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Daily FX Retail Trader Contrarian Analysis 14th Oct
This daily report is designed to help traders find opportunities to trade against this group. The premise is very simple we are looking for 66% of retail traders to be trading either long or short a currency pair, we then look for opportunities to fade (trade against) this group. For example if 72.99% of traders are long the USD/CHF we look for opportunities to short that pair.
The pairs that we feel offer the highest opportunity for success are described in the Shortand Long Zones.
What’s New Today? Retail longs in USD/JPY and USD/CHF continue to be strong. Since this report started in mid September UJ has fallen 5.9% and so far it doesn't look like it will be stopping any time soon.
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Ok firstly let me say thanks, its a good report. But I also know that in regards to proper insto FX trading nobody has a clue how much trading is going on and where. Apart from UBS every bulge bracket bank claims they are the biggest FX trading house but nobody can ever verify it. With retail it would be even more obscure with bucketing etc from thousands on online 'brokers'.
It's just not possible to survey every forex trader to create this information. We use a pool of brokers to make an average we believe is representative of that group.
Sorry pivot farm, i just realised its your report. So how do you do it?
I mean, how does the guy who writes this report know what every spreadbetting/cfd/japanese housewife is doing. I can imagine that Saxotrader would be a good source of retail flows but there are thousands of brokers/quasi brokers who do the retail stuff. I wonder how anyone could convince all these people to give up their info..
Sorry, but where does this information come from exactly? I can't help thinking its gonna be a poorly reflecting sample especially if it doesn't include accurate figures of what Mrs Wantabe is doing..
Its collected from a pool of brokers. We use there numbers and create an average.
Yikes! short CHF and JPY for a month now. Is this a contra signal or not? Tis a money loser.
Not quite sure what you mean Bruce, are you looking at the futures? This information is based upon the forex pairs, USDJPY has been tanking hard! Its proven to be very accurate.
So Bruce, what do you do with Yen here? Looks like the ultimate high was 80.63 on 04/18/95, but was there for a day before weakening again dramatically.
If BOJ does not step in here, and soon, then it seems they will have lost any credibility.
On the other hand, why on earth would anyone be long Yen, and KEEP getting longer?!?