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At The Current Rate Of Growth, The S&P 500 Will Surpass Its All Time High On June 27, 2011

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Since it is obvious that Bernanke is now taking his central planning tips from Laszlo "Let Me Just Whip Out My Ruler" Birinyi, and is dead set on growing the market in basically a flat line (there has been no volatility in stocks in the past 6 months - none), we decided to extrapolate the market based on the Woods Hole event, and determine when stocks will take out the all time previous closing high of 1,565.15 from October 10, 2007. In a nutshell: at the rate of ascent demonstrated since the confirmation of QE2, the S&P will pass its all time high in 96 working days, and will hit a fresh all time high on June 27, 2011 (roughly at the time housing will be about 40% down from its all time highs, and real unemployment adjusted for labor farce [sic] participation is 13% and real U-6 is 23%). Put that date in your calendar. Presumably at that point Bernanke will concede that he has created enough of a "wealth effect." Although since by then we will have started QE3 for about a month, we may well surpass Zimbabwe's daily average stock market gains 250% of at some point in Q3, and put von Havenstein's "wealth effect economic miracle" to shame in Q4.

Some other observations:

In case the Chairsatan does not think that a new all time high is sufficiently manipulated and decided to keep pumping the market at the same rate of growth, one year from today, the S&P will be at 1968,79, in two years it will be at 2,610.44, and in three years it won't matter as a loaf of bread will cost a few quadrillion dollars.

Next up, we will extrapolate the cost of wheat, corn, rice, cotton. To cut the suspense, we expect a 100% growth in 2 months, a 1,000% growth in 6, and it goes exponential from there.

 

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Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:38 | 953981 hambone
hambone's picture

From March '09 bottom

Dow - up 90% ...13% from all time peak

S&P 500 - up 99% ...15% from all time peak

Nasdaq - up 121% ...44% from all time peak

Russell 2000 - up 133% ...4% from all time peak

A Wanger appearance of why this makes sense would be great now.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:33 | 954190 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

The market is a reflection of the wealth of the top 10% of the nation (world?). Since the essential element required for the existence of great wealth is great poverty...it almost makes perfect sense that the market would continue to rise along with unemployment, food stamps and foreclosures. the poorer the bottom 90% get, the richer the top 10% get. money is never lost, merely transferred. In this case...it's being transferred from the bottom 90% to the top 10%...in other words: business as usual.

This post was sponsored by The Glenlivet. Fine Single Malt Scotch....Accept no substitutes.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 19:38 | 954537 Blankman
Blankman's picture

I prefer Glenmorangie - Nectar D'Or

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 21:03 | 954768 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

None of that twelve years aged-in-the-wood chichi for me. Brand ? You know what brand -- the cheap stuff !

http://media.nj.com/stephen_whitty_on_movies/photo/9112332-large.jpg

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 12:13 | 955696 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Famous Grouse.....the national drink of scotland.....the single malt shit is for rich furiners. Cheap and high quality.....well.....high enough.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:38 | 953985 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Long live free markets! Or something...

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:42 | 953990 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

The reality of extrapolation...

Male Doctor:  How often do you have sex?

Male Patient: Once, I almost had sex twice in one day.

Male Doctor:  So about 730 times per year?

Male Patient:  That must be about right.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 11:45 | 955656 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

the REALity of sextrapulation:

2 over-the-hill niggaz wer trying to have a child, but nothing semed 2 work.  so, they decided to go see their doc-tors.  later, thet evening, when they were home, together, they discussed their visits and examinations.

sapphire sez:  my doc-tor aksd me what my flo wuz like, an i sed, "Why, linoleum."

the kingfisher sez:  i aksd my doc-tor if dey wuz any problem wit me, and he told me i wuz impotant!

yo! otis! m' man!  YouTube - Doug Clark & the Hot Nuts "Baby Let Me Bang Your Box Pt. 1"

g8r!!!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:43 | 953992 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

BULLSHIT!

