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Yep. The short term fundamentals suck for oil yet here we stay.
Can anyone shed some light on the 10 cent move down in Nat Gas? It came around 9:30 and all I could find were some somewhat unconvincing changes in weather models. Given the story in the Wall Street Journal and the recent downgrade by hedge funds, I think it is just more people piling into the short nat gas trade. However, given the fact that tropical activity is supposed to spike in the latter part of the next week, it might be a good time to start setting some type of a long position. Anyone else been following this.
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/08/one_meteorologists_view_of_ext.html
NatGas is still either ten cents above a buyprice, or thirty cents (4.1, 3.8) - the former is technical, the latter is historical. Either way, Demand is greater than it has been on average which somewhat mitigates the high storage levels. Going into winter, the price should rise; however, if weather does disrupt supply, then the gas can't be bought.!. so it's price falls - this does depend a lot on local conditions. Also, if Oil declines, which it could for any number of reasons, then utilities would eventually partially switch back for operational efficiency. ..one more thing, the pattern of price movement in NatGas seems to have changed recently, instead of jumps both ways there is more in the way of slow rises and sharp falls.
Having traded energy for many years,
I can put forth the hypothesis that oil and gas prices
often collapse during this quarter, as summer driving ends.
What I remember as the chief catalyst is that a lot of traders buy,
early in the summer, in anticipation of another Katrina,
and when she disappoints, they sell.
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