Daily FX Retail Trader Contrarian Analysis 1st Oct

Retail Traders as a herd are wrong…most of the time (sorry guys its true).

This daily report is designed to help traders find opportunities to trade against this group. The premise is very simple we are looking for 66% of retail traders to be trading either long or short a currency pair, we then look for opportunities to fade (trade against) this group. For example if 72.99% of traders are long the USD/CHF we look for opportunities to short that pair.

The pairs that we feel offer the highest opportunity for success are described in the Shortand Long Zones.

What’s New Today? No dramatic changes in positioning from yesterday, worth noting is that the EUR/CHF is bumping its head at Resistance and is also in the Short Zone.

Provided by Pivotfarm.com - The Home of Support and Resistance Trading 

Comments

[Bartanist]

If retail is always wrong, the question is "why"?

The easiest answer is because retail cannot control the market and the people/entities who want to steal retail's money can control the market.

This then leads to one obvious conclusion. The game is rigged against retail, regardless of fundaments or fundamental supply and demand so retail should under ALL circumstances stay out of the markets unless they want their money stolen.

In broad rising markets, the theft can be hidden under the rising tide. In an ugly market where margins a thin for the manipulators retail will always get clobbered... and people wonder why retail has exited equity and trading in general. The moth that gets too close to the flame gets burnt. Eventually you run out of moths.

[TexDenim]

How do I get this directly? Great data, but I too would like to know how it is aggregated. I mean, is this just a sample? How do you know that "all" retail USD/JPY is 77.84%? Is than an extrapolation from some smaller sample? Must be.

[covert]

if the majority were totally wrong, they would be out of business. contrarian views are often superior.

http://covert2.wordpress.com

[BeerGoggles]

Where's the dat from BTW?

The CFTC don't produce this.

I know some brokers do but that's the brokers data not the worldwide market, which isn't even centralized.