Each day these fake markets go higher based on utter and complete bullshit, I buy more 1x100's silver. I have no plans to buy ANYTHING else. Reduce reuse recycle.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:49 | 954019 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

i'm with you there. took the last of my money out of the market today and gonna buy some silver bars this weekend.

this is now officially terrifying. Zimbabwe here we come.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:04 | 954075 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I'm following you 100% and I'm even making money with it :)

I buy in the US, sell in Europe with a 25% premium and buy again, especially buy the stuff you can't buy in Europe and sell those.

And I sell about 200 ounces a month and buy back about 240 ounces a month.

This way, my silver stash rises pretty nice without any real cost besides about 8 hours a month work on it.

 

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 18:51 | 958290 D1eeeeeNAHHHHH
D1eeeeeNAHHHHH's picture

Hi Sudden Debt,

I just joined ZH.  I love your commentary and insight.  Keep up the good thoughts!

I just got involved with silver and would love to know how to sell to Europe.

Could you tell me who I can sell to in Europe and a safe way to get paid when or before I send silver? 

Thanks a lot!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:13 | 954108 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep I dont buy it 1 bit either, I dont care if the projection is S&P to 5,000 by next Friday. They can suck it Im buying up all the silver I can, let the lunatics play with their stocks all they like, I'm betting it will be the rug suddenly pulled out one of these mornings and nothing any stock holder can do about it. Elites win, retail scrubs will hold the bag.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 14:18 | 955887 Matt
Matt's picture

I'd be with you on this, except I still need to buy food, electricity and clothing. too bad there is no easy way to stockpile electricity ...

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:42 | 953993 6 String
6 String's picture

S + P 500, the risk free asset.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:28 | 954163 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

The CBOE disagrees.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:42 | 953994 jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

The Nasdaq is 50 points away from its 2007 peak, I wouldnt even use the year 2000 peak. I would assume the Russell 2000 '07 high would be some form of resistance for Sack.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:44 | 954006 hambone
hambone's picture

C'mon - Sack needs a real challenge and recouping that '00 Nas high would be a real resume builder!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:44 | 954001 jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

The best part is that I cant find a single person who is actually BUYING at these levels.

Not many people are selling, but no buyers.

Who exactly do the IB's plan to sell this inventory to?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:49 | 954012 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Ben S. Bernanke on behalf of US taxpayers.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:14 | 954113 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What taxpayer? Walmart part time employees make enough to cover the largest transfer of wealth in world history?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:17 | 954336 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

Just add printing......

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:50 | 954022 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Fannie Mae. It worked with everything else.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:51 | 954024 uno
uno's picture

I'm sure it's the usual scam, get the general public 401k money to distribute to.  Of course there is a lot less of it now, but that is always their scam, headlines every night about dow high to get the greed gene going.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:46 | 954009 monkeyfaction
monkeyfaction's picture

Taking the last proper dip to be the start of July last year, we have moved from around 1020 on the S&P 500 to 1330 in less than 7 months.

The last time we moved from 1022 to 1330 it took 3 years and that was when the economy was supposed to be amazing and people had jobs. It feels so wrong.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:11 | 954104 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

And If we now know it was wrong and an aberration back then, what does it tell us now?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:47 | 954010 redarrow
redarrow's picture

There will be no QE3, the Fed runs a severe risk of losing control over the yield curve. I think the Chairman knows this.

Bernanke's lips are already quivering explaining the position of the Fed, more monetary easing with no effect on employment will make the Chairman stutter like Hank Paulson.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:52 | 954025 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

The yield curve is so fucking 80s. It has been replaced by the NFLX curve.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:51 | 954028 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

There will be no QE3, the Fed runs a severe risk of losing control over the yield curve.

ChairStain would argue the opposite.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:16 | 954128 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

 In the Bernanke's most recent video his hands are shaking quite noticeably.

 

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:10 | 954316 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

why no qe3 ? it looks like they are able to now control price if crude, metals and food ?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:47 | 954011 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

You know what's fascinating -- none of the QE has hit the metals stocks. In fact, if you watch the action there it is more than apparent that the "invisible hand of Bennie Boy" is actively involved in trying to ram the sector down. IT is the ONLY sector actually trading and displaying any volatility.

