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Courtesy of Cameron Hanover
Daily Energy Evening Review for Tuesday (pdf)
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Easy there. We know the trade. Don't advertise it. Smiles
Well if they are still looking for a correlation with the snow and winter, here is one the sheep will find plausible. Or is it global warming that is creating oil volatility and driving down new construction while driving up manufacturing....and what about GM and inventory. Snow again? Are dollars frost resistant?
'Cause nobody knows.
I may have missed a good shorting opportunity in oil by being more disciplined this time but more will come along. Personally I am thinking there are tons of people like me.with.itchy trigger fingers who got their shorts on today at the peak of the million egyptian march. If we assume that an emergent property of the complex.system known as.the.financial market is self awarenes, and is a diabolical fiend as.described by jesse livermore, then it is going to take another leg up and.stay there for a few weeks to shake.out the early.shorts. I am going to.assume the diabolical nature of the market and.short this next leg up that has no rational reason to occur except that even now.the uso is not overbought and most indicators are still mostly neutral. An inventory surprise to the upside will catalyze the downdraft and then I will cover my.shorts.rather than eat them like I usually do. The additional assumption of evil conscious intent on the part of the market is useful. How else to explain how bull markets shake off most riders and how bear market players get eaten by the bear.
Put your shorts on when Brent hits $120.....
Reminds me of this one time I was at a bar (I think it was Mille Fleurs) in Rancho Santa Fe....said I was shorting oil and I was laughed at to the point of embarrassment. Well...
Oil was trading at $135.
I covered my shorts at $60
On the flip side, I went long in 2005 ($80 strike on the Dec 2008 futures) when oil was 40, cashed out at $115...
I wouldnt consider shorting until $120, and unlike your case, I would cover at $95
I can already see the headlines. Due to the riots in egypt, less people are using oil over there. That means oil prices are going down and our economy is doing better. Something like that right?
Please feel free to use the chart idea
Baltic Dry Index in subzero mode and Stock markets highs? come ón, WAKE UP¡¡¡¡¡
Hugo, like the graph. The whole market is a farce.
Question is, how long will this propped-up rally last until it crashes..
I cant find more Black Swans in the market, ive been Pomorized( shorts during 2010...so im fear to short this 2011...
I dont have the answer sir.
Also please Zerohedge Members,
Im not a Volatility Expert, please talk about the VIX weakness with current market conditions....unbelievable..thx
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