Daily Highlights: 10.12.09
- Asian stock markets mixed on Monday before a string of US earnings reports this week.
- Australia to expand lifeline for residential mortgage-backed securities by $7.2B.
- British PM Gordon Brown to announce sell-off of public assets.
- Central banks flush with record reserves are snubbing dollars in favor of euros, yen.
- China shares mixed on profit-taking and pressure of IPOs.
- Crude oil rises for third day as demand may increase on economic recovery.
- Oil rises above $72 as investors eye US company earnings this week.
- Derivatives regulation proposals in US House move closer to Obama's plan.
- Fed to hand out the first $4 billion stimulus funds to spread high-speed Internet connections.
- Kuwait backtracks on call to delay Gulf currency union
- New data suggest that foreclosures are rising in more expensive housing markets.
- Singapore raises 2009 economic forecast, strengthening regional recovery.
- Steel demand may rise 9.2% on rebound in US, Europe: World Steel.
- UK hopes to cut $25B from its debt pile by selling off a portfolio of state-owned assets.
- US Bond markets closed today for Columbus Day holiday.
- $16.8B UK pension fund of Dutch Shell Group, to start investing in alternative assets.
- Abu Dhabi's Aabar Invt takes a $328M stake in Brazilian unit of Banco Santander.
- American Fincl to recognize ~$50M Q4 gain on sale of shares of Verisk Analytics.
- Cnooc and a Ghanaian partner in talks about making a rival $4B bid, against Exxon.
- Comcast is said to favor keeping NBC Universal's Zucker, Management team.
- Consolidated Thompson to buy Wabush Mines JV from US Steel, ArcelorMittal and Cliffs Natural Resources for $120M.
- Hero Group in talks with Malaysia's Proton to start assembling automobiles in India.
- MetLife plans to divest its Taiwanese unit through an auction as soon as late October.
- Perot Systems acquires China operations of BearingPoint Inc.
- Philips posts unexpected profit in Q3 as consumer unit earnings more than double.
- RAK Properties is halting parts of a $3.3B project until market conditions improve.
- SEC investigates KB Home regarding "possible accounting and disclosure issues."
- Sun Bancorp to add to loan loss provision, incur other charges in Q3.
- Sunoco, Valero shut refineries - the most since early 1980s - as winter no match for fuel glut.
- Tata Motors raises $750M by selling global depositary shares, convertibles for repaying debt.
Recent Egan-Jones Ratings Actions
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EXXON MOBIL CORP (XOM)
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PEPSICO INC/NC (PEP)
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on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:31
#96323
Any takes on who will win the Nobel prize in Economics. I'm basically down to two obvious candidates; Fama ( given the market in the past 12 months, and the general state of global economy ) and Shiller ( given the context of the general state of the global economy )
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:47
#96335
What about Dick Bove?
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:48
#96336
Barney Frank for his work as Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:48
#96337
After Obamer got the peace prize it all is now irrelevant.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:42
#96345
i know Polish; the same happened when they awarded Friedman the Nobel in Economics; and finally made the prize irrelevant and a laughing stock when the gave it to Krugman.
this was more a question derived from interest to see what others think, than from reall giving a shit who wins it.
EDIT: FU junking motherfucker; fucking pussy
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:48
#96338
I vote Shiller... with the rationale that it has to be someone that is a "MSM household name"... and Fama isn't that person. We don't do anything these days unless it has been rubber stamped by the MSM... and Fama has not been making the appropriate appearances on CNBS :-)
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:55
#96343
It's out on Bloomberg:
Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson of the U.S. won the Nobel Economics Prize for their work on economic governance and the organization of cooperation, making Ostrom the first woman to win the prize.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:01
#96348
Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson
Who the HELL are they; and what the fuck have they done to deserve the Nobel ( actually it is not a Nobel at all ). A BIG FAT NOTHING; that's what. Just like most this years recipients .