Coincidence? You be the judge.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:01 | 954046 hambone
hambone's picture

Great point - look at the areas of volatility / FX, Commodities...almost like there is effort to create real risk in these sectors vs. riskless equities.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:16 | 954127 6 String
6 String's picture

Yup, precious metals are evil. S + P 500 is the risk free asset: "Don't fight fed," the banking cartels, or the asset management monkeys. they will destroy you. 

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:38 | 954202 hambone
hambone's picture

Mr. String - I think there is a good chance they will actually destroy me (and some of my earthly friends) whether I fight them or not!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:12 | 954319 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

exactly right. when we fear them, they own us.

 

They own us anyway, but losing one's fear is the first step in breaking one's chains.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:25 | 954361 6 String
6 String's picture

Of course, you are right hambone. My tongue was firmly planted in cheek. When the S + P 500 goes up 190% on monday one day, 241% on Tuesay like Zimbabwe, it will be meaningless destruction as 100,00,000 million dollar notes have a hard time getting a hold of 12 eggs.

This uptick is seen as good--it is not. It is not natural and it will not end well.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 10:38 | 955590 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

 

Hahaha.  yer tongue my ass, fishook.  +xxx

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:48 | 954015 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

IWM poking above jul 07 hi

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:49 | 954017 hannah
hannah's picture

i have a $1000 bet we beat all time highs on the s&p500 before we collapse....i should have bet $10,000.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:07 | 954086 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

What will you do with all that worthless money, burn it?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:43 | 954404 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

that's fucking brilliant!

Nobody would expect you to pay up after the collapse. whoever took that bet is a CNBC grade moron!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:49 | 954021 hannah
hannah's picture

...can you imagine the crowing on CNBC when we pass all time highs.....!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:52 | 954029 jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

I sense even the CNBC guys/gals know this is weird. The floor traders cant figure out why we dont ever correct or get any volatility one way or the other.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:07 | 954088 Revolution_star...
Revolution_starts_now's picture

Yep should be a great 15 minutes just before the market turns and heads back to all time new lows.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:51 | 954027 blind squirrel
blind squirrel's picture

the trend is your friend... until it isn't.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:31 | 954177 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Any trend is your friend. Doesn't matter if it is a trend upwards or downwards. The only trend that isn't much use is a flat line. Which you will notice they are avoiding.

Think of the market right now as a swing in a playground. To play it, you have to get it moving and to really play it you have to pump it into each rotation. Doesn't matter if it is swinging forward or backwards, climbing or falling. The game is in the motion and you play with the motion.

A swing that doesn't oscillate is not a good toy.

A market that does not oscillate is not making anyone any money.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:32 | 954179 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

[dup]

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:52 | 954037 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

why stop at 1,565?

Christ.. just keep it rolling and aim for 5,000

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:57 | 954054 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

time to load up on SPY $500 leaps?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:53 | 954038 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

New all time highs in 2011 bitchez!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:54 | 954043 Brokenarrow
Brokenarrow's picture

Why waste time gooseing the market everyday? What not just peg it at sp 2500? Why?

I would give a year of my life to see him drop dead.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:55 | 954050 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Tyler...might you also, in your next round of calculations, see if you can extrapolate where the USD might be at that point?

Obviously, the DXY will be well below 50...but how far below is the magic question.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:56 | 954052 Hollow_Point
Hollow_Point's picture

At least the US will be able to repay their debt.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:15 | 954122 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Repay the debt how, with imagination?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 16:58 | 954056 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

In 2009 I was in discussion with some investors when the dow was at it low that we would get a DOW 15000 by the end of 2010.

The reason why was because else the derivate market would explode if the market wouldn't recover.

We didn't get our 15000 but we'll need one in the comming 3 years before 2015 or else the shit hits the fan.

The entire system was constructed to constantly rise and the derivates where made to finance the cheap money. Anything below 15000 for 2015 is a doomsday scenario.

How they'll do it, I don't know because it will cost a heck of a lot of money to do it.

But otherwise EARTHS GDP X10 will hang above our heads.

We where called crazy in that time, and even when I was convinced it would happen, I didn't fully put my money into it. I made some good money on the rise but not all there was to be made.

