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Unemployment down to 9.4%, NFP down only 247K. I bet revisions will not look pretty for this one.
Is U3 captured here?
U3 is 9.4%
U6 is 16.3%
People not in labor force jumped by like 600,000.
9.4 my ass.
I'm U6 since 3 weeks ago.
Bullshit Bluepill Numbers
Once you roll off the dole you're shoved into the 'shadow inventory' of humanity.
No, no, no people. Here is you're alusive green shoot. That's it, I'm out of gold, silver and farming ventures. I'm all in equities.
Thanks for the elusive contraindicator... capitulation.
only 32k birth/death model jobs cooked into this number (direct from the BLS web site)
Euro sliding, interest rates rising. Dunno how you get 247k when jobless claims have been up at 550k. Looks like the Obama cheer leading just went up a notch. They are desperate to reignite animal spirits otherwise their game is up. Expect more lies along the way.
Watch for market reversal.
This is a global game of "Last Man Standing", and the rules are "be the last man standing". Truth went on vacation a long time ago.
I don't know how serious you are about your comment - but this is really an interesting thought. However, if global financial markets are really a bullshit contest, which they probably are and have always been, the party should be over once a critical mass of players is short of cash. So as long as the system is sufficiently monetized, the game will continue, since everyone knows it's only game money and there is nothing but game money anywhere. The guy turning the table and declaring game over must have a plausible commercial alternative. What would that be?
I am completely serious about it. I have always viewed this event as a political one, with global political considerations given commanding consideration by the governments responding to them, including the responses by their respective central banks.
To some extent, global financial markets ARE a bullshit contest. But at their core, there must be some kind of functioning capital markets that allocate capital to industries and businesses that produce wealth. The party wil be over when we run out of capital, not cash. Cash can be printed ad infinitum while capital cannot; this means I disagree with your statement: "So as long as the system is sufficiently monetized, the game will continue, since everyone knows it's only game money and there is nothing but game money anywhere."
The plausible alternative is a (new) producing economy supporting formation of genuine additional capital.
Wednesday AIG share trading has to be investigated. This Radian earnings association is bs. AIG is a totally different animal to Radian in terms of scale, CDS activity and scope of govt involvement.
"AIG jumped 63 percent to $22 at 4 p.m. in New York, Fannie Mae soared 30 percent to 74 cents and Freddie Mac rallied 31 percent to 80 cents. AIG advanced after Radian Group Inc. reported $231.9 million in profit."
Did that clever house that hedged all its AIG exposure and didn't really need to govt to pay them out at par but took the money anyway get a heads up to take off the AIG hedges?
Not sure if or how this is related, but on the Fed’s Balance Sheet, Maiden Lane III (AIG’s CDO position) went from $27.4 billion in May to only $21.3 billion today. I guess the US taxpayer ate another $6 billion “for the good of all”.
Added more jobs through B/D Model in July 2009 than July 2008. Gotta account for that population growth!
RobotTrader, is that a Before/After graph of Viagra or Cialis?
Checkout the Forex markets this morning.
Wonder how the "GridBot" computers are doing????
does anyone really believe these numbers?
at this point, it's a pure propaganda campaign and every day more get indoctrinated/intimidated.
What really happened to Charlie at the meeting with GS?
A simple conversion. He was probably brought up to speed and informed all his criticism and skepticism was in fact true, but what was his goal???? to incite panic out there???
Charlie's not a stupid guy. He may not agree with everything, but Charlie's not the one trying to fix things. So, he agrees to shut up.
Unfortunately, "fixing things" first meant that the "fixers" fixed themselves first.
U6 still 16.8% (from BLS web site)
Guess who revised their estimate to 250K yesterday? Yeap 85 Broad. I wonder if they knew lol!
unfortunately, their idea of "fixing things" is now extending into areas blatantly illegal.
all in the name of stability.
Don't you guys ever get tired of being wrong? Of course you don't, because there is literally no way to convince you that you are wrong: if the numbers contradict your thesis about the state of the economy, you just say the numbers are cooked. If you don't like reality, you just say it's fake: that's a psychologically comforting way to go through life, since it means you know you're always right, but it's a pretty disastrous way to invest.
Up 2% last year - market minus 35% odd.
Up 15% YTD
In the short term this report is bullish from a trading perspective, in the long term the truth will rear it's ugly head and we just have to accept the fact that traders are going to rally the market on the headline number. I happen to live in the realm of reality and know the B/D model is total bullshit but there is nothing I can do convince the delusional otherwise no matter how absurd the model might be.
According to the numbers, the economy lost 247K jobs last month. That's LOST. For the unemployment rate to fall, either a lot folks killed themselves, hit 65 and retired, or just stopped looking for work. Less bad doesn't mean good. Less bad can still be bad. Folks here say the economy sucks, and nothing has contradicted that view, certainly not in the eyes of those unlucky 247K.
The market is a different story, and is under no obligation to reflect economic reality. Thus, folks here can scream about the data, but that doesn't mean they're not trading the long side. In fact, a lot of folks are taking their cynicism to the floor, avoiding companies with such antiquated things as earnings and growth, and instead loading up on the worst garbage still publicly traded. Might as well play along with the joke the market has become.
of course the data was shared. look how much more "credible" GS's prognostigations become.
and shaping public perception is the number one priority right now.
fortunately, Obama and the Dem's are completely on board with this plan because otherwise they would have NO HOPE of passing Health Care legislation or cap and trade or anything else.
it is a situation where normal checks and balances are not in place. Instead there is a multiplication of the problem occurring and when it crumbles, it's going to be unfriendly.
from the BLS web site
U6 remains @ 16.8%
Birth death only added 32K jobs to the July figures. This is a much smaller distortion than in the past year.
I'm neither bull nor bear & these look pretty good.
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