at the low (I did, in fact). But to those who did buy, assuming they weren't being fed very specific and very privileged information, weren't investing; they were gambling. And yes, even gamblers sometimes win big (the house always wins in the long run, though. Always. Today's gains will be tomorrow's losses, and then some, and just look at a 12 year chart of equity indexes, and consider all the destroyed players in that wreckage).
That wasn't because I was wrong in my opinion that the economy was not going to organically improve (what has housing & construction done, what has the job market done, what have auto sales done, what have consumer discretionary sales done, what has anything of significance done? - engineering and shuffling financial products isn't significant in real economic terms; it's cancerous), it was because I misunderestimated Bernanke's dedication to his craft of destruction and fiat madness, and that he'd get the results he has, mainly on the indexes (and to a much, much smaller amount on consumer/biz spending, which has grown very tepidly YoY).
But all Ben has done is pull activity forward, at a devastating cost, that will inevitably show up knocking on the door, and demand more than a pound of flesh.
He may turn out to be a destroyer of a decade or more of organic GDP growth. He has spread copious amounts of weed killer in order to prop up and perpetuate his mythical tale of 'green shoots.'
The price the economy and standard of living of Americans will pay for Bernanke's recklessness will be incredibly steep to the negative side.
Bernanke is no magician. He's a charlatan, fraud and shyster, and his great confidence scheme isn't even working, which is why the Fed is buying fantastically overvalued equities and has bought rancid MBS from those with an inside track on the Fed, and why the Fed is manipulating futures, and monetizing the U.S. deficit spending, because no one else will bid on any of those assets at their loco prices.
Ben has become the buyer of last resort and greatest [willing, as it's not his money] fool (so far), in an effort to paint the tape green on equity and debt markets, if he had any intentions of actually restoring organic economic growth he has failed, and the only question that remains is whether the Fed will successfully pawn off what is a catastrophe of a balance sheet onto the greatest fools of all they anticipate will not object, to wit, the U.S. taxpayers (with Congress' and the President's full aiding and abetting).
The immutable laws of physics and markets will re-interject themselves, no matter how insane and desperate and creative Ben S. Bernanke is. All Bernanke has done is angle the downward ramp at a much greater slope and set the table for an historically epic crash.
Actually, it's working great, for those who are intended to be the beneficiaries. The S&P's relentless march up does not reflect your prosperity, but theirs. And you're supposed to believe in a trickle-down effect. Crumbs from the masters' table.
I'm actually fairly well-off, as my father started a robust business at a young age, and shunned all forms of debt (God rest his soul, and I'll never take credit for any of my success that he laid the foundation for).
But money is not my God, and this system is not working well by any metric. Even those who are corrupt and receiving monetary renumeration because they're on the inside will never enjoy what they may now view as an asset, but which will be their undoing.
I grew up with and am now surrounded by all sorts of people, including ones with a lot of money. Exceedingly few are happy. Psychologists refer to this as 'habituation,' and economists refer to it as the law of diminishing returns & marginal incremental utility.
The equity rally since Aug 2010 has continued for longer than expected - similar to what happened after I began my warnings in early 2007 but the market decline didn't start until mid 2007.
Despite market intervention/QE, natural market forces can not be stopped - only delayed.
When the market does reassert control, the reaction (the overdue correction) may be even more extreme due to that delay.
Key global indexes are now extremely overextended and it's concerning.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
With few exceptions when I quiz everyone from the old fart from Habitat for Humanity to the guys who do the landscaping, to the developer and just about everybody else - things are great, way better than last year and the economy is turning. I commented before the malls, big boxes etc are packed and traffic heavy. The restaurants have line ups and real estate is moving in this fomerly depressed area. Even the fixed income crowd are feeling good about things. (that's not to day I agree, I don't but it is what I am observing).
Where exactly are you located? I see the Mid-Atlantic area pretty clearly and once you leave the ivory tower of Washington, D.C, things have not improved much. Sure it's not int he toilet, it's crawling up the sides. But hardly out of the woods. Hiring is almost nil. Maybe it's like that where you are but a statement like that needs a geographic context.