 

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:05 | 954079 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

SD, you may have a great point. I am beginning to believe this is all tied to a derivatives game wherein S&P needs to hit a certain ungodly target or its all BUST from there on. Again who knows what that target is and how we get there !!! Amen

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:11 | 954102 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

so your investment advice is to assist in the perpetuation of a massive fraud because facing reality would be a major inconvenience for banks?

lovely. Mom must be proud.

as far as the "how they'll do it" question...by a complete devaluation of the USD and total annihilation of the middle class to the point of daring the remaining few that haven't died of starvation or turned to cannibalism to partake in a hostile overthrow of the government and reinstitute the use of the guillotine in the public square for a simultaneous dose of justice and entertainment.

fine. see ya there.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:14 | 954114 monkeyfaction
monkeyfaction's picture

Hate the game not the player!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:43 | 954226 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

The should have been Madoff's defense right? And Milken...and Boesky...and Stanford...in fact...that catchy little bit of ghettology could be used to justify pretty much all manner of atrocity.

how far we have fallen.....

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:12 | 954322 monkeyfaction
monkeyfaction's picture

The guy worked out that the Dow would have to go to 15000 to stop the financial world ending and therefore somebody would make that happen. He then traded accordingly.

How is that anything like what Madoff did? Seriously?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:06 | 954304 Gimp
Gimp's picture

SD - think you are on the money. Was bearish for six-months playing the fundamentals thinking this market had to correct and got my ass handed to me. Staying bullish now and making losses back. We will see QE2.5, QE 3, QE 3.5 and so on for exactly the reasons you stated.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:03 | 954073 Revolution_star...
Revolution_starts_now's picture

Let it run, I know what awaits.

I love the smell of revolution in the morning, it smells like, like.....

Oligarchy Ass

Bitchez

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:06 | 954084 civilmanus1
civilmanus1's picture

Thanks Tyler,

I sit at my desk with my mundane middle class job fuming over this shit on a daily basis. Just when I think I am about the smash all the shit in my office with my face due to my lack of ability to vent it; I read a post like this and feel much better.

Thanks again.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:10 | 954101 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

Somebody's got a case of the Mondays!

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:13 | 954110 civilmanus1
civilmanus1's picture

I know and it's my Friday. LOL.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:22 | 954135 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Buy AAPL , NFLX and AMZN and ignore all the bullshit charts. Be guided by Dr. Bernanke. You will feel better.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 19:43 | 954553 hambone
hambone's picture

Always feels good to support starvation and privation round the world so our equity market can go up.  Who could be against that?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:09 | 954095 Nostradamus
Nostradamus's picture

QE2 actually runs into July so we won't be into QE3 quite yet if the S&P 500 makes a new all time high in on June 27.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:12 | 954107 jobs1234
jobs1234's picture

Maybe Ben will come out with an "irrational exuberance" speech next week.

I wonder if Greenspan asks himself each day "why didnt I think of this?"

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:14 | 954116 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Getting close to that 1360 number I was talking about.

Market always looks the most bullish when it tops out.

We'll see if it can make it past that, but I doubt it.  I'll be ejecting the rest of my longs around the 1350 area, and I'll sit back and wait to see what happens.

Before we top out, I'm sure that Tom O'Brien, David White, and Larry Pesavento at TFNN.com will all have nervous breakdowns and throw in the towel in disgust.

Their subscribers must be abandoning ship in droves.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:27 | 954160 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Thats because they rely on fucking charts. There is only one Holygrail of charts. The POMO chart

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:34 | 954195 civilmanus1
civilmanus1's picture

+1000 pomos

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 20:46 | 954723 cnbcsucks
cnbcsucks's picture

You know it.  1,350 by this time next week...if not a day or two sooner.  That's just about a 100% retracement...the mother of all Fibonacci retracements.

 

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 05:52 | 955437 bluemaster
bluemaster's picture

Robo I am out of my longs on SPI and had first big loss yesterday just to watch end of night  session new high .When I open daily charts I shit my self going long but I have to..

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:14 | 954118 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

"Market only goes up"...reminds me of the Tech Bubble. I see very little in the way of fundamentals for bank stocks and a Huge Downside Risk.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:17 | 954129 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Tech only goes up, real estate only goes up, S&P only goes up, till suddenly 1 morning they dont.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:45 | 954232 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

That's exactly right. That's just how it will be.