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:08
#96354
Cheeky... clearly you did not get the memo... this year's winners must have done absolutely nothing of significance to win a Nobel Peace Prize :-)
I hate to see you keep getting your hopes up over and over like this and then have them crushed... first Obama and now Ostrom/Williamson :-)
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:16
#96359
Minnesota, i have abandoned hope decades ago; but i think this years choices mirror perfectly the state of the globe in the past 20 yrs; a heaven for mediocrity and mediocre minds. God ( or whatever ) have mercy on our souls cause i surely have none.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:33
#96367
you have to think about the mechanisms of this hyper-reality. because in the past there has been a correlation between great people and awards obviously you can now issue the award to someone and 'past correlation effect' will make them great in the future.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:55
#96344
MarketWatch First Take
Oct. 12, 2009, 8:47 a.m. EDT
Obama fails to win Nobel prize in economicsCommentary: Michael Moore, Timothy Geithner also passed over #var paragraph = content as Paragraph; #var textChunk = chunk as TextChunk; #// #// -->
By MarketWatch
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- In a decision as shocking as Friday's surprise peace prize win, President Obama failed to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences Monday.
While few observers think Obama has done anything for world peace in the nearly nine months he's been in office, the same clearly can't be said for economics.
The president has worked tirelessly since even before his inauguration to wrest control of the U.S. economy from failed free markets, and the evil CEOs who profit from them, and to turn it over to wise, fair and benevolent bureaucrats.
From his $787 billion stimulus package, to the cap and tax bill, to the seizures of General Motors and Chrysler, to the un-dead healthcare "reform" act, Obama has dominated the U.S., and therefore the global, economy as few figures have in recent years.
Yet the Nobel panel chose instead to award the prize to two obscure academics, -- Elinor Ostrom and Oliver Williamson -- one noted for her work on managing collective resources, and the other for his work on transaction costs. See full story.
Other surprise losers include celebrity non-economist filmmaker Michael Moore, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, and Larry Summers, head of the U.S. national economic council.
It is unclear whether the president will now refuse his peace prize in protest against the obvious slight to his real achievements this year.
-- Tom Bemis, assistant managing editor
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:46
#96333
The coming short squeeze in the dollar is going to be brutal for all dollar bears - including the central banks that have been shifting to euros, yen and gold.
Stage 1 works like this: (1) quietly go long dollar and short equities and commodities; (2) usual cabal crashes the equity and commodities markets with a selling spike; (3) issue huge margin calls on all the long hedgies, funds, etc., (4) forced liquidation crashes markets further as they try to raise margin (all must be in USD under international standard agreements); (4) extend Fed liquidity swaps only to preferred friendly central banks that toe the Fed line on the New World Order; (5) seize collateral of defaulting hedgies and pensions, etc.
Then comes the Stage 2: (1) "buy in" the defaulted collateral at the crashed low prices; (2) take profits on your long dollar positions; (3) push new pre-drafted emergency legislation through Congress preserving Fed ill-transparency, liberal derivatives regulation, etc.; (4) unwind swaps and start selling dollars and buying equities/commodities; (5) reinflate bubble with falling dollar . . .
Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:51
#96340
My short dollar position has worked pretty well for the past few months, however, I get the feeling your assessment could be correct. I will close the short position (I almost did on Friday) pretty quick here, but go LONG the dollar??? I don't think I have the stomach for it.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:00
#96347
I'm pretty certain of the mechanism/scenario, but I'm not at all sure on the timing. It could be this week, next week, January, whenever. The whole point if I'm right is that we no longer have markets the operate as markets, but just state capitalism that is used to fleece those who aren't cronies with a direct dial to Geithner.
The game is to import profits, export losses, until America is "great" again. Or at least can afford the next war.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 09:07
#96413
"The whole point if I'm right is that we no longer have markets the operate as markets, but just state capitalism that is used to fleece those who aren't cronies with a direct dial to Geithner."
