Daily Oil Market Summary: May 11

Courtesy of www.fmxconnect.com

Comments

[Hughe Crapper]

Fock me altar. I wouldn't short oil just now. China might be a driver, but overall demand factors weigh heavier.

Hogwash. Bankclerk. Bitch. (excuse I moi)

[Arkadaba]

I thought it was weird as well. I also thought it was strange that the DXY was going up was going up when the market was going up? I'm not a trader and just follow you guys for some real insight into the economy. But isn't there a traditional (past few years - lol) inverse relation between the equities and the dollar? What happened today?

[surfersd]

Watch for the total decoupling of the front month market. While the gyrations have gone in the rest of the world. Cushing OK the delivery point for WTI is about to reach its limit. The spec long or even trade long who doesn't have a place to put  put their barrel will be forced out spot crude could fall to 4  5  6 dollars undr the next nearby bye bye spot crude 

[parallaxview]

Solid point. There ain't muchstorage left. this will translate into a tax on all the buyers of USO in the end.

[Hawkeye Pierce]

Oil feels destined for a lower range.  The cost to carry it for six months as evidenced by the JUN00/Dec00 spread is $9 (contango).  Does it make sense to carry it for 13% of the price of the commodity with Cushing at record levels?  It could bounce a bit from here with continued demand, but if the soft underbelly of the  Euro continues to get tested, it's going to b e a lot more difficult to make the bull case.

One meatball surgeon's opinion.

[Hawkeye Pierce]

jinx

[slowtwitch]

Every once in a while it seems like oil likes to decouple itself from the usual things it tracks - which is either the s&p e-mini's or the eur/usd... and today was one of those days and it confused the hell out of me trying to trade it!

Thanks for the daily oil report - i'm glad i wasn't the only one confused with today's action.

I can tell you this - in the morning there was a technical breakout from a cup + handle but once it reached the target price there were a few short squeezes before it began it's decline...which was a tell for the rest of the market as it led everything else down with it.

that's my take anyway. Hope tmrw is easier to trade...

[Sudden Debt]

Lowering 2° dome. Now they are attaching also a pipe the drive warm water and antifreeze to stop the fire ice crystals from forming.

Methane Hydrate remains stable below 0°. After that.... 1 cubic meter of Mehtane Hydrate becomes 168 cubic meters. Try to push that trough a pipe that also has to transfer 5000 barrels a day. Mighty pipe...
To be honest, I wouldn't want to be on the ship that has the pipe connected to it.

THE MOST FUNNY THING!!!
The WIKI pages about Methane Hydrates where ALL CHANGED AFTER THE SPILL and LACK all the dangers that where previously linked to the fire ice!!

This only shows how they manipulate the media to keep their stock price up. The sollution won't work yet again, but PLAN 3 in the next 8 weeks will! and if that one also don't work...

[PhotonJohn]

Maybe the oil market is finally realizing that there no real growth only governmental growth. The austerity measures TBD will kill any growth expected in the EU and everyone is just waiting for China to blow. But then again in these crazy times who knows. Just when I think I get something everything changes.

[surfersd]

As mentioned the decoupling is starting the fund rolls end tomorrow so look for further liquidation of the front end. M/Z could hit $15 dollars ( I am short june vs dec so I am hoping) back in 09 g/n went to 17 under. Don't want to be greedy but my guess there is a lot more outright spec length now then then. This length has no idea what is going on in the cash market. oops

On another thinking that now that China is tightening credit look for crude to roll over flat price. I like crude in the long term, but the next couple months are going to be tough.

july august crude will probably collapse as well short that too, not to jinx myself.