But the guy who decides today is The Down Day will have already shorted the crap out of it.

When commentors here claim that this market is just a tool to sop up hot money from the middle-class ... they ain't shit'n you.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:20 | 954138 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I actually expected the S&P to reach 2000 before the end of QE2.

But whatever the level, if there is no more QE we are going to see the greatest collapse in equity prices ever.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:22 | 954141 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Since the elites, TPB, them (whatever term you care to use) are doing pretty good unlike most of the rest of us who have to buy food, fuel, and clothing, we clearly need to come up with an alternative but catchy phrase for S&P.

After all, maybe the S&P is the best gauge of how succesfull they (see above) have been in their pillaging.

Plus, BB has inherited a few alternative monickers of late.

I am a little stumped so consider this just a meager start.

S&P = The Special People Index...

S&P = The Scourge and Pillage Index...

Come on - help a poor brother out.

 

Pete

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:22 | 954145 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

Printing money can do a lot to boost sentiments......

 

 

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/02/dow-13000-coming.html

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:25 | 954154 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

I stick with my physical PMs and leap puts on anything else! Have dumped all my longs

quite a while ago so no sweat here. I say let them eat shit once they get to the feeding

trough! 

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:31 | 954178 kentfinance
kentfinance's picture

look at the ratio of DJI to Gold (ZO). its been roughly flat since the start of 2009. equities can go up all they want but unless there is a different reason for it (fiat USD) then the ratio will remain intact. when you eliminate the fiat valuation unit (USD) equities have gone nowhere for 2 years.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:39 | 954210 Spigot
Spigot's picture

During the Weimar Republic 1920's hyperinflation the German stock market soared to unimagined heights...in a catastrophicly deteriorating currency. And essentially was at par in inflation adjusted terms all along in the nominal currency figures...in other word returned 0% purchasing power appreciation.

However an entire modern hotel in down town Berlin was purchased by a former bellboy for a few gold coins he had saved from earlier times.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:54 | 954263 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It's easy to imagine a future time, maybe a year from now, when we'll all be here discussing the only phenomenon then important in markets, asset evaluation and monetary policy: Hyperinflation. And when we do we'll be exchanging notes on how some assets are going up in price to the moon, and others and falling in price to the floor at the same time. But I'll say right now that we will still be blaming The Bernank for both, and rightfully so. What I cannot foresee from where we stand now is if the larger world will be holding together still, or rapidly falling into various forms of ruin. Part of me just does not want to go there. Another part of me says, and there's your answer.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 20:45 | 954720 Spigot
Spigot's picture

IMO the world (that sans the USA) is waking up to the fact every day it continues to denominate international trade in US$'s is a day closer to political overthrow, etc. That's a pretty motivational situation. Russia and China, bilaterally, have agreed to conduct their trade without US$s. I believe Brazil and India will probably follow that and may very well form the nucleus of what might later be considered the "materials and labor" trading block. The OPEC group may join them...and they will all probably at some point chuck the US buck in order to preserve their own internal and multi-later trading arrangements.

We'll see have that goes for the USA and those tied to it at the waist.

Always hedge, always hedge. US$ are going to be alot less valuable in the next bit of time. If you have dollars, its a good time to trade those in for something else, at least in part.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 21:32 | 954845 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

you might have to book all those earnings in SDRs.http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:06 | 956368 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Bancors, actually. The NWO currency to be. 

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:51 | 954253 Clowns to the l...
Clowns to the left_ jokers to the right's picture

The pattern from around 06/06 to around 03/07 looks pretty similar to the pattern from 07/10 to the present. The moves are larger and there's a slightly higher trajectory in the latter but they're similar.

Not that it means anything, of course. I could buy a Ouija board and have more success predicting where the markets will go.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 17:55 | 954265 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Dow 12,300

S&P 1300

Gold tamed at 1350

CSCO obliterated 

Ben destroys all correlation in his favor. I cannot wait until this all collapses upon his head.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:18 | 954343 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Maybe TD needs to investigate further what SD referred to above - what their derivative targets are ? Buffett sure has something like S&P 1600 on his mind ??