+1000. I agree 1000%. May as well go to the casino, at least we get free drinks while we get fleeced.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 09:09
#96415
BTW. Dollar looking a bit green aound the gills today. Gold up again.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:07
#96350
This is the classic, tried and true. Amazing that most folks sell themselves on the idea this time will be different. My question is this. With the current play being in the rush to the fx bottom faze with the corresponding feedback loop formed and gaining looking to maintain "total" value in the world of relativism and rough equivalence what scope of move will be required this time to bring the loop to heel? NOTE: Especially with the status of the BRIC's and their position.
Thanks for the acquaintance with the classic M.O.. I believe this is your second or third such expression recently. You must be seeing some data points that indicate a turn may well be at hand. The cycle seems to be turning at a fair clip.
All The Best LB.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:47
#96383
Hindsight 20/20, this is exactly what happened fall 2008. Not really expect it to happen again this time, planet found out the hard way Americans are not to be trusted so our exposure to their casino should be limited and well hedged this time. Everyone folded to the "impending deflation" bluff last year because it was a cointoss at best and they had too much to lose. This time, the odds are stacked favourably and the bluffer turned out to be a crazy fish.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 09:44
#96457
The scenario is too obvious - did China not simply fire a warning shot by simply saying they will not honor the derivatives contracts? Much speculation about US / china cooperation, more than at face value, but the duration of such has a finite life. Whoever the US turns to, ends up isolating someone else (EUR forex). The Fact that France was mentioned among the cabal talking down the dollar is rich. Andy Xie article nails it - the entire thing is a bet that the Fed can drag the rest of the world along reluctantly until it can heel itself - exhorbitant privilage redefined
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:07
#96346
Crude moving up bullish for stocks even thought it's a direct tax on consumer spending.
100 bucks a barrel killed the economy when you had higher employment and credit, and here we are pushing towards $75, with 17% unemployment/underemployment, not to mention the credit contraction.
At some point soon a rising crude price will suddendly switch to being bearish for stocks.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:03
#96349
Any comments on Lakshman's(ECRI) forecast thru 6/10? ECRI's ability to forecast in an unbiased manner should not be overlooked. S&P used to be able to do that.....
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:05
#96353
Any Comments on Lakshman's (ECRI) position on the economy thru 6/10? Historically ECRI has been prescient to say the least.....
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:29
#96363
Who needs the ECRI's optimism when you have Brian Wesbury...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB2000142405274870329800457445940322210088...
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:34
#96368
Is this " tongue-in-cheek " article, or is Wesbury really that retarded. This is a genuine, not a rhetorical, question.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:41
#96373
Isn't Brian Wesbury, the guy that was on CNBC all the time in 2007/08 saying there was no recession.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:45
#96381
mdtrader; no idea man; i have never watched CNBC; but i googled his name and the pic that came up correlates with some videos i watched on YouTube; so it might be; would not surprise me given the degree of retardation-per-guest on CNBC ( its the highest in the industry )
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:48
#96384
Check this out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dUFzKliN4Y
Brian Wesbury confirms he didn't see a recession in Dec 07.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:54
#96390
LOL; listen to his rationale and his arguments; simply hilarious; another fine example of global educational system. Also, this clip is bookmarked for the collection i plan to put up on YouTube when the time is right. And, still he has a job. Unbelievable.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:47
#96376
Cheeky, Wesbury's article encapsulates the "thinking" American finance has become renown the world over for. Especially enjoyable is the contention that there is no free lunch. Coming from Wall Street that idea bears no semblance to the reality that over the past two years Wall Street has received or had committed to it more welfare that all other groups in the US over the last 20.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:48
#96385
its not even funny anymore, it became trivial. We are doing nothing except killing time waiting for the final leg down, the deadly shot, the final gram of blow, the last whore. Thats it.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 08:52
#96389
True that. Let's get to the part where the game ends and they try to force shit on us directly. That's the part I want to get to.
on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 14:05
#96722
That's the only conclusion I'm coming to.