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 21:18 | 956712 Saxxon
Saxxon's picture

+1 The Bearded Clam has become shit magnet Numero Uno.  LOL I despise these reptiles.  I am sorry they didn't get Mubarak's head up on an obelisk in Cairo.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:15 | 954331 OptionsHedge
OptionsHedge's picture

So the carnage expected in Mar, per your post a week back, is toast. Black. Burnt.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:28 | 954368 Bob
Bob's picture

Beautifully eloquent post, TD.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 18:55 | 954436 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

It's better to live in an S&P up 150% than in a house down 40% says Ben. That is how we solve the housing crisis.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 19:07 | 954459 Racer
Racer's picture

TD, I would humbly disagree with you, despite your greatness at pointing out the failings of the ChairSATAN.

The trajectory is an escape velocity one not a straight line continuance... the bears have given up completely at the relentless HFT fume churn based on www.south-sea-tulips.com fabulous earnings projections for the Sh!t & P!ss 500

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 19:32 | 954519 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

REITs went on their nth consecutive moonshot today.

Upgrades across-the-board too by all the slimebags (Duetsche, Jeffries, Citi, etc).

SPG literally "upgraded" to a price target of $125 per share...I shit you not.

I fucking quit.  This con will not end, ever.

 

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 19:42 | 954546 Racer
Racer's picture

until the poor are all dead and there is no-one left to feed the rich slobs

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 19:44 | 954552 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Well, obviously, the mother fuckers are upgrading the REITS like hell to exit their positions and dump them on some dumbfucks.

I just get amazed that it actually works, over and over and over and over.

SPG to $125...seriously un-fucking-real.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 20:17 | 954643 NumberNone
NumberNone's picture

BM what's not to understand about the upgrades?  If burritos, sandwiches, boots, and sporting wear companies can command 1,000,000,000 PE's...surely the economy is booming. 

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:06 | 956362 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Those REITs are doomed. These numbers do not pencil out with rents received. 

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 19:45 | 954562 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

The Bernank is all about the nominal, not the real.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 19:54 | 954590 Racer
Racer's picture

ChairSATAN has all his nuts on black 13 to win

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 21:23 | 954822 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

Birini is the biggest WHORE EVER ON CNBC, I would buy his fund, just to wipe my ass each morning with the statement.

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 22:03 | 954913 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

A Prediction with both value and date.... coool now whats the value Sept 15th 2011?

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 22:46 | 954979 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

This time the West isn’t leading the world in manufacturing any longer, no motor to drive economic recovery. In the Great Depression they managed to narrowly escape default, but sovereign debts were nothing like they are now. Bailing out the banksters could bring down whole economies; this time could be sovereign defaults.

The warning signs were when confidence, “irrational exuberance” in the markets was so high, it seemed they always went up, a “permanently high plateau”, as the infamous comment went, when shoe shine boys could give tips. Today’s equivalent of the shoe shine boys, the over-zealous ,over-optimistic, with no reference made to fundamentals, cheer leading, media shills, are giving tips again.

What’s happened during this boom and bust decade, with banksters gambling in unprecedented amounts of money and losing, but being bailed out by countries with tax payers absorbing all the debt and kicking the can down the road for 2 years by fake QE multiplying sovereign debts, but you “ain’t seen nothing yet”. When all credit is maxed out, that’s when austerity measures are imposed onto populations by extreme governments, that’s the real beginning of the Second Great Depression.

 

2008 Was Just A Mini Crash Before Another Great Depression

 

We are repeating, in incredibly similar fashion, the 1929-1933 period.

 

Fri, 02/11/2011 - 23:09 | 955020 hayesy316
hayesy316's picture

Reading that headline, am I the only one who got a flashback to the monologue in Terminator 2 where Sarah Connor explains the date Skynet came online?

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 01:31 | 955229 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The question for all the RoboSquawkers & Hairy Wangs of the world is whether they'd truly recommend buying now.

I will admit that I would have laughed at buy recommendations in 2009 at the low (I did, in fact). But to those who did buy, assuming they weren't being fed very specific and very privileged information, weren't investing; they were gambling. And yes, even gamblers sometimes win big (the house always wins in the long run, though. Always. Today's gains will be tomorrow's losses, and then some, and just look at a 12 year chart of equity indexes, and consider all the destroyed players in that wreckage).

That wasn't because I was wrong in my opinion that the economy was not going to organically improve (what has housing & construction done, what has the job market done, what have auto sales done, what have consumer discretionary sales done, what has anything of significance done? - engineering and shuffling financial products isn't significant in real economic terms; it's cancerous), it was because I misunderestimated Bernanke's dedication to his craft of destruction and fiat madness, and that he'd get the results he has, mainly on the indexes (and to a much, much smaller amount on consumer/biz spending, which has grown very tepidly YoY).

But all Ben has done is pull activity forward, at a devastating cost, that will inevitably show up knocking on the door, and demand more than a pound of flesh.

He may turn out to be a destroyer of a decade or more of organic GDP growth. He has spread copious amounts of weed killer in order to prop up and perpetuate his mythical tale of 'green shoots.'

The price the economy and standard of living of Americans will pay for Bernanke's recklessness will be incredibly steep to the negative side.

Bernanke is no magician. He's a charlatan, fraud and shyster, and his great confidence scheme isn't even working, which is why the Fed is buying fantastically overvalued equities and has bought rancid MBS from those with an inside track on the Fed, and why the Fed is manipulating futures, and monetizing the U.S. deficit spending, because no one else will bid on any of those assets at their loco prices.

Ben has become the buyer of last resort and greatest [willing, as it's not his money] fool (so far), in an effort to paint the tape green on equity and debt markets, if he had any intentions of actually restoring organic economic growth he has failed, and the only question that remains is whether the Fed will successfully pawn off what is a catastrophe of a balance sheet onto the greatest fools of all they anticipate will not object, to wit, the U.S. taxpayers (with Congress' and the President's full aiding and abetting).

The immutable laws of physics and markets will re-interject themselves, no matter how insane and desperate and creative Ben S. Bernanke is. All Bernanke has done is angle the downward ramp at a much greater slope and set the table for an historically epic crash.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:04 | 956360 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Actually, it's working great, for those who are intended to be the beneficiaries. The S&P's relentless march up does not reflect your prosperity, but theirs. And you're supposed to believe in a trickle-down effect.  Crumbs from the masters' table. 

Mon, 02/14/2011 - 15:33 | 960515 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I'm actually fairly well-off, as my father started a robust business at a young age, and shunned all forms of debt (God rest his soul, and I'll never take credit for any of my success that he laid the foundation for).

But money is not my God, and this system is not working well by any metric. Even those who are corrupt and receiving monetary renumeration because they're on the inside will never enjoy what they may now view as an asset, but which will be their undoing.

I grew up with and am now surrounded by all sorts of people, including ones with a lot of money. Exceedingly few are happy. Psychologists refer to this as 'habituation,' and economists refer to it as the law of diminishing returns & marginal incremental utility.

 

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 02:02 | 955289 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

The equity rally since Aug 2010 has continued for longer than expected - similar to what happened after I began my warnings in early 2007 but the market decline didn't start until mid 2007.

Despite market intervention/QE, natural market forces can not be stopped - only delayed.

When the market does reassert control, the reaction (the overdue correction) may be even more extreme due to that delay.

Key global indexes are now extremely overextended and it's concerning.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 11:09 | 955621 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

With few exceptions when I quiz everyone from the old fart from Habitat for Humanity to the guys who do the landscaping, to the developer and just about everybody else - things are great, way better than last year and the economy is turning.  I commented before the malls, big boxes etc are packed and traffic heavy. The restaurants have line ups and real estate is moving in this fomerly depressed area. Even the fixed income crowd are feeling good about things. (that's not to day I agree, I don't  but it is what I am observing).

 

 

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 18:01 | 956353 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Where exactly are you located? I see the Mid-Atlantic area pretty clearly and once you leave the ivory tower of Washington, D.C, things have not improved much.  Sure it's not int he toilet, it's crawling up the sides.  But hardly out of the woods. Hiring is almost nil. Maybe it's like that where you are but a statement like that needs a geographic context.  

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